Evading the ‘Taint of Usury’: The usury prohibition as a barrier to entry

The development of capital markets in medieval Europe was shaped for centuries by the religious ban on lending money at interest. This paper examines how this prohibition developed as the outcome of strategic behavior by religious, commercial and political elites. A model is developed to analyze this hypothesis and to examine how the usury prohibition developed over time. It suggests that an important reason for the persistence of the ban was that it created a barrier to entry that enabled secular rulers, the Church, and a small number of merchant-bankers to earn monopoly rents.     

Are China's energy markets cointegrated?

The paper investigates energy price co-movement over the period 01/1999–12/2005 for China as a whole, and over sub-periods and for seven regions, using panel unit root and panel cointegration tests developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004). The results suggest that not all energy sources are spatially homogenous in prices and the processes of energy price cointegration are different over sub-periods; over groups of fuels; and over regions. Coal and electricity prices have co-moved since 2003 while gasoline and diesel prices have co-moved since 1997. The results show that there are clearly variations in the emergence of energy price co-movement over regions, implying that regional fuel markets have emerged in China. Important lessons that can be learnt from the results are that an energy market has, to some extent, already emerged in China and, as a result, energy prices are substantially less distorted than before. If correct, these findings have significant global implications both in terms of future emission reductions, emission trading and trade negotiations where China should be treated as a ‘market driven economy’.     

An alternative method of measuring economic efficiency: The case of grain production in China

The objective of this paper is to suggest a simple method to gauge the economic efficiency of firms, when there are no reliable price data. Applying the suggested method on the recent Chinese farm-household survey data collected during 1993 and 1994, this study shows that majority of grain farmers in China are not producing at the optimum levels which yield maximum profits. The analysis also indicates that output can be increased by consolidating rather than further segmenting the operational area of grains.     

Land fragmentation and farm productivity in China in the 1990s

The main objective of this study is to examine the effects of fragmentation on farm productivity in China and to discuss policy implications. Some earlier work has questioned the importance of the economic costs of land fragmentation in developing economies. It has been argued that policymakers should focus instead on reducing the root causes of fragmentation: inefficiencies in land, labour, credit, and food markets. Our results, using a more recent and larger dataset from a household survey in China, find that fragmentation does have an economic cost in China. Production functions are estimated for each of the major grain crops in the sample provinces. We also argue that to reduce the economic costs, land consolidation in China should be undertaken with less government intervention. More attention should be given to the establishment of markets for land (or land use rights) and improvements in rural credit and grain markets.     

Do Chinese farmers reinvest in grain production?

Grain production is affected by the relocation of farm household labour from on-farm to off-farm activities and by an increase in the investment in grain production as a result of increase in farm household income that occurs along with such a labour shift. This study uses a recent farm household survey data to examine whether Chinese grain households do reinvest in grain production. It has found that household income growth contributes to higher investment in grain production although a higher share of non-agricultural income has a negative effect. The authors' other research has found a negligible direct impact of farm to non-farm labour transfer on grain production. We may conclude that in the near future, the total impact (direct and indirect) of labour transfer from farm to non-farm production on grain output is expected to be positive. In the long run, in may become negative when more and more labour shifts out of grain production and marginal product of labour becomes positive.     

The usefulness of earnings versus book value for predicting stock returns and cross corporate ownership in Japan

Using a sample of Japanese firms, this paper evaluates the usefulness of the two fundamental products of an accrual accounting system, namely accrual earnings and book value of equity for predicting stock returns. Our analysis shows that both earnings and book value for Japanese firms have the ability to provide for profitable trading strategies or improved portfolio decisions, and that relative to the trading strategy based on earnings or book value alone, the trading strategy based on a combination of both earnings and book value generates substantially higher returns for all cases. This suggests that book value (or earnings) captures certain aspects of equity values that are not captured by earnings (book value). Our multivariate regression results further indicate that the predictive ability of earnings is dominated by that of book value. Finally, it is found that the predictive ability of book value is sensitive to the degree of cross corporate ownership, while it is insensitive to the degree of real estate holding.     

Bank market power, economic growth and financial stability: Evidence from Asian banks

This paper examines whether Asian banks are still prone to moral hazard in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian crisis. Using a sample of commercial banks from 12 Asian countries during the 2001–2007 period, our empirical findings highlight that greater market power in the banking market results in higher instability. Although banks are better capitalized in less competitive markets their default risk remains higher. A deeper investigation however shows that such behaviour is dependent on the economic environment. Higher economic growth contributes to neutralize greater risk taking and higher instability in less competitive markets.     

The direct impact of the relocation of farm labour on Chinese grain production

The shift from collective to household-based farming and the move towards a market economy have increased the opportunity cost of grain production and caused a withdrawal of labour from grain farming in China. Since Chinese grain production is important to both China and the world, there are concerns about whether such a farm labour relocation will have a destructive impact on China's grain production. The previous production function studies ignored the effects of changes in labour quantity and quality on grain production. Using recently available sample survey data on Chinese farm households, this paper incorporates production function analysis with human capital analysis to examine the direct impact of the relocation of farm labour on China's grain production. It has found that the relocation of farm labour has not harmed the Chinese grain production in general, but its impact varies across regions with different factor endowments that affect the choice of farming technology.     

Danger on the exchange: How counterparty risk was managed on the Paris exchange in the nineteenth century

In the nineteenth century, the Paris Bourse struggled to manage counterparty risk, revealing the awkward choices for the regulation of derivatives markets. The exchange, primarily a forward market, instituted a mutual guarantee fund to prevent broker failures from snowballing into a liquidity crisis. The fund then forced the Bourse to search for mechanisms to control moral hazard. With new archival data, we describe the evolving regulatory regime and analyze the determinants of broker failures. The Bourse faced a conundrum; when it finally imposed a tight regulatory regime that limited risk, trading began to migrate off the exchange to less regulated markets.     

Real interest parity: A note on Asian countries using panel stationarity tests

Existing panel data studies of real interest parity are either unable to identify which panel members are characterised by stationary real interest differentials, or are subject to size distortion resulting from the presence of structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies. Using a panel stationarity testing procedure recently advocated by Hadri and Rao (2008) that allows for structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency, we are unable to reject the stationarity of Asian real interest rate differentials.     

Serial defaults, serial profits: Returns to sovereign lending in Habsburg Spain, 1566–1600

Philip II of Spain accumulated debts equivalent to 60% of GDP. He also defaulted four times on his short-term loans, thus becoming the first serial defaulter in history. Contrary to a common view in the literature, we show that lending to the king was profitable even under worst-case scenario assumptions. Lenders maintained long-term relationships with the crown. Losses sustained during defaults were more than compensated by profits in normal times. Defaults were not catastrophic events. In effect, short-term lending acted as an insurance mechanism, allowing the king to reduce his payments in harsh times in exchange for paying a premium in tranquil periods.     

Threshold effect in international linkage of stock prices

This paper examines whether the international linkage of the stock price indexes found in previous studies is confirmed for the case where the stock index changes only slightly, utilizing the daily stock price index data from 1975 to 1995 for the US, UK, Germany, and Japan. Using dummy variables in the regressions, it is shown that small changes in the stock price index of any country do not affect the other country's index. In contrast, large changes have a significant effect in most cases. Thus, there is a threshold effect in international linkage of stock prices. It is also shown that negative large changes have a clearer effect than positive ones.     

Building the dynamic linkages between R & D and productivity growth

This study attempts to integrate the dynamic and spillover characteristics of R & D into the explanation of total factor productivity growth. To characterize the dynamic feature of R & D, the dynamic growth model is reformulated to explicitly consider the contribution of R & D. The two different types of spillover effects are characterized as one that can be used directly and the other that needs to be assimilated by firms' own investment. Empirical application of the theoretical methodology facilitates investigating factors contributing to the growth of the manufacturing sector in Taiwan over the period 1980–1991. It is found that the scale-related components have a dominant contribution in the growth of total factor productivity contributing approximately 95.3% of the growth. Although the spillover effect is quite insignificant, accumulation of R & D capital contributes nearly half of the residual growth of the manufacturing sector.     

The Western European marriage pattern and economic development

For several centuries before the First World War women's age at first marriage in the west of Europe was higher than in the east (and in the rest of the world). In their low mortality regimes Western Europeans chose lower fertility in part through a higher female age at marriage. This allowed women to increase their human capital both formally and informally in the years before child bearing so that more informed mothers brought up better educated offspring. The demographic pattern influenced the stock of human capital and directly contributed to Western Europe's development advantage. The predicted relations of this economic model of the household are tested with two datasets, one at the county level for England for the second half of the nineteenth century and the other at the national level for Europe 1870–1910.     

A politically feasible social security reform with a two-tier structure

This paper investigates the welfare implications and political feasibility of social security reforms with a two-tier structure in Japan. We evaluate social security reforms from two points of view: (i) the ex-ante expected value of future generations, and (ii) whether current generations prefer reform to the status-quo system, which we call political feasibility. To evaluate the reforms, we use a large-scale overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic income risk and a two-tier structure. The first tier guarantees a basic pension and the second tier consists of the earnings-related part. Calibrating the parameters of the model to the Japanese economy, we compute the transition path and the two welfare criteria. We find that, given the two-tier structure in Japan, an increase in the basic pension and the abolition of the earnings-related part of the social security system improve the welfare of future generations, and ensures political feasibility when a consumption tax is the source of revenue.     

Agricultural institutions, industrialization and growth: The case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870–1940

In this paper we apply a model of early industrialization to the case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870–1940. We show how differences in agricultural institutions may have produced different development paths in two countries which were similar under many respects. While in New Zealand the active role of the Crown in regulating the land market facilitated access to land, in Uruguay land was seized by a small group of large landowners. Our model shows that land concentration may have negatively influenced industrialization and growth by impeding the formation of a large group of middle-income landowners and, as a consequence, the development of a domestic demand for basic manufactures. We support this view with a comparative analysis of agricultural institutions and industrial development in New Zealand and Uruguay.     

Labor market adjustment under transition in Laos

Laos has engaged in an ambitious program of economic reforms, the New Economic Mechanism. Yet little attention has been devoted to the impact of the reform process on the functioning of the labour market and to the role of the labour market in mobilizing human resources. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of reform policy on the labor market and to show how a better adjustment of the labor market can facilitate the success of the New Economic Mechanism. The purpose of the paper is also to show how a better use of the information generated in the labor market can contribute to transforming the reform process into a process of sustained economic growth in Laos.     

The health cost of living in a city: The case of France at the end of the 19th century

Despite a long standing debate over urban living conditions during industrialization, the impact of rural–urban migrations on health and mortality remains an open question. We observe both mortality and geographical mobility in a large longitudinal dataset of French males and show that rural–urban migrants benefited from clear advantages over those who already lived in the city. However, this benefit fades in a few years. Further we find no evidence of a spike in mortality among rural migrants as they encountered the more severe disease environment of cities, instead it seems their initially superior physical human capital was depleted over time.     

Monetary autonomy in selected Asian economies: The role of international reserves

With the increased financial integration of Asian countries, monetary policy takes on the additional role of maintaining the stability of the financial system along with the traditional objectives of promoting growth and employment with price stability. Given the importance and relevance of monetary policy in Asian countries, we examine monetary autonomy and its interaction with financial integration, currency regimes and international reserves for the past two decades in the following Asian countries: Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and India. The empirical analysis reveals two significant and interesting findings that have policy implications. First, Thailand, Korea and Indonesia, countries that have moved towards a floating currency regime, experienced simultaneous declines in the sensitivity of their interest rates (thereby increasing monetary autonomy), while India continues to increase the sensitivity of its interest rates with a pegged exchange rate and increased financial integration. Second, in all of the studied economies, the accumulation of international reserves has contributed, to some extent, to the retention of monetary autonomy in terms of preventing the sensitivity of the interest rates from rising. We speculate that the accumulation of reserves plays the role of an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies facing a “fear of floating”.     

“Keep silent and make money”: Institutional patterns of earnings management in China

Assessing the overall quality of Chinese financial data is important to both academic researchers and regulators. Using data from the industrial census of China, we examine the institutional pattern of the manipulation of reported profit statistics by manufacturing firms. This manipulation of profits is called “earnings management.” We find that earnings management is more pervasive in China than in mature market economies such as the U.S., and that Chinese firms appear to follow a “keep silent, make money” strategy by managing their reported earnings to zero. Specifically, we find that increased earnings management is associated with state-owned firms, firms reporting to higher levels of government, and firms in more marketized regions.