双系统决策的实验证明与决策优化

双系统决策是建立在人们的情感、理念和经验基础上的思维活动,即系统1和系统2两个子系统代表了直觉和理性两种具有不同认知功能的思维模式.本文利用实验经济学的方法分别探究了系统1和系统2判断决策时的不同特点,以及在两个系统的相互影响下对人们决策的影响.针对双系统决策的特点,围绕公共物品实验对双系统如何优化决策提出了建议.最后针对系统1和系统2可以相互影响决策行为的猜想,介绍了山东大学经济研究院所做的一个实验研究.     

External information acquisition for decision making in small businesses

Markets are broadening and global trends have created a new competitive landscape for companies, moving along the information era. The proper acquisition and information management of external information may lead companies to acquire better knowledge, productivity, and, in general, better performance. This organizational behavior of information acquisition, in SMEs, has its own characteristics that must be analyzed to foster the designing and development of information technologies and organizational strategies.     

浅谈粗糙集理论与知识管理决策

自20世纪70年代Z.Pawlak提出粗糙集理论以来,粗糙集理论已在机器学习、知识获取、决策分析(决策表属性约简)、过程控制等许多领域得到了广泛的应用。本文从探讨如何提高知识管理决策水平的角度,对粗糙集理论应用于知识管理决策的可行性进行了分析。     

Consumer decision making process in shopping for halal food in Malaysia

This paper reports on the results obtained from quantitative and qualitative data on consumer decision making process in shopping for halal food. A total of 213 questionnaires were returned by respondents, confirming that our respondents who are concerning about the ＂halal＂ logo are also concerning about the ingredients used. The study also confirms that there is a significant relationship between respondents＇religion and their perceptions towards halal logo and ingredients. While the qualitative data from a focus group interview on how Muslim consumers shop for halal food shows that there is a need for assurance that food to be purchased is halal, implying the presence of risk and uncertainty when making purchase considerations. Using the audit risk framework in conventional assurance services, the study finds that assurance is sought in relation to the halalness of business premise, halalness of product, and assurance from environmental elements such as the halal logo displayed.     

Sequential auditor decision making: Information search and evidence evaluation*

Abstract. This paper presents the results of an experiment that examined five hypotheses related to the information search and evidence evaluation that takes place as part of an auditor's sequential decision process. The results indicate the following. (1) When given a choice, auditors examined the most reliable type of evidence. (2) Auditors who stopped at intermediate stages in the sequential task had, on average, more extreme assessments of the outcome, although there were differential effects depending on whether the auditors based their decisions on positive or negative evidence. (3) Changes in the direction of the auditor's judgments were consistent with the signal in the audit evidence. (4) Negative evidence, in general, led to greater judgment revisions than positive evidence, and the most reliable negative evidence led to the greatest revisions. (5) Auditors searched for corroborating evidence, but their evaluation of that evidence did not impact the assessment of evidence received earlier in the sequential task. Résumé. Les auteurs présentent les résultats d'une expérience portant sur l'analyse de cinq hypothèses reliées à la recherche d'information et à l'évaluation de l'information probante qui s'inscrivent dans le processus de décision séquentiel du vérificateur. Les résultats obtenus indiquent ce qui suit: 1) lorsqu'ils ont le choix, les vérificateurs examinent l'information probante la plus fiable, 2) les vérificateurs qui s'arrêtent à des étapes intermédiaires de la tâche séquentielle produisent, en moyenne, des évaluations plus extrêmes des résultats, bien que l'on observe des incidences marginales selon que les vérificateurs ont fondé leurs décisions sur des informations probantes expresses ou tacites, 3) les modifications dans l'orientation des jugements posés par le verificateur sont conformes aux indications livrées par l'information probante, 4) l'information probante tacite mène, en général, à une révision plus importante des jugements que l'information expresse, et l'information tacite la plus fiable mène à la révision la plus approfondie, et 5) les vérificateurs cherchent à obtenir des preuves de corroboration mais leur évaluation de cette information probante n'a pas d'incidence sur lévaluation de l'information probante obtenue aux étapes antérieures de la tâche séquentielle.     

The implications of risk sensitive decision making for macroeconomic planning in The Netherlands

Summary Policy optimisation under certainty equivalence is an attractive method of decision making in complex dynamic systems, but it does not take into account the uncertainty about macroeconomic projections. By relaxing the assumption that only expectations matter, this article develops risk sensitive decisions. They are applied to the information given by the last medium term plan of the Central Planning Bureau. Inspection of past forecasting errors could have told the planners that unemployment would be more persistent than inflation or the current account deficit. Risk sensitive policies imply smaller wage cuts and, if policy makers are concerned with the growth of real disposable income, other instruments are also used less vigorously.Financial support from the Netherlands Organisation for the Advancement of Pure Research (ZWO) is gratefully acknowledged. I am indebted to the anonymous referees, and I also thank Professors J.C. Siebrand and A.J. Hughes Hallett for their helpful comments.     

Familiarity and decision making: The unclear role of noise in accept/reject decisions

A decision maker (DM) observes a noisy signal of the quality of a project before deciding to accept or reject the project. We show (i) as the amount of noise increases, the minimum signal required for acceptance may either increase or decrease, and may be nonmonotonic. (ii) Consequently, the average quality of accepted projects may either increase or decrease in the amount of noise. (iii) The effect of increased noise on decisions depends in a straightforward way on which kind of mistake leaves the DM worse off, a rejection of a good project or an acceptance of a bad project.     

An economic analysis of family size decision making with reference to the developing areas of South Africa

A neoclassical utility framework is used to analyze links between decisions about family size and socioeconomic variables using data for 175 women in KwaZulu, South Africa. The demand curve for children is specified within a simultaneous model of family decision-making. "Child education, women's opportunity cost of time and formal market participation were negatively related to fertility, reflecting substitution from numbers of children (time intensive) to fewer, more educated children (less time intensive) as opportunity costs rise. Child labour was positively related to fertility. Strategies to reduce population growth rates should therefore include improvements in women's education and employment opportunities to raise their time costs, and time-saving devices to reduce demand for child labour."     

Institutional framework of forecasting and decision making in the innovation sector (by example of space activities)

This paper considers the particular issues associated with expert assessment in the process of forecasting and decision making in the innovation sector. The authors introduce the concept of a “forum,” which they understand as a specific institution designed to gain competent expert knowledge while discussing and making publicly relevant managerial decisions. The forum’s tasks are discussed in the context of the space activities in Russia. The authors also formulate the main requirements for the organization of the forum and expert discussion in the process of prognostication and decision making.     

Resources,household decision making and organisation of labour in food production among small-scale farmers in southern Zambia

This article examines the production context of small-scale farm households in the Choma District in southern Zambia. Factors associated with differential access to production assets among the households are analysed. In addition to this, patterns of household decision making and the social organisation of labour in agricultural production are documented. The study findings show that farm size, a proxy for wealth or social status, accounted for significant differences in the level of ownership and access to production assets. The study also highlights the importance of labour and livestock in the production strategies of small-scale farmers. The data from this study on decision making and the social organisation of labour confirm the importance of gender roles in agricultural production.     

Participation of disadvantaged communities in project planning and decision‐making: A case‐study of Hout Bay

Opportunities for public involvement in planning and decision‐making, especially among disadvantaged groups, are extremely limited in South Africa. This is due to a highly centralised, deeply authoritarian and secretive system of government, and the élitist approach of professionals to planning. This article examines the challenges facing professionals and authorities seeking to involve disadvantaged communities in project planning. An assessment of the public participation process in a project for resettling informal settlers in the residential area of Hout Bay affords some ideas for surmounting obstacles to effective participation.     

Wage formation in the context of collective bargaining

Summary The article analyzes wage developments resulting from collective bargaining between one union representing all employees and one employers' organization representing all employers. The context is an economy consisting of two markets: a labour market and a goods market. An analysis has been made of the costs and benefits for both parties in case of a strike. The strength of both parties has been analyzed, firstly under the assumption of perfect information and thereafter under the assumption of imperfect information. Important determinants of wage increases appear to be the strike costs, the horizon, the bargaining skills and the self confidence of both parties and the wage elasticity of the demand for labour.I acknowledge the helpful comments of Professors Muysken, Kuipers and Pen.     

Leadership and the aggregation of international collective action

Political entrepreneurs, or leaders, play an important rolein overcoming under-provision and coordination problems inherentin international public goods. Recent examples include the MontrealProtocol on ozone depletion and NATO peacekeeping. We demonstratethat the Prisoner's Dilemma need not be a fait accompli of internationalcollective action, owing to the various means for aggregatingcontributions (summation, best shot, better shot, weakest linkand weaker link). Using evolutionary game theory, we examine'leading by example', whereby a leader unilaterally providesan intermediate contribution, and matching behavior there beyond.It is shown to be a noncooperative means for achieving cooperativeprovision.     

集体性人员流失的风险防范与化解

一、问题提出如果说,个别人员的离职、跳槽。企业老总,人力资源管理部门还可以从心理上有所准备,思想上有所防备,方法上有所应对的话。那么,以职业经理人为牵头,员工有计划、有规模的集体流动,团队跳槽则会让他们措手不及,叫苦不迭,痛苦不已。集体性人员流失对企业破坏力是巨大     

创新服务型盈利模式:中国券商盈利模式的战略选择

2002年以前,得益于行业的垄断性和高成长性,我国券商一直保持着20%以上的较高利润率。但到了2002年,券商开始出现整体亏损,2003年,在市场持续走低的背景下,券商行业性亏损势头并未得到有效遏制。表面上看,券商亏损的原因主要在于市场低迷,然而根源却是传统的单一盈利模式已对券