POLITICS AND THE NEW RESOURCE ECONOMICS

Two competing theories generally used, at least implicitly, to justify and analyze public resource management are scientific management and pluralism. We briefly review these theories and compare them to the new resource economics, an emerging body of theory which revises resource economics by introducing concepts from Austrian economics, property rights theory, and public choice. We argue that the new resource economics is superior to these traditional theories and then present specific policy proposals for the national forests, wilderness areas, and the public grazing lands. We also criticize new resource economists for not clearly distinguishing ideology from science, for emphasizing efficiency as a criterion for policy analysis, and for lacking political strategies for implementing their proposals     

THE NUMBER OF FIRMS AND THE POLITICS OF STRATEGIC TRADE POLICY

Incorporating home firms' lobbying in a country into a third market model of oligopoly, this paper studies how such lobbying affects the government's strategic export policy scheme. We pay special attention to the home firms' lobby formation and its effect on domestic welfare. The home firms can organize a lobby more easily when the number of their rival foreign firms is larger than that of them, and/or when the government is overly concerned with political contribution relative to domestic welfare. The strategic export policy under lobbying cannot improve the domestic welfare, which depends on the number of firms, the government's concern about political donation and the level of socially wasted lobbying costs.     

MEASURING THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES: SOME LESSONS FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE

This article quantifies the comparative performance of China in several dimensions. Firstly, it shows that China's move from a command to a market economy was less abrupt and more successful than that of 29 other economies making a similar transition. Secondly, while official estimates show annual GDP growth of 9.6 percent in 1978–2003, this is reduced to 7.9 percent after adjustment for exaggeration of industrial performance and growth in non-material services. Thirdly, as the exchange rate understates China's achievement, a purchasing power parity (PPP) converter is necessary to measure comparative level of performance. Our PPP converter shows that China in 2005 was the world's second largest economy, with a GDP about 80 percent of the U.S. It is assumed that China will have overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest economy before 2015. Until recently, the World Bank estimate of the PPP for China was close to that of Maddison, but the Bank's new estimate for 2005 shows Chinese GDP about half this level. The Bank's new estimates for China and other Asian countries are not plausible, and this paper advances several reasons for rejecting them. Finally, energy use per head of population is a good deal smaller than that of the U.S., and its total energy use for a much bigger population is likely to be somewhat smaller than that of the U.S. in 2030. However, heavy dependence on dirty coal means that it will have bigger carbon emissions than the U.S. This is a major problem as Beijing and other big cities already have severe pollution problems.     

近20年美国对外直接投资结构的变化及影响因素分析

本文着重分析了20来美国对外直接投资的行业结构和地区的特征和变化。研究表明,美国对外直接投资的空间结构相对稳定,即以欧洲等发达国家和地区为主;而行业结构变化明显,由以制造业为主转向以金融、保险和房地产业为主。对外直接投资的行业结构和地区结构是相互联系制约的,不同行业的比较优势与特定地区的区位优势相结合,才能产生投资效益。跨国公司对外投资区位的选择,是根据其投资战略并结合自身的竞争优势和东道国的区位优势,经过综合决策而确定的。     

INDUSTRY TRADE BALANCE AND DOMESTIC MERGER POLICY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM U.S. MERGER POLICY FOR MANUFACTURING SECTORS

The literature on antitrust in an open-economy setting is inconclusive with respect to the role played by trade balance on the tenor of domestic merger policy. Using a panel dataset composed of U.S. merger reviews by industrial sector over the 1982–2001 period, I empirically test the impact of sectoral trade balance on the level of antitrust scrutiny. The results suggest that larger trade balances lead to more vigorous antitrust scrutiny; thus "strategic" merger policy does not appear evident, and consumer surplus appears to guide U.S. merger policy even under the lure of international competitive gains.     

U.S. SHIPPING SUBSIDIES AND OCEAN SHIPPING OF PETROLEUM: POLICY CHOICES

United States oil imports are predominantly carried in non-U.S. ships, a fact that some interpret as an energy security problem whose solution lies in increasing federal assistance to U.S. shipbuilding and shipping industries. This paper examines three options (one regulatory, two budgetary) for such federal assistance. Examination of the options comprises estimates of relative costs, consequences for traditional U.S. maritime goals, and implications for national security. The options are found to differ significantly in respect to relative cost and capacity to meet military security needs. As background, the paper also analyzes the costs of U.S. shipbuilding and shipping industries relative to their foreign counterparts. It thereby indicates why, and how much, federal assistance would be required to satisfy national security goals. The paper concludes that the regulatory policy option (cargo preference) has the highest relative cost and is the least effective for meeting national security goals.     

AN EVALUATION OF SUBJECTIVE POVERTY DEFINITIONS: COMPARING RESULTS FROM THE U.S. AND THE NETHERLANDS

In this paper, results of applying the subjective definition of poverty, introduced by Goedhart et al. (1977), in the U.S. and the Netherlands are compared. This definition focuses on the monetary amounts which people consider necessary to make ends meet for their households as provided in response to the Minimum Income Question (MIQ). National data from both countries in the early 1980s are analyzed. In regressions of reported minimum income, corrections are made for the omission of income components and selective non-response. For the first time the relationship between fixed expenditures and the MIQ is examined. Factors significantly related to reported minimum income include household income, household composition, age, education, sex, region, fixed expenditures, and whether the household experienced recent income changes. The income elasticity appears to be smaller in the U.S. than in the Netherlands, while the effects of other socioeconomic factors are greater. On average, the resulting subjective income thresholds are above official poverty lines, but more so in the U.S. than in the Nerherlands. Whether thresholds based on answers to MIQs should be regarded as poverty lines remains open to question.     

REFORMING THE FED: ITS INDEPENDENCE AND LESSONS FROM HUMPHREY-HAWKINS

The last session of Congress witnessed renewed calls for reforming the Federal Reserve System so as to better coordinate monetary and fiscal policies. This paper examines how the current institutional structure, established by the Humphrey-Hawkins Act of 1978, performed when the supply-side tax cuts were implemented during 1981 and 1982. The findings reveal that authorities barely discussed the necessary policy coordination at the Humphrey-Hawkins hearings. Further, the record reveals that Fed Chairman Volcker refused to utilize the Fed's independence to publicly oppose the supply-side tax cuts.     

SOME INEFFICIENCY IMPLICATIONS OF GENERATIONAL POLITICS AND EXCHANGE*

This paper explores the implications of generational selfishness in a model in which each generation has its own government. Such selfish generational governments will potentially distort the economy along a number of dimensions. One is the monopolization of factor supplies; another is the under- or overprovision of durable public goods. We demonstrate that selfish generations may place sizable marginal taxes on their factor supplies in order to monopolize their factor markets. We also show that selfish generations will provide inefficient levels of durable public goods both at the local and national levels. Finally, we demonstrate that generational inefficiencies can arise even in models of cooperative bargaining because of the first-mover advantage of earlier generations.     

INFLATION TARGETING AND THE ECONOMY: LESSONS FROM CANADA'S FIRST DECADE

Inflation targeting has become the centerpiece of the monetary policy framework in a number of industrial countries and emerging economies. The first part of this article examines the Canadian experience with inflation targeting since its introduction in early 1991 and various issues that require resolution in establishing such a framework. It also examines the way inflation targets deal with demand, price, and productivity shocks. The second part focuses on Canada's economic performance during the 1990s. Factors other than monetary policy - most notably private sector restructuring and the fiscal situation in the first half of the decade - played an important role in the sluggishness of the recovery from the recession of 1990–91. Trend growth in Canada during the 1990s was lower than in earlier periods and than U.S. trend growth over the same period. The article examines the role of such factors as productivity growth and participation rates in explaining the differences. I conclude that a good monetary policy is necessary but not sufficient for good economic outcomes.     

基于创意产业兴起背景下的湖南动漫产业发展

动漫产业作为创意产业的典型代表,集视觉艺术、创意设计、数字网络、立体传播、时尚娱乐、创意生活等特征于一体,是又一个新的经济增长点。文章在借鉴发达国家和地区发展创意产业成功经验的基础上,分析了湖南动漫产业发展的现状和制约因素,提出了加速发展的对策和措施。     

THE MEASUREMENT OF HOUSING OUTPUT: U.S. AND SOVIET CASE STUDIES

This paper examines the measurement of the output of the Housing industry in real GNP accounts of the U.S., the Soviet Union, and selected OECD countries. These real GNP accounts make use of quite different Housing indexes, based on different types of data. This paper's major empirical finding is that the (measured) growth rate of Housing output can be extremely sensitive to the type of index used.
After reviewing the concept of housing quality, the paper presents U.S. and Soviet case studies. The BEA and the CIA do not use identical procedures to measure Housing output for the U.S. and the Soviet Union: the BEA measures many more aspects of housing quality improvements than the CIA does. This difference in the two agencies' procedures increases the growth rate of the US. Real Estate industry relative to the growth rate of the Soviet Housing industry. The idea behind the two case studies is to remeasure Housing output far the Soviet Union (U.S.) using an index that approximates the BEA (CIA) index. The purpose of these studies is the calculation of numerical magnitudes: to what degrees are the levels and growth rates of Housing sensitive to the type of index that is used. The calculations for the U.S. are useful because they show the important role of housing quality growth in the U.S., and because they make the magnitudes reported for the Soviet Union more credible. The Soviet case study provides numerical support for the proposition that the post-WWII growth rate of Soviet housing quality has been considerable and exceeds the growth rate implicit in the CIA output figures.