Bayesian Risk Management for Equity-Linked Insurance

This paper describes how to apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to a regime switching model of the stock price process to generate a sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of the model. The MCMC output can be used to generate a sample from the predictive distribution of losses from equity linked contracts, assuming first an actuarial approach to risk management and secondly a financial economics approach. The predictive distribution is used to show the effect of parameter uncertainty on risk management calculations. We also explore model uncertainty by assuming a GARCH model in place of the regime switching model. The results indicate that the financial economics approach to risk management is substantially more robust to parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty than the actuarial approach.     

保险与企业风险管理

企业在日常生产经营活动中会遇到各种风险，开展和加强风险管理已成为维护企业生存与发展必不可少的工作，同时也是现代企业管理的一项重要内容，企业风险管理必须从认识风险、选择风险管理方法入手，其中，保险已成为企业开展风险管理的一项重要管理手段。企业必须正确地运用保险为自己的管理服务，同时，保险也要在企业管理中不断创新和发展。     

经济资本、风险测度与保险公司的价值管理

传统的风险管理模式已经不能适应保险公司发展的需要.经济资本管理已经成为国际保险业风险与资本管理领域的核心工具.保险公司经营的特殊性决定了保险公司要实施经济资本管理.经济资本可以广泛地应用于内部资本充足率管理和价值创造管理,为保险公司的关键决策提供依据.经济资本管理体系核心是准确计量风险、优化资本配置与评估风险调整绩效.中国保险业要实施经济资本管理,必须要统一认识,整合资源,优化组织结构,积极推动经济资本管理体系建设.     

流动性风险的稳健管理与监管准则

为了反映全球金融市场的最新发展,总结2007年金融市场动荡的经验教训,巴塞尔银行监管委员会对其2000年发布的《银行机构流动性管理的稳健操作》进行了重大调整。调整后的报告认为有效的流动性风险管理至关重要,有助于银行始终拥有满足现金流需要的能力,减少对金融系统所产生的负面影响;而金融市场在过去十年间的发展加剧了流动性风险及其管理的复杂性,国际清算银行在此基础上从流动性风险的治理、计量和管理,银行信息的公开披露、监管者的职责等几个方面提出了十七条流动性风险管理和监管的准则。     

Risk Management and Insurance-Related Journals: A Survey of Risk and Insurance Academics

This research provides an assessment of the utility and quality of risk management and insurance (RMI)-related journals using professorial expert opinion. Although Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)-produced citation counts and article impact factors are widely available and commonly used methods of journal comparison, they are limited to very few generally premier journals in any field, including RMI, leaving stakeholders with substantial gaps when benchmarking journal factors. We bridge this gap by comparing RMI faculty opinion of quality to SSCI assessments for 13 journals with results indicating general consistency across these measures. The expert opinion approach is extended to assess quality across a sample of 30 RMI-related publications, along with assigning journal categories delineated based on reported academic utility, contributing to RMI boundary definitions. Posthoc analysis indicates only modest influences for some individual, institutional, and journal-related factors on professorial perceptions, evidence that expert opinions are reliable measures of RMI journal utility and quality. Additionally, only modest differences are found in journal quality assessments by academics relative to the teaching versus research institutional mission of their employers, as well as across perceived individual teaching versus research role expectations. Thus, the expert opinion approach to evaluating utility and quality, coupled with regression and subsample analysis, aids RMI academics and other stakeholders in journal assessment and boundary definition issues. These contributions to the advancement of journal assessment methodologies in general may also prove useful across academic disciplines.     

Implicit Options in Life Insurance: Valuation and Risk Management

Participating life insurance contracts typically contain various types of implicit options. These implicit options can be very valuable and can thus represent a significant risk to insurance companies if they practice insufficient risk management. Options become especially risky through interaction with other options included in the contracts, which makes their evaluation even more complex. This article provides a comprehensive overview and classification of implicit options in participating life insurance contracts and discusses the relevant literature. It points out the potential problems particularly associated with the valuation of rights to early exercise due to policyholder exercise behavior. The risk potential of the interaction of implicit options is illustrated with numerical examples by means of a life insurance contract that includes common implicit options, i.e., a guaranteed interest rate, stochastic annual surplus participation, and paid-up and resumption options. Valuation is conducted using risk-neutral valuation, a concept that implicitly assumes the implementation of risk management measures such as hedging strategies.     

Assessment of Undergraduate Risk Management and Insurance Programs

Assessment of academic programs is most often viewed by the academic community as a burden on faculty and administrators. It's something you must do for accreditation or to satisfy funding agencies. However, whether done at the college or departmental level, assessment can be a value‐added process in striving for academic excellence. First, assessment requires the faculty to clearly define its program mission and objectives, along with learning outcomes that are consistent with its chosen mission and objectives. Second, assessment can be used to improve relations with students, alumni, employers, and other constituents. Finally, assessment as an ongoing process will result in a continuous improvement in curriculum and pedagogy. Assessment is at the very heart of the learning process, and all faculty have a duty to the scholarship of learning as an essential element of academic life.     

Educational Insights: A Hybrid Course in Risk Management and Insurance

Universities and colleges continue to face constraints related to classroom space and faculty time, thus increasing the need to consider options such as hybrid courses that can leverage available resources. This article discusses the benefits of a hybrid course, as well as its design and implementation at a large, public university. In addition, for universities that use the introduction to risk and insurance course as a significant course for attracting majors, we identify the benefits for students from the use of hybrid courses, such as the variety of materials and activities utilized, as well as the flexibility in scheduling. This information may be useful in marketing the course so that it will be immediately attractive to students.     

Three Practical Assignments for the Introductory Risk Management and Insurance Student

I have developed, used, and refined an auto quote assignment, a life quote assignment, and a retirement analysis assignment that seem to communicate certain concepts well to the typical student enrolled in a risk management and insurance principles course. These assignments consist of worksheets requiring Internet research and a series of questions based on the answers discovered. Additionally, a short class discussion follows each of the three assignments to further ensure that students have achieved the primary learning objectives of each assignment. In their current form, these assignments are practical and require relatively minimal student and instructor time. Each could easily be expanded to accommodate students with advanced understanding and capability.     

Insurance Market Effects of Risk Management Metrics

We extend the classical analysis on optimal insurance design to the case when the insurer implements regulatory requirements (Value-at-Risk). Presumably, regulators impose some risk management requirement such as VaR to reduce the insurers’ insolvency risk, as well as to improve the insurance market stability. We show that VaR requirements may better protect the insured and improve economic efficiency, but have stringent negative effects on the insurance market. Our analysis reveals that the insured are better protected in the event of greater loss irrespective of the optimal design from either the insured or the insurer perspective. However, in the presence of the VaR requirement on the insurer, the insurer's insolvency risk might be increased and there are moral hazard issues in the insurance market because the optimal contract is discontinuous.     

Two Classroom Simulations in Financial Risk Management and Insurance

ABSTRACT: Few classroom experiences provide as much educational value as a simulation exercise. A properly structured simulation provides students with the motivation to learn, the opportunity to explore strategies in an environment conducive to experimentation, and the immediate instructional benefit of watching their decisions affect the outcome of the collective simulation experience. This article describes the procedure and relative success of two classroom simulations for students in introductory and intermediate risk management and insurance courses. The first simulation replicates the risk management function of futures contracts through the use of hypothetical traders in the corn market with different risk management needs. The corn futures trading simulation achieves several goals for an introductory course in risk management and insurance: (1) students learn the importance of capital market risk management mechanisms; (2) students understand the transfer of risk among hedgers and speculators; and (3) students receive exposure to the concept that risk management is both possible and necessary for both speculative and pure risks. The second simulation mimics the operation of the market for homeowners insurance. By dividing students into consumer groups and insurer groups, participants experience the effect of chance events and insurance purchase decisions on their wealth. Small groups of upper‐level students act as insurers, and must price, package, and sell their product with a limited amount of surplus. Introductory students serve as consumers with limited resources who must survey the market and decide what product to buy and from whom. The competitive element and relatively unregulated market provide students with the incentive to innovate in a market for a common type of insurance and also demonstrates the need for some amount of insurance regulation. These simulations supply a simple way to enhance students' understanding of important basic concepts in a format that provides a welcome break from the traditional lecture format.     

2002年以来全球保险业的发展与风险管理

2000年以来,全球经济、政治状况和自然环境都发生了未曾预料的重大变化,如新经济泡沫破灭、信用风险接连暴露、巨灾损失逐年增大、局部战争连续升级、恐怖主义新的威胁等,给全球保险业造成了重大损失,彻底打破了保险业原有的发展规律、运行轨迹和运作模式,给保险业带来了全新的经营风险,使保险业面临前所未有的风险管理挑战.     

我国保险业风险管理现状及对策

论述了我国保险业风险管理水平较低,重视不够,只重视内生风险不重视外生风险等问题的现状。探讨了以上不足对我国保险业存在的影响及其形成的原因,指出我国保险业如何应对这些问题的方法和策略。     

保险资产管理公司风险管理研究

先后经历了无序和管制阶段,从1999年的<保险公司投资证券投资基金管理暂行办法>,到2004年的<保险机构投资者股票投资管理暂行办法>,再到2007年7月的<保险资金境外投资管理暂行办法>,保险资金运用渠道逐步拓宽.     

Risk Management and Firm Value: Evidence from Weather Derivatives

This paper shows that active risk management policies lead to an increase in firm value. To identify the effect of hedging and to overcome endogeneity concerns, we exploit the introduction of weather derivatives as an exogenous shock to firms’ ability to hedge weather risks. This innovation disproportionately benefits weather‐sensitive firms, irrespective of their future investment opportunities. Using this natural experiment and data from energy firms, we find that derivatives lead to higher valuations, investments, and leverage. Overall, our results demonstrate that risk management has real consequences on firm outcomes.     

财产保险公司对地震保险的承保管控和风险控制分析

本文通过收集全球地震灾害发生的数据,归纳出全球地震的变化趋势和规律。在此基础上概述了我国地震活动规律和地震带分布特征,并引用稳定分布函数分析了地震损失具有右偏、厚尾、长尾特性,解释了我国地震保险供需矛盾的原因。最后描述了我国财产保险公司对地震风险的控制思路,提出了由政府干预解决市场失灵问题的具体建议。