German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates

The paper presents an empirical analysis of German dominance and asymmetries in the EMS based on a dynamic system of equations explaining national money market interest rates. The hypothesis of strict German dominance of the EMS is rejected. However, there are some noticeable asymmetries in the EMS. Germany is a relatively strong player and has been the least dependent country in the early phase of the system. Since 1983, German independence has diminished. In contrast, France throughout and Italy in the early phase of the EMS have been relatively weak players in the system.     

Author-itative interpretation in understanding accounting practice through case research

The way interviews are used in accounting research, and the way this research is written up, suggests that there is only one way to interpret these interviews. This invests the author(s) with great perceptive power and storytelling ability. What if different assumptions are used about how to interpret research, and how to present the ensuing findings? We give an illustration of what this might imply, using the notion of ‘reflexivity’. The setting for our illustration concerns a series of interviews with management accountants on the dilemmas they face in their daily work. We apply Alvesson's ideas on how to use metaphors to open up the interpretation of interview accounts. The aim of the paper is to shed a different light on the way interviews can be used and interpreted in accounting research. We assert that allowing for reflexive accounts is likely to require substantially differently written research papers, in which the process of discovery is emphasized.     

Public or private gatekeepers in non-consensual debt restructurings in emerging jurisdictions

In advanced jurisdictions, the choice of a non-consensual debt restructuring is between a public or a private gatekeeper model where either the court or the licensed insolvency professional respectively approves a restructuring plan that binds dissenting creditors. In the United States, the only gateway is found in Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code 1978, which requires court approval and gives the debtor a significant say in the outcome. In contrast, in the United Kingdom, there exist four gateways, only two of which require court approval (scheme of arrangement and restructuring plan), while the remaining two (administration and company voluntary arrangement) give significant powers to the insolvency practitioner to decide on the outcome. In emerging jurisdictions such as Mainland China and India, due to path dependency and lack of institutional capacity, the court-supervised model is chosen as the only or primary gateway to legitimise non-consensual restructurings though the insolvency practitioner has an important statutory role. Using the two jurisdictions as case studies, this article argues that such a choice has several initial benefits but also leads to several problems, including delays in the restructuring, does not necessarily improve substantive outcomes and does not adequately address the shareholder–creditor and creditor–creditor agency costs. This article proposes that for debt restructuring that involves the sale of the business as a going concern, the private gatekeeper should be able to decide on the sale and the distributions following pre-bankruptcy entitlements. Recourse to the court as a public gatekeeper should only be used for reorganisation proceedings.     

Testing for nonlinear Granger causality from fundamentals to exchange rates in the ERM

This paper presents evidence that two ERM exchange rates are Granger caused in a nonlinear fashion by relative money supply. This finding can be interpreted as evidence that the underlying relationship between money and exchange rates is nonlinear in a target-zone arrangement, which is consistent with the target-zone literature introduced by Krugman, 1991. Target zones and exchange rate dynamics, Q. J. Econ. 106 (3), 669–682. Moreover, we find weak or no evidence that relative output nonlinearly Granger causes the exchange rate. Thus, relative money is more important than relative output in explaining the nonlinearity in the exchange rate-fundamentals relationship.     

Equilibrium in risk-sharing games

The large majority of risk-sharing transactions involve few agents, each of whom can heavily influence the structure and the prices of securities. In this paper, we propose a game where agents’ strategic sets consist of all possible sharing securities and pricing kernels that are consistent with Arrow–Debreu sharing rules. First, it is shown that agents’ best response problems have unique solutions. The risk-sharing Nash equilibrium admits a finite-dimensional characterisation, and it is proved to exist for an arbitrary number of agents and to be unique in the two-agent game. In equilibrium, agents declare beliefs on future random outcomes different from their actual probability assessments, and the risk-sharing securities are endogenously bounded, implying (among other things) loss of efficiency. In addition, an analysis regarding extremely risk-tolerant agents indicates that they profit more from the Nash risk-sharing equilibrium than compared to the Arrow–Debreu one.     

Increasing marginal costs and satiation in the private provision of public goods: group size and optimality revisited

It is widely recognized that the degree of inefficiency in the voluntary provision of a public good increases with the group size of an economy. However, we find that only a slight modification in the conventional assumptions gives rise to a profound difference in outcome. In particular, we show that there is a case where the Nash equilibrium provision and the efficient provision will converge as the size of an economy grows. To show this, we assume individuals face increasing marginal cost of voluntary provision and their preference function has a finite satiety point.      

Geometric Brownian Motion Models for Assets and Liabilities: From Pension Funding to Optimal Dividends

Abstract

In this paper asset and liability values are modeled by geometric Brownian motions. In the first part of the paper we consider a pension plan sponsor with the funding objective that the pension asset value is to be within a band that is proportional to the pension liability value. Whenever the asset value is about to fall below the lower barrier or boundary of the band, the sponsor will provide sufficient funds to prevent this from happening. If, on the other hand, the asset value is about to exceed the upper barrier of the band, the assets are reduced by the potential overflow and returned to the sponsor. This paper calculates the expected present value of the payments to be made by the sponsor as well as that of the refunds to the sponsor. In particular we are interested in situations where these two expected values are equal. In the second part of the paper the refunds at the upper barrier are interpreted as the dividends paid to the shareholders of a company according to a barrier strategy. However, if the (modified) asset value ever falls to the liability value, which is the lower barrier, “ruin” takes place, and no more dividends can be paid. We derive an explicit expression for the expected discounted dividends before ruin. From this we find an explicit expression for the proportionality constant of the upper barrier that maximizes the expected discounted dividends. If the initial asset value is the optimal upper barrier, there is a particularly simple and intriguing expression for the expected discounted dividends, which can be interpreted as the present value of a deterministic perpetuity with exponentially growing payments.     

Classifications Manipulation and Nash Accounting Standards

This paper studies a model of "classifications manipulation" in which accounting reports consist of one of two binary classifications, preparers of accounting reports prefer one classification over the other, an accounting standard designates the official requirements that have to be met to receive the preferred classification, and preparers may engage in "classifications manipulation" in order to receive their preferred accounting classification. The possibility of classifications manipulation creates a distinction between the official classification described in the statement of the accounting standard and the de facto classification, determined by the "shadow standard" actually adopted by preparers. The paper studies the selection and evolution of accounting standards in this context. Among other things, the paper evaluates "efficient" accounting standards, it determines when there will be "standards creep," it introduces and analyzes the notion of a Nash accounting standard, and it compares the standards set by sophisticated standard–setters to those set with less knowledge of firms' financial reporting environments.     

Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations

This paper extends the limited work on interest rate expectations to a previously unexploited data set that covers a broad range of EMS and non-EMS foreign currency deposits. We corroborate the earlier finding in the literature that interest rate forecasts are not rational and that agents do not use all available information in an efficient manner; this finding applies to the post-1990 period, thus questioning the assertion of Frankel and Froot [Frankel, J.F., Froot, K.A., 1987a. Using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations. American Economic Review 77, 151] that “the nature of the rejection of rational expectations strongly depends on the sample period”. Although forecast errors on EMS rates are smaller and less volatile than errors on non-EMS rates, expectations on EMS rates are nevertheless biased.     

A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS

This paper applies the multivariate version of the Forbes and Rigobon (2002) contagion test, as proposed by Dungey et al. (2005a), to detect contagion effects in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). Crisis and non-crisis observations are determined endogenously via a Markov-switching vector autoregression (MSVAR). We show that the MSVAR is suitable for this purpose, as it does particularly well in identifying the 11 realignments of the ERM. We examine whether Denmark’s rejection of the Maastricht Treaty and Italy’s competitiveness problems affected other EMS participants and find evidence for contagion.     

A Note on Simple Strategic Bargaining for Models of Money or Credit

Many papers on liquidity have bilateral trade with buyers constrained by their money holdings or debt limits. Axiomatic bargaining, typically Nash, determines the terms of trade. However, there are reasons to prefer strategic bargaining. I analyze a bargaining game that is useful in models of liquidity. Advantages include (i) it has simple microfoundations, both in and out of steady state; (ii) it is more tractable than Nash, but the outcomes share interesting features; (iii) the benchmark version is consistent with axiomatic approaches in the literature, while another version is not, but can still be used; and (iv) it is arguably realistic.     

Interest rate linkages within the EMS and bank credit supply

The exchange rates between the currencies of European Monetary System (EMS) members are essentially fixed between narrow bands mandated by the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). the intent of such a fixed rate regime is to enhance policy co-ordination within the EMS. However, it has instead led to German policy dominance within the system according to several recent studies. We examine the optimal dynamic credit policy of a bank in an EMS country that is subject to such German ‘dominance’. Our stochastic control model reveals conditions under which German monetary policies can influence domestic bank lending behaviour. It also suggests that banks may be able to hedge such risk exposure by increasing in size. the model offers ‘credit supply' based explanations for recent regulatory reforms in Europe towards unified banking and the attempts of several EMS members to de-link their policies from that of the German Bundesbank.     

Combining conditional volatility forecasts using neural networks: an application to the EMS exchange rates

The present paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting performance of four conditional volatility models applied to the European Monetary System (EMS) exchange rates. In order to provide improved volatility forecasts, the four models’ forecasts are combined through simple averaging, an ordinary least squares model, and an artificial neural network. The results support the EGARCH specification especially after the foreign exchange crisis of August 1993. The superiority of the EGARCH model is consistent with the nature of the EMS as a managed float regime. The ANN model performed better during the August 1993 crisis especially in terms of root mean absolute prediction error.     

Is Tax Harmonization Useful?

It is a widely acknowledged result of the literature on international tax competition that an inefficient provision of public goods can only be avoided, if taxes are sufficiently coordinated. In this paper we use a model where governments use commodity and factor taxes in the tax competition game. We show that governments will always choose a second-best efficient tax structure in the Nash equilibrium if they have access to a residence-based capital tax and either a destination-based commodity tax or a labor tax. Moreover, we show that tax competition need not foreclose third-best efficiency in a world with a restricted tax policy toolkit.     

An Examination of Alternative Hypotheses Concerning Depreciation of Buildings

Clinch (1983) examined the possibility that there are cash-flow effects involved in the decision not to comply with the requirement to depreciate buildings. He interpreted his results as evidence that non-compliance involved greater auditing costs than compliance and provided possible benefits associated with avoiding violations of debt covenants. In this paper, the analytical and empirical grounds for expecting increased auditing costs are discussed and it is argued that, in general, such cost increases may be expected to follow qualified opinions. However, as the sample tested by Clinch consisted predominantly of continuing qualifications, it is suggested that the increasedaudit fees reported by Clinch may not be attributable to the non-compliance qualifications. A further test of the bond-covenant hypothesis was conducted using an alternative research design. The results from this test are inconsistent with those reported by Clinch and with the suggestion that decisions not to depreciate buildings are driven by bond-covenant considerations.     

The European monetary system: A Note

This paper investigates the performance of the EMS since its implementationin 1979. The statistical results suggest that there has been a significant decrease in bilateral and effective exchange rates variabilities of the participating countries. The test results also point toward a narrower divergence in the development of national monetary policies across ERM countries.     

Equilibrium Pricing of General Insurance Policies

Abstract

A model is developed for determining the price of general insurance policies in a competitive, noncooperative market. This model extends previous single-optimizer pricing models by supposing that each participant chooses an optimal pricing strategy. Specifically, prices are determined by finding a Nash equilibrium of an N-player differential game. In the game, a demand law describes the relationship between policy sales and premium, and each insurer aims to maximize its (expected) utility of wealth at the end of the planning horizon. Two features of the model are investigated in detail: the effect of limited total demand for policies, and the uncertainty in the calculation of the breakeven (or cost price) of an insurance policy.

It is found that if the demand for policies is unlimited, then the equilibrium pricing strategy is identical for all insurers, and it can be found analytically for particular model parameterizations. However, if the demand for policies is limited, then, for entrants to a new line of business, there are additional asymmetric Nash equilibria with insurers alternating between maximal and minimal selling. Consequently it is proposed that the actuarial cycle is a result of price competition, limited demand, and entry of new insurers into the market. If the breakeven premium is highly volatile, then the symmetric equilibrium premium loading tends to a constant, and it is suggested that this will dampen the oscillatory pricing of new entrants.     

International CO2 taxation and the dynamics of fossil fuel markets

International CO₂ taxation may have major implications for fossil fuel markets. These effects must be taken into account in calculating the net gain from CO₂ taxation. The paper assumes that buyers have formed an agency that applies a CO₂ tax and sellers are competitive or constitute a resource cartel. When sellers are competitive, buyers' agency may use monopsony power by applying an import tariff. At the resulting time-consistent equilibrium, the sellers lose their resource rent. In contrast, the solution where the sellers' cartel maximizes its profits is time inconsistent. At the time-consistent Nash feedback equilibrium, the seller's monopoly power vanishes asymptotically. The sellers' export fee reduces the buyers' pollution tax. At this equilibrium, the buyers' pollution tax includes an import subsidy, and the tax falls below the present value of the marginal pollution damage. In the Nash feedback equilibrium, higher pollution damage may imply higher initial producer prices, although this effect is always the reverse in the Pareto optimum.     

Competition in markets with dominant firms: A note on the evidence from the Italian banking industry

In this paper we consider the Italian banking industry, where the eight largest firms operate at a national level, manage about a half of total loans, and have a notably larger dimension than the other competitors. We estimate a structural model containing a behavioural parameter, in order to assess the market conduct of the largest banks for the period 1988–2000. Our finding is that, in spite of their noteworthy size and significant market share, these banks have been characterised by a more competitive conduct than the Bertrand–Nash outcome: this is in line with the results of the latest literature of the field, for which in the banking industry there is often no conflict between competition and concentration.     

Taxation and international banking

The purpose of this paper is an examination of the relationship between taxation and the working of international banking arrangements. The main task is directed to the ways taxation determinations by national authorities affect the ways international banks go about their business. International coordination through the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is a major focus of the analysis. There is no general exposition of principles bearing upon international taxation. Rather, attention is directed to the determination of tax obligations in any one jurisdiction. Thus, there is a close scrutiny of the mechanics of taxation in the international setting bringing out the uncertainties and the imponderables in any application. Much attention is given to structural arrangement in international banking as well as capital arrangements in any one jurisdiction and how this applies to and affects the banking group as a whole. The result is to bring out the complexity of the agenda for tax applications on a common basis across internationally operating groups. Most jurisdictions recognise that they cannot await common agreements because new instruments and arrangements emerge at very frequent intervals and their tax implications have to be addressed. There has to be relief from uncertainty if markets are to develop effectively. Thus, there is in an importance sense of partnership between tax authorities and market participants in many countries. International deliberations have taken too long.