日本资本项目开放与汇率政策研究

日本的资本项目开放从开始推动到最终实现,经历了30多年的时间。在资本项目开放的同时,日元汇 率也从360日元兑1美元大幅升值到2009年的平均93．62日元兑1美元。期间日本政府采取了宏观政策、资本管制、直接干预等多种手段,力求维护日元汇率稳定。有选择的渐进式开放是日本资本项目开放的主要经验,而成功的资本管制为有序开放提供了保障。日本在资本项目开放时,汇率政策与货币政策出现失误,是导致日本“失去的10年”的主要原因。中国未来的资本项目开放必须吸取日本的经验和教训。     

我国资本市场开放的渐进模式选择

资本市场的开放于我国而言是必要且迫切，但如何以稳妥的方式开放则是本文要研究的。文章先谈及我国所面临的资本市场开放要求，接着述及资本市场开放带来的风险，最后就我国资本市场开放的现实选择提出自己的看法。     

虚拟资本与中国资本市场的国际化

资本分为虚拟资本和实际资本，研究虚拟资本与探讨我国资本市场的国际化发展有着紧密的联系。中国资本市场有与国际市场接轨的紧迫任务。中国资本市场国际化发展的途径是扩大资本市场规模；创新金融工具与发展衍生产品；增强资本市场质量与效率，即增强透明度和流通性；完善资本市场监管体系和行业自律规则；开放和发展资本市场。     

我国资本市场国际化前瞻及监管路径选择

我国资本市场存在市场单一、外汇严格管制和法制不健全等诸多问题。资本市场国际化是我国资本市场走向成熟与发达的惟一路径。为此,我国必须建立一套具有吸引力的实体法规则和解决资本争端的程序机制;建立一个开放的、统一的和多层次的资本市场;改革外汇管理体制,允许人民币可自由兑换。     

资本账户开放度影响因素的实证分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章提出包括经济发展水平、国内金融市场深度、金融市场流动性和多样性、对外投资规模、宏观经济稳健性和外汇储备充足程度6个影响资本账户开放度的因素,通过多元线性回归,得到资本账户开放度的影响因素模型。在此基础上提出我国资本市场应该坚持有限和定向的开放。这是因为虽然我国宏观经济金融基本稳定,但利率尚未市场化且汇率政策弹性仍旧不足,所以资本账户还未到全面开放的时间,但是未来几年中国应该抓住上海自贸区带来的难得的机遇,在一定程度上加快资本账户开放的步伐,更快与发达国家接轨。资本账户有限开放是指放松金融服务业的市场准入门槛,以及对资本市场开放设投资方资格要求。定向开放是指我国根据人民币国际化的战略需要与未来战略伙伴国家签订由中国政府主导的双边投资协定,将中国金融市场准入的资格作为我国政府推进人民币国际化的策略工具。     

资本账户开放度影响因素的实证分析

文章提出包括经济发展水平、国内金融市场深度、金融市场流动性和多样性、对外投资规模、宏观经济稳健性和外汇储备充足程度6个影响资本账户开放度的因素,通过多元线性回归,得到资本账户开放度的影响因素模型。在此基础上提出我国资本市场应该坚持有限和定向的开放。这是因为虽然我国宏观经济金融基本稳定,但利率尚未市场化且汇率政策弹性仍旧不足,所以资本账户还未到全面开放的时间,但是未来几年中国应该抓住上海自贸区带来的难得的机遇,在一定程度上加快资本账户开放的步伐,更快与发达国家接轨。资本账户有限开放是指放松金融服务业的市场准入门槛,以及对资本市场开放设投资方资格要求。定向开放是指我国根据人民币国际化的战略需要与未来战略伙伴国家签订由中国政府主导的双边投资协定,将中国金融市场准入的资格作为我国政府推进人民币国际化的策略工具。     

稳妥地发展金融衍生产品市场

发展我国衍生产品市场，要采取严格监管严控风险前提下稳步发展的方针，坚持符合中国国情、符合客户避险需要，坚持立法与监管先行，“宁肯慢，务求好”。高度警惕国际投机资本对我国开放衍生产品市场的冲击和金融风险的发生。     

开放资本项目对我国金融经济的影响

随着我国金融全面对外开放时间的临近,开放经常项目后逐渐开放资本项目,放松对资本流动的过多管制,实现国内金融与国际金融在较高层次的融合与发展,是我国面临的一个现实问题和理论问题.特别是在资本项目管制有效性减弱的情况下,高昂的资本项目管制成本和不难看到的开放利益,最终会使我国在金融对外开放进程中作出开放资本项目的选择.但由于我国市场经济体制和市场金融体制还没有完全建立,加之整个国际金融体系的无序运行,我国资本项目的开放对我国经济金融的影响将是多层面的.     

我国开放资本项目的目的、可能出现的问题与策略

一、我国开放资本项目的目的 我国于1996年实现经常项目下的自由兑换后,资本项目的开放便一直成为国内外关注的焦点。我国开放资本项目似乎已是大势所趋。然而,我国在开放资本项目之前,必须明确开放资本项目的动机、目的,即为什么要开放资本项目。只有在弄清楚了这个问题之后,我们才能在资本项目开放的问题上采取正确的举措,以尽可能小的代价获得尽可能大的收益,否则就可能陷入盲动。     

人民币升值及预期对我国资产价格的影响研究——基于日元升值的比较分析

自汇率改革启动以来,资产价格波动剧烈。本文通过史料分析,总结概括出日元升值到日本资产价格泡沫形成及破灭的一个基本轮廓,指出过度宽松货币政策与日本国内经济增长乏力才是造成泡沫的根本原因。在与升值过程中日本与我国宏观经济形势、因应政策对比的基础上,指出我国与日本同期经济发展阶段不同,区域之间的巨大差距与偏低的城市化水平都为中国未来持续增长提供较强动力,加快社会体制改革和市场开放,引导过剩资本流向,即可避免出现巨大的资产价格泡沫。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

利用膜技术回收利用碱性废水研究进展

回顾了利用膜分离技术处理碱性废水的工艺与综合利用技术所取得的丰硕成果，总结了各种治理方法的特点、适用性及发展方向。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.     

Stature growth in industrializing Argentina: The Buenos Aires industrial belt 1916-1950

A sustained long-term increase in average stature accompanied the process of import-substituting industrialization in the main suburban area of Argentina, the Buenos Aires Conurbano. This gain in net nutrition was attained before the rise to power of a re-distributionist political party: the Peronists. The article also provides evidence of a decline in average heights during the period 1939-1945, which challenges us to revise the traditional wisdom about the impact of World War II and Peronist social policies and its implications for the nutrition and health of children. The new evidence on heights shows also persistent social and regional differences over time that had not been documented before.     

The Transfer of Property Rights from the Public to the Private Sector in Hong Kong: A Critical Assessment

Abstract

The privatization idea may have lost some of its luster in recent years, but it remains relevant in today's socio-economic environment and is pursued consistently in industrialized and industrializing countries alike. Hong Kong has followed the general pattern in a manner reflecting its particular circumstances and its institutional modus operandi. The underlying logic may not appear highly compelling, from a short-term perspective, yet there are sound grounds for approaching the task positively, if viewed from a multi-year standpoint. Rather surprisingly, for such a quintessentially capitalist society, Hong Kong has not confronted the privatization challenge astutely on the political front and has handled it somewhat mechanically in managerial terms. The benefits to the community may have thus been more modest than one could legitimately expect, given the historical backdrop.     

Measuring performance: Ranking state success over two decades in India

This paper proposes new composite measures of relative and dynamic state performance to improve governance and delivery of public programs in developing countries with a federal structure. We illustrate the use of the indices to rank the performance of 19 major Indian states on two large development programs launched by the Indian government over the last two decades using publicly available data. Although we find volatility in performance over time, there exists a positive correlation between measures of initial (administrative) state capacity, development and accountability with program outcomes. Our findings have important implications for both the design and implementation of large-scale public programs across developing countries.     

Thinking regionally: Aviation and development implications in the Karoo region,South Africa

This study focuses on regional economic development in South Africa, across provincial political jurisdictions. The article argues that remote hinterlands can be more usefully understood as forming an integrated whole, rather than functioning as the poor rural cousins of their provincial metropoles. This article considers three propositions: that key transport projects (such as airports) may unlock regional development; that this may stimulate regional spatial integration; and that this may spur the South African government to address its weak regional planning system. All three propositions are speculative, drawn from the international literature, but they contribute to an argument for greater spatial coherence in South African planning in rural regions. The argument is illustrated with reference to the Karoo region of South Africa, and the potential of a new airport to impact on regional economic dynamics. Furthermore, the article argues that such impacts will require new regional planning systems, which are currently absent from the South African political system.