Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: A Time-Series CUSUM Methodology

The ability to predict corporate financial distress can be strengthened using models that account for serial correlation in the data, incorporate information from more than one period and include stationary explanatory variables. This paper develops a stationary financial distress model for AMEX and NYSE manufacturing and retailing firms based on the statistical methodology of time-series Cumulative Sums (CUSUM). The model has the ability to distinguish between changes in the financial variables of a firm that are the result of serial correlation and changes that are the result of permanent shifts in the mean structure of the variables due to financial distress. Tests performed show that the model is robust over time and outperforms similar models based on the popular statistical methods of Linear Discriminant Analysis and Logit.     

金融时间序列指标判别框架：以特质波动率为例

基于拐点集合判别的TBUD方法主要思路是分析拐点集合间的关系,并在高维空间进行划分,从而搭建判别模型,并将分析框架应用在特质波动率等若干指标上,利用实证数据得到结论。应用 TBUD判别框架可以发现,特质波动率等指标无法对拐点集合进行清晰划分,因而并不具有预测能力。     

Impact of legal institutions on IPO survival: A global perspective

Around the world, investors, practitioners, regulators and policy makers seek to understand whether, when and why recently listed stocks, initial public offerings (IPOs) are delisted rather than continue trading (survive). Using data on 7,627 IPOs issued during 2000–2008 across 32 countries, we explore the impact of the legal system on IPO survival. We find that IPOs in countries with better investor protections remain listed for longer. This suggests that better legal systems increase the net benefits companies derive from staying listed. We also provide evidence that better legal systems increase the effectiveness of IPO certification by venture capitalists, underwriters and auditors.     

供应链金融——解决农民贷款难问题新途径探析

近年来,供应链金融作为商业银行的一种新的金融服务,成为商业银行新的重要业务增长点。本文在分析农民贷款难原因的基础上,分析供应链金融及其对解决农民贷款问题的作用,并针对农产品供应链金融的实施进行可行性分析,提出将供应链金融服务引入农村金融服务中,为解决农民融资难问题提供有效途径。     

The institutional determinants of IPO firm prospectus length in a developing context: A research note

This study focuses on the impact of institutional quality on the amount of disclosure in IPO firms listing prospectuses using the six well established World Bank Governance indices, namely corruption control, government effectiveness in promotion of private sector development, political stability and absence from terrorism, regulatory quality, rule of law and lastly democratic voice and accountability. Using a unique hand-collected sample of 165 IPO firms from across Africa from 2000 to 2011 I find evidence that enhanced rule of law and regulatory quality impact on the amount of disclosure by firms, reflected in length of IPO listings prospectuses. In addition I find evidence that founder-led entrepreneurial firms are more likely to disclose more alongside firms in extractive and technology industries that rely on local stock exchanges as a source of external finance. In contrast IPO firms that have significant long term foreign partners or are subsidiaries of foreign Multinational Enterprises are likely to disclose less than other types of firm underscoring their apathy to domestic investors and relative lack of dependence on indigenous stock markets as a viable source of external finance.     

西方IPO抑价理论及对中国IPO研究的启示

西方IPO抑价理论大多在信息不对称、委托代理、信号显示等信息经济学框架下,基于资本市场的有效性假设而提出的,即假定二级市场对股票的定价是合理的,IPO抑价是源于发行定价偏低.中国A股市场IPO抑价率长期高企但逐年下降,对该问题的研究,不能简单套用西方理论,而必须结合我国证券市场环境及IPO发行审核制度,将制度因素作为内生变量来考察.     

The Time Series Properties of Financial Ratios: Lev Revisited

This paper re‐evaluates the time series properties of financial ratios. It presents new empirical analysis which explicitly allows for the possibility that financial ratios can be characterized as non‐linear mean‐reverting processes. Financial ratios are widely employed as explanatory variables in accounting and finance research with applications ranging from the determinants of auditors' compensation to explaining firms' investment decisions. An implicit assumption in this empirical work is that the ratios are stationary so that the postulated models can be estimated by classical regression methods. However, recent empirical work on the time series properties of corporate financial ratios has reported that the level of the majority of ratios is described by non‐stationary, I (1), integrated processes and that the ratio differences are parsimoniously described by random walks. We hypothesize that financial ratios may follow a random walk near their target level, but that the more distant a ratio is from target, the more likely the firm is to take remedial action to bring it back towards target. This behavior will result in a significant size distortion of the conventional stationarity tests and lead to frequent non‐rejection of the null hypothesis of non‐stationarity, a finding which undermines the use of these ratios as reliable conditioning variables for the explanation of firms' decisions.     

发展仓单系统:农村金融制度创新的新思路

作为一种跨期贸易凭证,仓单现已成为很多国家金融体系的一个重要组成部分,它不仅有利于建立现货与期货市场之间的有效联系,而且已成为改进金融体系的一个重要工具.在现阶段的中国,仓单系统有望为农村金融体系注入新的血液,特别是为农户或乡镇企业解决抵押品不足的问题提供方便.而原国有粮食系统改进成专业化仓储机构,使其可望在未来的仓单系统中充当仓储运营商的角色.     

Bayesian Statistical Computations of Nonlinear Financial Time Series Models: A Survey with Illustrations

A survey of Bayesian statistical computations of quadratureformula, Laplace approximation, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms ispresentedand their applications to nonlinear financial time series models arediscussed.     

A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System

This paper extends the model proposed by Goodhart, Sunirand, and Tsomocos (2004, 2005, 2006) to an infinite horizon setting. Thus, we are able to assess how the model conforms with the time series data of the UK banking system. We conclude that, since the model performs satisfactorily, it can be readily used to assess financial fragility given its flexibility, computability, and the presence of multiple contagion channels and heterogeneous banks and investors. JEL Classification Numbers C68, E4, E5, G11, G21 We are grateful to seminar participants at the Bank of England, European Central Bank, University of Oxford, University of Pireaus, 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London and especially an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions     

Students' Perceptions of a Scaffolded Approach to Learning Financial Planning: An Empirical Study

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC), one understandable area of scrutiny and pressure for reform is the educational background and professionalism of personal financial advisers. This Australian study reports on a three-year investigation into students' perceptions of ‘scaffolded’ instruction in financial planning. The scaffolded approach was used to assist learning in areas that previously had caused difficulty. The results indicate that students perceived the scaffolded tasks to be valuable learning experiences which increased their appreciation of the skills and knowledge required by financial advisers. Although students may bring different frames of reference to their learning, and the positiveness of perceived value of scaffolded instruction may vary between different demographic groupings, scaffolding techniques are shown to provide strong potential to assist university educators and their students in financial planning.     

Pricing Options under Stochastic Interest Rates: A New Approach

We will generalize the Black-Scholes option pricing formula by incorporating stochastic interest rates. Although the existing literature has obtained some formulae for stock options under stochastic interest rates, the closed-form solutions have been known only under the Gaussian (Merton type) interest rate processes. We will show that an explicit solution, which is an extended Black-Scholes formula under stochastic interest rates in certain asymptotic sense, can be obtained by extending the asymptotic expansion approach when the interest rate volatility is small. This method, called the small-disturbance asymptotics for Itô processes, has recently been developed by Kunitomo and Takahashi (1995, 1998) and Takahashi (1997). We found that the extended Black-Scholes formula is decomposed into the original Black-Scholes formula under the deterministic interest rates and the adjustment term driven by the volatility of interest rates. We will illustrate the numerical accuracy of our new formula by using the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model for the interest rates.     

The Impact of IFRS 16 on Key Financial Ratios: A New Methodological Approach

In January 2016, the International Accounting Standards Board issued a new standard for lease accounting: International Financial Reporting Starndard (IFRS) 16. IFRS 16 will lead to the capitalisation of the majority of current operating leases by lessees. We analyse the impact of the new accounting model on entity’s key financial, contributing to research by making significant changes in the Imhoff et al. [(1991). Operating leases: Impact of constructive capitalization. Accounting Horizons, 5(1), 51–63. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&;db=buh&;AN=9604010111&;site=ehost-live; (1997). Operating leases: Income effects of constructive capitalization. Accounting Horizons, 11(2), 12–32. Retrieved from http://0-search.proquest.com.fama.us.es/docview/208896121?accountid=14744] methodology used by previous authors. We change how the lease term is estimated (more aligned with the final approved standard), and how the discount rate is obtained. Furthermore, we use a more comprehensive sample (646 quoted European companies). In line with previous research we find important systematic impacts on key balance sheet financial ratios (mainly leverage ratios), on a magnitude that depends on the operating lease intensity of the sector in which the entity operates. Our estimated impact is generally higher than that obtained in previous studies. The most affected sectors are retail, hotels and transportation. We do not find a consistent result with regard to the effect on profitability ratios.     

Markups and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles: A Reappraisal

Gali, Gertler, and Lopez‐Salido (2007) recently show quantitatively that fluctuations in the efficiency of resource allocation do not generate sizable welfare costs. In their economy, which is distorted by monopolistic competition in the steady state, we show that they underestimate the welfare cost of these fluctuations by ignoring the negative effect of aggregate volatility on average consumption and leisure. As monopolistic suppliers, both firms and workers aim to preserve their expected markups; the interaction between aggregate fluctuations and price‐setting behavior results in average consumption and employment levels that are lower than their counterparts in the flexible‐price economy. This level effect increases the efficiency cost of business cycles. It is all the more sizable with the degree of inefficiency in the steady state, lower labor–supply elasticities, and when prices instead of wages are rigid.     

A Bayesian Approach to the Construction and Comparison of Alternative House Price Indices

Several repeat-sales models have been advanced over the years for estimating real estate price indices. This article proposes a general model which incorporates earlier works as special cases and compares the alternative repeat-sales models using posterior odds ratios as criteria. While the existing literature estimates the real estate indices from the sampling point of view, in this article indices are constructed and then compared using a Bayesian approach. In general, the two-error term models outperform the one-error models. The model with a nontemporal component proposed by Goetzmann and Spiegel is found to be superior in three out of four cities. There is a significant discrepancy among the returns and indices obtained from different models.     

Money Laundering as a Crime in the Financial Sector: A New Approach to Quantitative Assessment,with an Application to Italy

This study provides an answer to the question of how much cash deposited via a financial institution can be traced back to criminal activities, by developing a new approach to measure money laundering and proposing an application to Italy. We define a model of cash in‐flows on current accounts considering, besides “dirty money” to be laundered, also the legal motivations to deposit cash and the role of the shadow economy. We find that the average amount of cash laundered in Italy is around 6% of GDP. These findings are coherent with estimates of the nonobserved economy obtained in previous studies.     

Relative Performance Evaluation of Mutual Funds: A Non-Parametric Approach

We propose an alternative mutual fund performance index which addresses the benchmark problem and controls for economies of scale in managing mutual funds. We advance a new concept of 'return-cost' efficiency as another important element in evaluating portfolio management, in addition to the mean-variance efficiency concept. Our index based on a non-parametric estimation is shown to be similar to the Sharpe index with multiple slopes (or factors). We have shown that all fund categories, except income funds, have similar average efficiency scores after controlling for economies of scale. Most funds operate in increasing returns to scale and seem to be successful in holding mean-variance efficient portfolios, but unsuccessful in allocating transaction costs efficiently, evidenced by excessive turnovers and loads.     

循环经济范式下的新型工业化道路探析

面临实现工业化的历史任务,发展循环经济是解决当前我国资源和环境约束矛盾、实现可持续发展的必由之路。要发展循环经济,继续走传统的工业化道路是行不通的。必须在科学发展观的指导下,从微观的生产方式、中观的产业结构及宏观的体制政策三个层面寻求创新,走符合循环经济范式要求的新型工业化道路。     

货币流通速度的计算方法探讨

文章澄清了货币数量方程式MV=PY中M的真正含义,指出运用公式V=PY/M计算货币流通速度可能存在的问题。在强制结汇制等假设条件下,推导出中国货币流通速度的计算公式。并利用来自中国1991年至2006年的宏观经济数据进行了两公式的计算和比较。     

营业税改征增值税的税率评估——基于可计算一般均衡模型的研究

营业税改征增值税是完善我国税制的一个重要举措,确定各个产业部门改征增值税后的税率是其中一个关键的环节。运用可计算一般均衡模型可以评估营业税改征增值税之后不同税率的选择对宏观经济和产业结构的影响。政策模拟的结果显示,目前正在实施的营业税改征增值税的试点方案权衡了对财政收入和经济增长以及经济结构的影响,是对经济运行影响较小的稳健选择。