Impact of trade cost on China-EU agri-food trade

In this research, we investigate trade costs in relation to China-EU trade in agri-food products during 2001–2015. Major components of trade cost include transportation costs, border-related policy barriers such as tariffs, and local distribution costs. Our results indicate that trade costs between China and EU involving agri-food products, although falling, remain abnormally high. Consequently, we find that trade cost reductions contribute to over half of the overall China-EU trade growth. Our decomposition technique demonstrates that economic growth and trade cost reductions are the key drivers of China-EU trade expansion. Implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would reduce high trade costs to increase EU-China bilateral agricultural trade significantly. This is not fully captured in the gravity models where a static distance is usually used as a proxy to trade cost. The BRI will not reduce the distance, but it will cut transportation and other components of trade cost for China-EU trade.     

中日韩文化创意产品贸易竞争关系的实证分析

中日韩三国在内部市场和国际市场上的创意产品贸易竞争性较强,这对于扩大中国创意产品出口有借鉴意义。     

创意产品贸易决定因素及对双边总贸易的影响

近年来,创意产品贸易取得了史无前例的发展,成为全球贸易的新增长点。本文以标准的垄断竞争模型为基础,构建了分析创意产品贸易决定因素及其对双边总贸易影响的计量方程,并采用PPML估计法进行实证分析。结果表明,创意产品贸易具有偏好"传染性",进而对后期创意产品贸易具有促进作用;而创意产品贸易发展对双边总贸易发展也具有明显的带动作用。据此本文认为,在后危机时代短期内外需持续低迷的情况下,大力发展中国创意产品出口贸易并提升其国际竞争力,不失为稳外需、保出口增长的有效措施之一。     

Can the Japanese agri-food producers survive under freer trade? A general equilibrium analysis with farm heterogeneity and product differentiation

The roles of firm heterogeneity and product differentiation in the manufacturing industries have attracted research attention on the “new new trade theory.” The agricultural sectors also produce new goods using product differentiation through breeding, branding, and other activities. In reaction to globalization, the Japanese Government has sought to revitalize its agri-food sectors by promoting exports of differentiated products. This computable general equilibrium study examines the relevance of this policy, focusing on five agri-food sectors other than grains. We simulate Japan’s three trade deals and a policy intervention that cuts fixed export costs to promote exports. We show that only a few agri-food sectors can increase exports and maintain domestic output under freer trade, and that export promotion would markedly increase entrants into export markets and increase exports of the vegetables and fruit, and processed food product sectors. In these trade deals, tariff and nontariff barriers have different impacts on trade, output, and farm/firm entry.     

贸易条件变动、技术进步与产业结构效益——基于跨国面板数据的分析

本文基于技术视角,将贸易产品从不同技术层级分为5类,并采取工业技术进步率和高技术工业产品出口竞争力衡量工业产业结构效益。同时,利用15个国家1987-2008年的相关数据,实证检验了不同技术层级产品贸易条件变动对工业产业结构效益的影响。结果表明:初级产品贸易条件改善对工业产业结构效益具有负效应;而资源性产品和高技术产品贸易条件改善对工业产业结构效益具有正效应;低技术产品贸易条件改善提高了工业技术进步率却削弱高技术工业产品出口竞争力;中等技术产品贸易条件改善对发展中国家及新型工业化国家工业产业结构效益具有正效应,但削弱了发达国家高技术工业产品的出口竞争力。     

Changes in Chinese Competitiveness in Major Food Products: Implications for WTO Membership

Chinese entry to the WTO in December 2001 marks a new phase in agricultural trade, both nationally and globally. After a context review of Chinese agriculture and WTO-related policy issues, this paper first uses a Balassa index approach to examine China's relative competitiveness in some major food products over the period since 1985, followed by an analysis of price-cost ratios and production cost structures for these products. It is found that China has revealed comparative advantages in meat products but disadvantages in cereals. With limited land resources, its production and trade competitiveness has declined despite rapid substitution of capital for labour, due to a marked rise in relative labour price in agriculture. In the long run, it is expected that WTO membership will boost Chinese agricultural trade, but its impact on competitiveness will probably depend more on production costs, and will differ between crops and animal products.     

全球智能制造产品贸易的新格局及中国应对策略研究

为系统分析当前全球智能制造产品贸易发展格局,塑造我国智能制造产品对外贸易的竞争优势,文章基于2010-2019年80个智能制造产品主要贸易国的多边贸易数据,借助社会网络分析法对现阶段智能制造产品世界贸易发展态势及中国的贸易地位进行研究。实证结果表明,当前我国智能制造产品与世界其它国家之间的网络密度和互惠性较强,在全球智能制造产品贸易社会网络中的中心性程度较高,且聚集系数的结果近年来呈现出上升趋势。当前全球智能制造产品贸易存在明显的"去中心化"发展趋向,我国逐渐成为智能制造产品贸易体系中的重要一极。并基于实证分析结果,提出旨在增强我国智能制造产品贸易竞争力与话语权的实践策略。     

入世以来我国主要农产品国际竞争力的实证分析

文章在分析我国农产品贸易的现状和贸易结构的基础上,运用市场占有率、可比净出口指数和显示性比较优势指数三项指标,对蔬菜、水果、谷物、肉类四类主要农产品入世以来的贸易数据进行分析,具体研究其竞争力情况,并针对这一竞争力现状提出提高我国农产品国际竞争力的建议。     

四川省农产品出口竞争力的实证分析

农产品作为四川省的传统支柱产业和优势产业,具有比较优势。但随着贸易保护大行其道,四川省的农产品出口受到很大冲击,竞争力明显下降,出口受到影响。本文通过分析竞争力指数N TB和优势变差G的变化情况,来对农产品出口竞争力进行实证分析。     

中国番茄出口贸易竞争力及国际比较

随着中国番茄出口贸易能力不断增强,中国已成为世界番茄贸易大国,其贸易地位不容忽视。通过对中国番茄出口国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力指数及显示性比较优势指数与主要竞争对手比较,发现中国番茄在产品出口竞争力上存在较大差异,其中番茄酱的出口贸易竞争力表现出较高水平,而其他番茄产品的竞争力有待提高。     

中国对中亚五国农产品出口贸易发展水平研究——基于“一带一路”倡议及灰色关联度分析

本文基于出口贸易规模、出口贸易结构、出口贸易竞争力三方面的描述统计,采用灰色关联度分析方法评价中国对中亚五国农产品出口贸易发展水平。研究发现:中国对中亚五国农产品出口贸易规模呈扩大趋势,出口贸易结构不断优化,贸易潜力巨大,出口贸易竞争力在哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦三国具有比较优势,在塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦两国不具有比较优势;出口贸易发展水平较高,不同时段和时点变化特征明显。因此,中国与中亚五国应积极开展农业经贸合作,优化农业结构和贸易结构,统筹利用国际国内两个市场,不断提高农产品贸易发展水平。     

中国纸产品生产与出口贸易分析

造纸工业在中国国民经济中发挥着极其重要的作用。采用描述性统计方法分析中国纸产品的生产与贸易状况,并与世界造纸发达国家进行比较。研究表明：中国纸产品生产量大,但是贸易量相对较小,与世界造纸相关相比,纸产品国际竞争力较弱。     

广东省各地区外贸出口竞争力比较研究

广东各地区外贸出口竞争力的比较分析,不仅有利于把握广东省的对外贸易现状,而且对正确地提升整个广东的外贸竞争力具有十分重要的指导意义。本文运用因子分析法整理外贸出口竞争力评价指标并构建综合指标F,由此得出广东省21个地级市的外贸出口竞争力情况排名,进而提出平衡和提升各地区外贸出口竞争力的政策建议。     

多视角看中日农产品贸易互补性

中日农产品贸易问题日益成为中日两国经贸关系研究的热点。文章从比较优势指数、贸易互补指数及贸易强度指数三个不同视角进行分析发现,中日农产品贸易互补性较强并呈上升趋势,其中竞争力提升效应使中国对日本农产品出口的扩大贡献最大。鉴于上述分析,中日两国应发挥各自的比较优势,充分利用好“两个市场,两种资源”,加强农业领域的交流与合作,推动中日两国农产品贸易合作继续走向双赢。     

浙江省农产品国际竞争力的实证分析

本文分析了浙江省农产品贸易的发展现状和特点,并运用国际市场占有率(MS)、贸易竞争力指数(TC)、显性比较优势指数(RCA)对浙江省农产品国际竞争力进行实证测度,分析了浙江省现阶段农产品国际竞争力现状和变化趋势,表明浙江省农产品参与国际贸易的力度不够,发展潜力巨大,并就此提出了提升浙江省农产品国际竞争力的对策建议。     

Evolutionary Characteristics of China＇s Intermediate Manufactures

China's economic development is characterized by progressive integration with international production chains as an assembly producer. Japan and South Korea are the major partners providing intermediate products to China. The present paper analyzes the Chinese intermediate sector's present condition and evolutionary characteristics revealed in bilateral trade with Japan and South Korea. The analysis uses the framework of new trade theory represented by “intra‐industry trade”. Trade statistics from 1997 to 2004 are analyzed using the database published by the OECD. Results show that China's inter‐industrial evolution is characterized by its expanding positioning in the manner of the flying geese development paradigm of Asian countries. Furthermore, intra‐industrial evolution is characterized by a concentration on price competitiveness. The framework and results of the industrial analysis presented in this paper assist in the understanding of China's manufacturing evolution and of the policy‐making decisions taken in the process.     

Evaluation of the competitiveness of Russian products in world,CIS, EAEC,and non-CIS markets

Based on statistical indicators of external trade, the condition and dynamics of competitiveness of Russia on CIS markets, including EAEC, non-CIS countries, and the world as a whole, are analyzed in the article. An analysis was conducted for products of the mechanical engineering, chemical, fuel, timber, wood-working, pulp-and-paper, light, and food industries.     

工资变动对我国服务贸易与货物贸易竞争力的影响

近年来,我国物价上涨十分明显,要求增加工资的呼声不断高涨,但有人担心涨工资可能会导致我国外贸国际竞争力下降,进而会影响经济增长。在此背景下,本文实证分析工资变动对我国服务贸易、一般贸易与加工贸易竞争力的影响,以期为政府部门决策提供参考。本文的研究结论是:从长期看,工资增长有利于提升我国外贸竞争力。从短期情况看出,一方面,工资增长对我国服务贸易与一般贸易竞争力产生一定的冲击,但不久,这种冲击会转变为正面影响;另一方面,工资增长对我国加工贸易有正面影响,但其正面影响会逐渐减小,并转化为微弱的负面影响。     

中国乳制品国际竞争力研究

通过对乳品行业贸易专业化指数、显示比较优势指数和国际市场占有率指数的分析发现我国乳制品的国际竞争力低,与发达国家存在较大差距。提升乳制品国际竞争力迫在眉睫。     

中国及上海服务贸易国际竞争力研究

本文总结了中国及上海服务贸易的发展现状,通过对国际市场占有率、服务贸易竞争优势指数、显示比较优势指数、显示性竞争优势指数等指标的测算,探讨了中国及上海服务贸易的国际竞争力。另外,本文对上海服务贸易的影响因素进行了实证分析,探讨了当前服务贸易国际竞争力低下的原因,并在此基础上提出若干对策建议。