通货膨胀压力下提高居民收入水平探讨

改革开放以来,我国在市场化改革与现代化进程中,经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,但通货膨胀和经济增长出现了同周期性,导致居民货币收入和储蓄存款等财富缩水。本文就通货膨胀对我国居民收入的影响进行初步分析,在此基础上提出提高我国居民收入水平的有效措施。     

人民币升值无法控制中国通货膨胀

<正>2007年以来,国内物价不断上涨,以居民消费价格指数衡量的通货膨胀出现近10年来的最高水平。很多人根据中国的通货膨胀状况,提出了各种控制通货膨胀的策略,甚至有人提出用人民币升值来抑制通货膨胀。本人通过对中国经济层面的分析,发现用人民币升值来控制中国的通货膨胀,是掩盖通货膨胀和本末倒置的做法,不但无法控制通货膨胀,反而会加重中国通货膨胀。要有效控制中国通货膨胀,应从引起通货膨     

人民币升值无法控制中国通货膨胀

2007年以来,国内物价不断上涨,以居民消费价格指数衡量的通货膨胀出现近10年来的最高水平。很多人根据中国的通货膨胀状况,提出了各种控制通货膨胀的策略,甚至有人提出用人民币升值来抑制通货膨胀。本人通过对中国经济层面的分析,发现用人民币升值来控制中国的通货膨胀,是掩盖通货膨胀和本末倒置的做法,不但无法控制通货膨胀,反而会加重中国通货膨胀。要有效控制中国通货膨胀,应从引起通货膨胀的源头出发,去掉被动发行货币的因素,控制好货币的供应量,有效地引导货币资本的有效投资,才是标本兼治的良策。     

我国经济增长与通货膨胀间的分析

中国经济的高速发展往往伴随着较高的通货膨胀,两者存在着密切的关系。本文通过年度数据进行了经济增长和通货膨胀之间的研究,得出经济增长率是导致通货膨胀的Granger原因,但是通货膨胀并不是导致经济增长的Granger原因。本文还建立了CPL与经济增长率之间的协整方程,由于经济增长率是诱导通货膨胀的原因,所以要控制CPL,对于经济增长速度控制也是必要的。改变经济增长的粗放方式,提高国内消费将成为以后中国经济发展的重点。     

我国输入型通货膨胀的成因及治理研究

我国通货膨胀产生的主要原因是输入型通货膨胀,深层原因是政府投资驱动型与出口导向型交替推动经济增长的发展模式,导致的经济结构扭曲,市场的自我修复功能弱化。针对我国通货膨胀,要多管齐下,综合治理。既需要在短期内运用财政和货币政策遏制物价上涨势头,又要从长期努力,通过产业政策、收入分配政策、税收政策等实现产业结构升级,增强消费拉动经济增长能力,解决制约我国经济可持续发展的深层次矛盾。     

后危机时代我国输入型通货膨胀的形成及其治理

后危机时代我国通货膨胀主要表现为输入型通货膨胀,深层次原因是政府投资驱动型与出口导向型交替推动经济增长的发展模式所导致的经济结构扭曲与市场自我修复功能弱化。针对后危机时代通货膨胀,要多管齐下,综合治理。短期内运用财政与货币政策遏制物价上涨势头,长期内通过产业政策、收入分配政策、税收政策等实现产业结构升级,增强消费拉动经济增长的能力,解决制约我国经济可持续发展的深层次矛盾。     

当前通货膨胀形势及治理浅析

通货膨胀问题已经不容回避,不可等闲视之。只有加快经济结构调整步伐,转变经济增长方式,并协调货币政策、财政政策和收入分配改革,相互配合,才能构筑起一道治理通货膨胀的真正有效的"防火墙"。     

通货膨胀与经济增长关系实证研究

使用1990年—2007年年度数据,构造小样本因果关系检验统计量分析中国经济增长与通货膨胀之间的关系,检验结果表明,通货膨胀对经济增长有一定的阻碍作用。进而分析通货膨胀的惯性特征,研究发现我国的通货膨胀也具有较强的惯性特征,即当期的通货膨胀对后期的通货膨胀有一定的影响,从而要求治理供货膨胀时要实施稳健的财政政策,坚持实施从紧的货币政策控制货币供应量,更为灵活、及时的治理通货膨胀。     

保持经济平稳较快增长与控制通货膨胀关系研究

分析经济增长与通货膨胀二者之间的关系,对控制通货膨胀、促进经济增长具有重要意义。在阐述通货膨胀和经济增长相关理论的基础上,研究了改革开放以来我国经济增长与通货膨胀之间的关系,进而提出了相关政策建议。     

当前通货膨胀的特征、影响和对策研究

2012年年初以来,我国通货膨胀表现出总体水平较低、CPI温和增长、PPI持续负增长以及CPI与PPI持续背离等方面的特征。出现这些特征有国际经济持续低迷、中国经济增速放缓、产能过剩问题仍未解决、刘易斯拐点导致劳动力成本上升以及价格传导机制不畅等多方面的原因。新时期的通货膨胀特征可能对市场主体的消费和投资行为、政府的宏观经济决策产生不同的影响。本文在总结通货膨胀特征、原因和影响的基础上,提出了新通货膨胀形势下稳增长、调结构和促改革的应对之策。     

Inflation Derivatives Under Inflation Target Regimes

Inflation targeting—the central bank practice of attempting to keep inflation levels within fixed bounds around a quantitative target—has been adopted by more than 20 economies. Such practice has an important impact on the stochastic nature of inflation and, consequently, on the pricing of inflation derivatives. We develop a flexible model of inflation targeting in which the central bank's intervention to steer inflation toward the target depends on past deviations and the policymaker's ability and will to enforce the target. We use our model to price inflation derivatives and demonstrate the impact of inflation targeting on derivative pricing.     

Inflation Targeting

There is substantial positive interest within the Federal Reserve in an explicit price level objective as a focus for evaluating Federal Reserve performance. Setting such an explicit objective would raise the question of whether price stability might acquire primacy among the mandates the Federal Reserve has received over the years.JEL Classification E31,E58     

Inflation Returns

China's November economic data suggests continued strong growth momentum.Industrial production rose by 19.2% year-on-year (y/y), well above the market consensus.Retail sales growth (15.8% y/y) remained healthy, despite being a bit lower than October (likely due to a holiday-effect distortion).Fixed asset investment growth slowed (32.1% year-todate versus 33.1% as of October), hut as wc discussed before, this data is not the best gauge of investment activity on the ground (see OTG, 19 November 2009, 'Watching cement dry').Consumer price index (CPI) inflation turned positive in y/y terms for the first time since February, up 0.6% y/y (versus -0.5% y/y prior).The challenge for policy makers is to balance the need to support growth with the need to contain the excesses that are building up as a result of the stimulus.     

“Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions

Inflation expectations are believed to influence actual inflation and therefore policymaker actions. However, methods usually employed to evaluate inflation expectations are insufficient. Survey methods either record economists’ forecasts of the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) (which isn’t what policymakers need to know) or consumers’ attempts to calculate their own inflation experience. Consumers have little chance to perform the calculations needed to accurately compute inflation. I propose functional forms to substitute for the heuristics consumers actually use to form inflation perceptions. I also propose adjustments to reconcile official price measurements with consumers’ perceptions. These adjustments are corrections for cognitive biases related to loss aversion and mental accounting.     

Inflation Returns

China's November economic data suggests continued strong growth momentum.Industrial production rose by 19.2% year-on-year (y/y), well above the market consensus.Retail sales growth (15.8% y/y) remained healthy, despite being a bit lower than October (likely due to a holiday-effect distortion).     

Inflation Returns

Positive y/y inflation is back which means rising inflation expectations are back on the radar Industrial growth steams ahead, while increasing project starts suggest the same goes for FAI Policies to remain stimulative, supporting consumption and wage growth into 2010     

Can a Higher Inflation Target Reduce Inflation Volatility?

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility. Using monthly data from 1913 to 2013, the results show that U.S. inflation and its volatility have been positively correlated when inflation exceeds a certain value, but negatively correlated when inflation is below this threshold. The evidence also suggests that inflation volatility is minimized between annual inflation rates of 1 and 3.6%, which includes both the 2% inflation target of many central banks, and the 3.5% break point predicted by the New Keynesian model of Coibion et al. ( 2012 ), but not the 4% inflation target recommended by Ball ( 2013 ) and Krugman ( 2013 ).     

关于抑制通货膨胀相关问题的思考

<正>目前我们面临着国际初级产品持续大幅上涨的外部环境,世界经济形势不确定因素增加,美元继续贬值,经济全球化时代中国已不可能独善其身,与以往通货膨胀比较,这次输入型通胀占有一定成分,全球性的通胀将会通过各种途径传导到我国。从国内来讲,多种因素叠加起来推动价     

通胀烦恼

对中国而言,赶上三件事,基本就躲不过通货膨胀:粮食歉收,经济过热,货币与信贷过量发行与投放。由此看来,2011年的通胀烦恼已成定局。如果折戟沉沙,中国可能面临与日本失去的20年比肩的困境,成为新一轮经济转型成本的支付者;但如果是同心协力闯过难关,那么中国会拥有再次持续发展的30年,和更久更远的未来之路。