国际贸易理论的演进逻辑:贸易动因、贸易结构和贸易结果

国际贸易理论历经古典贸易理论、新古典贸易理论、新贸易理论、新兴古典贸易理论和新新贸易理论五个阶段,主要回答三个基本问题:贸易动因、贸易结构和贸易结果。依据不同的假设,贸易理论对影响贸易的边界条件的解释各不相同,对贸易动因解释也不相同;贸易结构从行业间贸易、行业内贸易发展为企业间贸易,国际贸易正在向全球化下的企业分工演变;贸易结果是国际贸易得以持续展开的效果,生产力提升是最终的结果。基于三个基本问题,比较各种国际贸易理论,揭示各种国际贸易理论的局限性,并做出评价。     

Growth and Trade vs. Trade and Growth

In the traditional trade literature, there is a well-developed area analyzing the effect of growth on trade and its reflection on income growth. This literature developed already in the 1950s and 1960s. Generally speaking, an interest in the effects of trade on growth has also existed for many years, where trade has often been viewed as an engine of growth. Cases in point are the "East Asian Tigers" and Japan which have especially benefited from outward-looking policies. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between economic growth and growth in income terms of trade, arguing that income terms of trade is a useful concept in analyses of the link between trade and growth. Our results suggest that fast-growing countries have either specialized in sectors with a relatively favorable development with regard to world market prices, or they have managed to successively improve quality within sectors, thereby avoiding falling terms of trade in spite of large increases in export volumes.     

中韩贸易中的非一体化贸易转向: 机制、过程与结果

中韩贸易逆差产生的内在原因是韩国对华直接投资所引致的非一体化贸易转向,这同时也是开放条件下推动比较优势向竞争优势转化的主体间的利益分配问题。在讨论中韩贸易逆差的国际直接投资因素的基础上,研究中韩贸易中的非一体化贸易转向,并探讨其结构效应和比较利益分配机制。     

货物贸易、服务贸易与技术贸易发展趋向

通过对世界货物贸易、世界服务贸易和国际技术贸易这三者的发展状况进行对比分析,考察三者在贸易自由化方面的关系,认为技术贸易自由化的阻力是技术贸易、服务贸易和货物贸易中最小的,且发展最快;服务贸易自由化的阻力又小于货物贸易自由化的阻力,其发展速度快于货物贸易,并据此提出我国应采取的对策建议。     

省际贸易、国际贸易与经济增长——基于长三角制造业数据的经验分析

在描述长江三角洲制造业省际贸易和国际贸易发展的基础上,利用江苏、浙江、上海三省市2002-2007年的投入产出表,实证检验了省际贸易和国际贸易对经济增长的影响.研究结果表明:省际贸易和国际贸易都对经济增长产生了正面影响,但省际贸易的经济增长效应要大于国际贸易,而且省际贸易和国际贸易对低技术行业的经济增长效应要大于高技术行业.     

Firm R&D,Processing Trade and Input Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Chinese Firms

This paper examines the impact of input trade liberalisation on firm R&D activity by taking China's accession to the WTO as a quasi‐natural experiment. Different from ordinary imports, processing imports in China enjoy zero tariffs and are not affected by input trade liberalisation due to the WTO accession. The paper uses disaggregated firm‐level production data and transaction‐level trade data to perform difference‐in‐difference analysis by taking processing import firms as a control group. An intensive empirical search shows that after China's accession to the WTO, input trade liberalisation fostered firm R&D significantly. The findings are robust to different measures and various empirical specifications.     

金融危机对美国对外贸易、贸易收支和经济增长的影响

金融危机通过对美国进口的抑制作用和对美国出口的刺激作用,改变美国的对外贸易规模和结构。金融危机对美国对外贸易的影响将首先传导到美国的贸易收支账户,收缩美国的贸易逆差。美国贸易逆差的收缩将传导到美国的国民收入账户,在一定程度上支撑美国的经济增长。所以,美国正在通过对外贸易输出金融危机。     

Carbon,Trade Policy and Carbon Free Trade Areas

This paper discusses both the potential contribution that trade policy initiatives can make towards the achievement of significant global carbon emissions reduction and the potential impacts of proposals now circulating for carbon reduction motivated geographical trade arrangements, including carbon‐free trade areas. We first suggest that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment. The dominant influence on carbon emissions globally for the next several decades will be growth more than trade and its composition, and in turn, the size of trade seemingly matters more than its composition given differences in emission intensity between tradables and non‐tradables. We then note that differences in emissions intensity across countries are larger than across products or sectors and so issues of country discrimination in trade policy (and violations of MFN) arise. We next discuss both unilateral and regional carbon motivated trade policy arrangements, including three potential variants of carbon emission reduction based free trade area arrangements. One is regional trade agreements with varying types of trade preferences towards low carbon‐intensive products, low carbon new technologies and inputs to low carbon processes. A second is the use of joint border measures against third parties to counteract anti‐competitive effects from groups of countries taking on deeper emission reduction commitments. A third is third‐country trade barriers along with free trade or other regional trade agreements as penalty mechanisms to pressure other countries to join emission‐reducing environmental agreements. We differentiate among the objectives, forms and possible impacts of each variant. We also speculate as to how the world trading system may evolve in the next few decades as trade policy potentially becomes increasingly dominated by environmental concerns. We suggest that the future evolution of the trading system will likely be with environmentally motivated arrangements acting as an overlay on prevailing trade and financial arrangements in the WTO and IMF, and eventually movement to linked global trade and environmental policy bargaining.     

“寡头”市场结构、贸易媒介与贸易商品定价——分析框架及基于棉花贸易史的案例研究

中国在贸易中面临"寡头"地位确立与定价权缺失共存的困境,通过提出一个引入贸易媒介环节的三分法贸易商品定价框架对此进行解释。贸易商品定价受到"寡头"国家/政府政策作用于贸易媒介市场结构程度的影响,还依赖于出口国/进口国的微观市场结构状况。贸易媒介通过与生产者和消费者的定价博弈选择使其利润最大化的买卖价格,政府政策/私人保护通过影响贸易媒介市场结构间接影响贸易商品定价。利用典型的英美棉花贸易"双寡头"案例,通过价格变动的相对弹性、转嫁系数和Granger因果检验三种方法定量分析了英美棉花贸易的定价博弈,计量结果与三分法分析结果完全符合,为论文提出的分析框架提供了例证支持。     

Trade, turnover, and tithing

This paper examines the hypothesis that turnover affects trade preferences. High turnover industries are similar to the Stolper-Samuelson assumption of perfect factor mobility, so factor of production drives trade preferences. Among low turnover industries, as in the specific factors model, net export position determines trade preferences. We show that PAC contribution patterns are consistent with this hypothesis. In high turnover industries, capital groups give significantly larger shares of their campaign contributions to free trade supporters than labor groups do. Among low turnover industries, on the other hand, exporting and import-competing groups differ significantly in their financial support for free traders.     

Trade,investment, and labor: The case of Indonesia

Rapid industrialization and urbanization spurred on by a surge in foreign investment is often considered typical of newly industrializing countries (NICs). But in Indonesia, the combination of late development and an authoritarian state has created a particularly potent mix, one that has raised more questions than usual about the effects of growth, trade, and investment on labor conditions and local standards of living. The basic motives of foreign direct investment (FDI) are said to create a pattern that is inherently ripe for exploitation, since the capital, technology and market access all rest with the foreign investor. The author uses the Indonesian case to explore factors that might reduce exploitation. While conceding that foreign investment is likely to affect labor conditions in the host economy, especially in times of rapid growth, she cautions against presuming that the consequences will be mainly negative with respect to the living standards and basic human rights of the local population.     

Outward Foreign Direct Investment,Interindustry Networks,and U.S. Trade Politics

This article investigates how outward foreign direct investment by U.S. multinational corporations influences industry lobbying for trade protection in the United States, focusing on interindustry structure of goods sales networks between upstream and downstream sectors and also on the multinationals’ input procurement patterns. If foreign affiliates of U.S. multinationals switch input sources from U.S. to host-country suppliers, U.S. suppliers should receive a negative demand shock, ceteris paribus. An empirical test finds that those U.S. upstream sectors that are highly dependent upon U.S. multinationals for goods sales tend to lobby more as the multinationals’ overseas production and sales increase.     

John V. C. Nye. War, Wine, and Taxes: The Political Economy of Anglo-French Trade, 1689-1900

This is not a long book: an introduction and eight chaptersamounting to 120 pages with additional appendices. However,it eruditely covers and raises a wide variety of intriguingissues that give it far greater impact than the slim volumemight at first suggest. The book is fundamentally about challenging the assertion thatBritain was a free trader in the nineteenth century and wasa free trader when compared specifically with France. From theoutset, John Nye sets     

ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement: Evaluating Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects

The present study attempts to provide insight into the trade creation and trade diversion effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement in goods, which came into force in 2010. The paper applies a theoretically consistent gravity model and uses empirically robust procedures such as ordinary least squares and pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood in order to analyze the ex post effects of the agreement at an aggregate level. The results reveal that standard gravity variables are statistically significant and report expected signs, yet a reduction in export flows has been observed following the implementation of the free trade agreement, giving rise to pure trade diversion effects.     

贸易收入余额对中美贸易的影响

随着经济全球化的加深,越来越多的跨国公司通过对外直接投资向海外销售产品和服务的方式来获取收益。传统的贸易余额没有包含对外直接投资收入。本文指出与传统的贸易余额相比,加入对外直接投资净收入的贸易收入余额更能反映当今一国的对外贸易状况及国家间的经济利益,用贸易收入余额衡量的美国贸易逆差和中国贸易顺差将大幅减少,中美贸易收入逆差将使中美贸易逆差小幅下降。     

Turkey: Trade Policy Review, 2007

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the main issues highlighted in the Trade Policy Review: Turkey 2007. The paper studies first the main developments in Turkey’s trade regime and trade performance. Next it discusses Turkish trade policy under the headings of measures affecting imports, exports and foreign direct investment. The paper notes that the formation of the 1995 EU–Turkey customs union has contributed to a significant increase in the contestability of domestic markets through infusing predictability, transparency and stability to trade policy as well as by liberalising market access. But free trade in industrial goods between Turkey and the EU could still not be established mainly because of non‐tariff barriers and in particular because of the various problems faced in the elimination of technical barriers to trade (TBT). The final section of the paper discusses first the role of standards and conformity assessment in general terms and thereafter evaluates critically the Turkish approach to elimination of TBTs.