U.S. DIRECT INVESTMENT TO MEXICO: POLITICS, ECONOMICS, AND NAFTA

The goal of this paper is to determine whether the recent opening of the Mexican economy caused a significant change in the investment behavior of U.S. multinational firms. The first finding is that a real investment function that explained the data well through 1989 shifted dramatically thereafter. Tests indicate that the probable causes of this shift were (i) the relaxation of Mexican restrictions on direct investment after 1989 and (ii) anticipatory investment behavior after the positive conclusion of the NAFTA negotiations.     

HIRING FROM HIGH‐RISK POPULATIONS: LESSONS FROM THE U.S. MILITARY

In this study, we evaluate the performance of waivered recruits in the U.S. military. Unlike the private sector, the military has formal standards for identifying ideal recruits and uses a formal screening process to determine those within risky populations who are most likely to succeed. (Recruits who make it through the screening process are issued a waiver.) The military's establishment of waiver categories and its tracking of waiver status provide us with a case study for determining whether such risk‐identification strategies work. Using FY99–FY08 service‐level waiver and personnel data, we evaluate whether the military recruiting strategy has been successful and whether firms should consider adopting similar screening mechanisms. We estimate the effect of waiver status on attrition and promotion, our primary performance indicators, after controlling for other quality indicators. We find that waivered recruits, on the whole, are not particularly poor performers, although their inherent riskiness does vary by service and by waiver type. (JEL J45, M51, J23)     

POLITICS AND THE NEW RESOURCE ECONOMICS

Two competing theories generally used, at least implicitly, to justify and analyze public resource management are scientific management and pluralism. We briefly review these theories and compare them to the new resource economics, an emerging body of theory which revises resource economics by introducing concepts from Austrian economics, property rights theory, and public choice. We argue that the new resource economics is superior to these traditional theories and then present specific policy proposals for the national forests, wilderness areas, and the public grazing lands. We also criticize new resource economists for not clearly distinguishing ideology from science, for emphasizing efficiency as a criterion for policy analysis, and for lacking political strategies for implementing their proposals     

RESALE PRICE MAINTENANCE AND DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFICIENCY: SOME LESSONS FROM THE PAST

Resale price maintenance (RPM) has had a history similar to that of a religious war, with the legal status shifting as the various sects have had more or less influence over the courts and the political arenas. Both the RPM and anti-RPM missionaries have overstated their cases. In theory, RPM can have both procompetitive and anticompetitive effects. Unfortunately, most of the dispute has been theoretical (theological); both sides have provided minimal empirical support for their theological conclusions. The empirical evidence, though sketchy, shows both procompetitive and anticompetitive instances of RPM. In particular, history warns that strongly organized interest groups tend to use the political process to enforce abuses of a distributional restraint that theoretically might otherwise have primarily procompetitive effects. The theoretical and empirical record does not support either per se legality or illegality for RPM in all instances. In some situations, such as for small firms in unconcentrated wholesale and retail markets and for new entrants, the probability of anticompetitive effects is negligible. In other situations, the evidentiary burden of demonstrating either the likelihood of anticompetitive effects, or of their absence, would be practically insurmountable in a litigation context. Rule-of-reason litigation, then, also seems to be an unwise policy choice. On balance, considering the economic, political, and legal constraints, we recommend continuing the current per se illegal standard, but with exceptions for clearly defined instances in which the probability of anticompetitive effects is minimal.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF U.S. FOREIGN AID: AMERICAN LEGISLATORS AND THE DOMESTIC POLITICS OF AID

Are there systematic political economy factors that shape preferences for foreign aid, a key component of American foreign policy? We analyze votes in the House of Representatives from 1979 to 2003 that would increase or decrease foreign aid by considering the political, economic, and ideological characteristics of legislators and their districts. To understand who supports and opposes foreign aid, we utilize theories of foreign economic policy preferences. By examining different types of aid policy, we show that domestic politics and especially the distributional consequences of economic aid can matter. The economic characteristics of a district and its left–right ideological predispositions influence support for aid in a systematic fashion over the nearly 25‐year period. Stolper–Samuelson models along with political ideology can help explain legislators' preferences toward aid.     

THE NUMBER OF FIRMS AND THE POLITICS OF STRATEGIC TRADE POLICY

Incorporating home firms' lobbying in a country into a third market model of oligopoly, this paper studies how such lobbying affects the government's strategic export policy scheme. We pay special attention to the home firms' lobby formation and its effect on domestic welfare. The home firms can organize a lobby more easily when the number of their rival foreign firms is larger than that of them, and/or when the government is overly concerned with political contribution relative to domestic welfare. The strategic export policy under lobbying cannot improve the domestic welfare, which depends on the number of firms, the government's concern about political donation and the level of socially wasted lobbying costs.     

MEASURING THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES: SOME LESSONS FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE

This article quantifies the comparative performance of China in several dimensions. Firstly, it shows that China's move from a command to a market economy was less abrupt and more successful than that of 29 other economies making a similar transition. Secondly, while official estimates show annual GDP growth of 9.6 percent in 1978–2003, this is reduced to 7.9 percent after adjustment for exaggeration of industrial performance and growth in non-material services. Thirdly, as the exchange rate understates China's achievement, a purchasing power parity (PPP) converter is necessary to measure comparative level of performance. Our PPP converter shows that China in 2005 was the world's second largest economy, with a GDP about 80 percent of the U.S. It is assumed that China will have overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest economy before 2015. Until recently, the World Bank estimate of the PPP for China was close to that of Maddison, but the Bank's new estimate for 2005 shows Chinese GDP about half this level. The Bank's new estimates for China and other Asian countries are not plausible, and this paper advances several reasons for rejecting them. Finally, energy use per head of population is a good deal smaller than that of the U.S., and its total energy use for a much bigger population is likely to be somewhat smaller than that of the U.S. in 2030. However, heavy dependence on dirty coal means that it will have bigger carbon emissions than the U.S. This is a major problem as Beijing and other big cities already have severe pollution problems.     

近20年美国对外直接投资结构的变化及影响因素分析

本文着重分析了20来美国对外直接投资的行业结构和地区的特征和变化。研究表明，美国对外直接投资的空间结构相对稳定，即以欧洲等发达国家和地区为主；而行业结构变化明显，由以制造业为主转向以金融、保险和房地产业为主。对外直接投资的行业结构和地区结构是相互联系制约的，不同行业的比较优势与特定地区的区位优势相结合，才能产生投资效益。跨国公司对外投资区位的选择，是根据其投资战略并结合自身的竞争优势和东道国的区位优势，经过综合决策而确定的。     

FREE TRADE AREAS AND RULES OF ORIGIN: ECONOMICS AND POLITICS

Incorporating an intermediate input into a simple small-union general-equilibrium model, this paper first develops the welfare economics of preferential trading under the rules of origin (ROO) and then demonstrates that ROOs can improve the political viability of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Two interesting outcomes are derived. First, a welfare-reducing FTA that was rejected in the absence of ROOs can become feasible in the presence of these rules. Second, a welfare- improving FTA that was rejected in the absence of ROOs can be endorsed in their presence, but upon endorsement it can become welfare inferior relative to the status quo.     

INDUSTRY TRADE BALANCE AND DOMESTIC MERGER POLICY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM U.S. MERGER POLICY FOR MANUFACTURING SECTORS

The literature on antitrust in an open-economy setting is inconclusive with respect to the role played by trade balance on the tenor of domestic merger policy. Using a panel dataset composed of U.S. merger reviews by industrial sector over the 1982–2001 period, I empirically test the impact of sectoral trade balance on the level of antitrust scrutiny. The results suggest that larger trade balances lead to more vigorous antitrust scrutiny; thus "strategic" merger policy does not appear evident, and consumer surplus appears to guide U.S. merger policy even under the lure of international competitive gains.     

U.S. SHIPPING SUBSIDIES AND OCEAN SHIPPING OF PETROLEUM: POLICY CHOICES

United States oil imports are predominantly carried in non-U.S. ships, a fact that some interpret as an energy security problem whose solution lies in increasing federal assistance to U.S. shipbuilding and shipping industries. This paper examines three options (one regulatory, two budgetary) for such federal assistance. Examination of the options comprises estimates of relative costs, consequences for traditional U.S. maritime goals, and implications for national security. The options are found to differ significantly in respect to relative cost and capacity to meet military security needs. As background, the paper also analyzes the costs of U.S. shipbuilding and shipping industries relative to their foreign counterparts. It thereby indicates why, and how much, federal assistance would be required to satisfy national security goals. The paper concludes that the regulatory policy option (cargo preference) has the highest relative cost and is the least effective for meeting national security goals.     

REAL ESTATE AND THE GREAT CRISIS: LESSONS FOR MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY

Credit conditions have caused real estate booms and busts, owing to an underpricing of credit risk aided by regulatory arbitrage and shadow financing. Across countries, real estate price and credit bubbles have reflected not only inelastic land supply and thin trading, but also the amplification of shocks via backward‐looking price expectations and financing based on distorted prices. Macroprudential lessons from the Great Crisis include preventing excess real estate financing and limiting the amplification and correlation of risks. Nonetheless, the costs and benefits of recent regulations require re‐evaluation amid an ongoing need to address correlated risks from shadow financing and securitization. (JEL G28, E3, R31, R33, R38)     

ADAPTIVE LEARNING AND MONETARY POLICY IN AN OPEN ECONOMY: LESSONS FROM JAPAN

Abstract. Motivated by Japan's economic experiences in recent decades, we incorporate adaptive learning into an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the volatility and welfare impact of alternative monetary policies. Comparing four Taylor‐styled policy rules that reflect Japan's monetary policy debates, we first show that imperfect knowledge and the associated learning process induce higher volatility in the economy and that explicit exchange rate stabilization is unwarranted. Moreover, contrary to results under the rational expectation paradigm, we find that while tight inflation controls raise output volatility, they can improve overall welfare under learning by smoothing inflation fluctuations.     

AN EVALUATION OF SUBJECTIVE POVERTY DEFINITIONS: COMPARING RESULTS FROM THE U.S. AND THE NETHERLANDS

In this paper, results of applying the subjective definition of poverty, introduced by Goedhart et al. (1977), in the U.S. and the Netherlands are compared. This definition focuses on the monetary amounts which people consider necessary to make ends meet for their households as provided in response to the Minimum Income Question (MIQ). National data from both countries in the early 1980s are analyzed. In regressions of reported minimum income, corrections are made for the omission of income components and selective non-response. For the first time the relationship between fixed expenditures and the MIQ is examined. Factors significantly related to reported minimum income include household income, household composition, age, education, sex, region, fixed expenditures, and whether the household experienced recent income changes. The income elasticity appears to be smaller in the U.S. than in the Netherlands, while the effects of other socioeconomic factors are greater. On average, the resulting subjective income thresholds are above official poverty lines, but more so in the U.S. than in the Nerherlands. Whether thresholds based on answers to MIQs should be regarded as poverty lines remains open to question.     

THE WEALTH AND ASSET HOLDINGS OF U.S.-BORN AND FOREIGN-BORN HOUSEHOLDS: EVIDENCE FROM SIPP DATA

SIPP data are used to analyze the wealth of the U.S. foreign-born population. We find that the median wealth level of U.S.-born couples is 2.5 times the median of foreign-born couples, while the median wealth level of U.S.-born singles is three times that of foreign-born singles. Further, there is a great deal of diversity in wealth within the immigrant population. Diversity in net worth manifests itself primarily in source-region differences, while entry-cohort is more closely related to portfolio choices. Established immigrants hold less and recent immigrants hold more financial wealth. An opposite pattern emerges with respect to real estate equity.