基于时间价值的TSR模型对公司价值分析的启示

本文论述的TSR(Total Shareholder Return)模型以折现现金流(DCF)为理论基础,全面分析了用来测量公司价值及业绩的主要参数,包括销售额、利润、资本成本、资产报酬率及自由现金流等,并综合利用了净现值(NPV)、内含报酬(IRR)和VAR风险分析等投资分析工具,有效地衡量了公司的内在价值和分公司或事业部(Business Unit)的业绩,并约束了公司经营者规划的公司远期战略目标及制定的各项计划符合股东的利益。本文就TSR技术的决定因素和模型的建立展开论述,并简要说明了此模型对上市公司价值及业绩分析的启示。     

项目投资的综合因子评价研究

应用单指标进行项目投资方案的筛选容易产生选择偏差，从而给投资带来损失。因此本文着重分析将多指标综合评估方法应用到项目方案评价过程中，根据评估结果进行方案选择。分析利用财务净现值、内部收益率、财务净现值率和年金指标等多个指标进行综合分析的方法。本文引入因子分析模型将多个指标综合成少数几个公共因子。根据因子分析理论，计算每种方案的因子总分，根据分数高低进行方案排序，从而选出最优方案。     

北京市住房市场泡沫实证研究 ----基于投资视角

将住房购买视作旨在解决自住问题的一项长期投资,通过现金流净现值、溢价率、内部收益率等指标的计算来考察一个地区住房市场是否存在泡沫及其程度。以2009年3-5月易居网上发布的二手住房出售、出租数据为基础,应用上述方法对北京市朝阳、崇文、东城、丰台、海淀、石景山、西城、宣武等8个城区住房市场研究表明,这8个城区住房市场均不同程度地存在泡沫。     

Black-White Differences in Consumption: An Update and Some Policy Implications

Marcus Alexis, in his Ph. D. dissertation and in later published work, conducted pioneering work in the area of black-white differences in consumption behavior and thereby influenced our understanding of household behavior and significantly impacted the field of marketing. This paper recapitulates his findings and reviews some contemporary work on black-white differences in consumption and some implications for future work on differences in consumption behavior.     

Earldoms and baronies as economic enterprises in seventeenth century Finland

Abstract

In his comprehensive monograph of nearly eight hundred pages, the first volume of which was published as an academic dissertation six years ago, Professor Jokipii has undertaken to give an account of the brief history of Finnish earldoms and baronies. With two exceptions these twenty-nine large-scale fiefs lasted in all only a quarter of a century (the third quarter of the seventeenth century). Nevertheless, they made their mark on the later development of Finland.     

The interest function approach

Summary This article reviews Frans van Winden's Ph.D. dissertation,On the Interaction between State and Private Sector: A Study in Political Economics, State University Leyden, 1981, viii+319 pages. The proclaimed objective of the book is to present a nonnormative, theoretical analysis of the interaction between state and private sector in a capitalist economy. Review of the analysis leads us to conclude that the objective is not met. I would like to thank Jean Paelinck and Rick van der Ploeg for their suggestions, and also Bernard van Praag for his apparent interest in the matter. I am particularly indebted to Professor F.A.A.M. van Winden who kindly provided extensive comments on the first draft of this review. Sloan Foundation and Netherlands Organization for the Advancement of Pure Research (Z.W.O.) grants through New York and Erasmus Universities, respectively, are gratefully acknowledged.     

Population mobility in the Netherlands 1880–1910. A case study of Wisch in the Achterhoek

Abstract

In the last two decades, migration as 3. phenomenon has been studied intensively and scientifically. Apart from migration in general, Scandinavian scholars have taken a special interest in the great flood of emigration during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. A large number of dissertations and other studies have described and analysed the phenomenon. Samson's work on emigration and mobility must be seen in this context, having started as a dissertation within the project ‘Sweden and America after 1860’, commonly referred to as the Emigration Research Project.¹     

An Index‐Based Model for Determining the Investment Benchmark of Renewable Energy Projects in South Africa

In a globalised world, financial markets observe the optimal level of asset allocation and returns based on risk inherent in the economies. Whether public or private investors, they need to have an optimal return on their investment given the finite resources. In relatively new sectors like grid‐connected renewable energy, many investors face difficulty in assessing proper return, making them more averse to financing such projects, affecting transborder project development opportunities. In developing countries like South Africa, which has tremendous potential for renewable energy projects, an arbitrary choice of the required rate of return for project evaluations can negatively affect funding decisions. This paper explores an index‐based model to make fair estimates of the required equity benchmark internal rate of return (IRR) using financial markets observation for renewable energy projects in South Africa. The index‐based model is parsimonious and captures common macroeconomic factors. More specifically, it provides a simple and effective mechanism to calculate IRR for renewable energy projects given different gestation periods.     

中、美汇率之争的博弈分析

经济全球化时代,两国汇率的形成是两国间博弈的结果。中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,而美国是当今世界上最大的发达国家。从博弈论角度考察,两国在汇率问题上的重复博弈能够达到一个子博弈完美那什均衡。本文对人民币和美元汇率的波动运用了博弈理论分析了双方的得益和支付,并提出了中方在汇率问题上的政策建议。     

中国房地产上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证分析

本文采用了实证分析与规范分析相结合的研究方法,对中国房地产上市公司的融资行为和融资选择进行了研究,以一些资本结构理论中所揭示的影响企业资本结构的因素为假设,应用因子分析和回归分析二步模型分析了影响房地产上市公司的主要因素;本文试图通过以上分析,为房地产企业融资决策与企业融资问题有关的政策制定提供理论依据和实践指导。     

怎样求IRR的高精度近似值？

本文论述了内部收益率ＩＲＲ高精度近似值计算的必要性和常规计算的不精确性，从内部收益率插值公式入手，通过电子计算器，经过几个循环计算，便可得到精度为小数点１０位的近似值。     

欧洲中心论与中国中心观的糅合?——读韩毓海的《五百年来谁著史》

韩毓海教授在《五百年来谁著史》一书中以"中国中心观"的视角从基层、金融、世界这三方面来解读1500年来的中国与世界历史,认为中国的"国家能力的持续下降"是明清经济崩溃的根源;西方的发展并不是历史的必然,而只是"历史的耦合"。韩毓海在论述时并没有完全跳出欧洲中心论的视角,而是两种视角交织在一起的。     

怎样求IRR的高精度近似值?

本文论述了内部收益率IRR高精度近似值计算的必要性和常规计算的不精确性 ,从内部收益率插值公式入手 ,通过电子计算器 ,经过几个循环计算 ,便可得到精度为小数点 10位的近似值。     

费尔普斯对宏观经济学的贡献

美国哥伦比亚大学教授埃德蒙·费尔普斯因在宏观经济学方面做出了杰出的贡献而获得2006年度诺贝尔经济学奖.其贡献主要体现在两个方面,即对通货膨胀与失业问题的研究以及对资本积累的研究.本文就对这两个方面予以介绍.     

United states and french competition in the world market

Conclusion The purpose of the study has been to examine whether the direction of international trade is governed by the doctrine of comparative cost. It is concluded that this doctrine does explain a significant percentage of the flow of trade between the two countries studied. There are additional factors, however, as listed in the introduction which also influence trade between nations.The inability to include non-labor costs such as material costs and selling costs in explaining the variations in the exports of France and the U.S., results from the paucity of data available in these areas in the national statistics of France. However, since the establishment of the O.E.C.D., additional data concerning industries have been made available in growing volume. Moreover, the O.E.C.D. has endeavored to harmonize the ways in which data from the European countries and the U.S. are collected. As comparable data become available, further research will be necessary to measure the importance of non-labor costs to total costs and their influence on export performance.A large section of the article has been adapted from the author's 1969 doctoral dissertation at the New School for Social Research.     

润物无声春有功——记教育与德育工作案例

通过2个案例介绍如何在日常教学中引导学生养成良好的学习习惯、重塑学生的品格,最终将其锻造成有责任感,勇于担当,为社会创造价值、做出贡献的技能人才。     

基于现金流量的企业财务危机预警系统分析

一般说来，企业生产经营得以持续的基本条件是获得足够的现金流量。文章尝试从现金流量角度出发，通过分析和准确把握现金流量指标来进行财务预警，以期对财务危机预警系统的研究有所帮助。     

The problem of railway ownership in 19th century Finland

Abstract

Dr. Oredsson's extremely able and original doctoral dissertation! is concerned primarily with the issue of state versus private railway policy in certain countries. So far as Finland is concerned, he confines himself to strategic considerations, dismissing the subject of ownership with the statement: ‘All railways of major importance were built by the State’ (p. 23). The impression gained by the reader is that from the outset State ownership was regarded as self-evident in Finland. This, however, was not the case. My intention in this note is not to criticise Oredsson, but to supplement his account of the railway policy of Sweden's eastern neighbour.     

The Structure of Production,the Balance of Payments and Growth in Developing Countries: An Essay in Memory of Mohammed Nureldin Hussain 1954–2005

Abstract: This essay commemorates the work of Mohammed Nureldin Hussain who was Chief Research Economist in the African Development Bank, and Editor of the African Development Review from 2003 to his untimely death in 2005. It focuses on five aspects of his work: his emphasis on the role of the structure of production and trade for an understanding of growth rate differences between countries; his development of the balance of payments constrained growth model with capital flows; the application of this model to compare the performance of African and Asian countries; his use of this model as an alternative to the Harrod–Domar growth model for estimating the financing requirements in Africa to meet the Millennium Poverty Reduction targets by 2015 — and also for estimating the impact of the Highly Indebted Poor Country initiative on growth and poverty reduction in Africa, and finally, his critical appraisal in the 1980s of the supply‐side approach to devaluation in his own country, the Sudan.     

基于竞争优先权理论的企业效率测评模型研究

关于企业效率,目前学者们大多通过DEA模型来测评企业某一时点的技术效率,而对企业整体效率,以及效率可持续性的研究较为少见。本文基于竞争优先权理论,建立起产品成本、质量、服务、创新和交货速度等竞争优先权要素与现金流量指标之间的关联。以391家制造业上市公司为样本,利用现金流量指标,建立了多元线性回归的企业效率测评模型,并对模型进行了检验。研究发现：资产现金流量回报率指标具有较强的区分企业效率高低的能力,并且通过观察该指标连续4年的变化趋势能够预测企业效率的可持续性。