A RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION APPROACH TO EARNINGS FORECAST

The fundamental management problem of decision making in a climate where future values of important variables are unknown and can at best be estimated using traditional statistical techniques is addressed. The incorporation of forecast models into management decision‐support systems is critical for the overall success of organizational accounting information systems, where managers require confidence in the information that they use. The neural network paradigm has been described as a promising nonparametric approach, negating the required, and sometimes restrictive, statistical assumptions. The application of the neural network paradigm to the area of earnings forecasting is presented. A radial basis function (RBF) approach is developed and tested empirically using data from the Hong Kong Hang Seng 100 Index and macroeconomic data, mimicking an actual business valuation/forecast exercise. Results show that the RBF approach is superior to regression and financial analysts in earnings forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Goals,Rules and Methods to Support Reasoning in Business Process Reengineering

One step towards a more systematic approach to the design of business processes is to develop models that provide appropriate representations of the knowledge that is needed for understanding and for reasoning about business processes. We present a modelling framework which uses goals, rules and methods to support the systematic analysis and design of business processes. The frame-work consists of two main components—a Strategic Dependency model that describes a process organization in terms of intentional dependencies among actors, and a Strategic Rationale model that supports reasoning during process redesign. Formal representation of these models allows computer-based tools to be developed as extensions to, and eventually integrated with, other tools for supporting information systems development.     

Information system integration,enabling control and performance

The literature has demonstrated the complex relationship between information system integration approaches, such as Enterprise Resource Planning systems, and management control. In this paper, we begin our analysis by focussing on just one aspect of information system integration, namely in terms of data architecture, commonly referred to as the single database concept. We argue that whilst this particular aspect of integration should be related to perceived system success, the variety of ways in which information might be drawn on in practice means it provides no strong basis for predicting a link to business unit performance. Instead, building on Adler and Borys [Adler, P., & Borys, B. (1996). Two types of bureaucracy: Enabling and coercive. Administrative Science Quarterly, 41(1), 61–90] we argue that the level of information system integration fosters the four design characteristics that make up an enabling approach to management control. Each of these in turn is related to both perceived system success and business unit performance. We present PLS analysis of survey data collected from 169 managers that broadly supports these expectations.     

Market efficiency, the Mexican peso crisis, and the US bank stock returns: An application of the event parameter method

This paper examines the impact of the 1994 Mexican peso crisis on US bank returns using an event parameter approach. The event parameter approach explicitly predicts the stochastic return generating process on the occurrence or nonoccurrence of specific events. The event parameter method assumes that only the intercept term may vary between the estimation and analysis periods. Specifically, this study will examine two pairs of hypotheses, new information vs. information leakage and rational pricing vs. investor contagion, in the context of the 1994 Mexican peso and banking crisis. The empirical results support the new information hypothesis, which states that US stock prices reacted quickly to events related to the Mexican peso crisis. This research has also found evidence for bank contagion, although these did not spill over to other banks. The US government and international agencies acted promptly to contain the effect of the Mexican peso and banking crisis spreading to the US and to other Latin American countries.     

Models, knowledge creation and their limits

Instead of modelling socio-economic situations as mechanical systems with fixed, predictable behaviour, we now see that socio-economic systems are really complex systems, in which various possible structural changes can occur giving rise to a range of different possible futures. This necessary future uncertainty automatically imposes an uncertainty on the precise pay-off that any particular action or decision that an agent may take. Because of this, the decisions that agents will make are also uncertain and this poses limits to our ability to model socio-economic systems and therefore to the knowledge that we can have at any time about the future. Because of this constant knowledge decay, what matters in real world situations of markets and business is the generation of new, current knowledge. Contrary to traditional science in which the natural laws are independent of who knows them, in social and economic systems, knowledge of system behaviour decays over time, and is in any case used up when it triggers new behaviour in the system. Several examples of evolutionary market systems are presented which demonstrate how knowledge is constantly created and destroyed, and the problem of change, innovation and design are shown to be part of a ‘boundedly rational’ view in which imperfect search gives rise to ‘good enough’ behaviour. All of this is a radical departure from the traditional approach that falsely believe in the optimisation of designs, behaviours and profits. Complexity tells us that we must accept risk and uncertainty and work loosely, keeping our options open as much as possible.     

Putting the enterprise into the enterprise system

Enterprise systems present a new model of corporate computing. They allow companies to replace their existing information systems, which are often incompatible with one another, with a single, integrated system. By streamlining data flows throughout an organization, these commercial software packages, offered by vendors like SAP, promise dramatic gains in a company's efficiency and bottom line. It's no wonder that businesses are rushing to jump on the ES bandwagon. But while these systems offer tremendous rewards, the risks they carry are equally great. Not only are the systems expensive and difficult to implement, they can also tie the hands of managers. Unlike computer systems of the past, which were typically developed in-house with a company's specific requirements in mind, enterprise systems are off-the-shelf solutions. They impose their own logic on a company's strategy, culture, and organization, often forcing companies to change the way they do business. Managers would do well to heed the horror stories of failed implementations. FoxMeyer Drug, for example, claims that its system helped drive it into bankruptcy. Drawing on examples of both successful and unsuccessful ES projects, the author discusses the pros and cons of implementing an enterprise system, showing how a system can produce unintended and highly disruptive consequences. Because of an ES's profound business implications, he cautions against shifting responsibility for its adoption to technologists. Only a general manager will be able to mediate between the imperatives of the system and the imperatives of the business.     

Revisiting fit between AIS design and performance with the analyzer strategic-type

In considering the Miles and Snow analyzer strategic-type, this paper re-examines the relationship between strategic choice, accounting information systems design (AIS), and business-unit performance. This paper also examines the construct validity of the variables considered in the study. In response to previous studies that called for triangulation of variables with other sources, the validity of the results have been improved by using a multi-method, multiple-respondent approach for business strategy classification and business-unit performance assessment. Results of a research survey and secondary data analysis of 88 Canadian business units suggest that for prospector strategic-types, and to a lesser extent for defender strategic-types, broad-scope AIS is associated with higher performance. Managers of prospector and defender units need external, non-financial, and future-oriented information for decision-making, which represents an evolution in defenders' information needs. Results also support the assumption that information needs of analyzer strategic-type units differ from those of defender units.     

交易处理模式在会计软件设计中的应用

本文详细讨论了在客户／服务器体系结构下应用交易处理思想设计银行会计软件的若干问题。提出了在异种操作系统、数据库系统运行环境下的解决方案。     

Business process semi-automation based on business model management

It is important to respond to customers' requirements more rapidly than ever before due to the recent trend in e-business and its technologies. In order to achieve an agile response, we have to manage business models, to reflect the changes in the models and to develop or modify IT systems for further chances. This paper proposes a management framework of layered enterprise models. The proposed framework consists of a business model repository and a software repository, and defines three different grain sizes of modeling layers, namely business modeling, business process modeling and business application modeling, in order to support business modeling and application development. This framework helps us to develop business application in incremental deployment of analysis, design, and implementation to execute business processes. We have implemented a prototype environment using Java. Each repository's contents are described using XML so that the repositories are interoperable. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新农村建设的财政金融支持政策研究

新农村建设的各项任务无不与财政金融支持关系紧密,需要大量的资金支持.目前,农村的财政金融支持政策存在着财政拨款投入总量不足、政策性银行业务范围太窄、商业性银行撤离农村、农村资金严重流出等问题,由于新农村建设具有公共产品的属性,应该建立政府主导的、多元化的农村财政金融支持体系以适应新农村的建设.     

Recognizing and Revising Unconvincing Explanations

Expert system explanations sometimes fail to satisfy their users. The standard assumption is that these failures arise because the user did not completely understand the system's explanation. However, users may also be left unsatisfied because they are unconvinced by the explanation provided. Advice-giving systems should therefore eventually be extended to recognize when and why an explanation has failed to convince the user and to elaborate or revise explanations to make them more convincing. This paper provides an initial model of this process for systems that give advice about choosing between multiple alternatives for accomplishing a particular task. In particular, we discuss the model underlying a prototype system to advise novice computer users about how best to accomplish tasks on the UNIX operating system.     

BUILDING AND EVOLVING DATA WAREHOUSING AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE ARTEFACTS: THE CASE OF SYSCO

This paper investigates use of data warehouse and business intelligence capabilities to integrate with customers in the supply chain and improve insights into customer sales. By making internal data warehouse sales information available to customers, additional value to those customers is created, eliminating asymmetries of information in the supply chain. In addition, the evolution of data warehousing into business intelligence is investigated, expanding sales information to include marketing associate performance analysis generated for internal use. Further, a methodology that was used for building a business intelligence system is also examined. Finally, what appears to be a business‐intelligence‐driven focus on enterprise resource planning systems is analyzed. These issues are illustrated using real‐world data warehousing and business intelligence artefacts developed at SYSCO. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enablers of top management team support for integrated management control systems innovations

Top management team (TMT) support has been identified as one of the most important critical factors to the success of management control systems (MCS) innovations. However, prior studies have taken TMT support for MCS innovations as a given rather than considering the factors that determine whether that support will actually exist and the extent thereof. Prior studies also follow a monolithic approach and treat TMT support for MCS innovations as a black box rather than a combination of processes and stages that develop sequentially over time. We conceptualise TMT support for MCS innovations as consisting of two stages (TMT belief and participation in MCS innovations). We draw on Upper Echelon and knowledge creation theories to motivate and test four enablers of TMT support for an integrated MCS innovation. We theorize the four enablers as TMT's strategic IT knowledge, TMT knowledge creation processes, CIO's strategic business and IT knowledge, and the interaction between TMT and the CIO. We test the research model using survey data that was collected from 347 Australian organisations. The results from the data analyses confirm the hypothesised relationships, supporting the theorized synergies among the four antecedents to TMT support. There are several implications for theory and practice that should be considered in future studies examining the role of TMT in supporting new MCS innovations.     

Reimagining design science and behavioral science AIS research through a business activity lens

In this paper, we present a novel approach for reimagining the scope and impact of design science and behavioral science accounting information systems (AIS) research. We do so by first explicitly considering the broad impact of accounting on business functions. The proliferation of information technology throughout the organization coupled with the blurring of the lines between “accounting” and “business” activities has spawned a world where (technology-enabled) accounting has truly become the language of (technology-driven) business. Leveraging the International Standards Organization model of the phases of business activity, we highlight how utilization of information systems artifacts in each business activity phase yields a broad array of AIS research questions. Second, we encourage design science and behavioral science AIS research to work synergistically, such that the outputs of each paradigm inform the research conducted in the other paradigm. We suggest that a more purposeful integration of design science and behavioral science AIS research over time can improve the rigor and relevance of AIS research to advance knowledge in the field, amplify the impact of AIS research for our colleagues in both accounting and information systems, and improve the practical applicability of the research findings.     

Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option

This paper develops an approach for valuing flexible production systems using contingent claims pricing. Demand curves for our model's underlying assets (output products) may be downward sloping, in contrast with the standard option pricing assumption. Also, our marginal production(exercise) costs may be increasing. In addition, we allow for multiple products and a production capacity constraint. These elements of the model result in complex exercise decisions for the contingent claims which comprise the production system's value. We illustrate our approach by valuing a flexible system that produces two products which have profit margin functions with stochastic parameters.     

EVA® FOR BANKS: VALUE CREATION, RISK MANAGEMENT, AND PROFITABILITY MEASUREMENT

This article presents a complete ranking of America's 100 largest bank holding companies according to their shareholder value added. This research, the first of its kind for the banking industry, defines an EVA measurement for banks and presents evidence of EVA's stronger correlation with bank market values than traditional accounting measures like ROA and ROE. Besides developing EVA and MVA as analytical tools for viewing the economic performance of the organization from a shareholder perspective, the authors also present a framework for calculating EVA at all levels of the organization, including lines of business, functional departments, products, customer segments, and customer relationships. The implementation of an EVA profitability measurement system at the business unit (or lower) level requires methods for three critical tasks: (1) transfer pricing of funds; (2) allocation of indirect expenses; and (3) allocation of economic capital. Although solutions to the first two are fairly straightforward, the allocation of capital to business units is a major challenge for banks today. In contrast to the complex, “bottom-up” approach used by a number of large banks in implementing their RAROC systems, the authors propose a greatly simplified, “top-down” approach that requires calculation of only the volatility of a business's operating profit (or NOPAT). The advantage of using NOPAT volatility is that it allows EVA analysis at any level of the organization in a way that captures the volatility effects from all sources of risk (credit, interest rates, liquidity, or operations). While such a top-down approach is clearly not meant to take the place of a comprehensive, bottom-up RAROC analysis, it is intended to provide a complement–a high-level “check” on the detailed, bottom-up risk management procedures and controls now in place at most banks. Moreover, for those banks that have developed extensive funds transfer pricing, cost allocation, and RAROCstyle capital allocation systems, the EVA financial management system can either be integrated with those systems or serve as an independent economic assessment of the bank's business risks and returns.     

以客户为中心构筑电子银行的经营管理体系

传统的精细分工和管理模式使得商业银行业务流程和监控过程复杂化,导致管理效率低下,无法适应电子银行业务发展的要求,甚至成为制约业务发展的重要因素.建立以客户为中心的经营管理体系,将使电子银行摆脱内部低效的障碍,确立电子银行的市场竞争优势,提高客户忠诚度,实现收益最大化的目标.本文从创新内部管理体系、完善电子银行信息系统、开展电子银行客户关系管理、建立以客户为中心的产品体系、完善售后服务以及电子银行客户经理队伍建设等多个方面,提出了在现有经营管理总体框架内,建立以客户为中心的电子银行经营管理体系的初步构想.