United States

Real GDP rose by 2.2% on an annualized basis in Q4 2014, as final sales advanced 2.4% while inventories imposed a 0.1 percentage point drag on growth. Consumer spending grew by 4.4% – the strongest since 2006 – contributing 3.0 percentage points to GDP growth. Business investment growth was revised slightly lower to a still solid 4.7% on downward revisions to equipment and intellectual property spending. Lastly, net foreign trade and government spending were drags on growth, subtracting 1.0 and 0.4 percentage points respectively. The economy grew by 2.4% in 2014 and we expect GDP growth will accelerate to 2.7% in 2015.…     

United States

Annualised real GDP growth came in at −0.2% in Q1. Final sales fell 0.6% and inventories added 0.5 percentage point (pp) to growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending rose 2.1% and contributed 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth. Business investment fell 2.0% on a massive 18% plunge in non‐residential structures, while net foreign trade and government spending exerted 1.9 and 0.1 pp drags on growth respectively. The soft Q1 has led us to revise down our 2015 GDP growth forecast from 2.7% in April to 2.3% now. We expect the US economy to grow by 2.8% in 2016.…     

United States

Real GDP grew by 1.4% on an annualised basis in Q4 2015, with final sales rising by 1.6% and inventories shaving 0.2ppt from growth. Consumer spending rose by 2.4%, while residential investment capped off a strong year with a 10.1% advance. The major drags on growth came from net trade and business investment. We have revised down our 2016 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% on expectations of a weaker Q1, while our view on 2017 remains at 2.4%. The picture is still one of solid domestic fundamentals being constrained by global headwinds.     

United States

Real GDP rose 3.9% in Q2 2015 as final sales rose 3.9% and the inventory contribution to growth was flat. Consumer spending grew 3.6% and contributed 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth. Business investment grew 4.1% on stronger structures and intellectual property spending. Residential investment meanwhile grew a fairly solid 9.4% in the quarter. Lastly, net foreign trade and government spending contributed 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points to growth respectively. The economy grew 2.4% in 2014 and we expect GDP growth will accelerate to 2.5% in 2015.     

United States

Real GDP grew at a robust 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 2018, following even stronger 4.2% annualized growth in Q2. A strong gain in consumer spending was partially offset by the weakest increase in business investment in nearly two years and a third straight quarterly decline in residential investment. In a reversal from Q2, net trade exerted a 2.0 ppt drag in Q3. Real GDP is now trending at a very solid 3.0% y/y – the fastest pace since early 2015.     

United States

Real GDP rose by 2.1% on an annualised basis in Q4 2016, with consumer spending up 3.5% and inventories contributing 1.0pp to growth. Despite solid “soft” data in Q1 2017, we see GDP growth slowing to less than 1.0% as back‐to‐back monthly declines in real consumer outlays constrain activity. Business investment and trade flows are firming only gradually, while rising inflation is taking a greater bite out of real income and spending.     

United States

GDP grew by an annualized 1.1% in Q1 2016 as final sales rose 1.3% and inventories shaved 0.2pp from growth. Consumer spending rose 1.5%, while residential investment surged 15.6%. Meanwhile, business investment contracted 4.5%, its worst performance since Q3 2009, and net trade added just 0.1pp to growth. We expect modest GDP expansion of 2% in 2016 and 2.3% in 2017, with domestic activity constrained by global headwinds.     

United States

Annualised real GDP growth was revised up from 2.4% to a final reading of 2.6% in Q4 2013. The growth mix was more positive than initially estimated with final sales posting a solid 2.7% advance and inventories neutral for growth. Consumer spending and business investment trends remain favourable, while the government spending drag was offset by a boost to growth from net trade…     

United States

Real GDP grew by 3.1% on annualised basis in Q2 2017, with final sales up 2.9% and inventories adding 0.1pp to growth. Consumer spending rebounded by 3.3%, after a soft Q1, supported by gains across all three major subcategories. Business investment rose by a robust 6.7%, spurred on by firm domestic activity and stronger global growth. Looking ahead, we forecast that GDP growth will average 2.2% in H2.     

United States

The US economy was slow out of the gates in 2018, recording GDP growth of only 2.0% on a quarter‐on‐quarter annualized basis in Q1. The softness was primarily driven by weaker consumer spending (up 1.0%), though business investment grew at its fastest pace since 2014, up 10.4%. This kept momentum quite solid, with real GDP up by 2.8% year‐on‐year in the first quarter.     

United States

Annualised real GDP growth was revised to a staggering 5% in Q3 2014, the strongest reading since 2003, as final sales advanced 5% while inventories were neutral for growth. Consumer spending growth was revised up from 2.2% to 3.2%, mostly on stronger services spending, while business investment grew by 8.9%. Net foreign trade was a significant positive factor driving GDP growth in Q3, contributing 0.8 ppt, while government spending was revised up modestly to 4.4%. We expect the economy to have grown by around 3% in Q4, resulting in GDP growth of 2.4% in 2014 overall, with a 3.3% expansion forecast for 2015…     

United States

Real GDP grew at a slower 2.2% annualized pace in Q4 2018, marking a substantial slowdown from 4.2% in Q2 and 3.4% in Q3. While consumer spending cooled to 2.5% growth, business investment picked up to 5.4% and residential investment remained depressed with a 3.5% contraction in Q4. Net trade exerted a 0.1 ppt drag on growth in Q4, offsetting the contribution from inventories.     

United States

Real GDP growth slowed to an annualised rate of 1.4% in Q1 2017 from 2.1% in Q4 2016. Growth in Q1 was constrained by weak consumer spending and inventories, while residential and business investment rose strongly. But, we believe this lull will be short‐lived and forecast a rebound in GDP growth to around 3.0% in Q2. The factors that constrained consumer spending, including higher inflation, unusually warm weather and slower tax refunds, were not repeated in Q2.     

Japan

The final Q2 GDP growth estimate was revised up slightly to 0.2% quarter‐on‐quarter. This was slightly higher than the initial estimate of zero but it still represents a slowdown from the 0.5% growth in Q1. Household spending held up better than projected. Private residential investment also surprised on the upside, surging 5% in the quarter, while public spending made another solid contribution to GDP growth. However, export volumes fell 1.5% on the quarter, with both goods and service exports falling.     

United States

Real GDP growth held broadly steady at 2.1% (annualised) in Q3, following the slowdown to 2.0% in Q2, but this masked diverging trends across subsectors. Consumer spending grew a still-strong 3.2%, while business investment contracted 2.3% — the first back-to-back fall in capital spending since 2016. Trade and inventories also dragged slightly on growth, while residential investment surprised somewhat on the upside with a 4.6% surge following six quarters of contraction.     

United States

The US economy suffered its worst quarter since the Great Recession in Q1 with real GDP falling 2.9% on an annualized basis. The main downward revision to activity came from lower consumer spending on services with the previously estimated advance of 4.3% being revised down to only a 1.5% gain. Newly available data from the Census Bureau's quarterly services survey indicated a much smaller contribution to growth for the sector from 1.9 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points. Housing and business investment fared poorly while net trade imposed a sharp drag on growth…     

Japan

Monthly data suggest that GDP growth remained solid in Q3. Industrial production increased 2.1% on the month in August, more than reversing the 0.8% decline in July. Goods export volumes also rose strongly, growing nearly 9% y/y in July‐August combined, while the latest Tankan survey showed a rise in capital spending intentions. And although the BoJ's real consumption activity index suggests that growth in household spending moderated in Q3, this followed a very robust outturn in the previous quarter.     

United States

Real GDP growth cooled to 2.0% (annualised) in Q2, following a deceptively strong 3.1% advance in Q1, but the softer headline print masked diverging trends across subsectors. The 4.7% consumer spending splurge was the largest in almost five years. Meanwhile, residential and business investment contracted – the latter for the first time since 2016. But trade and inventories also dragged on growth by 0.7ppt and 0.9ppt, respectively.     

United States

Real GDP growth was revised up yet again in the third quarter to 4.1% (up from 3.6%), but close to half of this was due to the largest inventory accumulation since 1998. Noteworthy was the upward revision to consumer spending from 1.4% to 2.0%, while business fixed investment growth was also revised up to 4.8%. Residential investment's contribution to growth was revised down a tick to 0.3ppt, but it remains very impressive for a sector that represents only 3% of the economy…     

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: Outlook darkens as coronavirus spreads

• ▀ What began as a supply shock in China has morphed into something much more serious. The effects of financial market weakness and the disruption to daily life around the world will trigger lower consumer spending and investment on top of the disruptions to the global supply chain. We now expect global GDP growth to slow to 2.0% this year from 2.6% in 2019, before picking up to 3.0% in 2021. But a global pandemic would lead to a far bigger slowdown this year.
• ▀ China seems to have made progress in containing the spread of the coronavirus, but the slow return to business as normal has prompted us to cut year-on-year GDP growth in Q1 from 3.8% to 2.3%, the weakest in decades. But we expect a healthy growth rebound in Q2 which will also provide Asian economies with a lift.
• ▀ It is isolation policies not infection rates that determine the economic impact. Outbreaks around the world are leading authorities to announce a growing list of measures to curb the virus spread. At a global level any Q2 rebound will thus be small at best. We expect investment in the advanced economies as a whole to contract on a year-on-year basis in Q2 for the first time since the global financial crisis, while annual household spending growth may slow to its lowest since the eurozone crisis.
• ▀ Our baseline assumes that the global economy will return to business as usual in Q3 and that some catch-up will result in robust H2 GDP growth. Combined with favourable base effects in early-2021, this is expected to result in world GDP growth averaging about 3% in 2021.
• ▀ Since January, we have cut our 2020 global GDP growth forecast by a hefty 0.5pp. But larger revisions may be required if the disruption triggered by shutdowns and other responses to coronavirus proves longer than we assume currently or if more draconian actions are needed in the event of a global pandemic. Our scenarios suggest that the latter could push the global economy into a deep recession.