Stability in the inefficient use of forecasting systems: A case study in a supply chain company

Computer-based demand forecasting systems have been widely adopted in supply chain companies, but little research has studied how these systems are actually used in the forecasting process. We report the findings of a case study of demand forecasting in a pharmaceutical company over a 15-year period. At the start of the study, managers believed that they were making extensive use of their forecasting system that was marketed based on the accuracy of its advanced statistical methods. Yet most forecasts were obtained using the system’s facility for judgmentally overriding the automatic statistical forecasts. Carrying out the judgmental interventions involved considerable management effort as part of a sales & operations planning (S&OP) process, yet these often only served to reduce forecast accuracy. This study uses observations of the forecasting process, interviews with participants and data on the accuracy of forecasts to investigate why the managers continued to use non-normative forecasting practices for many years despite the potential economic benefits that could be achieved through change. The reasons for the longevity of these practices are examined both from the perspective of the individual forecaster and the organization as a whole.     

A case study on the application of Fuzzy QFD in TRIZ for service quality improvement

The improvement of service quality so as to enhance customer satisfaction has been widely mentioned over the past few decades. However, a creative and systematic way of achieving higher customer satisfaction in terms of service quality is rarely discussed. Recently, TRIZ, a Russian acronym which means “Theory of Inventive Problem Solving,” has been proven to be a well-structured and innovative way to solve problems in both technical and non-technical areas. In this study, a systematic model based on the TRIZ methodology is proposed to generate creative solutions for service quality improvement. This is done by examining first the determinants of service quality based on a comprehensive qualitative study in the electronic commerce sector. Then the correlation between the imprecise requirements from customers and the determinants of service quality is analyzed with Fuzzy Quality Function Deployment (QFD) in order to identify the critical determinants relating to customer satisfaction. After which, the corresponding TRIZ engineering parameters can be effectively applied in the TRIZ contradiction matrix to identify the inventive principles. A case study is illustrated to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in an e-commerce company, and its results are presented to show the applicability of the TRIZ methodology in the e-service sector.     

The development and application of a process model for R&D project management in a high tech firm: A field study

In R&;D organizations of high tech firms, multiple R&;D projects are executed concurrently and timeliness of project completion - i.e., developing the right products at the right times - is a matter of serious concern. Given that the priority of R&;D projects and the interdependencies between the projects in a high tech firm change dynamically, high tech R&;D project management is a complex and challenging endeavor. To improve the understanding and management of high tech R&;D projects, this paper reports the findings of a field study where we, first, develop and empirically estimate a model that relates project priority over time with the generative mechanisms of market pull and technical challenge associated with R&;D projects. Next, we develop and demonstrate the application of a process model within which the time-varying project priority model is embedded. The process model makes it possible to allocate fixed resources among competing projects with time-varying interdependencies, thereby improving the timeliness of project completion. This research was conducted in collaboration with a major U.S. high tech firm. The corporate R&;D center of the firm served as the research setting for the field study. We present an application of the process model to delineate the evolution of the R&;D organization with the merger of its (technology driven) parent firm with another (market driven) high tech manufacturing firm. The application of the process model generates theoretical insights that are used to develop testable propositions. Implications of the study findings and directions for future research are discussed.