Animal spirits and the composition of innovation

This paper shows that the Schumpeterian model with both vertical and horizontal innovative research admits many more equilibria than the unique symmetric balanced growth path (BGP) usually highlighted in the literature. Each of a continuum of BGPs is characterized by a different composition of aggregate R&D (vertical versus horizontal).This appears if firms expect self-fulfilling “waves of enthusiasm” in the newly introduced sectors, as is very common in the real world. Pioneers are challenged by more outsiders and the first monopoly of every new good is likely to last less than in more mature industries: By expecting this horizontal innovation is depressed while vertical innovation is more intense. Such “waves of enthusiasm” have a positive effect on growth rates and a negative effect on consumption levels.     

Investment-specific shocks and external balances in a small open economy model

Abstract.  We set up a standard small open economy business cycle model driven by government spending shocks, neutral productivity (TFP) shocks, and investment-specific shocks. The model is calibrated to quarterly Canadian data and its predicted moments and sample paths are compared with their Canadian counterparts. We find that the model captures the dynamics in investment and in the trade balance better than special cases of the model where either one of the productivity shocks is omitted. More specifically, the model matches the variance of the trade balance-output ratio, its correlation with output and its autocorrelation. It also matches the output-investment correlation.     

A dynamic small open economy model with involuntary unemployment

Abstract It is well known that real business cycle small open economy (SOE) models rely on Greenwood, Hercowitz, and Huffman (1988) preferences to match the countercyclical trade balance observed in open economies, as well as other second moments, while standard preferences à la King, Plosser, and Rebelo (1988) are commonly labelled ‘ineffective,’ owing to their inability to yield the countercyclical trade balance. In this paper, I show that an SOE model with standard preferences and ‘involuntary’ unemployment with efficient risk sharing can obtain a countercyclical trade balance and match main empirical regularities in small open economies.     

Education,Innovation and Long‐Run Growth

We extend a second‐generation Schumpeterian growth model to incorporate human capital accumulation to clarify the general equilibrium effects of subsidy policies on human capital accumulation and R&D activities in a unified framework. Despite the conventional argument that subsidies always stimulate these growth‐promoting activities, we find that subsidies asymmetrically affect human capital accumulation and R&D activities. Our theoretical results suggest that research using standard models of human capital might find false negative relationships between education subsidies and economic growth.     

Modeling income inequality and openness in the framework of Kuznets curve: New evidence from China

This article tests the relationship between openness and income inequality in openness Kuznets curve framework. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimator is employed to establish the long run relationship between openness and income inequality. We add to the literature by noting that Kuznets curve fits the relationship between openness and income equality in the case of China. This evidence is new and in line with the Kuznets hypothesis that income inequality rises with the increase of openness and then starts fall after a critical point.     

Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Investment‐specific Technological Change

This paper examines a dynamically optimal subsidy policy in a continuous‐time version of the endogenous growth model developed by Krusell (Krusell, P. (1998) “Investment‐Specific R&D and the Decline in the Relative Price of Capital”, Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 131–141), in which investment‐specific technological progress occurs endogenously because of R&D performed by monopolistic firms. It is demonstrated that a combination of the time‐invariant subsidy for investment and the time‐variant subsidy for R&D enables the market equilibrium to replicate the socially optimal allocation.     

Indeterminacy in dynamic models: When Diamond meets Ramsey

We consider an aggregate two-periods overlapping generations model with endogenous labor, consumption in both periods of life, homothetic preferences and productive external effects coming from the average capital and labor. We show that under realistic calibrations of the parameters, in particular a large enough share of first period consumption over the wage income, local indeterminacy of equilibria cannot occur with capital externalities alone. It can nevertheless occur when there are only, even very small, vanishing labor externalities provided that the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and the wage elasticity of the labor supply are large enough. We also show that if labor externalities are slightly stronger, but still small enough to be plausible, and the elasticity of labor supply is larger, local indeterminacy occurs in a Cobb-Douglas economy. Finally, we show that a locally indeterminate steady state is generically characterized by an under-accumulation of capital. It follows therefore that while agents live over a finite number of periods, the conditions for the existence of locally indeterminate equilibria are very similar to those obtained within infinite horizon models and that from this point of view, Diamond meets Ramsey.     

GROWTH AND CYCLES, IN THE MODE OF MARX AND SCHUMPETER

I propose a theory of endogenous growth and cycles under competitive conditions. Firms choose how many workers to hire, how much to invest, and which technologies to use. New capacity, embodying labor-saving technologies, is costlier than old one but allows for a lower wage bill. The interaction between labor-saving innovations and changes in the relative price of labor is the source of growth cycles.     

Growing through chaotic intervals

We consider a growth model proposed by Matsuyama [K. Matsuyama, Growing through cycles, Econometrica 67 (2) (1999) 335-347] in which two sources of economic growth are present: the mechanism of capital accumulation (Solow regime) and the process of technical change and innovations (Romer regime). We will shown that no stable cycle can exist, except for a fixed point and a cycle of period two. The Necessary and Sufficient conditions for regular or chaotic regimes are formulated. The bifurcation structure of the two-dimensional parameter plane is completely explained. It is shown how the border-collision bifurcation leads from the stable fixed point to pure chaotic regime (which consists either in 4-cyclical chaotic intervals, 2-cyclical chaotic intervals or in one chaotic interval).     

Can productive government spending be a source of equilibrium indeterminacy?

This paper presents an examination of the interaction between indeterminacy and productive government spending financed by taxes in a one-sector growth model. In the paper, we show that the possibility of indeterminacy is positively affected by dependence on income tax financing and is negatively affected by consumption tax financing. Under balanced budget rules, a key determinant for indeterminacy is a revenue source for providing public services (i.e. income tax financing) rather than the presence of productive government spending.     

A comparison between the log-linear and the parameterized expectations methods

This paper compares the performance of a log-linear method and a parameterized expectations method in solving a dynamic general equilibrium endogenous growth model with human capital. Quantitative evaluation based on second moment statistics shows that the results provided by the two numerical methods are very similar in this framework whenever the propagation mechanism of technology shocks is weak. However, the cross correlations of some relevant variables in the RBC literature obtained from the two methods are significantly different when the model exhibits a strong propagation mechanism. The parameterized expectations method captures the sensitiviness of second moment statistics to the curvature of the utility function while the log-linear method does not.     

Economic integration and agglomeration in a middle product economy

We examine the interactions between economic integration and employment agglomeration in a neoclassical-growth, middle-product economy. There are two vertically integrated economies, with competitive final good firms operating plants in both regions and monopolistically-competitive intermediate good firms operating each in only one region. Immobile workers are employed with traded middle products to produce the nontraded final good; mobile workers are used with immobile capital to design and produce differentiated intermediate good inputs. While agglomeration and growth need not be positively related, trade need not enhance regional growth nor widen the skilled-unskilled wage gap.     

Financial market participation and the developing country business cycle

I explore the implications of limited participation in financial markets on a standard small open economy business cycle model. Despite its parsimony, the limited participation model developed in this paper improves over the standard model in terms of explaining two important features of business cycle facts of developing countries: high volatility of consumption, and high negative correlation between the trade balance and output. Limited participation model is then used to inspect the effects of financial development and integration on macroeconomic volatility. Under a standard calibration, limited participation model leads to the conclusion that financial development and integration are associated with higher investment and output volatility. Effect of more participation on consumption volatility is dependent on the specification of the risk premium function.     

The impact of the Interaction between institutional quality and aid volatility on growth: theory and evidence

We analyze both theoretically and empirically, the effect of aid volatility and its interaction effect with institutional quality on per capita economic growth. Our theoretical model, in which an aid-recipient government, operating in an institutional environment of some given quality (making choices over the distribution of aid), predicts that a negative effect of aid volatility on growth is mitigated by stronger institutional quality. We use panel data covering the period 1984–2004 for 78 countries to test this theoretical prediction. Using Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM) we find the relationship between growth and aid volatility is significantly negative and depends on institutional quality. Our baseline results are robust to various computations of aid volatility and foreign aid, time periods, sub-samples and additional covariates.     

Underground economy and aggregate fluctuations

This paper explores the role of underground economic activities as an explanation of differences in registered aggregate fluctuations. In order to do so, we introduce an underground economy sector in an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle model and calibrate it to the USA economy. We find that, at low frequencies, Europe fluctuates more than the USA, while its participation rate is smaller. The existence of underground activities rationalizes the negative relationship between participation rates and fluctuations of registered output. Our model accounts for 44.3% of the differences in aggregate fluctuations between the USA and European economies. Finally, the model generates implied sizes of the underground economy of 3.2% and 7% of the American and European output, respectively, which are in the range of those found in the empirical literature.     

Donations in a recursive dynamic model

Abstract.  This paper studies how donations respond to unexpected permanent changes in income and tax rates in a recursive dynamic model. The dynamic approach yields several interesting insights. If marginal tax rates are progressive, a permanent jump in a household's income increases its consumption and donations in the short run, but has no effect in the long run. The permanent income elasticity of current donations is likely to exceed one. If the marginal tax rate is flat, the jump in income raises consumption and donations in both the short and the long run. A permanent marginal tax rate cut raises consumption and donations in the long run if marginal tax rates are progressive, while it reduces donations in the short run if it has little direct impact on tax payments. If the marginal tax rate is flat, a tax cut has a positive effect on consumption in both the short and the long run, but has an ambiguous effect on donations.     

Patents and quality growth in OLG economy

This paper shows how heterogeneity in patent ownership across generations and lifecycle saving considerations qualitatively change the conventional implications of patent policy for quality growth. We study a close Overlapping Generations economy that grows through sequential quality improvements (“quality-ladder”), to show that for plausible values of the Inter-temporal Elasticity of Substitution (a) shorter patent length enhances growth (b) under exogenous innovation size loosening patent breadth protection spurs R&D investment and quality growth and (c) the effect of loosening lagging breadth protection on R&D investment and quality growth under endogenous innovation size depends on patents length. Our findings explore a new channel through which strong patents may hinder innovation and emphasize the importance of coordination in patent-policy across the different dimensions of the patents system.     

Inequality,growth, and environmental quality trade‐offs in a model with human capital accumulation

This paper develops a simple endogenous growth model where pollution exposure and vulnerability are unequally spread across the population, and growth and distribution are endogenous. In this set‐up, we investigate whether trade‐offs between growth, distributional, and environmental concerns may emerge. We show that a tighter environmental policy reduces income inequality and can improve both growth and total welfare. Immediate welfare losses, though, do occur, and are larger for countries that start at low levels of environmental quality (e.g. developing countries).     

Optimal accumulation in a small open economy with technological uncertainty

Summary. This paper analyzes the optimal allocation problem of a small trading country facing an uncertain technology. It is involved in production of many commodities. Differentiability cannot be guaranteed, hence, the Ramsey-Euler condition of optimality needs to be modified. From the optimality criterion, we derive a pair of conditions, which does not require differentiability. If “enough” uncertainty is allowed, the sequence of the distribution functions of investment expenditure converges uniformly to a unique invariant measure. In addition to the weak convergence of the stochastic process of investment expenditure we also have the sequences of the stochastic process of investment expenditure converging weakly. Received: September 8, 1994; revised version: September 25, 1997     

A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market

An optimizing model of a small open emerging market economy (SOEME) with dualistic labor markets and two types of consumers, delivers a tractable model for monetary policy. Differences between the SOEME and the SOE are derived. Parameters depend on features of the labor market and on consumption inequality, and affect the natural interest rate, terms of trade and potential output. The supply curve turns out to be flatter and more volatile, with a larger number of shift factors, including policy-determined terms of trade. A simple basic version of the model is simulated in order to compare different policy targets in response to a cost shock. Flexible domestic inflation targeting gives the lowest volatility although there are trade-offs. Exchange rate volatility is relatively lower but still makes a major contribution to controlling inflation. Flexible CPI inflation targeting performs better when combined with some kind of managed floating. Inflation targeting has to be flexible. With more backward-looking behavior the policy response to a shock is reduced.