The economics of metric conversion for small manufacturing firms in the United States

Several major aspects of the metric conversion process occurring in the United States are examined by comparing a group of sample companies that have converted to metric production with a control group of nonconverting companies. Data files were used to relate several explanatory variables to the degree or percentage of metric production for individual companies and to compare the financial characteristics of converting and nonconverting companies. Smaller companies, on average, did more metric work for a single customer than large firms. In addition, as the percentage of metric work performed by companies increased, their dependence on a single buyer of their products tended to decrease. The analysis of the conversion process as a function of financial variables concluded that the conversion process was positively and significantly related to 1) long-term profitability, 2) liquidity, and 3) the size of firms as represented by the number of employees. Additional documentation is needed on the metric conversion process in distinct industries by firm size to more fully understand whether the process of technological diffusion is translated from large to small firms or begins in small firms themselves.     

Trade in technology : Management decisions and pricing

In this article, a model of technology price estimation is developed. The process of trade in technology is seen as resulting in a partial transfer of the market in which the seller of the technology had previously sold his product to the buyer of the technology. Profit decrease of the seller because of market cuts is taken as the basis for the pricing of technology. The random nature of the useful lifetime of the technology is taken into account, and the influence of seller-firm characteristics on the technology price is analyzed.     

Forecasting the impact of new technologies on the future job market

This paper examines recent occupational projections in order to determine how new technologies will affect future job growth in the United States. The first part of the paper reviews the methodologies used to derive occupational projections, focusing on how adjustments for technological change are incorporated into the forecasts. The second part of the paper reviews the most recent projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compares them with projections produced by other organizations. The results reveal that neither high-technology industries nor high-technology occupations will supply many new jobs over the next decade. Instead, future job growth will favor service and clerical jobs that require little or no postsecondary schooling and that pay below-average wages.     

Fundamental obstacles to the use of scientific information in public policy making

In contrast to the prevailing view that more effective use can be made of scientific information in public policy formation, several fundamental obstacles to the effective use of science are identified and described. It is argued that any effort to bring scientific information to bear on public policy must show how these obstacles have been removed.     

Further research into a convention for measuring the state-of-the-art of products or processes

In a 1980 study, an attempt was made to provide some degree of quantitative precision to the term “state-of-the-art” by developing an SOA measure for computers and antibiotics. This study expands on the convention developed in the earlier work and applies the approach to five technologies: aircraft turbine engines, high-temperature materials as used in blades and vanes, manmade fibers, farm tractors, and coal gasification. Satisfactory state-of-the-art measures were developed for aircraft turbine engines and high-temperature materials, and the maturity of farm tractor technology was confirmed. The convention also revealed that manmade fiber technology has been in a refining mode since the introduction of nylon. Coal gasification has not gained enough commercial experience to merit a state-of-the-art measure.     

On the role of science in the postindustrial society: “Logos”—the empire builder

The hypothesis that language and DNA represent two stages of the same evolutionary path is briefly evaluated. Volterra equations, so useful in describing the dynamics of competing systems are, in fact, equally efficient in describing social behavior, as shown in numerous examples. The emergence of language first, and science later, interpreted as a metalanguage, are attributed to a “hypercyclization” of basic competing utterances in analogy of hypercyclization of quasi-species of replicating molecules in Manfred Eigen's theory of DNA development and evolution.     

A brief technology assessment of the Carbon Dioxide effect

Significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are occuring as a result of fossil fuel combustion. More than a four-fold increase over preindustrial levels may occur by the year 2100. Heating of the atmosphere, changes in precipitation patterns and global storm paths, and other resulting effects are sure to cause significant social changes. This article is essentially a methodological case study demonstrating a useful but inexpensive type of technology assessment. It summarizes current research findings on “the CO₂ effect,” and presents hitherto unpublished findings that resulted from a brief but systems-oriented approach. These findings suggest that most published forecasts of phenomena associated with a CO₂ buildup may be systematically low because various positive feedback relationships are not reflected.     

Interdisciplinary problems in doing impact assessment : The case of Lake Shelbyville

A multidisciplinary team of biologists, economists, engineers, planners, and sociologists were assembled to do an ex-post facto analysis of a flood control reservoir ten years after initial operations. Within the context of a research university, the authors suggest ways to 1) improve project administration, 2) combat disciplinary chauvinism, 3) facilitate the understanding and exchange of data across disciplines, 4) reward the work of graduate students in a fair and equitable manner, and 5) assist the principal investigator in achieving the goal of an interdisciplinary study. The importance of project associates in the day-to-day operation of the study is reviewed in detail.This paper details the administrative problems of the University of Illinois' interdisciplinary effort to examine the “real” environmental impacts of the Lake Shelbyville reservoir 10 years after it had begun operation. Lake Shelbyville is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir located in east-central Illinois. Land acquisition began in 1962 and the reservoir was in operation by 1971. While not implying that “apples and oranges” don't mix, problems do result when we try to bring together a group of disciplinary researchers. We write with the hope that the suggestions outlined here will keep environmental impact assessment research interdisciplinary. One of the reasons for the present “environmental fix” is the single discipline approach to environmental problems.A true interdisciplinary effort is necessary for a comprehensive assessment of the impacted physical and social environments, yet “interdisciplinary” can easily become a false label. If the principal investigator and researchers are not attentive to project administration on a day-to-day basis, the old saying about integrating findings “with a staple” can easily result. Rather than integrated assessment, the study report may resemble a series of miniature discipline based projects that read like the list of university departments.     

The end of a 400-year boom

The Great Discoveries, which began with Columbus, created a frontier that both eased European population pressures and poured enormous wealth into the Metropolis (Western Europe). A feudalistic, authoritarian society gradually gave way to a more open democratic set of nations. Familiar institutions were born: representative democracy and private-enterprise capitalism. Individualism flowered. During the twentieth century, that 400-year “boom” has come to an end. Population pressures on resources are now roughly similar, or worse, than those of pre-Columbian times. Humankind thus faces a “climacteric”—a coalescence of crises. The “ecological trap”, which imprisoned humans prior to the Great Discoveries, is once more closing. The questions this developed include: 1) is another frontier of comparable significance to the Great Discoveries in the offing? and 2) do the familiar politico-economic institutions of the era of the “400-year boom” require reexamination? The answers given are: 1) science and technology provide the only hope for a new frontier; but while advancing technology has brought many material benefits, it alone cannot do the necessary job; 2) the institutions of the American constitutional order should be reexamined to determine if they are suitable for the time of troubles that lies dead ahead. Several constitutional changes are suggested, to be brought about by a constitutional convention. In sum, a new social paradigm is required.     

Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.     

Plastic wastes and the market penetration of auto shredders

In recent years the increased interest in the recycling of plastic wastes has lead to the development of numerous technological approaches to utilizing plastic wastes of varying qualities and types. A major problem with these technologies, however, is the unacceptable contamination levels in the available wastes. This paper examines one area from which relatively uncontaminated plastic wastes can be obtained—shredder residue from automotive shredder operations. In addition to reviewing the historical adoption of shredders, this paper uses econometric approaches to investigate the extent to which the shredder technology has penetrated the market for scrap steel. These approaches suggest that the movement toward shredders and away from the more conventional baler operations that have historically been used to process retired autos is slowing.     

The brain, the mind, and the future

Within psychology, brain research, and the sciences generally there has been a greater emphasis on the investigation of phenomena in terms of present and past than in terms of the future. This restriction in time frame has led not only to a fragmentation of theory and research in all the sciences, but also, in a time of great social, political, and economic change, to a failure by social science to provide the kind of guidance through improved prediction that might help ease our passage through this global turbulence. To remedy this situation much more work is needed in the relevant areas of brain research, in a closely wedded psychology of consciousness and the mind as a whole, and eventually in artificial intelligence and systems analysis as a means of testing and advancing theory. This article examines the basis for such an advance in the work of Luria, Pribram, and others with the frontal brain; Sperry, Bogen, and others with brain hemispheric differences; and von Neumann and others in artificial intelligence and systems analysis. It examines the nature of the prediction task philosophically and psychologically, states a model for brain functioning and forecasting suggested by a synthesis of prior research, and reports the supporting evidence for this model from philosophy, psychology, cybernetics, and recent experimental and field studies. It closes with a consideration of needs for continuing research and the implications of advancement in this area for science and society.     

Technology forecast of space robots to the year 2000

Technology forecast of robots for performing assembly and maintenance tasks in space to the year 2000 is made on the basis of forecasting concepts of generation dynamics and precursors. Inputs were obtained from interviews with experts as well as literature review.     

Estimating the long-term effects of utility energy conservation programs: A Pacific Northwest example

The Bonneville Power Administration operated a Residential Weatherization Pilot Program from 1980 through 1982. The program provided free home energy audits to 7200 electrically heated homes in the Pacific Northwest and gave zero-interest loans to weatherize 4100 of these homes. The total cost of the program was almost $11 million.The pilot program and its regionwide successor are intended to provide benefits to the Pacific Northwest region for roughly 30 years in terms of reduced residential energy consumption. Therefore, it is important to determine the durability of the electricity savings due to the program. Estimates of long-term savings affect power supply planning in the region and influence the economics of the program itself (i.e., the level of funding that BPA can justify for the program).This article presents empirical results concerning the total and net energy-saving affects of the BPA pilot program 1, 2, and 3 years after participation. The total annual electricity saving experienced by households that received an energy audit and a weatherization loan averaged 5300 kWh 1 year after participation, increasing to 6000 and 6500 kWh 2 and 3 years after participation, respectively. The net annual electricity saving that can be directly attributed to the program for these audit plus loan households averaged 4500 kWh (15% of preprogram use) 1 year after participation and declined slightly to about 4300 kWh 2 years and 4200 kWh 3 years after participation.The article uses these empirical findings with a simple simulation model to estimate the effects of the program into the future. Assuming that electricity prices remain constant after 1984, total energy savings increase to a level of 7000 kWh, while net energy savings decrease to 3600 kWh for the audit plus loan households. Alternative electricity price scenarios are discussed.     

Consequences of increasing scarcity on affluent countries

A theory of continuous structural changes in countries and a theory of discontinuous structural changes are used to predict the consequences of increasing scarcity on countries with some affluence. The prognosis is disheartening. According to the theory of continuous change, increasing scarcity will directly or indirectly increase the inequality, centralization, disintegration, disturbances, repression, and both national and international conflict and will directly or indirectly decrease socioeconomic development, legitimacy, and democracy. These changes will be unpopular and create pressures for discontinuous change to prevent them. Furthermore, increasing scarcity will increase the desire for structural change and weaken the regime's capacity to manage the situation. Thus the pressure for structural change will be strong. Scarcity also interferes with the peaceful restructuring of democracies in their efforts to cope with the crisis. When these theories are used in predicting the future of modern countries under conditions of prolonged scarcity, they suggest that elitist democracies and elitist nondemocracies are likely to be restructured into egalitarian nondemocracies. Egalitarian democracies will survive as such if they are blessed with exceptional leadership. Otherwise they also might be restructured in the direction of egalitarian nondemocracy.     

U.S.-Japanese competition in high-technology fields

As Japan has moved abreast of the United States in the export capability of high-technology products, the competition between the two countries has intensified not only in private sector R&D but also in terms of increased governmental assistance and protectionist measures. This increased competition can be seen in the three electronics industry cases of semiconductors, computers, and robotics, and is specifically illustrated by Japan's VLSI and fifth generation computer projects and the FBI-IBM sting operation in Silicon Valley. All portend a greater technological rivalry, with continuing critical consequences for society.