审计专业判断的逻辑构架分析

审计作业给审计判断提供了专业性的限定，并使之具有不特定的内涵。审计专业判断可以按判断对象分为四种类型；审计专业判断的逻辑链也可以按思维进程分为四个环节；为保证判断的效果，必须对关键性环节实施控制。审计专业判断的两个层次（总体判断与关键点判断）构成一个体系，系统地运用于审计作业的全过程。     

Trend extraction with a judgement-augmented hodrick–prescott filter

In this article, it is shown how judgement regarding the cyclical component of a series can be incorporated into the Hodrick–Prescott filter. An analytical expression for the trend extraction under judgement restrictions is derived. It is also shown that imposing judgement in the trend extraction procedure can improve the correlation between the extracted GDP gap and CPI inflation for Sweden, during the period 1981Q1-2007Q4.     

论审计判断偏误的形成机制及其防治措施

在审计实务当中需要审计人员在审计各阶段、各环节作出审计判断。审计判断的正确与否直接关系着审计结论的正确性和会计信息使用者的正确决策。而审计判断偏误的存在是导致审计判断错误的主要原因之一。因此，研究审计判断偏误的形成机制及其防治就显得十分必要了。     

电网项目后评价研究——基于改进模糊层次法

本文结合电网建设项目的特点,建立了电网项目后评价指标体系,并构造了多层次评价模型。针对指标和专家判断的模糊性,引入改进的模糊层次分析法,采用三角模糊数表征专家的判断信息,并构建了矩阵调整因子,以减少专家主观臆断所造成的影响。最后,通过算例验证该方法的有效性。     

The desire for land: Strategic lending with adverse selection

This paper deals with a setting in which borrowers and lenders place different values on an asset that can be used as collateral. Under adverse selection, lenders may rationally choose credit contracts with the object of attracting a relatively risky group of clients, so raising their chances of gaining possession of the asset through default. Contracts of differing attractiveness to borrowers can also coexist in equilibrium. When an ‘inside’ and an ‘outside’ lender compete, the latter placing a lower value on the collateral, and their loanable funds are sufficiently limited, a separating equilibrium may exist in which the insider offers a contract which attracts risky borrowers, whereas the outsider's contract is aimed at a safer group. If loanable funds are ample, the only equilibrium will involve pooling contracts, but the insider may still offer more attractive contracts in an entry game.     

Income and well-being: an empirical analysis of the comparison income effect

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the importance of ‘comparison income’ for individual well-being or happiness. In other words, the influence of the income of a reference group on individual well-being is examined. The main novelty is that various hypotheses are tested: the importance of the own income, the relevance of the income of the reference group and of the distance between the own income and the income of the reference group, and most importantly the asymmetry of comparisons, i.e. the comparison income effect differing between rich and poor individuals. The analysis uses a self-reported measure of satisfaction with life as a measure of individual well-being. The data come from a large German panel known as GSOEP. The study concludes that the income of the reference group is about as important as the own income for individual happiness, that individuals are happier the larger their income is in comparison with the income of the reference group, and that for West Germany this comparison effect is asymmetric. This final result supports Dusenberry's idea that comparisons are mostly upwards.     

逆向会计职业判断：成因探析及应对策略选择

新企业会计准则的主要变化之一是会计自由裁量权加大,更依赖会计职业判断。会计职业判断涉及公司的契约成本,影响经理人员的决策行为,改变公司投资与经营活动,最终对公司的价值产生影响。恰当的会计职业判断能够公允地反映客观发生的经济事项的实质,为利益相关者提供真实的会计信息,从而对有限的社会资源进行合理配置。但因会计契约的不完全性等多种因素影响,企业管理者往往会权衡背离标准带来的收益,而选择合法背离会计规则的逆向会计职业判断行为,以实现某些特定目标。本文试图通过对上市公司逆向会计职业判断的理论分析和成因探析,找到最有效的应对此类行为发生的策略。     

试论网络价值对大学生价值塑造的影响和冲击

分析网络价值传播对当代大学生的思想和观念冲击，能够帮助大学生树立良好的网络意识，培养正确的价值学习、价值分析和价值鉴别能力，更可以引导大学生自觉抵御网络不良文化，弘扬社会主义核心价值体系，弘扬中国特色社会主义文化，在实践中塑造时代需要的价值观念。     

Group decision-making in the shadow of disagreement

A model of group decision-making is studied, in which one of two alternatives must be chosen. While agents differ in their preferences over alternatives, everybody prefers agreement to disagreement. Our model is distinguished by three features: private information regarding valuations, differing intensities in preferences, and the option to declare neutrality to avoid disagreement. There is always an equilibrium in which the majority is more aggressive in pushing its alternative, thus enforcing their will via both numbers and voice. However, under general conditions an aggressive minority equilibrium inevitably makes an appearance, provided that the group is large enough. Such equilibria invariably display a “tyranny of the minority”: the increased aggression of the minority always outweighs their smaller number, leading to the minority outcome being implemented with larger probability than the majority alternative. We fully characterize the asymptotic behavior of this model as group size becomes large, and show that all equilibria must converge to one of three possible limit outcomes.     

资源丰度的模糊综合评判

资源丰度的估算涉及许多互不相容的指标,而丰度的界线又是不分明的,因而利用模糊综合评判来对其进行研究是一条有效的途径,并且计算方法也简单易行。通过模糊综合评判,可以全方位地了解各地区的资源丰度。     

石油销售企业配送网络优化研究

我国石油销售企业的配送网络运营效率较低,亟需对其进行重新规划和整合,以降低成品油流通成本。通过构建一个混合规划模型,得到配送可行方案集及其流通成本集;再运用模糊综合评判法,对可行方素进行定性评价;最后利用数值变换将两种评价结果相结合,以此确定配送网络的最优化布局。     

Model uncertainty and asset return predictability: an application of Bayesian model averaging

We investigate model uncertainty associated with predictive regressions employed in asset return forecasting research. We use simple combination and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques to compare the performance of these forecasting approaches in short-vs. long-run horizons of S&P500 monthly excess returns. Simple averaging involves an equally-weighted averaging of the forecasts from alternative combinations of factors used in the predictive regressions, whereas BMA involves computing the predictive probability that each model is the true model and uses these predictive probabilities as weights in combing the forecasts from different models. From a given set of multiple factors, we evaluate all possible pricing models to the extent, which they describe the data as dictated by the posterior model probabilities. We find that, while simple averaging compares quite favorably to forecasts derived from a random walk model with drift (using a 10-year out-of-sample iterative period), BMA outperforms simple averaging in longer compared to shorter forecast horizons. Moreover, we find further evidence of the latter when the predictive Bayesian model includes shorter, rather than longer lags of the predictive factors. An interesting outcome of this study tends to illustrate the power of BMA in suppressing model uncertainty through model as well as parameter shrinkage, especially when applied to longer predictive horizons.     

Level-k reasoning in a generalized beauty contest

We study how the predictive power of level-k models changes as we perturb the classical beauty contest setting along two dimensions: the strength of the coordination motive and the information symmetry. We use a variation of the Morris and Shin (2002) model as the unified framework for our study, and find that the predictive power of level-k models varies considerably along these two dimensions. Level-k models are successful in predicting subject behavior in settings with symmetric information and a strong coordination motive. Their predictive power weakens significantly when either private information is introduced or the importance of the coordination motive is decreased.     

Making economics more useful: how technological eclecticism could help

ABSTRACT

Keynes thought it would be ‘splendid’ if economists became more like dentists. Disciplinary economics has instead become more like physics in focusing on concise, universal propositions verified through decisive tests. This focus, I argue, limits the practical utility of the discipline because universal propositions form only a part of new policy recipes. I further suggest that, as in engineering and medicine, developing economic recipes requires eclectic combinations of suggestive tests and judgement. Additionally, I offer a detailed example of how a simulation model can help evaluate new policy combinations that affect the screening of loan applications.     

Volunteering a public service: an experimental investigation

In some public goods environments it may be advantageous for heterogeneous groups to be coordinated by a single individual. This “volunteer” will bear private costs for acting as the leader while enabling each member of the group to achieve maximum potential gains. This environment is modeled as a War of Attrition game in which everyone can wait for someone else to volunteer. Since these games generally have multiple Nash equilibria but a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium, we tested experimentally the predictive power of the subgame-perfection criterion. Our data contradict that subjects saw the subgame-perfect strategy combination as the obvious way to play the game. An alternative behavioral hypothesis—that subjects were unable to predict accurately how their opponents would play and tried to maximize their expected payoff—is proposed. This hypothesis fits the observed data generally well.     

The rise and fall of Railtrack PLC: an event study

Forming Railtrack was a key part of the privatization of British Rail (BR). Railtrack took over the ownership of BR's fixed infrastructure in April 1994 and its parent company, the Railtrack Group, was floated in May 1996 on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). Despite the group posting some excellent financial results in the early years, Railtrack's record on infrastructure improvement and safety was frequently criticized. This apparent inconsistency between shareholder interests and public service obligations culminated in Railtrack being placed in administration in October 2001. In view of this apparent inconsistency and the High Court claim for additional compensation brought against the government by a group of 49?000 small investors, the reaction of the stock market to 19 key events is modelled. Among other things, we find when Railtrack announced after the fatal derailment of a high-speed train near the Hertfordshire town of Hatfield that there would be a 6-month programme of emergency track repairs, the Group's share price was marked down, but it did not plummet. Even though Railtrack was in panic mode, it appears that investors decided to hold onto their shares, believing the panic would have no long-term repercussions. This proved to be a huge error of judgement.     

Congressional perceptions of emergent telecommunications

This paper presents the results of an interview survey of congressman and staff in regard to their perceptions and attitudes on the potential use of emergent telecommunications for communicating with constituents. Six channel configurations are identified as representative of emergent telecommunication characteristics. The paper describes the potential usefulness, advantages, and disadvantages of each emergent channel, as perceived by U.S. Representatives and senior staff in the stratified judgement sample taken from the 93rd Congress. The results indicate that as a group the respondents perceive cable television and information retrieval as potentially the most useful emergent channels, closed circuit television and the videoconference as somewhat useful, and cable TV polling and the video- phone as least useful. The effects of using emergent channels are perceived as being beneficial or detrimental, depending on the personal and political value judgements of the particular Representative or staff person, and on the specific conditions of use and applicable public policy assumptions. But because of the essential importance of constituent communication to congressman, both as politicians and public officials, many have favorable perceptions of new channels which offer a clear advantage over existing channels and which meet a well-defined need.     

Wealth and sensibility. The historical outcome of better living conditions for all according to Adam Smith

In this paper, I argue that Smith's commercial society is characterised more by restraint of self-command than by restraint of emotions through self-command, as usually stated. According to Smith, the appropriate degree of self-command varies with historical circumstances: better living conditions for all favour relaxation of self-command and lead people to express their sentiments more freely. I thus highlight a crucial link in Smith's thought between variations in general economic conditions and variations in moral judgement on the expression of emotions, or, in other words, between The Theory of Moral Sentiments and the Wealth of Nations.     

Whither Keynesian probability? Impolite techniques for decision-making

The critical literature on Keynes has provided extensive analysis of why individual agents may find convenient to adopt a “conventional judgement”, and what he meant by “polite techniques” used to save their faces as “rational, economic men.” This paper concentrates instead on impolite techniques of thought suited to deal with Keynesian uncertainty. The paper suggests that the thread going from Keynes's Treatise on Probability to the General Theory and its defence provides a positive analysis of decision-making under uncertainty, and that placing emphasis on this positive analysis simply means adhering to Keynes's long-standing commitment to a (surely peculiar) probabilistic set-up.     

COMPARATIVE EFFICIENCY BETWEEN COOPERATIVE,SAVINGS AND COMMERCIAL BANKS IN EUROPE USING THE FRONTIER APPROACH

We test competing hypotheses concerning the comparative behavior of shareholder‐owned commercial banks and stakeholder‐orientated cooperative and savings banks in European banking. One hypothesis is that the risk culture and business models of stakeholder and shareholder‐owned banks have become more alike and so cost efficiency has converged between bank ownership structures. The alternative hypothesis suggests that institutional differences do matter and lead, amongst other things, to variation in network effects and monitoring mechanisms producing differing behaviors and efficiency outcomes. By using a novel panel data set of 521 European banks during 1994–2010, we find: (i) mean inefficiency scores vary by ownership type and are lower for cooperative banks than for commercial and savings banks; (ii) there is a large variation in inefficiency scores among banks within each ownership type but the lower variance for cooperative banks indicates that they are the most homogeneous group; (iii) the inefficiency distribution of savings and commercial banks appear to arise from the same distribution, but this does not hold for cooperative banks. As such our findings are more consistent with the alternative hypothesis. Our first two findings buttress those studies that found significant differences between European banks with differing ownership structures, while our third finding on the significance of the cycle to the distribution of inefficiency is novel.