Loss aversion in aggregate macroeconomic time series

Prospect theory has been the focus of increasing attention in many fields of economics. However, it has scarcely been addressed in macroeconomic growth models—neither on theoretical nor on empirical grounds. In this paper we use prospect theory in a stochastic optimal growth model. Thereafter, the focus lies on linking the Euler equation obtained from a prospect theory growth model of this kind to real macroeconomic data. We will use generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to test the implications of such a non-linear prospect utility Euler equation. Our results indicate that loss aversion can be traced in aggregate macroeconomic time series.     

Currency returns and downside risk: Debt,volatility, and the gap from benchmark values

The paper considers competing portfolio-balance specifications of currency returns, including one based on expected utility theory and another on prospect theory. The prospect theory specification relates downside risk to the gap between the exchange rate and its benchmark value. The empirical analysis uses survey data on exchange rate expectations to test directly the models’ predictions concerning ex ante excess returns. It also relies on the cointegrated VAR framework, which is well suited for testing competing models and dealing with unit roots. Like earlier studies, we find little support for the expected utility theory model in three major currency markets. By contrast, the prospect theory model’s predictions are largely borne out in the data, including those about sign reversals. We find the strongest support for a hybrid model that incorporates the risk factors of both models.     

Prospect theory in the wild: how good is the nonexperimental evidence for prospect theory?

ABSTRACT

Prospect theory is widely thought to be one of the best-confirmed accounts of human decision-making under risk. There are numerous claims in the literature that various kinds of nonexperimental, observational evidence provide strong support for prospect theory. We investigate the veracity of these claims using a set of philosophy of science morals and a careful delineation of models of choice under risk, focussing on the extant versions of prospect theory and their various components. We challenge the claim that prospect theory is well supported because it explains the equity premium puzzle. In addition, we analyse a major international survey thought to support prospect theory and argue that the support is questionable, both for statistical reasons and because the evidence itself is mixed. Our analyses highlight some important ideas in the philosophy of science and caution against strong claims about support for prospect theory that rely on nonexperimental, observational evidence.     

Loss aversion and the term structure of interest rates

This article studies how the loss averse behaviour affects the term structure of real interest rates. Since the pro-cyclical conditional expected marginal rate of substitution, implied from the US consumption data, is consistent with the proposition of loss aversion, we incorporate the loss averse behaviour of prospect theory into the consumption-based asset pricing model. Motivated by the similarity between habit formation and the prospect theory utility, habit formation is exploited to determine endogenously the reference point of this behavioural finance utility. The highly curved characteristic of the term structure of real interest rates can thus be captured by the additional consideration of loss aversion. This model also fits the downward sloping volatility of the real yield curve in the data of US Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS). Moreover, depending on the effective risk attitude of the representative agent with the loss averse behaviour of prospect theory, our model is capable of generating a normal or an inverted yield curve.     

我国证券投资基金处置效应检验

本文首先介绍了前景理论,将研究期间分为业绩上涨和业绩下降两个阶段,对基金份额赎回的外部效应进行了推导,并将前景理论与外部效应结合分析了基金赎回的处置效应。提出3条假设,利用2007—2009年季度数据,建立基金赎回率与收益率、基金分红等因素之间的面板数据模型,对基金赎回的处置效应进行了实证检验。研究发现:无论是在基金业绩上涨时期还是下降阶段,基金的收益率与基金的赎回率呈显著负相关,特别是在基金业绩下降阶段,投资者选择了赎回基金份额,并没有体现出处置效应。最后,从稳定基金规模的角度出发,本文认为牛市中的净申购与熊市中的净赎回均不利于基金份额的稳定,会给基金的运作带来困难。     

利益相关者满足与企业财务绩效的相关性研究——基于我国家电上市公司面板数据的实证研究

本文分析了影响利益相关者对企业进行专用性投入进而影响企业财务绩效的因素,指出企业对利益相关者的合理满足是实现企业财务绩效最优化的关键所在;选取代表各利益相关者满足程度和企业财务绩效的指标,采用面板数据模型对我国家电上市公司数据进行实证分析。结果表明:利益相关者满足与企业财务绩效之间存在着显著的相关性。     

How Politicians Make Decisions: A Political Choice Experiment

The present paper reports on a political choice experiment with elected real-world politicians. A questionnaire on political and public issues is used to examine whether prospect theory predicts the responses of experts from the field better than rational choice theory. The results indicate that framing effects do not disappear with expertise.      

行为委托-代理激励新模型及分析框架

标准委托-代理激励模型及分析框架沿袭新古典经济学中关于理性经济人、偏好不变、预期效用等基本假定,存在一些无法解释的现象和悖论。本文从行为经济学对主流经济学的新古典经济学基本假设的挑战出发,对标准委托-代理激励模型及分析框架中代理人完全理性和风险规避等基本假设所带来的缺陷进行了系统分析,探究了如何利用期望理论的价值函数替代期望效用函数、有限理性替代完全理性来构建新的委托一代理激励模型及分析框架。新模型和框架考虑了代理人的心理特征和非理性行为,将增强激励模型及分析框架对现实制度的解释力和适用性。     

Moral Hazard,Income Taxation and Prospect Theory*

The standard theory of optimal income taxation under uncertainty has been developed under the assumption that individuals maximise expected utility. However, prospect theory has now been established as an alternative model of individual behaviour, with empirical support. This paper explores the theory of optimal income taxation under uncertainty when individuals behave according to the tenets of prospect theory. It is seen that many of the standard results are modified in interesting ways. The first‐order approach for solving the optimisation problem is not valid over the domain of losses, and the marginal tax schedule offers full insurance around the reference consumption level. The implications of non‐welfarist objectives under income uncertainty are also examined.     

Asymmetric search and prospect theory: choice experiment on consumer willingness to search in the gasoline retail market

We use an internet survey conducted among a representative random sample of drivers in the State of Ohio consisting of a choice experiment designed to examine the mechanism driving asymmetric search. The internet survey affords us the opportunity to overcome endogeneity difficulties by imposing exogenous price changes on gasoline consumers to examine the decision-making process behind intended search decisions. We randomly assigned participants to one of five price treatments (either 2.5 or 5% above or below their reported expected price, or no change). We provide a simple empirical model to derive testable implications under prospect theory and use the internet survey to test them. Results indicate that among the respondents who faced prices below their expected price, only 12% chose to search, whereas 45% searched when prices were above. Further, we find results consistent with asymmetric search being driven by prospect theory. The change in consumers’ willingness to search is twice as large when prices exceed expectations by 2.5% relative to when prices exceed them by 5% suggesting that consumers derive utility of finding a good deal evaluated relative to a reference price. We show that this result is inconsistent with standard utility theory or consumers using alternative reference prices.     

我国上市公司盈余管理阈值研究——基于前景理论视角

文章从前景理论的视角对我国上市公司为了追求和超越市场阈值与政策阈值而实施的盈余管理行为进行研究,发现前景理论能较好的解释各种阈值两侧管理层的风险态度以及风险和收益之间的权衡关系,同时也检验了前景理论在我国的适用性。     

利率市场化能解决小微企业融资难问题吗*——基于行为金融学视角的分析

本文研究了银行信贷集中问题的成因,讨论了利率市场化背景下小微企业融资问题难的解决思路。本文首先以行为前景理论和心理账户理论为基础,考察授信者行为因素对银行授信决策的影响,以探讨小微企业融资困境形成和银行信贷集中问题产生的机制。然后本文讨论了分析信贷集中和小微企业融资问题所依赖的假设和变量,从收益和风险两个方面对商业银行信贷决策做出了研究。研究发现利率市场化改革可以有效缓解小微企业融资难和信贷资金集中于大中型企业的问题。     

On the potential for observational equivalence in experiments on risky choice when a power value function is assumed

We demonstrate theoretically and illustrate the implications of assuming power utility when the true function is of the expo-power form. Empirical results can appear to be consistent with cumulative prospect theory when they are in fact generated from a Markowitz model.     

基于供应商有次品的损失规避性零售商的易逝品订货策略

以获得最大期望效用为目标,考虑到制造商供货有次品的情况下,笔者借鉴展望理论建立了损失规避偏好型零售商的易逝品订货模型,对模型的最优条件和性质进行了讨论,并分析了产品次品率及损失规避程度、产品零售价格、批发价格对于零售商最优订货量的影响,得到了最优订货策略和一系列有意义的性质和管理原则。     

我国商业银行信用评估的行为决策框架与锚定效应分析

根据前景理论,通过对信贷经理人的调查,对信用评价的决策框架和信用评价中的锚定效应特征进行了实证分析.调查表明,信贷决策并不完全决定于信用评估结果,最优信用评价决策与现实不一致;在信用评估中,信贷经理人能力比信用评估体系更为重要,信贷经理人的经验、专业能力和价值观对信用评估都将产生影响;信用评估中存在锚定效应,对借款人信用评价产生重要影响.     

Managerial capital,occupational choice and inequality in a global economy

This study proposes a simple theory of trade with endogenous firm productivity, occupational choice and income inequality. Individuals with different managerial talent choose to become entrepreneurs or workers. Entrepreneurs enhance firm productivity by investing in managerial capital. The model generates three income classes: low‐income workers facing the prospect of unemployment, middle‐income entrepreneurs managing domestic firms and high‐income entrepreneurs managing global firms. Trade liberalization policies raise unemployment and improve welfare. A reduction in per‐unit trade costs raises top incomes and generates labour‐market polarization. A reduction in fixed exporting costs has an ambiguous effect on top incomes and personal income distribution. Policies reducing labour‐market frictions or the costs of managerial‐capital acquisition create more jobs and improve welfare. The income distributional effects of labour‐market policies depend on which policy is implemented.     

母公司控股、融资约束与企业创新投入

利用2012－2017年我国A股上市公司数据,检验母公司控股对企业创新投入的作用。结果发现：子公司创新投入意愿明显不足。进一步分析发现,融资约束弱化了母公司控股与企业创新投入意愿之间的关系。运用变换模型估计和变量处理方法检验后,结论仍然十分稳健。结论为法学和经济学的有限责任理论、管理学的前景理论与威胁刚性模型提供了经验证据,从而丰富了上述领域文献。同时,对我国集团型公司治理中的创新管理具有一定借鉴意义。     

Prospect Theory,Fairness, and the Escalation of Conflict at a Negotiation Impasse*

We study a bilateral negotiation set-up where, at a bargaining impasse, the disadvantaged party chooses whether to escalate the conflict or not. Escalation is costly for both parties, and it results in a random draw of the winner of the escalated conflict. We derive the behavioral predictions of a simple social utility function, which is convex in disadvantageous inequality, thus connecting the inequity aversion and the prospect theory models. Our causal laboratory evidence is, to a large extent, consistent with the predicted effects. Among other things, the model predicts that the escalation rate is higher when escalation outcomes are riskier, and that the disagreement rate is lower when the cost of escalating the conflict is higher.     

不完全契约理论:一个综述

标准的契约理论或委托-代理理论假定契约是完全的,然而现实中的契约是不完全的。契约的不完全会导致事前的最优契约失效,当事人在面临被“敲竹杠”的风险时会做出无效率的专用性投资。经济学家们在研究如何最大程度地减少由于契约不完全所导致的效率损失时,发展了一个新兴的不完全契约理论。本文以一个基本模型为基点,围绕专用性投资效率问题,从司法干预、赔偿、治理结构、产权以及履约等多个视角,全面地介绍了不完全契约理论的产生、发展、应用以及面临的挑战和未来的前景。