Moving markets? Government bond investors and microeconomic policy changes

Do sovereign bond markets react systematically to microeconomic policy reforms? Some observers suggest that investors are very attentive to supply‐side policies such as those related to labor markets, corporate taxation, and product standards. They argue that, along with macroeconomic outcomes and broad financial market conditions, such reforms affect sovereign bond premiums, for developed as well as emerging economies. In contrast, we predict few systematic effects of supply‐side policy reforms on sovereign bond market outcomes. Our theory draws on a standard three‐equation model of the economy, widely accepted among economic and finance professionals. That model makes few clear predictions regarding the anticipated effects of microeconomic policy changes; as a result, we expect that such reforms will not generate systematic market reactions. Our analyses, based on daily data from 37 countries from 2004 to 2012, indeed reveal little evidence of a systematic bond market reaction to the 47 most significant reforms to corporate taxation and labor market regulation. These results call into question the notion that “bond market vigilantes” play a central role in compelling governments to enact specific microeconomic policy changes.     

Trends in household saving don't justify tax incentives to boost saving

Despite diverse trends in household saving in OECD countries, many governments are introducing tax incentives designed to boost saving by particular groups. Such schemes have been justified by many trends, including increasing income inequality, ageing populations, and greater cross-border competition. It is dangerous, however, to base policy on what is happening to aggregate household saving alone. First, personal saving should be viewed within a lifecycle context. Saving may look inadequate today, but households may already have made plans to redress this in future. Second, data on aggregate saving conceal significant differences between different household groups. Only disaggregation yields reliable inferences on which policy can be based. In particular, it is impossible to assess the consequences of demographic changes without analysis that distinguishes between different generations.
We reassess household saving by computing the evolution of lifetime profiles of consumption, income and saving of different cohorts over time, and then analyse the effect of demographic and other changes. We find little evidence for the assertion that tax incentives to promote national saving are needed now to stave off a future drought in household saving.     

Born like China,growing like China

This paper studies the effects of China's one‐child policy on saving and foreign reserve accumulation. Fertility control increases the saving rate both by altering saving decisions at the household level, and by altering the demographic composition of the population at the aggregate level. I show that demographically induced changes in saving explain the build‐up of a large foreign surplus in China. As in Song, Storesletten, and Zilibtti (2011), the model features contractual and financial market imperfections. Government‐owned firms are less productive but have full access to the credit market. Entrepreneurial firms are more productive but face credit constraints. As labour switches from less productive to more productive firms, demand for domestic bank borrowing decreases. As saving increases while demand for loans decreases, domestic savings are invested abroad, generating a foreign surplus. The model predicts that China's foreign reserve accumulation will soon begin to slow down in response to recent relaxation of the one‐child policy.     

中国能源利用效率、绩效及其障碍

中国政府将加快发展能源产业、坚持节约能源和保护环境作为一项基本国策。随着我国经济的不断发展,能源消费总量虽然在逐年增加,但能源利用效率却在不断提高。在中央政府政策的推动下,能源强度虽然呈下降趋势,但近年来下降的速度明显趋于平缓,低于改革开放初期。在分析总结我国能源利用效率变化的趋势和特点的基础上,通过对能源强度系数进行分解,发现能源强度变化的技术效应和结构效应都有减弱的趋势,尤其是结构效应。在此基础上从经济发展和社会因素两方面,进一步探讨了阻碍我国能源利用效率进一步提升的原因。     

改革开放三十年中国经济周期与宏观调控

改革开放以来,我国经历了数次经济周期和宏观经济政策调整,正确认识与把握中国经济周期的特点,对于改善宏观调控、促进国民经济稳定快速发展有着重要意义。文章首先考察了1978-2007年间中国历次经济周期的运行规律与波动特征,并结合中国实际情况,从所有制结构、社会总供求关系、经济结构、价格体制、调控手段和对外开放度等方面分析宏观调控对我国经济波动形成机制产生的影响;接着从国际经济周期的角度考察了中国、美国与世界经济周期的同步性特征,以及中国与世界其他15个不同市场类型的国家和地区之间经济周期存在的特征事实;最后给出了主要结论及政策建议。     

发达国家发展循环经济的政策及启示

本文揭示了循环经济的内涵和特征,通过对日本、德国等发达国家发展循环经济的政策体系和手段的总结,分析并指出了我国发展循环经济的不足之处。我国要发展循环经济,必须借鉴发达国家的成功经验,从法律体系、经济政策、价格机制等方面完善制度建设,这是我国成功实施循环经济的关键性条件。     

多维人口结构变动的交互经济影响——基于老龄化、城镇化和市民化视角的考察

人口年龄结构老龄化、 城乡结构城镇化与户籍结构市民化是中国人口结构变动的三大趋势特征, 并将对中国经济增长产生多重冲击与交互影响. 考察人口多个维度结构变动对经济的综合影响, 对更好地把握人口老龄化背景下的人口经济关系具有重要的理论及现实意义. 本文基于2001—2012年中国省级面板数据对这种交互影响进行了考察. 结果表明, 人口老龄化、城镇化和市民化趋势会对经济增长分别产生负面、 正向以及U型影响. 从交互影响看, 随着人口城镇化与市民化进程的推进, 将有效缓解人口老龄化对经济增长带来的负面影响, 而老龄化程度的加剧会弱化城镇化与市民化对经济增长的正向影响, 市民化则有助于改善城镇化对经济增长的正面影响. 这表明在人口老龄化过程中, 尽早以市民化助推城镇化是实现经济较快增长的有效途径.     

A THEORY OF THE CROSS‐SECTIONAL FERTILITY DIFFERENTIAL: JOB HETEROGENEITY APPROACH

This article presents a theory of the cross‐sectional fertility differential, which produces the negative wage–fertility relationship based on job heterogeneity. Although evidence suggests the importance of job heterogeneity in the labor market, it has largely been ignored in theories of fertility choice. I show that a theory incorporating job heterogeneity requires only standard conditions on preferences to generate the negative wage–fertility relationship, and the negative relationship derived from the model is robust to changes in economic environments (e.g., public policy and technology). Furthermore, the theory reconciles the negative cross‐sectional wage–fertility relationship with various time‐series variations in aggregate fertility.     

2011-2012年中国货币政策分析与展望

本文回顾了2011年中国货币政策操作的主要措施和金融运行情况,分析了2012年货币政策运行环境,提出了货币政策建议。本文认为,2011年,面对不断上升的通货膨胀压力,中国人民银行实行了稳健的货币政策,货币信贷条件向常态水平回归,有效遏制了物价过快上涨的势头。2012年,在经济增长下行压力和物价上涨压力并存的局面下,中国人民银行需要继续实施稳健的货币政策,进一步增强货币政策的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性,根据经济形势的变化,适时适度进行预调微调,保持货币信贷总量和社会融资规模的合理适度增长,更好地服务于实体经济发展。     

General Equilibrium Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Welfare of Households in South Asia

Impacts of fiscal and monetary policies are assessed in an open economy two sector multi‐household general equilibrium tax model with money for South Asia. Despite impressive growth rates there is evidence for alarming gaps in the distribution of income among households that require very careful design of economic policies. Generally the impacts of fiscal expansions are positive for all categories of households under the flexible price system but the gains are much higher for households in the upper income group than for those in the bottom. In theory the equilibrium relative prices guarantee the optimal allocation of resources in such economy. Simulation results show that demand, output and employment are sensitive to the preferences of consumers, confidence of producers and sector specific production technologies. Monetary policy is super‐neutral under flexible price regime but can complement fiscal policy well when aggregate prices are made sticky. Combination of monetary and fiscal policies in this manner can have extensive impacts in efficiency and redistribution. Higher taxes distort incentives to work and investment from richer households slowing down the economy. This reduces the welfare level of both rich and poor. Flexibility in prices enhances the market mechanism and makes the fiscal policy more effective and efficient.     

Intermediate Macroeconomics without the IS-LM Model

The IS-LM model is the primary model of economic fluctuations taught in intermediate-level undergraduate macroeconomics. Recent works by Taylor and Romer make a strong case for an alternative model, known as the aggregate demand-price adjustment (AD-PA) or the aggregate demand-inflation adjustment (AD-IA) model, as a better model of economic fluctuations. The author argues that the AD-PA model is superior to the IS-LM model for teaching about economic fluctuations in intermediate macroeconomics. He compares the perfomance of the two models in teaching about two important issues in current macroeconomics: the ineffectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating the 1990s Japanese economy and the rapid switch of the U.S. Federal Reserve from contractionary policy to expansionary policy in 2001.     

Economic Impact of Internet in China

This paper examines the current status of Internet development in China; analyzes its contributions to Chinese economy from the perspective of economic structural changes, IT industry development, E-commerce, productivity growth, foreign investment, and labor market, etc.; suggests its direction in terms of government policy orientations; and proposes strategies toward greater success of Internet in China. To promote economic growth, it is important for Chinese government to establish sturdy e-environments to enable its industries to compete in the global economy and to bring about a greater cohesion within its societies.     

20世纪90年代以来中国经济的动态效率

本文借助于西方宏观经济学中的索洛经济增长模型和拉姆齐 卡斯 库普曼斯模型 ,讨论了宏观经济中最优消费和储蓄的确定机制 ,并得出判断宏观经济运行动态效率的黄金定律以及修正黄金定律标准。同时 ,借助代际交叠模型从理论上探讨了自由竞争经济出现动态无效的可能性。在此基础上 ,我们利用黄金定律规则对中国实际经济运行的动态效率进行了考察 ,认为 2 0世纪 90年代初起中国经济运行处于一种动态无效状态 ,进而我们深入分析了造成中国经济出现动态无效的原因。根据中国经济处于动态无效的事实 ,并结合原因探索 ,我们最后提出了摆脱动态无效困境的若干政策建议。     

Welfare Implications of Non‐scale R&D‐based Growth Models

Non‐scale R&D‐based growth models imply that the decentral and the socially optimal long‐run growth rate coincide. Nonetheless, the distortions inherent in a market economy bias both the R&D investment share and the saving rate. As a result, the level of the balanced growth path may differ substantially between the two types of solution, implying a dramatic loss in welfare. The present paper explores the sources and magnitude of this gap. In addition, the consequences of public policies are examined, distinguishing between isolated policy measures from an overall policy programme.     

美国次贷金融危机对中国经济的影响

美国次贷危机以次级贷款危机为起点,迅速蔓延到美国的金融、股市、房地产市场乃至整个美国经济,并且随着全球经济链条进一步扩展到世界各地,进而演变成为全球性经济危机。基于美国处于世界经济的核心地位和中国经济、产业、金融、外汇的特殊性,中国政府必须进一步结合自身经济特点,采取积极、合理的政策应对美国次贷金融危机对中国经济带来的消极影响。     

Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade*

Though China's share of world trade exceeds that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available have two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Secondly, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally‐planned economy to a more market‐oriented one. We address these limitations with an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes China's decentralization period. We find that a 10 percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by nearly one percentage point. However, the estimated response of imports is negligible and lacks precision.     

预期、资产价格与总需求-一个简明的理论框架

本文在风险资产价格和总产出空间内,建立了无风险资产、风险资产、信贷和商品市场的联立均衡模型。与传统结构性宏观模型的主要区别是明确地将风险资产价格融入模型当中,强调了预期与风险资产价格变化对总需求的影响,对于现阶段的宏观经济问题提供了有针对性且易于掌握的分析工具。比较静态分析中讨论了人民币升值预期、风险偏好下降、货币政策变动、扩张性财政计划以及外部需求下降等几种外部冲击对风险资产价格和总需求的影响。     

Monetary Policy Announcements,Communication, and Stock Market Liquidity

Using the high‐quality intraday transaction data from 2001–2012, we investigate changes in stock market liquidity in response to the monetary policy announcements of the Bank of Korea (BOK). We find that liquidity impairment associated with informed trading occurs prior to the announcements but it disappears subsequent to the global financial crisis. In addition, liquidity impairment appears to become more severe with insufficient experts' predictability and accuracy rather than with policy rate change itself and unscheduled announcements. Finally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, changes in the Volatility Index (VIX), and trading by foreign investors play a limited role in explaining stock market liquidity changes. Overall, results indicate that central bank communication plays a significant role in reducing liquidity impairment by enhancing the predictability of policy actions, and therefore, mitigating information asymmetry.     

Social Security,Government Finance,and Savings*

This paper considers the impact of social security and the government financing mix on saving behaviour and aggregate economic activity. The theoretical argument for the neutrality of these actions is shown to have validity only if we consider the economy as behaving like a composite individual. Particular individuals do not face the same marginal rates of substitution and transformation as the hypothetical composite, due to corner solutions, illusions, and important distribution effects. Empirically, neutrality for the whole economy depends on the relative strengths of the offsetting forces faced by the individuals. Our findings with Australian data suggest that neither the level of aged pensions, nor the government financing mix, have substantial real effects on aggregate saving behaviour.     

内生货币供给体系下的财政收支分析

本介绍了一种基于内生货币供给的宏观经济理论及其模型要点，并在此理论基础上对市场经济中财政政策中的收支政策进行了分析，最后用我国1984－2001年财政政策和宏观经济运行的主要变量进行实证分析，相信会对财政收支的研究有一个新的认识。