Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model

Using data on developing economies, we estimate a flexible semiparametric panel data model that incorporates potentially nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. We find that inflation is associated with significantly lower growth only after it reaches about 12 percent, which is notably lower than the comparable estimate obtained from a threshold model. Our results also suggest that models with restrictive functional form assumptions tend to underestimate marginal effects of inflation on economic growth. We also document significant variation in the effect of inflation on growth across countries and over time.     

Technological differences and convergence in the OECD

Abstract. In this paper we test the homogeneity of the technological parameters among OECD countries, which is the maintained hypothesis in most of the empirical growth literature. We first identify differences in the constant term of the convergence equation estimated for the OECD 1960/1990 sample using a fixed- effects estimator. Then we provide a formal test of the homogeneity of technological parameters across groups of countries. We identify at least two different groups within the OECD, with significantly different technologies. Convergence within each group is fast, supporting the notion of club convergence. Nevertheless, the implausible parameter values obtained for the leading technology club casts some doubts on the validity of the Solow model to account for the long run behaviour of this group of countries.     

Inflation and the finance–growth nexus

This paper re-investigates whether there exist inflation thresholds in the finance–growth linkage. By applying the Caner and Hansen's (2004) instrumental-variable threshold regression approach to the dataset of Levine et al. (2000), we find strong evidence of a nonlinear inflation threshold in the relationship, below which financial development exerts a significantly positive effect on economic growth, while, above which, the growth effect of finance appears to be insignificant. Furthermore, we also find a positive and significant relationship between finance and productivity for inflation rates below the threshold level, but no such relationship is detected for inflation rates above the critical level. This result suggests that finance influences growth mainly through the productivity channel.     

Are complementary reforms a “luxury” for developing countries?

This paper investigates the impact of complementarity reforms on growth and how it depends on GDP per capita. Based on reform data for six policy areas compiled from various sources during the period 1994–2006 for over 100 countries, we compute composite indicators of reform level and complementarity. We provide qualitative justification for the existence of pair-wise complementarities among policy areas. We then use cross-section and panel data estimates to test the effect of reform level and complementarity on GDP per capita growth. We found reforms to be positively related and their dispersion (or the inverse of complementarity) negatively related to growth, controlling for initial conditions, monetary stability and other structural and institutional variables, as well as endogeneity of reform level and complementarity. We show that the effect of policy complementarity is a stronger condition for sustainable growth in developing than in advanced countries, to conclude that complementary reforms are not a ‘luxury’ for developing countries.     

A smooth coefficient quantile regression approach to the social capital–economic growth nexus

This analysis assesses the role of social capital in generating heterogeneity in growth processes across U.S. counties by estimating growth regressions, using the novel semiparametric smooth coefficient quantile regression method in which parameters are unspecified functions of a measure of social capital. The results indicate substantial differences across the quantiles of economic growth in the profile shapes of the coefficient estimates over the level of social capital. Moreover, the coefficient function estimates are highly nonlinear over the level of social capital, providing evidence that the growth process that links initial income, education attainment, ethnic diversity, inequality, population density, and government activity to growth varies with social capital in a nonlinear way.     

Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana

This paper develops a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to evaluate sources of accelerated growth and structural transformation. It goes beyond stylized and aggregate general equilibrium models by examining country-specific growth options to reach middle income country (MIC) status. We first examine a set of countries that have successfully transformed their economies to inform model and scenario building. We then simulate potentials and trade-offs of selected sector- and factor-specific growth paths for Ghana. Results show that no individual sector's growth acceleration is sufficient for Ghana to reach MIC status by 2015. Manufacturing growth is constrained by its high dependency on agricultural inputs indicating the need for diversification. Services can support rather than drive economy-wide growth. Agriculture must remain the mainstay of economy-wide growth. While this will delay structural change in sectoral composition, it demonstrates that emphasizing agriculture is a viable option for some countries to reach MIC status.     

Some cautions on the use of nonlinear panel unit root tests: Evidence from a modified series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relevance of applying nonlinear panel unit root test to examine the non-linear mean reversion behaviors of real exchange rates. We find that nonlinear panel unit root test may achieve lower power performance as compared to its alternative of linear panel unit test when the data generating process does not contain significant non-linear components. This finding post cautions to researchers in modeling and testing real exchanges behavior. We also develop a modified series-specific nonlinear panel unit root test and find evidence in favor of purchasing power parity hypothesis for China's four ASEAN trading partners in the period of February 1997 to August 2009.     

A proposal for social pricing of water supply in Côte d'Ivoire

We consider the design of a nonlinear social tariff for residential water in Côte d'Ivoire, which is a case of a monopolistic private operator supplying a population of heterogeneous consumers. The proposed optimal tariff includes an initial “social” block with a low unit price, and higher consumption blocks with a monopoly pricing rule. This optimal nonlinear tariff is calibrated using econometric estimates of a panel-data residential water demand equation. Welfare changes associated with moving from the actual tariff to approximations of the optimal pricing system are computed under different tariff scenarios. We find that gains in consumer welfare would outweigh losses in producer surplus in a majority of Ivorian local communities.     

Complementarities in innovation policy

This paper develops a framework for testing discrete complementarities in innovation policy using European data on obstacles to innovation. We propose a discrete test of supermodularity in innovation policy leading to a number of inequality constraints. We apply our test to two types of innovation decisions: to innovate or not, and if so, by how much. We find that the evidence regarding the existence of complementarity in innovation policies depends on the phase of innovation that is targeted (getting firms innovative or increasing their innovation intensity) as well as on the particular pair of policies that is being considered. The two phases of the innovation process, i.e. the probability of becoming an innovator and the intensity of innovation, are subject to different constraints. Interestingly, there seems to be a need to adopt a package of policies to make firms innovate, while a more targeted choice among policies is necessary to make them more innovative.     

Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation–growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between inflation and output growth using a novel panel data estimation technique, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, which takes account of the non-linearities in the data. By using a panel data set for 6 industrialized countries that enable us to control for unobserved heterogeneity at both country and time levels, we find that there exists a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth for the inflation rates above the critical threshold level of 2.52%, which is endogenously determined. Furthermore, we also control cross-section dependency by using the CD test modified to non-linear context and remedy cross-section dependency with Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations through Generalized Least Squares (SURE-GLS) and newly proposed Common Correlated Effects (CCE) estimation techniques. We find that these methods change the critical threshold value slightly. The estimated threshold values from these estimation methods are 3.18% and 2.42%, respectively.     

Testing stochastic income convergence in seasonal heterogeneous panels

In this paper we introduce a seasonal version of the Solow–Swan growth model and acquire an empirical income convergence equation. We take this equation as a basis to investigate whether income convergence exists in an OECD sample. To do this, we propose the test statistics under various asymptotic properties for some of the seasonal frequencies in the context of nonstationary heterogeneous panels. Critical values and moments of our statistics are generated and their finite sample performances are examined via Monte Carlo simulations.     

Per capita output convergence across Asian countries: Evidence from covariate unit root test with an endogenous structural break

This study investigates long-run convergence of per capita output across ten Asian countries over 1960 to 2014 by taking advantage of possible economic growth determinants, which may be responsible for setting Asian countries on a long-term steady-state growth path. We simultaneously examine the presence of output convergence in the region, as well as the statistical significance of these economic growth determinants, by using a unit root test with a stationary covariate. In addition, the study allows for the presence of endogenous structural changes in the time series under investigation in order to capture sharp drops in per capita outputs, which may be brought about by influential economic events, such as serious economic slumps in domestic economies or the global financial crises in 1997–98 and 2008–09. The limiting distribution of the covariate unit root test that permits structural breaks is also derived. The results show significant evidence to support the convergence hypothesis. In particular, asymptotically absolute convergence holds among Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. In addition, Thailand shows a convergence tendency in terms of asymptotically relative convergence toward Singapore. Malaysia, Indonesia, and India also turn out to converge toward Hong Kong in an asymptotically relative sense. Certain potential growth determinants, such as the trade/GDP ratio, inflation rate, government expenditure/GDP ratio, and quality of human capital, may help these countries achieve and maintain the long-run convergence process toward the reference countries in the region.     

Estimates of the steady state growth rates for some European countries

This paper estimates the steady state growth rates for the main European countries with an extended version of the Solow (1956) growth model. Total factor productivity is assumed a function of human capital, trade openness and investment ratio. We show that these factors, with some differences, have played an important role to improve the long run growth rates of Italy, Spain, France, UK, and Ireland. A few policies to improve the long-run growth rates for these countries are suggested.     

Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we investigate possible nonlinearities in the inflation–output relationship in Turkey for the 1980–2008 period. We first estimate a linear bivariate model for the inflation rate and output gap, and test for linearity of the estimated model against nonlinear alternatives. Linearity test results suggest that the relationship between the inflation rate and output gap is highly nonlinear. We estimate a bivariate time-varying smooth transition regression model, and compute dynamic effects of one variable on the other by generalized impulse response functions. Computed impulse response functions indicate that inflation–output relationship in Turkey during the analyzed period was regime dependent and varied considerably across time.     

Are financial development and corruption control substitutes in promoting growth?

While financial development and corruption control have been studied extensively, their interaction has not. We develop a simple model in which low corruption and financial development both facilitate the undertaking of productive projects, but act as substitutes in doing so. The substitutability arises because corruption raises the need for liquidity and thus makes financial improvements more potent; conversely, financial underdevelopment makes corruption more onerous and thus raises the gains from reducing it. We test this substitutability by predicting growth, of countries and industries, using measures of financial development, lack of corruption, and a key interaction term. Both approaches point to positive effects from improving either factor, as well as to a substitutability between them. The growth gain associated with moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile in one factor is 0.63–1.68 percentage points higher if the second factor is at the 25th percentile rather than the 75th. The results show robustness to different measures of corruption and financial development and do not appear to be driven by outliers, omitted variables, or other theories of growth and convergence.     

Exploring the existence of Kuznets curve in countries' environmental efficiency using DEA window analysis

This paper, using data envelopment (DEA) window analysis and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, examines the existence of a Kuznets type relationship between countries' environmental efficiency and national income. Specifically, it measures the environmental efficiency of 17 OECD countries by constructing environmental efficiency ratios for the time period 1980-2002. The analysis with the application of dynamic panel data reveals that there isn't a Kuznets type relationship between environmental efficiency and income. Allowing for dynamic effects we find that the adjustment to the target ratio is instantaneous. We also find that increased economic activity does not always ensure environmental protection and thus the path of growth is important in addition to the growth itself.     

Testing convergence of European regions: A semiparametric approach

We provide a reappraisal of income convergence across European regions over the last two decades by using a semiparametric partially linear model to approximate the relationship between the average growth rate of GDP per capita and the initial GDP per capita. Estimation results point out both country heterogeneity and non-linearity in the convergence process. The findings suggest that low income regions, in particular those from new adhesion countries, diverge while medium income regions converge and that there is no evidence of convergence for high income regions.     

Voracity, growth, and welfare

This paper explores some implications of the comparison between feedback Nash and Stackelberg equilibria for growth and welfare in a ‘voracity’ model. We show that, as compared to the Nash equilibrium, the Stackelberg equilibrium involves a lower growth rate, while it leaves both the leaders and the followers better off, i.e., the Stackelberg equilibrium is Pareto superior to the Nash equilibrium.     

Firm Size Distribution and Growth*

Abstract Empirical documentation of the sectoral distribution of firm size for a set of European countries reveals substantial differences. We study the relationship between productivity growth at the industry level and size structure. A positive and robust relation is found between average firm size and growth. We ask why size should matter for growth by considering the role of innovation to construct a test based on the differential effect of size on growth according to various indicators of R&D intensity. Our results indicate that larger size fosters productivity growth because it allows firms to take advantage of all the increasing returns associated with R&D. We argue that our test can be interpreted as a test of reverse causality, which lends support to the view that firm size has a causal impact on growth.     

Resource abundance and economic growth in the United States

It is a common assumption that regions within the same country converge to approximately the same steady-state income levels. The so-called absolute convergence hypothesis focuses on initial income levels to account for the variability in income growth among regions. Empirical data seem to support the absolute convergence hypothesis for US states, but the data also show that natural resource abundance is a significant negative determinant of growth. We find that natural resource abundance decreases investment, schooling, openness, and R&D expenditure and increases corruption, and we show that these effects can fully explain the negative effect of natural resource abundance on growth.