Capital Structure and Debt Priority

We study a defaultable firm's debt priority structure in a simple structural model where the firm issues senior and junior bonds and is subject to both liquidity and solvency risks. Assuming that the absolute priority rule prevails and that liquidation is immediate upon default, we determine the firm's interior optimal priority structure along with its optimal capital structure. We also obtain closed‐form solutions for the market values of the firm's debt and equity. We find that the magnitude of the spread differential between junior and senior bond yields is positively, but not linearly related to the total debt level and the riskiness of assets. Finally, we provide an in‐depth analysis of probabilities of default and the term structure of credit spreads.     

A structural model for credit risk with switching processes and synchronous jumps

This paper studies a switching regime version of Merton's structural model for the pricing of default risk. The default event depends on the total value of the firm's asset modeled by a switching Lévy process. The novelty of this approach is to consider that firm's asset jumps synchronously with a change in the regime. After a discussion of dynamics under the risk neutral measure, two models are presented. In the first one, the default happens at bond maturity, when the firm's value falls below a predetermined barrier. In the second version, the firm can enter bankruptcy at multiple predetermined discrete times. The use of a Markov chain to model switches in hidden external factors makes it possible to capture the effects of changes in trends and volatilities exhibited by default probabilities. With synchronous jumps, the firm's asset and state processes are no longer uncorrelated. Finally, some econometric evidence that switching Lévy processes, with synchronous jumps, fit well historical time series is provided.     

The Cross‐Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton ( 1974 ): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent with theory, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or risk‐neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the “distress puzzle”—the lack of a positive relation between equity returns and default probabilities—reported in previous studies.     

Value chain capability,value strategies and firm default risk

Firm stakeholders are paying more attention to the firm risks rather than merely focusing on returns. Among those risks, a firm's ability to repay its debt increasingly becomes a yardstick to evaluate a firm and predict the security level of returning its borrowings. This situation is directly related to a firm's default risk. The current article links the firm's value strategies and capabilities to firm default risk reduction. Specifically, this article conceptualizes and operationalizes a new firm capability, value chain capability, and examines how this capability and two firm value strategies, R&D and advertising, reduce the firm's default risk. Meanwhile, the authors formulate the value chain capability's moderating effects on the relationships between the two value strategies and firm default risk. The findings suggest that value chain capability and advertising help the firm reduce default risk. R&D will have the same effect only when a firm has high value chain capability.     

Employee firing costs and accounting conservatism: Evidence from wrongful discharge laws

This paper identifies the causal effect of a firm's employee firing costs on its conditional conservatism, using the staggered adoption of US state wrongful discharge laws (WDLs) that increase a firm's cost of firing employees. We find that the adoption of WDLs leads to a significant increase in conditional conservatism. This result is greater for firms that are more labor-intensive, have higher propensities to fire employees, make more firm-specific investments and have greater risk. Overall, our findings support the view that higher firing costs lead to greater demand for conditional conservatism to decrease investment inefficiencies because higher firing costs make inefficient investments (including overinvestment in negative-net present value (NPV) projects and delays in disinvesting poorly performing projects) costlier for the firm.     

Strategic Default and Equity Risk Across Countries

We show that the prospect of a debt renegotiation favorable to shareholders reduces the firm's equity risk. Equity beta and return volatility are lower in countries where the bankruptcy code favors debt renegotiations and for firms with more shareholder bargaining power relative to debt holders. These relations weaken as the country's insolvency procedure favors liquidations over renegotiations. In the limit, when debt contracts cannot be renegotiated, equity risk is independent of shareholders' incentives to default strategically. We argue that these findings support the hypothesis that the threat of strategic default can reduce the firm's equity risk.     

Moody's correlated binomial default distributions for inhomogeneous portfolios

This paper generalizes Moody's correlated binomial default distribution for homogeneous (exchangeable) credit portfolios, which was introduced by Witt, to the case of inhomogeneous portfolios. We consider two cases of inhomogeneous portfolios. In the first case, we treat a portfolio whose assets have uniform default correlation and non-uniform default probabilities. We obtain the default probability distribution and study the effect of inhomogeneity. The second case corresponds to a portfolio with inhomogeneous default correlation. Assets are categorized into several different sectors and the inter-sector and intra-sector correlations are not the same. We construct the joint default probabilities and obtain the default probability distribution. We show that as the number of assets in each sector decreases, inter-sector correlation becomes more important than intra-sector correlation. We study the maximum values of the inter-sector default correlation. Our generalization method can be applied to any correlated binomial default distribution model that has explicit relations to the conditional default probabilities or conditional default correlations, e.g. Credit Risk⁺, implied default distributions. We also compare some popular CDO pricing models from the viewpoint of the range of the implied tranche correlation.     

Corporate Lobbying,Visibility and Accounting Conservatism

In this study, we examine the relationship between a firm's lobbying activities and financial reporting quality using a US setting where public scrutiny of corporate political activities is high. More importantly, we examine whether and how a firm's visibility shapes the relationship between its corporate lobbying activities and accounting conservatism. Adopting annual lobbying expenditure data to measure firms’ lobbying activities, and using a propensity‐score‐matching methodology to control for differences in firm characteristics between lobbying and non‐lobbying firms, we find a positive relationship between a firm's lobbying intensity and the degree of accounting conservatism in its financial reporting. We further find this positive relationship to be more pronounced in lobbying firms with a higher level of visibility. These results are robust after controlling for a firm's political connections, across various conditional conservatism measures, and across a number of visibility measures including firm size, the number of analysts following the firm, the age of the firm, the number of foreign stock exchanges that the firm is cross‐listed in, and the level of the firm's media coverage. Together, our findings add to the literature on how firms’ political activities shape their accounting practices in general, and accounting conservatism in particular. More importantly, our findings suggest that the heightened public attention paid to political activities in the US yields incentives for firms to be more conservative in their accounting practices.     

Default and Recovery Risk Dependencies in a Simple Credit Risk Model

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between credit quality, recovery rate, and correlation. The paper finds that rating grade, rating shift, and macroeconomic factors provide a highly significant explanation for default risk and recovery risk of US bond issues. The empirical data suggest that default and recovery processes are highly correlated. Therefore, a joint approach is required for estimating time‐varying default probabilities and recovery rates that are conditional on default. This paper develops and applies such a model.     

Optimal Security Design and Dynamic Capital Structure in a Continuous-Time Agency Model

We derive the optimal dynamic contract in a continuous‐time principal‐agent setting, and implement it with a capital structure (credit line, long‐term debt, and equity) over which the agent controls the payout policy. While the project's volatility and liquidation cost have little impact on the firm's total debt capacity, they increase the use of credit versus debt. Leverage is nonstationary, and declines with past profitability. The firm may hold a compensating cash balance while borrowing (at a higher rate) through the credit line. Surprisingly, the usual conflicts between debt and equity (asset substitution, strategic default) need not arise.     

Reading between the ratings: Modeling residual credit risk and yield overlap

Credit ratings group firms by risk, yet yields are shown to overlap between firms of adjacent ratings. We model this by considering the residual risk arising from differences in the parameters of each firm's value process for firms with the same rating. To do so, our framework simultaneously incorporates jump default with Markov-governed likelihoods and continuous defaults in a default-barrier framework. We provide closed-form approximations for expected default time and tail probabilities, and empirically fit the S-shaped yield curve, intra-rating spread, and inter-rating overlap. Results are robust to time period, rating system, sub-rating, and common characteristics such as liquidity.     

Crisis dynamics of implied default recovery ratios: Evidence from Russia and Argentina

This paper extracts both the implied default recovery ratio and the risk-neutral default probability term structure for Russian Federation and Republic of Argentina US dollar Eurobonds during the 1998 Russian default crisis. This crisis provides a unique window into the impact of changing default probabilities and recovery ratio assumptions on credit-sensitive sovereign bond prices. For the Russian Eurobonds, the sample paths suggest a two-phase crisis revaluation. Shifts in default probabilities account for most of the initial price collapse. Marked decreases in the implied default recovery ratio dominate the second phase. Investors never cut their recovery value assumptions for Argentine debt.     

Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads

An important research question examined in the credit risk literature focuses on the proportion of corporate yield spreads attributed to default risk. This topic is reexamined in light of the different issues associated with the computation of default probabilities obtained from historical default data. We find that the estimated default risk proportion in corporate yield spreads is sensitive to the ex ante estimated term structure of default probabilities used as inputs. This proportion can become a large fraction of the spread when sensitivity analyses are made with respect to the period over which the probabilities are estimated and the recovery rates.     

Institutional Monitoring: Evidence from the F‐Score

The extant literature shows that institutional investors engage in corporate governance to enhance a firm's long‐term value. Measuring firm performance using the F‐Score, we examine the persistent monitoring role of institutional investors and identify the financial aspects of a firm that institutional monitoring improves. We find strong evidence that long‐term institutions with large shareholdings consistently improve a firm's F‐Score and that such activity occurs primarily through the enhancement of the firm's operating efficiency. Other institutions reduce a firm's F‐Score. Moreover, we find evidence that, while monitoring institutions improve a firm's financial health, transient (followed by non‐transient) institutions trade on this information.     

Corporate performance and firm perception: The British experience

Previous academic research has presented a theoretical basis for a relationship between attributes of a firm's reputation and its financial performance. For the United States, researchers have analysed the correspondence between market and accounting based measures of US firm performance and external evaluators' perceptions of the qualitative attributes of US firms. In this study, expert surveys on the qualitative performance of British firms conducted by the British publication, the Economist, which are similar in content to surveys conducted by Fortune magazine for US firms, are used to determine the correspondence between qualitative and quantitative measures of British firms' performance. Results indicate that differences may exist between US and Britain in the use of qualitative survey data on a firm's strategic attributes as a forecast of a firm's future quantitative performance measures. Results also indicate that for small firms, certain qualitative factors (e.g. capacity to innovate) may be of greater importance in forecasting accounting and security market returns.     

Leverage change,debt overhang,and stock prices

We document a significant and negative effect of the change in a firm's leverage ratio on its stock prices. We find that the negative effect is stronger for firms that have higher leverage ratios, higher likelihood of default, and face more severe financial constraints. Moreover, firms with an increase in leverage ratio tend to have less future investment. These findings are consistent with Myers' (1977) debt overhang theory that an increase in leverage may lead to future underinvestment, thus reducing a firm's value.     

Estimating the cross-sectional market response to an endogenous event: Naked vs. underwritten calls of convertible bonds

The literature on conditional event studies advocates the use of endogenous switching models to analyze cross-sectional variation in the stock market's response to corporate announcements of endogenous events. This paper proposes the use of a flexible Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for estimating such models. The Bayesian MCMC approach offers several advantages over the Heckman–Lee two-stage estimation approach. In particular, analysis of the “treatment effect” (the difference between the observed and counter-factual outcomes) controls for the endogeneity of the firm's choice. As an application, the paper examines the market's response to naked and underwritten calls of convertible bonds. The paper reports evidence that the market's response to calls of convertible bonds is correlated with the private information partially revealed by the firm's choice of call type. However, although the average treatment effect associated with an underwritten call is negative, it is not significantly different from zero.     

Rating-based CDS curves

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the extent to which term structure of individual credit default swap (CDS) spreads can be explained by the firm's rating. Using the Nelson–Siegel model, we construct, for each day, CDS curves from a cross-section of CDS spreads for each rating class. We find that individual CDS deviations from the curve tend to diminish over time and CDS spreads converge towards the fitted curves. The likelihood of convergence increases with the absolute size of the deviation. The convergence is especially stable if CDS spreads are lower relative to the rating-based curve. Trading strategies exploiting the convergence generate an average return of 3.7% (5-day holding period) and 9% (20-day holding period).     

CEO investment of deferred compensation plans and firm performance

We study how US chief executive officers (CEOs) invest their deferred compensation plans depending on the firm's profitability. By looking at the correlation between the CEO's return on these plans and the firm's stock return, we show that deferred compensation is to a large extent invested in the company equity in good times and divested from it in bad times. The divestment from company equity in bad times arguably reflects CEOs' incentive to abandon the firm and to invest in alternative instruments to preserve the value of their deferred compensation plans. This result suggests that the incentive alignment effects of deferred compensation crucially depend on the firm's health status.     

Does short selling affect a firm's financial constraints?

Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007‐2017, we examine the impact of short sales on a firm's financial constraints. We develop three conceptual frameworks, the negative information effect, the undervaluation effect, and the deterrent effect, based on the prevailing theories and conduct an in-depth empirical analysis using the difference-in-differences, propensity score matching, and instrumental variable methods. Our findings suggest that: (1) Short sales generally worsen a firm's financial constraints by reducing its ability of raising cheap and overvalued external capital. (2) A shortable firm's financial constraints deteriorate more seriously in the case of higher credit risk or information asymmetry. (3) When a firm becomes shortable, its negative media coverage increases, external financing cost rises, and the amount of new external financing decreases. (4) The adverse impact of short sales on financial constraints is more pronounced for inefficient state-owned firms and mainly concentrates in the short term. Collectively, these results support the underlying logic of the negative information effect. However, further analysis shows that: (1) The deterrent effect also exists but is much weaker than the negative information effect. (2) The strength of the two effects will “wan and wax” with time or circumstances. Thus, the deterrent effect may outweigh the negative information effect by easing a firm's financial constraints in some cases, such as in the long term after short sales deregulation and when short sales magnitude is low or the managers are more sensitive to the decline of stock price. Our paper provides new insights into the impact of shorts sales on financial constraints, revealing some unique Chinese features compared to the US market and offering valuable lessons to other emerging markets.