The dynamics of fiscal policy in an open economy

This paper extends the work of Blinder and Solow, analyzing the dynamics of fiscal policy, to a small open economy having a fixed exchange rate. The model is developed under the assumption that domestic and foreign bonds are imperfect substitutes. The stationary properties of this system are discussed and it is shown how, in general, equilibrium requires both the government budget to be balanced and the balance of payments on current account to be in equilibrium. The stability of the system is analyzed under two extreme assumptions: zero capital mobility and perfect capital mobility. A significant result of the analysis is to show how the appropriate choice of the policy parameters, describing the mode of deficit financing and sterilization policies, is of central importance to the stability of the model.     

National welfare in an open economy in the presence of foreign-owned factors of production

In the presence of foreign-owned factors of production in the economy, the effect of trade policy changes on national welfare needs to take into account the possible redistributive effect between foreign-owned and domestic factors. Therefore, an otherwise welfare-improving trade liberalization may paradoxically worsen national welfare. This paper analyzes this important, new area of trade theory and establishes the condition under which this paradox of immiserizing trade liberalization arises. The analysis is also applicable to analyzing the effects of external tariff variation in customs unions, with full internal factor mobility, on member countries' welfare.     

The yield curve in a small open economy

Long-term nominal interest rates in a number of inflation-targeting small open economies have tended to be strongly correlated with those of the United States. This observation has recently led support to the view that, in these economies, the long-end of the yield curve has decoupled from its short-end and naturally to a concern that monetary policy may have lost some of its autonomy. We set up and estimate a two-country small open economy model in which the expectations hypothesis and uncovered interest rate parity hold to study the co-movement of long-term nominal interest rates of different currencies. We show that differences in the persistence of domestic and foreign disturbances, a hypothesis for which we find support in recent data, can explain the observed pattern of correlations. These correlations are not evidence of weaker monetary policy.     

Time consistency of monetary policy in the open economy

This paper shows that in an open economy time-consistency problems are created not only by nominal government debt, but also by nominal private debt to foreigners. Given any external nominal debt, inflation redistributes wealth between domestic residents and foreigners. A government that cares about the welfare of its residents will be tempted to inflate whenever it or its residents have issued nominal debt to foreigners. An analysis of the U.S. net investment position shows that these international considerations have become increasingly relevant for the United States, because the recent external deficits have largely been financed in nominal terms.     

Optimal borrowing constraints and growth in a small open economy

Chinese high growth has been accompanied by government restrictions on international borrowing (capital controls). In this paper, we ask: are such restrictions a useful policy tool to facilitate growth? We provide a theory of borrowing constraints on households as a tool to correct a learning-by-doing externality. Borrowing constraints operate as a policy tool through two channels: (i) increasing labor supply and (ii) reallocating labor towards traded goods. We find that welfare gains are closest to that of the First-Best Planner allocation when the externality is not too large. We compute the sequence of optimal constraints along the growth path and show how the use of this policy tool contributes to repressed wages, current account balance, and slow real exchange rate appreciation.     

Public inputs and land taxes in a small open economy

In this paper we examine the issues of gains from trade and the welfare effects of trade policies in the presence of public inputs. Based on the formulation of Negishi (Journal of Public Economics 2 (1973), 231–40), we assume that public inputs are financed by a land tax scheme. We show that the welfare effects of trade policies and the desirability of trade depend crucially on the rules of public input provision reflecting different conjectures of the government.     

Expectations,monetary policy rules,and macroeconomic stability: Analysis of an open economy with flexible exchange rates

This paper makes use of a dynamic model of an open economy with flexible exchange rates to examine the dynamic characteristics of the system for different specifications of monetary authority behavior. The model contains dynamic adjustment equations for both output and prices. Two policy rules are examined: (a) maintaining a constant nominal money supply growth, and (b) maintaining a constant nominal interest rate. With the former the system is found to be self-equilibrating. The latter, however, could easily give rise to self-perpetuating disequilibrium situations. In both cases expectations play a crucial role in the adjustment process.     

Tourism development,environmental pollution and economic growth: A theoretical analysis

We develop a two-sector dynamic model of a less-developed economy with an imported traded good sector and with a non-traded tourism service sector serving international tourists. Revenue earned from tourism finances imports. The model takes care of the negative effect of tourism development on environmental pollution. Environmental quality and capital stock accumulates over time. We analyse comparative steady-state effects and show that tourism development raises the level of capital stock as well as national income but lowers the quality of environment in the new steady-state equilibrium leading to a relative expansion (contraction) of the capital (labour) intensive non-tourism (tourism) sector. Pollution abatement policy produces a completely opposite effect; and so tourism development policies are to be accompanied by pollution abatement policies in order to ensure green growth.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy with limited commitment

We introduce limited commitment into a standard optimal fiscal policy model in small open economies. We consider the problem of a benevolent government that signs a risk-sharing contract with the rest of the world, and that has to choose optimally distortionary taxes on labor income, domestic debt and international transfers. Both the home country and the rest of the world may have limited commitment, which means that they can leave the contract if they find it convenient. The contract is designed so that, at any point in time, neither party has incentives to exit. We define a small open emerging economy as an economy where the limited commitment problem is active in equilibrium. Conversely, a small open developed economy is an economy in which the commitment problem is not active. Our model is able to rationalize some stylized facts about fiscal policy in emerging economies: i) the volatility of tax revenues over GDP is higher in emerging economies than in developed ones; ii) fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging economies; iii) emerging economies may “graduate” from procyclical fiscal policy and adopt countercyclical policies in the long run.     

区域经济发展不均衡的因素分析模型及实证研究

近年来,关于中国地区经济增长和区域发展不平衡的研究非常多,但鲜有针对中国区域经济的平均指标(比如人均GDP)进行因素分析.本文通过构建平均指标的因素分析模型,对2000年与2009年广东省经济发展变化的驱动因素进行了实证研究.结果表明,造成区域经济发展不均衡的主要因素是劳动力流动不均衡,这一结果可以为我国协调区域均衡发展的工作提供政策启示.     

Does lumpiness matter in an open economy?: Studying international economics with regional data

This paper addresses the empirical question whether the regional distribution of production factors within countries is ever so uneven that it triggers specialization of production that makes regions produce different sets of goods at different factor prices. Due to the different welfare effects of trade policy in a country with regional specialization, this is an important question. In addition, it is a question about the legitimacy of treating a country as a relatively homogenous unit. In answering these questions, I implement the concept of “lumpiness” as introduced by Courant and Deardorff [J. Polit. Econ. 100 (1992) 198]. I find that lumpiness or an uneven regional distribution of production factors that induces intranational specialization and different regional factor prices is not an issue for Japan, the United Kingdom and maybe not even for India.     

A dynamic quantity adjustment process in a small open economy,and welfare effects of tariff changes

Considered an n-good small open economy where the technology is strictly convex and ad valorem tariffs are imposed. In this world it is known that the tariff-utility relationship may be perverse. The fact is known as the Vanek–Bhagwati Paradox. The source of the perversity is found in aggregate income effects. The present paper shows that D-stability of our dynamic system implies non-perverse aggregate income effects, and hence the non-perverse tariff-utility relationship.     

Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment

We develop a numerical growth model that quantifies the welfare effects of trade liberalization. Additional intermediate input varieties provide the engine of growth and dramatically magnify the welfare gains from trade liberalization. In our central model, a 10% tariff cut leads to a 10.6% estimated gain in Hicksian EV. Systematic sensitivity analysis shows that there is virtually no chance of a welfare increase less than 3%, but a 6.6% chance of a welfare gain greater than 18%. We show that complementary reforms are crucial to fully realize the potential gains from the trade reform.     

Private firms in China: Building legitimacy in an emerging economy

Firms are legitimized by their environments if they survive and prosper. But firms can also proactively build legitimacy to enhance their long-term growth prospects. This is vital for private firms based on emerging economies given the weak protection for private property. This article examines ways in which private firms in China build legitimacy for themselves and their industries. Through field interviews with firm founders and top managers in China various legitimization strategies and the conditions under which they can be used are examined. The authors also conducted follow-up interviews in Taiwan to investigate legitimacy-building strategies there. Though more advanced, Taiwan's economy shares many cultural traditions with Mainland China, and it presents firms with similar legitimacy-related challenges. Interviews with managers of multinationals operating in China were also conducted to determine what they are learning from the legitimization strategies of the indigenous Chinese firms.     

Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy

Industrial countries moving from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes experience dramatic rises in the variability of the real exchange rate. This evidence, forcefully documented by Mussa [Nominal exchange regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: evidence and implications. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25 (1986) 117], is a puzzle because it is hard to reconcile with the assumption of flexible prices. This paper lays out a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that combines nominal price rigidity with a systematic behavior of monetary policy able to approximate a continuum of exchange rate regimes. A version of the model with complete exchange rate pass-through is broadly consistent with Mussa’s findings. Most importantly, this holds independently of the underlying source of fluctuations in the economy, stressing the role of the nominal exchange rate regime per se in affecting the variability of the real exchange rate. However, only a model featuring incomplete exchange rate pass-through can account for a broader range of exchange rate statistics. Finally there exist ranges of values for either the degree of openness or the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods for which the baseline model is also consistent with the empirical insensitivity of output volatility to the type of exchange rate regime, as documented by Baxter and Stockman [Journal of Monetary Economics 23 (1989) 377].