On unit prices and their use in the analysis of the international specialization pattern within heterogeneous industries

The existence of factor intensity reversals between industrial countries has sometimes been attributed to differences in intra-industry specialisation. The industries studied are in fact quite heterogeneous. Consequently the relationships between the specialisation pattern of individual countries and differences in technology between industries may be obscured. In this paper a new method is presented with which specialisation of engineering trade can be studied in great detail. The method rests on the hypothesis that so called (metric) ton prices can be used as a proxy variable for differences in technology in a cross-section of engineering products. This hypothesis is further specified and tested in the paper for a cross-section of engineering products consisting of 40 subindustries of the Swedish engineering industry. If the outcome of the test can be assumed to hold both for a lower level of commodity aggregation and for other countries as well, the new method can be used to test different trade theories (including the factor proportions theory) on the engineering trade of industrial countries. It uses among other variables three variables constructed from the ton prices in engineering exports of OECD-Europe.The results of this paper carry major implications also on the construction and earlier use of price indices of engineering products. The results seem to imply that ton prices fo not measure product prices of engineering goods but rather the technology used in converting tons of metals into units of engineering goods. The price indices used in studies estimating price elasticities in foreign trade or production functions on time series data rest, however, im part on such an assumption.     

Does Aid Cause Trade? Evidence from an Asymmetric Gravity Model

Anderson and vanWincoop developed what has become the standard framework for framing and interpreting empirical work using the gravity model. Their framework relies heavily on an assumption of symmetry among countries. For issues related to North‐South trade, this assumption is problematic. In this paper, we develop an asymmetric extension of the Anderson–vanWincoop framework appropriate to the analysis of North‐South trade, where Northern countries produce differentiated goods and Southern countries homogenous ones. In addition, we use an appropriately extended version of Baier and Bergtrand and Taylor linear expansion – thus permitting its estimation using (good old) OLS. The result is an empirical model that (i) is better suited to the analysis of North‐South trade, (ii) is easy to estimate and compute comparative statics, not requiring a customised NLS routine and, given the way the South is included, (iii) provides a simple explanation of zero trade flows between some country pairs, a fact still not fully explained in the literature. As an illustration of its use, we examine the empirical link between foreign aid and trade.     

贸易增长与工资差距(1990～2009)——基于劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构的经验研究

文章从劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构视角建立模型,研究中国近20年贸易增长与工资差距的关系。回归、Granger检验和Chow突变点分析发现:工资差距主要受与人均GNI更高国家之间贸易占贸易总额比率的影响,两者呈负相关关系;与低技能劳动密集型产品的产值占GDP比重关系密切;同时也和加工贸易、高新技术产品贸易的增长有显著的负的线性相关关系;事实表面上有悖于实际却佐证了要素价格均等化理论和S-S定理,而被广为引用的中间产品贸易模型和贸易的科技进步效应理论在某个角度上却缺乏经验支持;全球化与"赶超"式发展必然导致工资差距进一步扩大。     

In search of fair trade: ethical consumer decision making in France

While the market for fair trade products has been growing in many countries, this paper examines the French market where fair trade remains marginal but is experiencing growth. Using a modified Theory of Planned Behaviour framework the research examines consumer intention to purchase fair trade grocery products in order to explain the pertinent decision‐making criteria of both consumers of and potential consumers of fair trade. Results reveal that concerned consumers should not be treated as one homogeneous group, rather, the distinct variations in the factors that influence their decision making must be considered when promoting, labelling and distributing fair trade products. Implications for both sustaining and developing the market for fair trade products in the future are highlighted and discussed.     

Applying neutralization theory to fair trade buying behaviour

More and more consumers are willing to pay a premium for fair trade products. However, great potential remains as the market shares of these products are still low. In the present study, neutralization theory was applied to investigate the reasons for consumers hesitating to buy more fair trade products. A postal paper‐and‐pencil survey was sent out using random addresses from the telephone book in the German‐speaking part of Switzerland, resulting in a final sample size of n = 620. The results show that the techniques of neutralization are used to various degrees. A principal component analysis resulted in two strategies of neutralization: an internal strategy (focusing on the consumers themselves) and an external strategy (focusing on the farmers in developing countries). A regression analysis proved that the internal neutralization strategy was an important predictor for fair trade buying behaviour, even when controlling for attitudes towards fair trade.     

Capital, technology, and specialization in the neoclassical model

The paper studies the effects of technology and capital stock on trade using simulation. For this purpose, the paper develops and evaluates a model that is distinguished by its use of the Eaton-Kortum framework to explain intra-industry trade instead of the usual Armington assumption. It is found that the magnitudes and in many cases signs of the effects of capital stock and technology on specialization are very country-specific. This implies that the regression studies that estimate cross-country average effects have limited value. Looking at the volume of trade, the paper finds that capital endowments and industry-level comparative advantages have little effect on the volume of trade — the reduced inter-industry trade between more similar countries is compensated by increased intra-industry trade. Producer heterogeneity, on the other hand, has a significant effect on the volume of trade. The paper evaluates the accuracy of the model's forecasts by performing historical simulations for 1975-95, with the results showing that the model's predictions are accurate.     

Carbon policy and the structure of global trade

Alternative perspectives on the structure of international trade have important implications for the evaluation of climate policy. In this paper, we assess climate policy in the context of three important alternative trade formulations. First is a Heckscher‐Ohlin model based on trade in homogeneous products, which establishes the traditional neoclassical view on comparative advantage. Second is an Armington model based on regionally differentiated goods, which is a popular specification for numerical simulations of trade policy. Third is a Melitz model based on monopolistic competition and firm heterogeneity. This heterogeneous‐firms framework is adopted in many contemporary theoretic and empirical investigations in international trade. As we show in this paper, the three alternative trade formulations have important implications for the assessment of climate policy with respect to competitive effects for energy‐intensive production (and hence carbon leakage) as well as the transmission of policy burdens across countries.     

文化距离会阻碍文化服务输出吗？ ——基于2006~2012 年跨国数据的检验

本文利用2006~2012年216个国家间的文化服务贸易数据检验了文化距离对国家间文化服务贸易的影响。研究显示,以Hofstede国家文化维度测量的文化距离会显著阻碍国家间总体文化服务贸易的发展;互联网的普及和国家间说同种语言人口比例的上升会部分抵销文化距离带来的负向作用。具体来看,文化距离对文化信息服务存在显著负向作用,对文化产品再生产或分配许可贸易会产生正向作用;不同维度的文化距离对文化服务贸易的影响也存在显著异质性。     

ARAB-ISRAELI POTENTIAL TRADE: THE ROLE OF INPUT SHARING

In this article we sought to develop a methodology for estimating the level and composition of potential trade between Israel and its Arab neighbors. The need for such a methodology derives from the fact that the existing trade of these countries with the rest of the world constitutes an insufficient basis for predicting bilateral trade patterns between them. Trade based on input sharing can be an important source of ''new trade'' that is, trade that is not necessarily related to goods and services currently traded by the countries in question. New trade based on input sharing pertains to the imports by Arab countries of inputs in which Israel has a proven comparative advantage, and to imports by Israel of inputs produced in Arab countries in which the latter have a proven comparative advantage. It stands to reason that branches characterized by comparative advantage in the exporting country can improve the competitive position of the import ing country, when incorporated in the latter's final products. The analysis confirms that in agricultural produce, food products, and certain sub-branches of the textiles and clothing industry, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt all appear to be potential suppliers to Israel. Inter alia, the results show that the Israeli import potential of inputs from Jordan appears to be both larger and more evenly distributed among the different branches than the import potential from Syria and even from Egypt. This finding does not accord with expectations in view of the fact that Jordan has a smaller population and a lower gross domestic product than either Egypt or Syria. Jordan stands out in that its construction industry, including ceramic products, nonmetallic minerals, and structural metals, are also potential suppliers. The methodology developed in this article specifically concerns potential trade between Israel and its Arab neighbors. It can be usefully employed in other situations where trade between pairs of countries is either nonexistent or severely distorted by political or other factors. Examples which come to mind include trade between countries which in the past belonged to the Soviet bloc, or trade between these countries and the rest of the world. In such cases it is improper to base one's trade predictions on the countries' existing trading patterns. New trade, which can be very substantial, and which may have a very different composition from current trade of the parties concerned, must be added to the equation. The methodology demonstrated in this article can be easily adapted for this purpose.     

Effects of the Regional Trading Arrangements on Trade: Evidence from the NAFTA,ANZCER and ASEAN Countries, 1989 – 2000

Using the modified gravity model, this study examines whether the free trade areas of NAFTA, ANZCER and ASEAN would result in trade creation among the member countries and trade diversion with the non-member countries. Further, it applies Linder's income similarity concept to explain the trade patterns in the developed and developing countries within these free trade areas. First, the results suggest that the implementations of the free trade areas have facilitated higher trade among the member countries, particularly the ANZCER and ASEAN countries. However, among all three free trade areas, the formation of the ANZCER free trade area has resulted in trade diversion with non-member countries, whereas that of the ASEAN free trade area has resulted in a trade increase with non-member countries. Surprisingly, the formation of the NAFTA free trade area has no significant effect on trade with non-member countries as their trade flows remain quite low even before its implementation. Second, the result indicates that the trade-enhancing effect of income similarity is confirmed for the developing rather than developed member countries. The developing member countries with similar incomes would trade extensively more with each other. This result can be partly explained by Hanink's income threshold concept, which argues that the income similarity effect is only applicable to developed countries with very small difference in incomes. Given the heterogeneous country sample in this study, the substantial income differences among the developed member countries would probably account for the lack of income similarity effect in these countries.     

我国葡萄酒进口需求及产品异质性的实证研究

我国是葡萄酒净进口国,随着我国居民收入水平的不断提高,进口规模逐渐扩大,需要把握进口变化的动因,判断我国葡萄酒进口贸易的发展方向,从而促进我国葡萄酒贸易的健康发展。运用进口需求模型定量分析葡萄酒进口变化的主要决定因素,进而针对不同来源地产品之间的关系,用近似理想需求系统模型进行分析。结果表明,随着消费者收入的提高和进口关税的降低,我国葡萄酒进口贸易仍有很大发展空间;进口葡萄酒和国产葡萄酒存在差异化竞争,进口葡萄酒占据了我国高端市场;在我国的葡萄酒进口市场上,法国与智利和澳大利亚的产品具有异质性,智利与澳大利亚的产品表现为同质性。我国葡萄酒进口规模将逐渐扩大,国产高端产品需要一定的保护和培育。     

全球价值链重构的经济效应--兼论中美经贸摩擦的影响

2017年,中美关系发生了实质性变化,美国对华战略从合作走向竞争。新冠肺炎疫情下,中美关系更是面临新的不确定性,中美经贸摩擦将影响中美两国的经济,进而产生连锁反应,造成全球价值链的重构。利用2014年世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)和假设提取法,测算中美经贸摩擦和全球价值链重构对世界43个国家或地区的经济影响,并重点模拟中美之间贸易由国内供给替代对增加值和劳动力就业的最大影响。结果表明:第一,基准模型设定下,经济效应存在地区异质性,中国周边地区、美国周边北美自由贸易区受到的影响最大,反映了区域性生产网络的存在。第二,相对美国,中国受影响更大,增加值下降2.5%以上;其余受影响较大的国家有爱尔兰、卢森堡、荷兰;印度和欧洲大部分地区受影响较小。第三,中美经贸摩擦对每个行业的影响不同,受影响最大的行业为中国的家具制造业和其他制造业,计算机、电子和光学产品制造业,以及美国的航空运输业。第四,假设其余国家或地区卷入中美经贸摩擦,存在替代效应和全球价值链重构,部分国家或地区增加值和劳动力就业均上升,上升最多的为22.42%。建议深化实施"一带一路"倡议,主动与周边国家或地区开展经济合作,强化区域价值链的影响,同时积极培育和发展国内产业链。     

汇率对产业内贸易的传导和冲击效应——基于中国东盟自由贸易区的分析

本文以中国与东盟六国18类产品的产业内贸易的月度面板数据作为分析基础,通过分析汇率与产业内贸易的传导关系、中国与东盟六国产业内贸易特点,并且建立产业内贸易指数与汇率的VAR模型,对我国的汇率对产业内贸易的冲击作用和动态关系做实证分析。研究发现:一是无论是短期或长期,汇率升值对绝大多数初级产品的产业内贸易是不利的,但在短期内它有助于提升大多数工业制品的产业内贸易水平,长期内对工业制品的产业内贸易冲击效应是分化的。二是汇率升值后长期内对不同劳动密集型产品的产业内贸易发展是一样的。三是无论是短期还是长期,初级产品的产业内贸易对汇率冲击的反应相当微弱,工业制品反应相对较强。     

中韩产业内贸易的实证分析

中韩两国自1992年建交以来,双边贸易取得了长足发展。两国的产业内贸易发展非常迅速,地位不断提高。但在产品质量上,中韩两国产业内贸易以垂直型为主,中国在低质量垂直型产业内贸易上占主导地位,使得我国获得的实际贸易利益有限。因此,应采取提高产品科技含量;提高外资利用能力,加强国际合作;培育规模经济,实施规模经营战略;改善现有中韩贸易结构等措施促进中韩双边贸易的可持续发展。     

数字服务贸易国际竞争力比较及对我国启示

数字服务贸易是指通过网络跨境传输交付的产品和服务贸易,是数字贸易的重要组成部分。数字服务贸易深刻影响国际贸易分工、分配关系,引发国际社会广泛关注,各国围绕跨境数据流动、数据存储规则、知识产权保护、数字服务监管等的博弈日益激烈。基于联合国贸发会议统计框架和相关数据对全球数字服务贸易发展态势进行分析,并通过国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力指数、显性比较优势指数对主要经济体数字服务贸易国际竞争力进行比较后发现,全球数字服务贸易增长迅猛,正成为服务贸易增长关键动力,推动全球贸易向服务化方向发展;从细分子类看,与信息通信技术(ICT)高度相关的计算机和信息服务贸易增长最快,金融、保险、工程研发等传统服务贸易增长较慢;从主要经济体看,发展中国家与发达国家数字服务贸易在规模、占比和竞争力水平上均存在较大差距,并呈现出一定扩大趋势。我国应把握数字服务贸易发展机遇,推动数字服务产业创新发展,鼓励和支持企业参与全球数字服务分工,完善数字服务治理体系,与相似发展水平的国家一同推动包容性数字贸易规则体系的建设。     

Productivity Dispersion and its Determinants: The Role of Import Penetration

The new heterogeneous firm models in international economics predict a negative impact of trade openness on within-sector productivity disparities, due to a restructuring process leading to a reallocation of resources towards more efficient firms and the exit of less productive ones. I test this hypothesis for the Italian manufacturing sectors making use of panel data models. I investigate the existence of heterogeneous effects in terms of origin of imports and I account for a geographical dimension computing the productivity dispersion indicator by sector and regional macro-area. The analysis is implemented within a comprehensive framework controlling for other potential determinants, such as technological factors and domestic competition. My findings show that competitive pressure from low income countries reduces the productivity heterogeneity across firms. On the contrary, a positive impact is detected for the increased availability of intermediates originating from developed countries.     

出口、投资与企业生产率:西方贸易理论的微观新进展

出口、投资与企业生产率关系的理论研究是当前贸易微观领域里的最新论题。这一研究突破了新贸易理论中的"企业同质性"假设,将企业异质性纳入到一般均衡贸易理论的分析框架中,强调个体企业特征与国家对外贸易、投资活动的紧密关联性。本文通过对这一最新成果的简要回顾,厘清了理论发展的主要研究脉络。研究表明:西方贸易理论正在发生从宏观分析向微观基础的研究转向;以生产率差异作为分析工具的研究思路和方法,为新形势下我国出口投资战略和企业国际化发展,提供理论借鉴和现实启示。     

贸易便利化、国际生产分割与出口价值构成

贸易便利化降低生产分割与贸易成本,促进国家之间的生产分工与贸易,同时改变了出口的价值构成。文章分析了贸易便利化影响国际生产分割和出口价值构成的理论机制,并在双边产业层面实证检验了贸易便利化对出口价值构成的影响,主要结论有:贸易便利化对出口本国附加值率的基本影响为负;当贸易便利化水平提高到一定程度,过度外包的生产环节回流,即贸易便利化对出口附加值率的影响存在"U"型效应;贸易便利化对出口附加值率的影响在不同国家、不同产业贸易中存在明显的异质性;贸易便利化可以通过影响国际生产分割的参与度和参与位置影响出口价值构成。     

International trade and child labor: Cross-country evidence

We explore the relationship between exposure to trade (as measured by openness) and child labor in a cross-country setting. Our methodology accounts for the fact that trade flows are endogenous to child labor (and labor standards more generally) by examining the relationship between child labor and variation in trade based on geography. We find that countries that trade more have less child labor. At the cross-country means, the data suggest an openness elasticity of child labor of − 0.7. For low-income countries, the elasticity of child labor with respect to trade with high-income countries is − 0.9. However, these relationships appear to be largely attributable to the positive association between trade and income. We consistently find a small and statistically insignificant association between openness and child labor when we control for cross-country income differences in the full sample, when we split the sample into different country groups, consider only trade between high- and low-income countries, or focus on exports of unskilled-labor intensive products from low-income countries. Thus, the cross-country data do not substantiate assertions that trade per se plays a significant role in perpetuating the high levels of child labor that pervade low-income countries.     

我国禽畜产品出口面临的新问题-道德壁垒

我国是禽畜产品的生产大国,更是禽畜产品的出口大国,2003年出口就已近20亿美元.但我国禽畜产品在国际贸易中正面临着一个新问题--道德壁垒,即一些发达国家为了保护自身的利益,利用各国在动物福利标准方面的差异所采用的一种新的贸易保护方式.道德壁垒在国际贸易尤其是禽畜产品贸易中越来越明显.本文介绍了道德壁垒的含义和特点,分析了道德壁垒对我国禽畜产品出口的影响,并提出了如何应对道德壁垒的措施.