Economics of export subsidies under costly and imperfect enforcement

The present paper builds on the published literature on agricultural policy analysis under costly and imperfect enforcement by introducing enforcement costs and misrepresentation into the economic analysis of export subsidies. Specifically, the present paper examines the economic causes of cheating on export subsidies and the consequences of enforcement costs and misrepresentation for the welfare effects and the transfer efficiency of this policy instrument. Policy design and implementation is modelled as a sequential game between a government that designs and enforces the policy and the recipients of the payments. Two alternative policy implementation scenarios are considered. In the first scenario, export subsidies are paid to private trading firms while in the second scenario subsidies are paid directly to the producers of the subsidised commodity. Analytical results show that the introduction of enforcement costs and cheating changes the welfare effects of export subsidies and their efficiency in redistributing income to producers. The analysis also shows that, contrary to what is traditionally believed, the incidence of export subsidies depends on the group that is subsidised to export the surplus quantity – the way the policy is implemented. The results provide additional support for the contention that the economic consequences of cheating are highly policy-specific. Finally, the analysis reveals that when the government faces restrictions on either the volume or the value of export subsidies, cheating reduces the distortionary effects of the policy on international markets. This is true irrespective of whether subsidies are paid to trading firms or to producers.     

Welfare implications of reduced government subsidies to farm families: accounting for fringe benefits

In the past three decades, farm families have relied on government payments and off‐farm income to reduce income risk and increase total household income. Studies have shown that, as the income effect dominates, government payments tend to reduce off‐farm labor of farm operators and spouses. But that may not be true if one accounts for fringe benefits associated with off‐farm employment. Additionally, with looming budget deficits and the possibility of a reduction in decoupled government payments, farm families may be facing an altered economic environment. Our study addresses this issue by examining the links between government farm program payments and the ever‐important role of fringe benefits in the off‐farm employment of farm couples. Results from farm‐level data actually show that the marginal effect of government payments on hours worked off‐farm will decrease in magnitude when accounting for fringe benefits, ceteris paribus. These results support the notion that farm households’ welfare loss stemming from reduced decoupled payments may be overstated when models exclude fringe benefits from the estimation of off‐farm labor supply.     

No‐take marine reserves and illegal fishing under imperfect enforcement

No‐take marine reserves have been increasingly advocated as an effective means of supporting marine ecosystems and conserving fisheries resources. A major problem that can hinder the effectiveness of no‐take reserves is the incidence of illegal fishing, which has created significant ecological and economic losses in global fisheries. We construct a bioeconomic model to explore the connection between the effects of no‐take reserves and illegal fishing activities in relation to the level of regulatory control of illegal activities in the reserve and fished areas. Our parameterised model shows that the effects of no‐take reserves on both the extent of illegal fishing and the fish biomass critically depend on illegal fishing regulations and the scale and patterns of fish dispersal. In a fishery where illegal fishing can only be partially controlled, increasing the size of the no‐take reserve may result in a lose‐lose situation in which the level of illegal fishing effort increases and the total biomass decreases. Our results further show that when the pattern of fish dispersal is density dependent, imposing a stricter control on illegal fishing in either reserves or fished areas increases the aggregate level of illegal fishing.     

Investment,subsidies, and pro‐poor growth in rural India

This article reviews the trends in government subsidies and investments in and for Indian agriculture; develops a conceptual framework and a model to assess the impact of various subsidies and investments on agricultural growth and poverty reduction; and presents reform options with regard to re‐prioritizing government spending. Subsidies in credit, fertilizer, and irrigation have been crucial for small farmers to adopt new technologies particularly during the initial stage of the green revolution in the late 1960s and 1970s. But it is now investments in agricultural research, education, and rural roads that are the three most effective public spending items in promoting agricultural growth and reducing poverty.     

Cointegration and causality in international agricultural economics research

A review of literature on applications of Granger causality to problems in international agricultural economics research is summarized. The review relates to cointegration theory, and it identifies the areas where recent econometric developments may be of value. Testing procedures are outlined, and a discussion is provided on questions such as non-stationarity and asymptotic distribution of non-causality tests, the relationship between cointegration and causation, the relative merits of various testing procedures, and concerns about testing bivariate causality in higher dimensional models. Finally, a recent econometric development is discussed and its future use in applied research is discussed.     

The influence of farm input subsidies on the adoption of natural resource management technologies

Farm input subsidies are often criticised on economic and ecological grounds. The promotion of natural resource management (NRM) technologies is widely seen as more sustainable to increase agricultural productivity and food security. Relatively little is known about how input subsidies affect farmers’ decisions to adopt NRM technologies. There are concerns of incompatibility, because NRM technologies are one strategy to reduce the use of external inputs in intensive production systems. However, in smallholder systems of Africa, where the average use of external inputs is low, there may possibly be interesting complementarities. Here, we analyse the situation of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP). Using panel data from smallholder farm households, we develop a multivariate probit model and examine how FISP participation affects farmers’ decisions to adopt various NRM technologies, such as intercropping of maize with legumes, use of organic manure, water conservation practices and vegetative strips. As expected, FISP increases the use of inorganic fertilizer and improved maize seeds. Yet, we also observe a positive association between FISP and the adoption of certain NRM technologies. For other NRM technologies, we find no significant effect. We conclude that input subsidies and the promotion of NRM technologies can be compatible strategies.     

Migration and farm technical efficiency: evidence from Kosovo

This article investigates the effect of migration on farm technical efficiency drawing on a large and representative sample of agricultural households in Kosovo. A two‐stage estimation procedure is applied: a frontier technique to estimate the effect of migration on farm efficiency, followed by a propensity score based matching approach to robustly estimate the sample average effect on efficiency for different levels of migration intensity. Migration is found to have an efficiency decreasing effect, which is amplified for better educated workers. The observed negative effect of migration on efficiency is evident even at low levels of migration intensity.     

Measuring the effect of farmland preservation on farm profitability

Purchase of development rights (PDR) programs have been created in 27 states to preserve farmland resources. These programs seek to advance several societal objectives, including the protection of farmland from development, retention of rural amenities, and promotion of the economic viability of farming. Using New Jersey farm-level data, this study evaluates whether participation in a state PDR program improves farm profitability. The propensity score matching method is used to correct for selection bias arising from the voluntary nature of these programs. No statistically significant profit differential is found between preserved and observationally equivalent unpreserved farms in our full sample of 4029 farms. When the analysis is replicated across different farm types, we find weak evidence that the profitability of preserved residential lifestyle/retirement farms is lower than that observed for their unpreserved equivalents. In contrast, we find that small farms (<$100,000 in annual sales) operated by individuals for whom farming is a principal occupation earn $414 to $436 more per acre in profit than their observationally equivalent unpreserved counterparts.     

The incidence of agricultural policy on the land market in Poland: Two-dimensional and multilevel analysis

Research has shown that the reform of the CAP which broke the link between subsidies and production (the decoupling reform) has had little effect on farmers’ demand for land under the SPS (Single Payment Scheme) system. For this reason, in the conditions of the SPS, there is petrifaction of the structure of agricultural land, and an upward trend in prices on the market for agricultural land should not be expected to continue in the long term. Under the conditions of the SAPS (Single Area Payment Scheme), which applies in the EU-12 new Member States, the position in the market for agricultural land is different. However, most research carried out in Europe relates to the SPS system, where marginal changes in the value of land are identified as a result of the incidence of agricultural policy, as well as quantitative and qualitative attributes of particular properties. Under SAPS, these issues have not been sufficiently investigated. The authors have attempted to fill that gap, constructing a two-dimensional and multilevel econometric model for land prices in a leading agricultural region of Poland based on a sample of 653 transactions in the years 2010–2013. The aim is to determine how policy, as well as various quantitative and qualitative features, including location factors, affect the prices of land under SAPS. The results indicate, among other things, the key importance of the functional type of rural areas – properties in agrotouristic areas gained 43% higher prices on average than those in agricultural areas. Another finding of interest is that LFA and agro-environmental payments decapitalise the value of land.     

Financial consequences of cross-compliance and flat-rate-per-ha subsidies: The case of olive farmers on sloping land

Under the past Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) olive oil subsidy regime, farmers were eligible for subsidies on the basis of amount of olive oil produced. This led to an intensification of production and negative environmental effects on sloping land, such as loss of biodiversity and more soil erosion. In 2004 the olive and olive oil regime changed, with integration of support to olive farmers in the Single Payment Scheme (SPS). From 2006 to 2013 farmers receive a constant amount of subsidies, based on the average amount they received in the 4-year reference period 1999–2002.     

Estimating labor supply of farm households under nonseparability: empirical evidence from Nepal

This paper examines the labor supply of farm households in Nepal using a recently developed methodology that accounts for the simultaneity between production and consumption decisions of the households. Estimates of marginal products of male and female labor or shadow wages are obtained from an agricultural production function. An instrumental variable approach is then used to recover the household's structural labor supply from variations in the shadow wages and income, as well as other household characteristics. The findings reveal that both male and female total labor supply are sensitive to changes in shadow wages and income. Human capital embodied in education is found to exert a significant positive effect on output, but has no statistically significant impact on total labor supply of individuals. The results also rejects the existence of efficient labor markets in rural Nepal.     

Efficiency Effects of Access to Information on Small‐scale Agriculture: Empirical Evidence from Uganda using Stochastic Frontier and IRT Models

Low power home electrical items such as radios, mobile phones and televisions are an important source of agricultural information for small‐scale farmers in developing countries. To empirically test the effects of access to information from these items on efficiency in agriculture, we formulate a stochastic frontier model augmented with a technical efficiency model that controls for an index capturing farmers' ‘ability to access information’. The index is constructed with a 2‐parameter item response theory (IRT) model based on farmers' access to the electrical items. Using six rounds of panel data on small‐scale farmers in Uganda, we find empirical evidence of a significant and positive relationship between farmer ability to access information and farm efficiency. There is also evidence that the size of these effects is larger for more literate hence better educated farmers. Greater access to information also appears to be associated with increased variance of (in)efficiency and output although the form of the increased variances is underpinned by low risk of lower efficiency and output realisations and high likelihood of higher efficiency and output realisations. Our findings imply that access to limited quantities of electricity needed to power these electrical items can have positive farm efficiency effects, and hence the importance of off‐grid electricity (e.g. standalone solar panels) for small‐scale farmers in typically isolated communities in developing countries.     

Factors affecting farm growth intentions of family farms in mountain regions: Empirical evidence for Central Switzerland

Family farms in mountain regions are undergoing a progressive structural change and an ongoing shift in the allocation of production factors land, capital and labor. In Switzerland, various policy measures influence the re-allocation of these production factors. To understand the effectiveness of these schemes and to assess future farm structural change, it is useful to analyze the underlying drivers which support and hinder the emergence of individual farm growth strategies. We study the family farms’ growth intentions using a logistic regression model based on a combination of census and survey data on family characteristics from two mountain case study regions in Central Switzerland. Factors supporting farm growth intentions are the relative change in farm size in recent years, farm related sunk costs, farm diversification and farm size. We found no support for the hypothesis that farm growth intention is also influenced by the perceived personal situation represented by indicators for the perceived workload, psychological stress and financial problems. In addition, off-farm labor did not prevent farmers from stating growth intentions. Our empirical findings suggest that (i) the most important factors which support farm growth intentions correspond with factors driving observed patterns of structural change; (ii) limited availability of family labor may result in a new critical threshold for farm growth strategies; (iii) aims and non-pecuniary preferences of farmers will impede a rapid structural change in the near future.     

The links between management's critical success factors and farm level economic performance on dairy farms in Sweden

Management's critical success factors (MCSFs) are used to indicate how farm profits develop, but their usefulness as profitability predictors has previously not been analyzed statistically. This paper explores the usefulness of some commonly used MCSFs in Swedish dairy farms, by investigating whether the MCSFs are significant predictors of economic efficiency. Further, the paper takes a comprehensive view of evaluating farm level efficiency, in that all major input and output efficiency scores are estimated. Previous literature has focused on only one score, or on only one perspective. Our results show that cost efficiency is the more problematic part of the profitability process. Especially the allocative part needs to be improved. Moreover, the results show that the MCSFs milk quality, herd fertility and involuntary culls ratio may not work as indicators of economic performance, whereas milk yield per cow and the mastitis ratio are significant indicators.     

The law and economics of Canada's WTO litigation contesting U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL)

We explain the interplay of law and economics in the successful WTO challenge by Canada of U.S. mandatory country-of-origin labeling (COOL) measures for beef and pork, which hinged on origin of livestock used in U.S. meat production. Canada mounted a successful legal and economic strategy to convince WTO adjudicating bodies that the United States had violated specific WTO provisions. Canada's economic evidence shows that through costs of segregation the COOL measure harmed the competitive position of Canadian cattle and hogs in the U.S. market. Economic evidence was built into the strategy and cited by the WTO Panels in support of their legal findings that the COOL measure violated U.S. obligations under WTO agreements. Canada was awarded rights to more than one billion Canadian dollars in retaliation and the United States responded by eliminating the offending COOL measure. The COOL case demonstrates how economic and econometric evidence can be used in complex dispute settlement proceedings dealing with technical trade barriers. Economics is especially valuable in the initial stage of framing the effects at issue, in the intermediate stages of documenting empirical causation and in the final stage of litigation, which was to calculate and defend the amount of retaliation.     

Technology and farm performance: paths of productive efficiencies over time

The focus of this paper is the process of adjustment of farm performance to disequilibrium with new technology over time, which has been a subject of speculation till now. It shows that, left to learn from their own experience, farmers will be slow to realise the full technical potential of a new technology. Drawing on theories of intra‐firm diffusion, the hypotheses tested in this paper using data from India are: (1) initial overall farm performances are characterised by modest and widely varying technical and allocative efficiencies, and (2) over time, average efficiencies rise.     

The agricultural policy trilemma: On the wicked nature of agricultural policy making

Agricultural policy has been seen as exceptional, compartmentalized and complex. Consequently, policy making in agriculture has been portrayed as particularly difficult – sometimes as an example of a ‘wicked problem’. In this paper I argue that agricultural policy is more than ‘just’ a complex and wicked problem. It tends to be inbuilt contradictions in the form of trilemmas in agricultural policymaking, which imply that some combinations of core goals are impossible to reach. In this article I develop and illustrate the concept of an agricultural policy trilemma with Norway as a case – a plausibility probe. I argue that the concept of a trilemma may be a useful analytical tool in analysing policy and shifting policy priorities. I describe the development, and workings, of the trilemma from the 1970′s to the beginning of the corona crisis in 2020.     

On the Characterisation and Measurement of the Redistributive Effect of Agricultural Policy

The article proposes a coherent framework for the evaluation of the redistributive performance of agricultural policy. An illustrative study shows that the vertical stance of policy in Scotland was progressive in absolute terms, reflecting the chronic dependence of Scottish agriculture on policy transfers. Nevertheless, the overall redistributive effect of policy was to increase absolute inequality in farm incomes because of horizontal inequities in the incidence of transfers, though neither systematic discrimination between farm types nor systematic reranking was the main cause. The targeting of policy transfers could be improved by the use of indicator variables more strongly correlated with pre‐transfer incomes.     

Inducing the adoption of emerging technologies for sustainable intensification of food and renewable energy production: insights from applied economics*

Emerging advances in sustainable intensification technologies have the potential to transform land use and crop management approaches in ways that can increase resource productivity and reduce adverse environmental impacts of agricultural production. This paper describes emerging technologies that can sustainably intensify food and renewable energy production. We apply the findings from studies examining the adoption of technologies with similar stylized features to provide insights about the incentives and barriers for the adoption of these emerging technologies. We also present a landscape-based systems approach, based on welfare economics, to go beyond relying on a positive approach to explain observed adoption decisions to examining normative questions about the optimal mix, level, and location of adoption of these technologies to achieve desired societal outcomes. We conclude with a discussion of the insights from applied economics for the design of policy incentives to achieve these outcomes.