Exploring firm characteristics that differentiate leaders from followers in industry merger waves: a competitive dynamics perspective

Research in strategic management has shown that the timing of firm participation in a merger wave matters, as early movers have been shown to outperform later ones. However, while the consequences of the timing of action within a merger wave have been assessed, the causes that drive these timing effects remain unknown. We draw on the competitive dynamics perspective to investigate firm‐level factors that influence the large‐scale strategic behavior of leading or following within industry merger waves. We develop hypotheses based on the competitive dynamics argument that the awareness‐motivation‐capability of firms will influence the timing of competitive action. Consistent with this perspective, we show that a firm's strategic orientation, its structure, and its resource base influence the timing of firm entry in merger waves. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Technological powerhouse or diluted competence: Techniques for assessing mergers via patent analysis

On a daily basis, we are bombarded with the news of yet another mega–merger. The business press generally greets these announcements with breathless projections based on extrapolations of combined sales, earnings, and R&D spending, with little emphasis on whether the merged companies will be worth the sum of their parts. In this paper we examine patent analysis techniques for evaluating the technological strength of merger candidates, and explore the notion that the technological quality of the merged company may be diluted rather than enhanced. We will also use patent analysis methods for examining the market value of companies, to determine whether a merger target is over– or under–priced. We will explore all of these techniques within the context of a case study of the proposed merger between Glaxo–Wellcome and SmithKline Beecham, although the techniques can be readily applied to any merger within an R&D intensive industry.     

Does competition increase quality? Evidence from the US airline industry

This paper studies the impact of competition on quality provision in the US airline industry exploiting a novel source of exogenous variation in competition. While mergers among market incumbents may stifle competition, a merger may increase the probability of entry if the merging airlines were not operating prior to merger in the market but each of them had presence at different route endpoints. We find non-merging incumbent airlines increase their flight frequency upon entry threat and accommodate entry of the newly merged airline by lowering flight frequency upon entry. While non-merging incumbents reduced arrival delays only upon entry of the newly merged airline, we find that incumbents decrease their cancelation rates and departure delays both upon merger announcement and entry of the newly merged airline. Our evidence suggests an increase in competition may increase consumer surplus, because non-merging incumbents increase quality and convenience, while keeping their prices unchanged.     

The Entry-Inducing Effects of Horizontal Mergers: An Exploratory Analysis

Antitrust law presumes that entry normally prevents or reverses anticompetitive effects from horizontal mergers. But when sunk costs associated with entry are at levels suggested by prevailing market structure, the opportunity for entry created by an anticompetitive merger plausibly is too small to induce entry, even absent Stiglerian ‘barriers to entry.’ This is illustrated for Cournot and Bertrand models. Significant entry also makes otherwise profitable Bertrand mergers unprofitable, assuming no efficiency gains. Consequently, the entry issue can be collapsed into the efficiency issue: if a presumably profitable merger does not generate significant efficiencies, it cannot be expected to induce entry.     

Are there waves in merger activity after all?

This paper investigates the merger wave hypothesis for the US and the UK employing a Markov regime-switching model. Using quarterly data covering the last 30 years, for the US, we identify the beginning of a merger wave in the mid 1990s but not the much-discussed 1980s merger wave. We argue that the latter finding can be ascribed to the refined methods of inference offered by the Gibbs sampling approach. As opposed to the US, mergers in the UK exhibit multiple waves, with activity surging in the early 1970s and the late 1980s.     

MERGER, EASE OF ENTRY AND ENTRY DETERRENCE IN A DYNAMIC MODEL

We analyze whether ease and speed of entry can mitigate the anti-competititve effects of a merger, in a dynamic model of endogenous merger. In our model, if new firms can enter quickly, it is more likely that merger is motivated by efficiency as opposed to increased market power. Thus, there is less reason to challenge the merger. On the other hand, if entry of new firms becomes less costly, firms may have a stronger incentive to monopolize the industry through horizontal merger. We also show that when the incumbent can engage in entry deterrence activities, anti-merger policy can decrease welfare.     

Changing network pictures: Evidence from mergers and acquisitions

A merger or acquisition may cause dramatic changes in a business network, which in turn affect managerial cognition as well as managerial activities. We use the concepts of ‘network pictures’ and ‘networking’ to illustrate and analyse changes in managerial sense-making and networking activities following a merger or acquisition. The paper focuses on acquiring, acquired or merging parties and those companies with which they have direct customer relationships. Based on three case studies comprising seven acquisitions and one merger, we show that following a merger or acquisition managers may need to adapt their previous network pictures in a radical way; these adaptations are, however, not always realized as shifts in network pictures and adjustments in networking activities by all the managers involved. Whereas the merging parties' network pictures and networking activities are largely driven by their perception of customers' needs and developments, it is not certain that the merger or acquisition is enacted accordingly. The paper contributes to a clearer view on the conceptual interdependence of the constructs of network pictures and networking in multi-actor situations and thus it develops a network perspective on mergers and acquisitions.     

Horizontal mergers, entry, and efficiency defences

In standard models of Cournot competition, it is well-known that if large-scale entry is impossible, then any merger failing to create technological synergies must harm consumers through a higher price level. This paper shows that this is true irrespective of entry conditions: any profitable Cournot merger failing to generate synergies must raise price, even if large-scale entry is possible or if the merger allows the avoidance of fixed cost duplication.     

25 years of European merger control

We study the determinants of common European merger policy over its first 25 years, from 1990 to 2014. Using a novel dataset at the level of the relevant antitrust markets and containing all relevant merger cases notified to the European Commission, we evaluate how consistently arguments related to structural market parameters – dominance, rising concentration, barriers to entry, and foreclosure – were applied over time and across different geographic market definitions. On average, linear probability models overestimate the effects of structural indicators. Using non-parametric machine learning techniques, we find that dominance is positively correlated with competitive concerns, especially in markets with a substantial increase in post-merger concentration and in complex mergers. Yet, its importance decreased following the 2004 merger policy reform. Competitive concerns are also correlated with rising concentration, especially if entry barriers and foreclosure are of concern. The impact of these structural indicators in explaining competitive concerns is independent of the geographic market definition and does not change over time.     

The determinants of merger waves: An international perspective

One of the most conspicuous features of mergers is that they come in waves that are correlated with increases in share prices and price/earnings ratios. We use a natural way to discriminate between pure stock market influences on firm decisions and other influences by examining merger patterns for both listed and unlisted firms. If “real” changes in the economy drive merger waves, as some neoclassical theories of mergers predict, both listed and unlisted firms should experience waves. We find significant differences between listed and unlisted firms as predicted by behavioral theories of merger waves.     

Can first-mover and early-mover advantages be sustained in an industry with low barriers to entry/imitation?

This study examines whether first-mover and early-mover advantages can be sustained in an industry where the barriers to entry are generally low and new product innovations can be easily imitated—namely, the money market mutual fund industry. Using a simultaneous-equation supply-and-demand model of panel data from a variety of money market fund product categories, the study finds that first-movers and early-movers enjoy both a highly sustainable pricing advantage and a moderately sustainable market share advantage. These counterintuitive results are interpreted in terms of the structural characteristics of demand in the industry. Implications of these results for the ongoing debate between the ‘sustainability’ and ‘hypercompetition’ perspectives are discussed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entry Deterrence,Concentration, and Merger Policy

Review of Industrial Organization - In merger enforcement, entry is considered to be a factor that potentially can mitigate otherwise anti-competitive effects of a merger. The current framework for...     

Mimetic entry and bandwagon effect: the rise and decline of international equity joint venture in China

The rise and decline of foreign entry strategies in transition economies is an important yet largely overlooked issue in the literature. This study is a step toward filling this gap by examining how mimetic entry within reference groups and the emergence of a competing strategy affect the bandwagon phenomenon of a dominant strategy in the context of China, where international equity joint ventures (EJVs) used to be a dominant entry strategy among foreign firms in the 1990s. Findings from a sample of 1,123 EJVs formed in China's non-restricted industries from 1990 to 2003 show that the impact of home and host-country industry effects are not symmetric between the EJV rise and decline periods. Cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) as a competing strategy has an important impact during the EJV decline period but not the rise period. The interactive effects between EJV and M&A strategies occur only in the host-country industries. We discuss such results and offer suggestions for future research. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A New Perspective on Entry in Horizontal Merger Analysis

I analyze horizontal mergers in procurement settings in which sellers incur costs to participate. Considering existing sellers’ contest-level entry differs from antitrust authorities’ typical emphasis on new sellers’ market-level entry to counteract a merger’s anticompetitive harm. I show that profitable mergers can increase consumer and total surplus by inducing more and stronger contest-level entry by the merged seller, which echoes common claims from merging parties that their merger is beneficial because it creates a stronger competitor. This finding suggests caution by antitrust authorities: when contest-level entry costs matter, standard models that ignore those costs prescribe blocking procompetitive mergers.

     

Plant creation versus plant acquisition: The entry process in canadian manufacturing

Entry can take different forms - new plant creation versus diversified merger - and can be undertaken by quite different actors - domestic as opposed to foreign firms. This study uses a comprehensive data base on Canadian firms built up from census of manufacturing records to quantify the importance of these different components. Regression analysis is used to examine whether the determinants of entry differ for these components. Entry by merger is shown to be as important as entry by plant creation. Diversified mergers are concentrated in industries where entry barriers are high; plant creation by domestic but not by foreign firms is negatively related to entry barriers.     

Measuring market shares for the analysis of a consummated merger

This paper asks how market shares should be computed for analysis of a consummated merger. It is argued that pre-merger market shares adjusted for the direct effects of the merger should be used. The actual post merger market shares (which are available only for consummated mergers) should not form the basis of an analysis of the competitive effects of the merger because they may reflect confounding factors, such as entry, exit, or a change in capacity of third-party rivals, unrelated to the merger.     

Defining Market Dominance: A Study of Antitrust Decisions on Business Acquisitions in New Zealand

Information from the 207 decisions of the New ZealandCommerce Commission on business acquisitions for1991–96 are used to test how the Commission assessedmarket dominance. Dominance is found to emerge whereboth the market share of the merged entity and theentry barriers were high. A probit regression modelsuggests that there was a 50% probability thatdominance would be found when market share was 75%,in a market where the entry barrier was high. Theapplication of the US merger guidelines to a sub-setof markets finds that the dominance threshold ofanti-competitiveness applied to New Zealand mergerswas very much more lenient than the substantiallessening of competition threshold used in the U.S.     

Anticompetitive Vertical Merger Waves

We develop a model of vertical merger waves and use it to study the optimal merger policy. As a merger wave can result in partial foreclosure, it can be optimal to ban a vertical merger that eliminates the last unintegrated upstream firm. Such a merger is more likely to worsen market performance when the number of downstream firms is large relative to the number of upstream firms, and when upstream contracts are non‐discriminatory, linear and public. On the other hand, the optimal merger policy can be non‐monotonic in the strength of synergies or in the degree of downstream product differentiation.     

Mergers of complements and entry in innovative industries

I study a merger between producers of complement inputs facing potential entry, with investment by the incumbents in deterministic cost reduction and by the entrants in probabilistic innovation, and then competition in prices. The merger solves Cournot complementarity problems in investment and pricing, which is what makes it profitable but also potentially anti-competitive. When the demand is inelastic the merger harms consumers by reducing R&D of the entrants if the incumbents are efficient enough (always when bundling is adopted). Instead, with a demand elastic enough, the merger increases consumer surplus (even with bundling).     

The impact of industry environment on early market entry decisions by B2B managers in the U.S. and Japan

Managers form simplified mental models to cope with market environment uncertainties and to process information. A critical decision is whether to enter a high-potential market early. Large innovation and development investments involved in this decision increase uncertainty. We examine the importance ascribed by U.S. and Japanese managers to competitive forces when making early market entry decisions. We expect that the competitive forces will have different effects on the likelihood of early market entry in the U.S. versus Japan due to cultural and business environment differences, and we thereby develop several propositions. We develop a decision-making exercise simulating early market entry decisions, and tested our propositions with managers in medium to large business-to-business (B2B) firms from both countries. We assessed impacts of the competitive market forces on entry strategy selection via relative weights, repeated-measures analysis of variance, and frequency analysis. Our findings revealed differences in the mental models of Japanese and U.S. managers. Buyer power had a larger effect on the decision to make an early market entry for Japanese managers, while threat of new firm entry had a larger effect for U.S. managers; these findings were consistent with our propositions. We also found several areas of agreement between U.S. and Japanese managers. We conclude with theoretical implications and recommendations to B2B management.