Determinants of analysts’ revenue forecast accuracy

This study investigates financial analysts’ revenue forecasts and identifies determinants of the forecasts’ accuracy. We find that revenue forecast accuracy is determined by forecast and analyst characteristics similar to those of earnings forecast accuracy—namely, forecast horizon, days elapsed since the last forecast, analysts’ forecasting experience, forecast frequency, forecast portfolio, reputation, earnings forecast issuance, forecast boldness, and analysts’ prior performance in forecasting revenues and earnings. We develop a model that predicts the usefulness of revenue forecasts. Thereby, our study helps to ex ante identify more accurate revenue forecasts. Furthermore, we find that analysts concern themselves with their revenue forecasting performance. Analysts with poor revenue forecasting performance are more likely to stop forecasting revenues than analysts with better performance. Their decision is reasonable because revenue forecast accuracy affects analysts’ career prospects in terms of being promoted or terminated. Our study helps investors and academic researchers to understand determinants of revenue forecasts. This understanding is also beneficial for evaluating earnings forecasts because revenue forecasts reveal whether changes in earnings forecasts are due to anticipated changes in revenues or expenses.     

The effect of chief financial officers’ accounting expertise on corporate tax avoidance: the role of compensation design

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Accounting expertise is closely related to corporate tax planning, and hence, corporate chief financial officers (CFOs) with accounting expertise may...     

The impact of large tax settlement favorability on firms’ subsequent tax avoidance

Review of Accounting Studies - I consider how large tax settlements compare to management expectations and then test how the favorability of a resolution (from the firm’s perspective) affects...     

The effect of consistency in book-tax differences on analysts’ earnings forecasts: Evidence from forecast accuracy and informativeness

This study examines the relationship between the consistency of book-tax differences and the quality of analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that the consistency of book-tax differences is associated with more accurate and informative forecasts. This suggests that the information embedded in the consistency of book-tax differences plays an important role in elevating the quality of analysts’ forecasts. Furthermore, the effect of consistency in book-tax differences on analyst forecast quality is greater for firms with noisier information environment. Finally, we find that the relation between consistency in book-tax differences and improvements in forecast accuracy and informativeness is stronger after the implementation of Regulation Fair Disclosure, which increased the role of public information in analysts’ forecasts.     

Correction to: The impact of large tax settlement favorability on firms’ subsequent tax avoidance

Review of Accounting Studies - The author has to move Table 7 “Sample selection for large tax settlement favorability measure” as Table 1 and mention it at “This procedure,...     

The effects of firms’ information environment on analysts’ herding behavior

We find financial analysts herd to a greater degree in firms with more opaque information environments as measured by the incidence of short-term institutional investors present. The S-statistic, a measure of forecast bias, and forecast timing and quality metrics are used to measure analyst herding behavior. The results are consistent with the notion that opaque information environments are more conducive to analysts engaging in reputational herding behavior where more capable analysts act first and less capable analysts follow. Additionally, analysts are more likely to issue forecast revisions subsequent to management earnings guidance in less opaque environments. Robustness tests indicate our operational measure of opacity is not subsumed by other measures of the information environment, namely information asymmetry.     

The impact of accruals and lines of business on analysts’ earnings forecast superiority

In this paper, we examine the linkage between analyst advantage (AA) (compared to the seasonal random walk model) in the prediction of quarterly earnings-per-share (EPS) and a broad set of economic determinants. Specifically, we employ a pooled cross-sectional time-series regression model where AA is linked to a set of firm-specific economic determinants that have been employed in extant work (e.g., Brown et al. in J Account Res 22:49?C67, 1987; Kross et al. in Account Rev 65:461?C476, 1990). We refine this set of independent variables by including a new variable (RATIODEV) based upon Sloan (Account Rev 71(3):289?C315, 1996) who documents that differential levels of accruals impact future earnings performance. This variable is particularly salient in explaining AA since analysts may be in a position to identify the permanent component of accruals via fundamental financial analysis. Additionally, we refine the measurement of lines of business??consistent with the reporting requirements of SFAS No. 131 relative to extant work that operationalized proxies for this variable based upon SFAS No. 14. Parameters for these aforementioned variables are significantly positively related to AA, consistent with theory.     

Do investor expectations affect sell-side analysts’ forecast bias and forecast accuracy?

We examine the association between investor expectations and its components and sell-side analysts’ short-run quarterly earnings forecast bias and forecast accuracy. To measure investor expectations, we use the Index of Consumer Expectations survey and decompose it into the “fundamental” component related to underlying economic factors (FUND) and the “sentiment” component unrelated to underlying economic factors (SENT). We find that analysts are the most optimistic and the least accurate when SENT is higher. Management long-horizon earnings forecasts attenuate the effects of SENT on forecast optimism and forecast accuracy. Analysts are also the most accurate when FUND is higher. Last, the market places more weight on unexpected earnings when SENT is high. These findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment and the market reacts more strongly to unexpected earnings when analyst forecasts are the least accurate. The last result potentially explains why prior research (for example, Baker and Wurgler, The Journal of Finance 61:1645–1680, 2006) finds an association between investor sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns.     

CEO stock options and analysts’ forecast accuracy and bias

This paper investigates the relationship between CEO stock options and analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy and bias. A higher level of stock options may induce managers to undertake riskier projects, to change and/or reallocate their effort, and to possibly engage in gaming (such as opportunistic earnings and disclosure management). These managerial behaviors result in an increase in the complexity of forecasting and hence, less accurate analysts’ forecasts. Analysts’ optimistic forecast bias may also increase as the level of stock options pay increases. Because forecast complexity increases with stock options pay, analysts, needing greater access to management’s information to produce accurate forecasts, have incentives to increase the optimistic bias in their forecasts. Alternatively, a higher level of stock options pay may lead to improved disclosure because it better aligns managers’ and shareholders’ interests. The improved disclosure, in turn, may result in more accurate and less biased analysts’ forecasts. Our empirical evidence indicates that analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy decreases and forecast optimism increases as the level of CEO stock options increases. This evidence suggests that the incentive alignment effects of stock options are more than offset by the investment, effort allocation and gaming incentives induced by stock options grants to CEOs.     

Evidence of differing market responses to beating analysts’ targets through tax expense decreases

Returns are positive when firms meet or beat analysts’ consensus forecasts, but negative when firms miss. Prior research finds little substantial discount for managing earnings to beat the forecasts via accruals generally. We consider whether the market reward for beating the forecast is smaller when firms use tax expense decreases, which are visible and transparent at the earnings announcement date, unlike accruals. When firms beat analysts’ forecasts by decreasing their tax expense relative to the third-quarter rate, the market discounts the reward by an economically significant amount: approximately 86%. We document lower persistence of current-year tax changes for those firms that decrease tax expense to beat the target. The observed discount for beating the forecast only because of a third to fourth quarter tax decrease may reflect market perceptions of the lack of persistence of the decrease.     

Relative accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts over time: a Markov chain analysis

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the time patterns of individual analysts’ relative accuracy ranking in earnings forecasts using a Markov chain model. Two levels of stochastic persistence are found in analysts’ relative accuracy over time. Factors underlying analysts’ performance persistence are identified and they include analyst’s length of experience, workload, and the size and growth rate of firms followed by the analyst. The strength and the composition of these factors are found to vary markedly in different industries. The findings support the general notion that analysts are heterogeneous in their accuracy in earnings forecasts and that their superior/inferior performance tends to persist over time. An analysis based on a refined measure of analysts’ forecast accuracy ranking that strips off firm-specific factors further enhances the empirical validity of the findings. These findings provide a concrete basis for researchers to further explore why and how analysts perform differently in the competitive market of investment information services.     

Discussion of “Evidence of differing market responses to beating analysts’ targets through tax expense decreases”

Gleason and Mills (2008, Review of Accounting Studies) extend prior research investigating whether investors detect obvious earnings management. They improve on previous efforts to answer this question by examining firms with a clear motivation to manage earnings and by investigating a specific earnings management tool. They investigate firms that fall short of analysts’ expectations when income tax expense is based on the third quarter effective tax rate but meet expectations by reducing the fourth quarter tax expense below predicted tax expense. Their results suggest that investors are sophisticated enough to identify a transparent earnings management tool and that they discount the fact that firms meet expectations using such an obvious tactic. Specifically, the authors find evidence suggesting that the reward for meeting analysts’ expectations is 86% lower when managers use the tax expense as an earnings management tool to meet expectations. The puzzling feature of their results is that, although it is diminished, investors still reward firms for meeting expectations when they can only do so through an apparently obvious manipulation of tax expense.     

The effect of corporate tax avoidance on salary distribution——Empirical evidence from publicly listed companies in China

Corporate tax avoidance is ubiquitous and has a wide range of economic implications. In this paper, we investigate the effect of corporate tax avoidance on the pay level for employees and the internal pay gap between executives and ordinary employees based on the perspective of salary distribution. The results show that corporate tax avoidance can significantly improve the average pay level of all the staff, but the “inclusive” benefit on employee remuneration brought by tax avoidance is not evenly distributed. More of the increased remunerations are allocated to the top management, further widening executives-ordinary employees pay gap. In addition, evidence from the cross-section analysis reveals that the current life cycle, the level of realized pay, and the short-term investment strategy in Chinese publicly listed companies can significantly affect the relationship between corporate tax avoidance and the internal pay gap. Further analysis suggests that the remuneration-increase effect of corporate tax avoidance can contribute to improving employees' efficiency, but the uneven distribution of tax-saving benefits interferes with such improvement to some extent. Overall, our results demonstrate that reasonable and effective corporate tax avoidance features a certain degree of “inclusiveness” since it helps raise the pay level of the whole staff, which sheds light on the necessity of persistent implementation of tax and fee reduction policies in China.     

Does common auditor have an impact on corporate tax avoidance? An investigation from the supply chain perspective

We find that, at both the audit firm and partner level, having a common auditor in the supply chain has a significant positive association with the supplier company's degree of tax avoidance. Companies report a higher level of tax avoidance when they are audited by an industry-expert or a tax expert common auditor, when the common audit partner is economically dependent on the supplier company, when the audit client is in a highly competitive industry, and when the company is subject to a high level of information asymmetry. Moreover, we find potential audit quality issues embedded in common audits in the supply chain.     

Improvement in clinical trial disclosures and analysts’ forecast accuracy: evidence from the pharmaceutical industry

This paper examines whether financial analysts use the information contained in clinical trial disclosures to improve their forecast accuracy for pharmaceutical companies. Findings indicate that the improved clinical trial disclosures due to a quasi-regulation issued by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) significantly reduce analysts’ long-term forecast error. In addition, a propensity-score matching analysis provides additional strong evidence that issuance of the 2005 ICMJE’s regulation is accompanied by an average 45 % decrease in long-term forecast error, and a more than 50 % decrease in long-term forecast dispersion. This study contributes to the accounting literature regarding nonfinancial disclosures by providing the first insights into financial analysts’ use of clinical trial disclosures in their forecasts of future earnings. In addition, because the major event examined in this study is a quasi-regulation issued by the ICMJE, we provide additional insights on the effectiveness of industry-initiated regulations (or quasi-regulations) on nonfinancial disclosure practice.     

The effect of non-recurring items on analysts’ earnings forecasts

This article discusses the effects of non-recurring profits and losses on statement users’ decision-making processes from the perspective of securities analysts. We examine the relationship between analysts’ forecast revisions and firms’ non-recurring earnings. We find that 1) non-recurring gains and losses can influence analysts’ earnings forecast revision; 2) compared with non-recurring items resulting from policy changes, analysts are more concerned about those attributed to changes in business scope; 3) if listed companies use non-recurring items to turn losses into gains during earnings management, it will weaken the effects of non-recurring items on analysts’ earnings forecast revision. The results suggest that non-recurring items that result from changes in business scope incorporate information that users need for the future operation of the business. This article verifies the information relevance of non-recurring items and provides evidence for the necessity of non-recurring item disclosure.     

Information processing costs and corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from the SEC’s XBRL mandate

The IRS uses information contained in financial statements as well as tax returns to detect tax avoidance behavior. We examine the impact on corporate tax avoidance behavior of reductions in the IRS’s information processing costs resulting from the mandatory adoption of XBRL for financial reporting. Motivated by the recent debate in the U.S. Congress over the cost-benefit of mandatory XBRL reporting for small firms, we pay particular attention to small firms, which inherently have relatively high information frictions. We find that the adoption of XBRL for financial reporting results in a significant decrease in tax avoidance. We further find that the negative relation between XBRL reporting and tax avoidance is less prominent for firms subject to more intense IRS monitoring in the pre-XBRL-reporting period. Overall, our results suggest that XBRL reporting reduces the cost of IRS monitoring in terms of information processing, which dampens managerial incentives to engage in tax avoidance behavior.     

Seeing is believing: analysts’ corporate site visits

This study examines the impact of corporate site visits on analysts’ forecast accuracy based on a sample of such visits to Chinese listed firms during 2009–2012. We find that analysts who conduct visits (“visiting analysts”) have a greater increase in forecast accuracy than other analysts. Consistent with the notion that site visits facilitate analysts’ information acquisition through observing firms’ operations, we find that the results are stronger for manufacturing firms, firms with more tangible assets, and firms with more concentrated business lines. Moreover, we find that the effect of a site visit is greater when the site visit is an analyst-only visit, when the current visit is preceded by fewer visits, and when visiting analysts are based far from the visited firms. Furthermore, we find that site visits partially mitigate nonlocal analysts’ information disadvantage. Collectively, these results indicate that site visits are an important information acquisition activity for analysts.     

Investor valuations of Japan’s adoption of a territorial tax regime: quantifying the direct and competitive effects of international tax reform

This paper examines the impact of Japan’s 2009 adoption of a territorial tax regime using event study methods which leverage individual firm characteristics to identify underlying drivers of market reactions. Differences in Japanese firms’ foreign and domestic effective tax rates yield an aggregate capitalization effect of \(\yen \)4.3 trillion, while firms with less prior foreign exposure and fewer opportunities for tax avoidance experienced relatively larger abnormal returns. We attribute these results to tax savings on existing undistributed foreign earnings, enhanced opportunities for international expansion, and cultural biases against tax planning. Spillovers to the US (through tax or firm competition) appear insignificant.