机构投资者行为与新兴市场的货币危机传染

最近的阿根廷货币危机没有表现出1990年代以来的其他新兴市场货币危机那样明显的传染效应。本文对机构投资者行为变化因素在新兴市场货币危机传染中的作用进行理论和实证分析，并从这一角度解释阿根廷危机呈现出的新特点。     

东南亚金融危机的贸易传染效应分析

20世纪90年代，世界上主要发生了三次带有传染性的金融危机，即欧洲货币体系危机，墨西哥比索危机，以及97年发生的东南亚金融危机。这三次危机不仅对经济和金融的影响大、持续时间长，而且带有波及整个区域甚至全球其他国家的特征。为此，许多学者提出了“传染效应”的概念，对传染效应提出各自的定义．分析危机传染的渠道并提出增强抵抗传染能力的政策建议。本文的目的不在于研究危机发生的机制，而重在研究东南亚金融危机的传染渠道。本文首先用大量事实证明亚洲国家间存在着紧密的贸易联系，从理论上说明贸易渠道传染的竞争效应、收入效应和双边贸易效应，然后以受危机波及国家的大量宏观数据，通过回归分析，证明贸易渠道在亚洲金融危机的传染中是最显著的。本文也基于这一实证研究，指出了其政策含义。     

美国危机向亚洲新兴市场传染过程中的多米诺效应研究

本文阐述并度量了危机传染过程中的多米诺效应。它是引发金融危机传染的多种渠道之一。我们通过描述性统计和Logit离散选择模型考察了多米诺效应的存在性,并利用离散型贝叶斯模型刻画出多米诺效应的路径,同时借助样本内预测分析了其对实际数据的解释能力。研究结果表明,在美国危机向亚洲新兴市场传染的过程中,中国香港和日本市场是形成多米诺效应的重要媒介,它们对美国金融事件做出的剧烈反应,最终导致了亚洲新兴市场"自促成"形式的危机传染。     

欧债危机对全球及中国传染性的测度分析——基于复杂网络的模拟研究

文章基于贸易渠道构建了包含244个国家的全球网络,利用复杂网络方法和具有潜伏期的SEIR模型对欧债危机传染性进行了模拟分析,并将随机网络与实际网络的传染性进行了对比。结果发现:全球网络具有无标度特征和小世界特征;全球网络的复杂性既表现出对危机的扩散性,又表现出吸收性,全球网络具备稳健性特征;危机传染力在低于扩散阈值时不会对他国构成负外部性,但危机越严重传染范围越广,高于崩溃阈值后传染范围达到最大;中国与美国在全球网络中节点度相同,但在传染模拟中中国先于美国被传染,且危机潜伏期越久此种特征越明显。     

欧债危机对全球及中国传染性的测度分析——基于复杂网络的模拟研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章基于贸易渠道构建了包含244个国家的全球网络,利用复杂网络方法和具有潜伏期的SEIR模型对欧债危机传染性进行了模拟分析,并将随机网络与实际网络的传染性进行了对比。结果发现:全球网络具有无标度特征和小世界特征;全球网络的复杂性既表现出对危机的扩散性,又表现出吸收性,全球网络具备稳健性特征;危机传染力在低于扩散阈值时不会对他国构成负外部性,但危机越严重传染范围越广,高于崩溃阈值后传染范围达到最大;中国与美国在全球网络中节点度相同,但在传染模拟中中国先于美国被传染,且危机潜伏期越久此种特征越明显。     

国际金融危机对广西的冲击与思考

一、国际金融危机对广西的冲击 国际金融危机对广西的冲击,主要通过以下七大传染渠道： 第一,次级债（债券）传染渠道。美国次贷危机引发了主要次贷抵押机构破产,购买次级贷款金融衍生品的美国及其他国家的多家国际金融机构面临经营困难乃至破产,从而引发信贷危机。广西区域金融机构购买次级贷款金融衍生品的微乎其微．次级债传染渠道对广西的直接影响较小。     

金融传染和现行国际货币体系

2 0世纪 90年代以来爆发的金融危机都表现出一定程度的传染性 ,金融传染成为金融危机的主要特征。金融传染的主要原因在于投资者信息的不对称和金融市场流动性的限制。金融传染国家的金融体系的脆弱性是导致金融传染的根本原因 ,而现行国际货币体系的缺陷加剧了金融传染的可能性。亚洲金融危机以来的改革国际货币体系的努力可能为将来防御金融传染作出贡献     

论金融危机传染机制及其在东南亚金融危机中的作用

本文将金融危机的传染机制从理论上分为三种贸易传染、金融传染和预期传染,三者在危机传染过程中是同时发生作用的,其中预期传染的作用日益显现.同时,本文对金融危机传染机制在东南亚金融危机的传染过程的作用进行了分析.     

美国次贷危机传染效应的VAR分析

2007年次贷危机爆发,随后危机迅速在全球蔓延。本文通过Granger因果检验与脉冲响应分析对危机前后美国、德国、英国、香港与中国的股票市场价格指数的波动进行了实证检验,结果发现此次金融危机传染是以美国为中心的发散性传染,我国的股票市场受到的影响主要是由于预期的改变。最后对我国预防危机的传染提出了相应的建议。     

金融危机、宏观经济因素与中美股市联动

伴随中国经济及金融的逐步开放,中美股市不仅出现了显著的联动,而且在2008年金融危机期间这种联动还显著增强。现有研究分析了中美股市的联动及其相依结构,但几乎没有涉及联动及危机期间联动增强的原因。本文通过在(DCC)GARCH模型中引入宏观经济变量,同时允许股票市场对宏观经济因素的响应时变,分析了中美股市联动及危机期间联动增强的原因。研究结果显示,美国冲击的跨国传导和传染是中美股市联动的主要动因,危机期间的净传染是中美股市联动增强的一个原因,但解释力不强,理性传染是危机期间中美股市联动增强的主因,在引起理性传染的宏观经济因素中,美国货币政策冲击的结构性突变最为重要。     

Currency crisis and contagion: evidence from exchange rates and sectoral stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis by using high-frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. With time-series techniques, this study confirms that benchmark stock indices often fail to provide valuable insights into currency crises, but there is evidence that developments in some sectoral indices—including those of banking and financial sectors—seem to have caused upward pressure on exchange rates. Our evidence therefore confirms the importance of financial markets as a transmission channel during the currency crisis period.     

Dealing with the Contagion： China and India in the Aftermath of the Subprime Meltdown

What began as a downturn in the US housing sector in the summer of 2007 had mushroomed into a global financial crisis by September 2008： the most severe since the 1930s. Developing countries, including China and India, at first seemingly sheltered from the worst of the turmoil, have not been immune to the contagion＇s spillover effects. What are China and India＇s precise vulnerabilities, and what can each do to better insulate their economies from the vagaries of global financial marker turmoil？ Equally important, what long-term strategies must each country adopt to make their economies more resilient to global market downturns？     

International Financial Contagion and the Fund —A Theoretical Framework

In this paper we provide a model of contagion in which countries are linked through the international capital market which allows borrowing and lending for consumption smoothing. Borrowing from the International Monetary Fund also provides a mechanism for countries to smooth consumption intertemporally. Facing a large shock that makes it impossible for a country simultaneously to achieve a desired minimum level of consumption and to service its foreign debt, the country will default. This will put some upward pressure on world interest rates, which raises the debt service costs of other indebted countries and can generate further rounds of defaults. In this environment the Fund has an important systemic function in lending to members to limit the extent of contagion and default. The Fund can be seen as internalizing the externality generated by the contagion that spreads through the channel of the world capital market that links all countries. JEL Classification Numbers: E44, E61, F33, F34     

金融危机传染的信用路径

从信用理论来看,金融危机传染的内在路径,就是其传染的信用路径。通过分析发现,金融危机传染的信用路径共有四种:信用主体双向性传染、信用关系性传染、信用心欲性传染、信用信息性传染。一个国家受到他国传染而爆发金融危机往往是四种信用路径的传染同时作用的结果。     

A Spatial Modelling Approach to Contagion Among Emerging Economies

This paper takes a spatial modelling approach in specifying and testing for contagion among emerging market economies. Our approach enables us to estimate asymmetries such as the magnitude of contagion of one country upon others, as well as how that country in turn is affected, on average, by the events of others. The approach also enables us to test for contagion in a formal, straightforward way and to take account for distance and trade linkages among countries. The results suggest that contagion is a statistically significant factor in foreign exchange markets and, furthermore, its effects are not uniform across the countries considered. JEL Classification Numbers: F30, F32, C10     

Sluggish Recovery from the Financial Crisis: Crowding-out Effect and Contagion

Abstract

The stimulus plans by the US Government after the financial crisis in 2008 may decrease private investment by means of a crowding-out effect. The US Federal Reserve utilized quantitative easing policies to maintain the interest rate as low as possible to minimize crowding-out. The 2008 financial crisis also affects other economies through contagion effects. This paper investigates the existence of the crowding-out effect and contagion effect after the crisis using Temin and Voth's models. The empirical results from vector autoregession show that there is a crowding-out effect in the US economy as well as a contagion effect of the crisis on the Korean and Japanese economies.     

The dynamic contagion of the global financial crisis into Japanese markets

This paper investigates the risk contagion channel of the global financial crisis into Japan using daily data on bond risk premiums for the financial and manufacturing industries from July 18, 2006 to May 25, 2010. We employ a bivariate EGARCH model with the constant exogenous contagion impacts of foreign industries and the time-varying endogenous contagion impacts of domestic industries. We find evidence that: (i) a constant exogenous impact from foreign industries appears in the risk premium for 5-year bonds issued by manufacturing industry firms, and (ii) contagion only exists from the manufacturing industry to the financial industry, and that there is no evidence of any reverse causation, even during the Lehman Brothers shock on September 15, 2008. Thus, in Japan, risk transfers from foreign industries to the domestic manufacturing industry, and thence to the domestic financial industry.     

制度环境、制度创新与银行资本结构优化目标

银行资本结构优化目标是银行资本理论需要探讨的重要问题.从政府关于商业银行改革的目标出发,我国商业银行的资本结构优化应针对转轨时期的制度环境,以制度创新为重点确立三大目标,即安全经营目标、国有资本相对控股下的治理优化目标和基于经济资本的价值最大化目标.     

跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响--基于风险累积效应和风险传染效应的视角

从风险累积效应和风险传染效应两个视角揭示跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响机理,并基于2000年第一季度至2020年第四季度时间序列数据进行经验检验,结果表明:跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著增加了银行风险,且三者对银行风险的影响均存在显著的风险累积效应;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均通过影响金融机构人民币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构外币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构本外币各项贷款余额同比增速以及境内住户中长期消费贷款同比增速等信贷渠道显著提高银行风险承担水平,实现银行风险累积,从而增加银行风险;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著提高了股票价格、房地产价格和实际汇率的波动水平,且跨境资本流动通过股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场将波动水平传染至银行系统,增加了银行风险,股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场更是强化了这种传染效应。     

基于区块链技术的企业上链参与机制研究——以供应链金融场景为例

随着区块链技术的发展,其优势越来越突出,但区块链技术在现实中的应用仍存在诸多难题和障碍。着眼于解决区块链技术在应用过程中的企业上链问题,以供应链金融场景为例,分析供应链企业的上链过程,并考虑区块链技术应用过程中的时滞影响,在SEI传染模型的基础上构建区块链技术扩散模型,刻画供应链企业主客体间的上链传染关系,并讨论相关影响因素对上链过程的作用效果。研究表明,除了上下游供应链企业间的关联密度、协同度等因素对企业上链效果产生重要影响外,企业在过渡阶段的时滞同样会影响供应链上链程度,同时整个上链系统中存在唯一的正值平衡点。该研究为区块链在供应链金融场景的应用过程中,制定上链激励策略以及完善区块链应用模式提供了理论依据和参考。