A panel data approach to the demand for money and the effects of financial reforms in the Asian countries

Alternative panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 14 Asian countries from 1970 to 2005. The effects of financial reforms are analyzed with estimates for two sets of sub-samples and two break dates. Our results show that money demand function has been stable and financial reforms are yet to have any significant effects. Since there is no evidence for instability in the demand for money, the central banks of these countries should use money supply, instead of the rate of interest, as the monetary policy instrument.     

汇率变动与我国货币需求非线性误差修正

文章引入汇率变动变量对开放经济条件下我国货币需求函数进行研究.经验结果表明:(1)汇率变动是影响我国长期货币需求稳定的关键因素,且汇率变动对我国货币需求有正向的影响;(2)线性误差修正模型描述我国广义货币需求动态并不合适,非线性误差修正模型则能对广义货币需求的短期动态机制进行较好的解释.     

The (in)stability of money demand in the euro area: lessons from a cross-country analysis

The instability of standard money demand functions has undermined the role of monetary aggregates for monetary policy analysis in the euro area. This paper uses country-specific monetary aggregates to shed more light on the economics behind the instability of euro area money demand. Our results obtained from panel estimation indicate that the observed instability of standard money demand functions could be explained by omitted variables like e.g. technological progress that are important for money demand but constant across member countries.     

The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation

This article contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analysing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of money has its limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models, and it worsens forecasting accuracy of partial equilibrium models. Finally, nonmonetary models dominate monetary models in an all-out horserace.     

Money demand in the Dominican Republic

This paper investigates a demand for money relationship for the Dominican Republic. The financial system of the Dominican Republic is underdeveloped, and there are no suitable domestic data on the opportunity cost of holding money. Economic links with the USA suggest a possible role for a foreign interest rate effect and a currency substitution effect in the demand for domestic money. A long-run demand for money relationship is developed from the perspective of alternative estimation methodologies, and it is shown that a 'literature standard' specification augmented by foreign monetary variables is robust. The ensuing short-run dynamic model is adequate, stable and suggests an important role for expected inflation, and a real bilateral exchange rate with the USA. A number of policy implications for the Dominican Republic are drawn from the results.     

SCALE ECONOMIES AND HETEROGENEITY IN BUSINESS MONEY DEMAND: THE ITALIAN EXPERIENCE

This paper investigates the demand for money by firms and the existence of economies of scale in the Italian manufacturing industry. We estimate a model for cash elaborated by Fujiki and Mulligan using a different estimation procedure from the previous literature. We then introduce an iterative procedure based on backward exclusion of firms from model estimation which points out the high heterogeneity of Italian companies in money demand. Our estimates show that the Italian manufacturing industry, considered as a whole, does not enjoy scale economies in money demand. However, our iterative procedure points out that the cause of this result has to be ascribed to small firms which are characterized by thin cash money holdings and a consequent very modest opportunity cost.     

Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.     

Effects of financial innovations on the money demand function: a Canadian evidence

A money demand function for the Candian economy has been estimated to explore if recent financial innovations have caused any significant change in the structural relationship between the demand for money and its determinants. Two sets of estimation results have been analysed: the first set is obtained by estimating a standard money demand function for several overlapping sample periods and the other set is obtained by estimating a modified version which included a dummy or a ratchet variable to capture the effects of innovations. The estimated equations have been used to generate ex-post simulations and forecasts. The results suggest that innovations have displaced the money demand function in the early 1980s. It also appears that the incorporation of approriate innovation variables improves the predictive performance of the money demand function.     

人民币境外存量、国际收支 与人民币国际化进程*

人民币国际化问题已成为各国学者研究的热点。本文依据弗里德曼货币需求函数设立国内货币需求模型,并基于间接测算法和模型稳定性检验结果,选取1992-2003年的季度数据估测2004-2014年季度人民币境外存量,以此作为人民币国际化的衡量标准。在此基础上运用协整理论、格兰杰（Granger）因果检验、脉冲分析法等时间序列处理方法对我国现有的国际收支结构、经济规模、实际汇率及人民币国际化之间的动态关系进行实证分析。本文研究发现,上述变量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,我国经济规模扩大、经常项目顺差和人民币稳步升值有利于推动人民币国际化进程,而资本和金融项目顺差会对人民币国际化产生阻碍作用。因此,在发展国民经济及维持人民币币值坚挺的同时,合理调整我国国际收支双顺差结构也是人民币国际化进程的客观要求。     

ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY,MONETARY UNCERTAINTY AND THE DEMAND FOR MONEY IN AUSTRALIA

The demand for money and its stability in Australia has received a great deal of attention in the past and has resulted in its own literature. Depending upon estimation method and period of analysis, previous research has provided mixed findings. By including a measure of economic uncertainty and a measure of monetary uncertainty (both GARCH‐based) in the long‐run money demand for M3, and by using the bounds testing approach under which variables could be stationary or non‐stationary, we provide strong evidence that the M3 money demand in Australia is stable. Both uncertainty measures do have short‐run as well as long‐run effects on the demand for M3 in Australia, factors that previous research did not consider.     

Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks

Time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 11 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for which consistent quarterly data are available. The effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub-samples. Our results for the post-reform sub-samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased.     

超额需求不连续时一般均衡分析的新路径

传统的证明一般均衡存在性的方法都必须以连续的超额需求函数为条件。本文提供一种新方法突破这一局限。一般均衡分析中的个人择优问题是一个非线性规划问题,本文用动态规划方法来处理这一非线性规划问题,从而就克服了不连续超额需求函数带来的困难。运用这一新方法,本文证明了超额需求函数不连续时的存在性。     

Consumer preferences,the demand for Divisia money,and the welfare costs of inflation

This paper uses neoclassical demand theory to calculate the welfare costs of inflation. It considers the demand interactions between money, consumption goods, and leisure, relaxes the assumption of fixed consumer preferences, and addresses the inter-related problems of estimation of money demand functions, instability of money demand relations, and monetary aggregation. It makes full use of the relevant economic theory and econometrics and generates inference in terms of long-run welfare costs of inflation that is internally consistent with the data and models used.     

Modelling money demand in open economies: the case of selected Asian countries

While early work on money demand estimation focused primarily on the importance of domestic variables, many studies in later years have suggested that foreign variables also influence the domestic demand for money in an open economy. With the rapid financial market liberalization in some of the Asian economies in the last couple of decades, open economy factors have become very important in the determination of money demand. Therefore, this paper aims to ascertain the degree to which foreign opportunity cost variables influence money demand in the Philippines, Singapore and South Korea. Cointegration analysis is performed and an error correction model estimated using quarterly time-series data. The empirical results support the inclusion of foreign opportunity cost variables in the money demand function.     

Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment

The paper provides new evidence on the causal relationship between money and price for the euro area using quarterly data for the period 1980 to 2006, employing two alternative methods of estimation: the vector error correction (VEC) and time-varying coefficient (TVC) estimation techniques. The latter technique has the advantage over the former technique in that it can deal with possible specification biases and spurious relationships that may have arisen from structural changes. The empirical results from the VEC method reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between money and prices. The results from the TVC technique suggest that money is acting as an exogenous process determining the price level.     

Money demand in China in the reform period: an error correction model

Based on integration and cointegration test findings, this paper constructs an error correction (ECM) model to evaluate the dynamic adjustment process of money demand in China in the reform period (1979 to 1990). The cointegration tests suggest that some long-run relationship exists among money demand, real income, price, and the real interest rate. The ECM model shows that the dynamic adjustment process of money demand maintains stable and significant relationships to most of its determinants.     

中国居民现金需求研究

本文通过一个动态 Baumol-Tobin 模型来研究中国居民的持币行为,该模型在以下方面改进了已有的研究:建立在动态决策基础之上,引入了货币化因素、居民存货行为以及货币调整成本。模型结果表明:现金需求函数中的变量之间的匹配性至关重要。同时函数的动态结构由债券一现金转换成本与货币调整成本函数的具体形式决定。最后,我们分别使用季度与月度数据估计了基于交易的误差修正模型(ECM),结果验证了该种设定下名义利率影响显著、通货膨胀率影响不显著的结论,同时表明名义利率的影响随时间而增强。     

中国居民现金需求研究

该文通过一个动态 Baumol-Tobin 模型来研究中国居民的持币行为,该模型在以下方面改进了已有的研究:建立在动态决策基础之上,引入了货币化因素、居民存货行为以及货币调整成本.模型结果表明:现金需求函数中的变量之间的匹配性至关重要.同时函数的动态结构由债券一现金转换成本与货币调整成本函数的具体形式决定.最后,我们分别使用季度与月度数据估计了基于交易的误差修正模型(ECM),结果验证了该种设定下名义利率影响显著、通货膨胀率影响不显著的结论,同时表明名义利率的影响随时间而增强.     

How stable is the demand for money in Greece?

Abstract

The cointegration technique is now a common method of estimating any money demand function. Numerous studies that applied this technique to estimate the money demand function in Greece, interpreted their finding of cointegration as a sign of stable money demand. In this paper, after incorporating CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests into cointegration analysis, we show that even though M1 and M2 monetary aggregates are cointegrated with income and interest rate, the M2 money demand function is unstable while M1 is stable.