德阳市经济增长与产业结构的多变量协整关系研究

基于德阳市1983—2012年的GDP和三大产业产值的数据,对德阳市经济增长与产业结构变动之间的相互关系进行实证分析。结果表明,四个变量存在长期均衡关系,Granger因果关系检验表明第二产业和第三产业间存在双向Granger因果关系。     

基于误差修正模型的能源消费与经济增长关系研究

基于误差修正模型理论,从变量的平稳性检验、变量间的因果关系检验、变量间的协整检验和误差修正模型角度,利用我国1978～2009年能源消费总量和国民生产总值数据进行实证研究,建立了能源消费与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系模型和误差修正模型;通过格兰杰因果性检验,表明能源消费与经济增长之间存在单项因果关系。数量关系模型的建立,为合理处理二者之间的关系提供了数理依据。     

服务贸易与我国经济增长关系的实证分析

基于我国1985—2004年的的统计数据，运用协整检验、向量误差修正模型（VECM）、Granger因果关系检验等方法，对我国GDP、服务贸易进出口之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明：长期中，我国经济增长与服务贸易进出口之间存在着唯一的均衡关系，同时只有服务贸易出口对经济增长具有显著的促进作用，而服务贸易进口则对其有一定的抑制效应；短期中，均衡关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较快，同时短期内服务贸易进出口均对我国经济增长具有显著促进效应。最后，我国的经济增长与服务贸易进出口之间只存在着单向的因果关系。     

中国能源消费、经济增长间协整关系和因果关系的实证研究——以电力行业为例

本文运用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验两种日益流行的计量经济分析技术,实证研究了我国电力消费与经济增长之间的协整关系和因果关系。通过协整分析我们建立了电力消费和GDP之间的协整关系和误差修正模型,分别描述电力消费与经济增长间的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系;Granger因果性检验表明,电力消费与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。     

FDI与经济增长效应的实证分析——以河南省为例

本文根据河南省1985～2010年外商直接投资(FDI)和国内生产总值(GDP)的数据,综合运用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验等一系列计量经济手段,分析河南省外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系.研究表明,河南省外商直接投资与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,FDI每增加1％,GDP就增加0.343％;当FDI短期波动偏离长期均衡时,经济系统将以0.087的调整力度将短期非均衡状态拉回到长期均衡状态;Granger因果关系检验表明,在10％的显著水平下,FDI对GDP具有单向的正向因果关系.     

我国财政支出对职工收入影响的实证研究

文章对财政支出与职工收入之间的关系进行了实证研究,分析了财政支出对职工收入增长的影响。通过协整关系检验得出财政支出与职工平均工资存在长期均衡关系,并建立了误差修正模型。根据模型及变量间因果关系,为落实财政政策提高职工工资水平提出了一些建议。     

基于MAR模型的对云南省消费增长与经济增长关系研究

随着经济的不断发展，云南省的消费需求也在不断增长，但消费需求和经济增长之间是否存在某种长期均衡关系，这种经济关系的分析可以通过协整理论来完成。文章根据云南改革开放30年来的年度经济数据，通过利用VAR模型和协整理论对云南省消费和经济之间的关系进行Granger因果关系检验，分析了居民消费、政府消费与经济增长之间是否存在协整关系；协整存在的情况下，短期与长期各变量之间是否存在因果关系，并用脉冲响应函数图与方差分解表进行了更进一步的分析。     

外商直接投资与经济增长的协整分析——基于贵州省数据的实证研究

针对外商直接投资促进经济增长的假设,我们根据1987-2006年贵州省GDP、FDI以及进出口的统计数据,建立向量误差修正模型,运用PP检验、协整及Granger因果关系检验分析外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系,研究结果表明,贵州省的外商直接投资、国际贸易与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且经济增长是出口、进口增长的Granger因,而经济增长与外商直接投资之间存在双向因果关系。     

出版物种类与经济增长关系的实证分析——以上海市为例

用时间序列动态均衡关系分析方法,对上海市1978-2007年出版物种类与经济增长之间的关系进行研究,建立了协整方程和误差修正模型,进行了格兰杰因果关系检验,得出的主要结论是：上海市经济增长和出版物种类之间存在长期的协整关系,出版物种类每增加1个百分点,GDP增加0．773398个百分点：发现二者呈长期动态均衡关系,但目前还没有表现出直接的因果关系。     

我国FDI、经济增长与国内投资结构关系的实证研究--基于协整方法(1979～2004)

本文利用协整方法，选取实际外商直接投资、GDP、国内投资、出口、进口与人民币对美元的真实汇率多个宏观经济变量进行建模，发现了这些变量之间存在的长期均衡关系。在此基础上进行了VECM冲击反应分析，考察了变量问的动态作用机制。最后利用Granger因果关系检验从另一个角度验证了上述模型得出的结论。     

企业诚信意识与思想政治工作调研及对策思考

在对福建省企业诚信意识与思想政治工作调研的基础上,提出构建可操作的“三层次四模块”诚信意识培育新模式,推进人本化管理理念的渗透,加强人文关怀和心理疏导,以实现思想政治工作诚信意识培育的目标。     

中国经济的内外均衡与财税改革

我国经常项目持续的大规模顺差,给国民经济的健康发展带来一系列的不利影响。在前人研究的基础上,通过对各种影响因素进行分类拆解,本文试图从理论和实证角度说明长期的储蓄-消费失衡是造成我国贸易顺差的一个重要原因,而其背后的根本原因是由于企业可支配收入相对于劳动者报酬不断提高带来的收入结构和储蓄结构失衡。我国当前企业未分配收入大幅增长的原因可以归结为企业利润率"虚高"和国企"不分红"问题。只有从体制上解决这个问题,才能使储蓄降低到适当的水平,通过拉动内需消除我国过大的贸易顺差,从根本上解决内外经济比例失衡问题。     

森林资源规划设计调查总结与反思

森林资源规划设计调查是为国家、地区及森林经营单位制定林业方针政策,编制林业区划、规划、计划,指导林业生产而提供基础资源数据,为实现森林资源合理经营、科学管理、永续利用、持续发展,充分发挥森林生态效益、经济效益、社会效益服务。森林资源调查的任务是全面查清森林资源数量、质量变化及其消长变化状况、规律,进行综合分析和评价,准确提供所需有关森林资源调查成果资料。基于森林资源二类调查的重要性和今后调查工作顺利开展的需要,调查之后的总结与反思尤为重要。     

Homogeneity and Heterogeneity Within and Across Boundaries and Shorelines: Ensemble of Darwin's Finches and Human Transaction Types

Synopsis: In the most famous example of the biological process of adaptive radiation, two forces explain the fourteen distinct species of Darwin's finches on the Galápagos and Cocos Islands: First, populations adapt to their respective distinct ecological environments. Second, previously separated populations come in contact and may adapt to mitigate inter-species competition. The result is a complex pattern of homogeneity and heterogeneity among the birds, both on a single island and across islands. This pattern reflects the finches' adaptations both to the distinct ecological conditions created by the visible shorelines that separate the islands' niches and to the finches' own less-visible cultural and societal shorelines. The New Institutional Economics highlights the fact that human institutional infrastructures also exhibit complex homogeneities and heterogeneities, as we adapt those infrastructures to accomplish the tasks at hand in distinct geographic and societal contexts. Mixes of both state enforcement and self-enforcement, through inter-temporal, inter-issue, and inter-actor linkages, provide support and enforcement for transactions; and those mixes differ across transactions and across states. When transactions occur across state or cultural shorelines, institutional infrastructures must be flexible enough to accommodate those differences, without allowing the differences to become disguised protectionism or barriers to competition. These issues contribute to many of the regulatory disputes associated with ‘globalization’. We briefly consider two concrete recent examples: (1) the European Union–United States ‘Safe Harbor’ Agreement that regulates firms' policies toward Internet-data privacy; and (2) international trade policy negotiations over regulation of ‘geographical indications’ (for example, Champagne or Roquefort) as means of assuring product quality for processed foods. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Classical and Neoclassical harmonies and dissonances

Abstract

Proofs are given that only singularly can real 1750 – 2007 competitive price ratios be ‘natural', in the sense of being invariant under changes in demand tastes. Proofs are given that both 1750 – 1870 discrete technologies or 1890 – 2007 continuum technologies, with convexity properties sufficient for arbitrage-proof supply-demand equilibria, will be ‘intertemporally Pareto optimal', immune to leaving any deadweight (inefficient) losses on the table. Sraffa (1960), ignoring the vast post-1945 linear and non-linear programming mathematical literature of Danzig, Kuhn-Tucker-Bellman, von Neumann, Ramsey literature does not quite arrive at attainable distribution solutions. Where it tolerates increasing or decreasing returns to scale, there can be no competitive equilibria. When its matrix equations do obey first-degree-homogeneous functions, the book's stress on Basics or non-Basics is an irrelevancy leading to bizarre novel interpretations of Ricardo.

Old age overtakes us all. Alas, Sraffs's proposed critique of twentieth century political economy we will never be able to know.     

Sen and Commons on Markets and Freedom

Amartya Sen's enlarged conception of freedom has augmented the scope of economic analysis but it also has had the surprising effect of being more supportive of the free market than conventional welfare economics. It is argued here that a comparison of Sen's position with that of the American institutionalist, J R Commons, highlights some problems with Sen's approach and points to possible ways in which they might be addressed.     

Globalization and taxation: Theory and evidence

We construct a theoretical model to capture the compensation and efficiency effects of globalization in a set up where the redistributive tax rate is chosen by the median voter. The model predicts that the two alternative modes of globalization- trade liberalization and financial openness- could potentially have different effects on taxation. We then provide some empirical evidence on the relationship between taxation and the alternative modes of globalization using a large cross-country panel data set. On average, globalization is associated with lower taxation but there is some evidence that in countries with high capital-labor ratio, globalization is associated with increased taxation. We make a distinction between de jure and de facto measures of globalization and find a strong negative relationship between taxation and de jure measures of globalization. The results for de facto measures of globalization are mixed.     

Finance and inequality: Channels and evidence

We provide a framework to interpret the recent literature on financial development and inequality. In many developing countries, access to funding and financial services by firms and households is still very skewed. Recent evidence suggests that poor access does not only reflect economic constraints but also barriers erected by insiders. Inequality affects the distribution of political influence, so financial regulation often is easily captured by established interests in unequal countries. Captured reforms deepen rather than broaden access, as small elites obtain most of the benefits while risks are socialized. Financial liberalization motivated to increase access may in practice increase fragility and inequality, and lead to political backlash against reforms. Thus financial reforms may succeed only if matched by a buildup in oversight institutions. Journal of Comparative Economics 35 (4) (2007) 748–773.     

美国、日本产业政策:比较分析与启示

现阶段,在吸取美国、日本经验的基础上,我国产业结构调整应主要依靠市场机制进行调节,同时辅之以宏观政策,尽快使我国的产业结构优化,即产业结构的合理化、高级化。     

The Performance of Public and Private Enterprise under Conditions of Active and Passive Ownership and Competition and Monopoly

Privatisation is driven by the belief that public ownership is cost inefficient, in particular under monopoly. However, some theoretical and empirical studies have questioned whether privatisation will necessarily lead to efficiency gains. This paper focuses on the impact of ownership when owners can be either active or passive. Active owners decide on output, whereas passive owners delegate this decision to a risk-averse manager. It turns out that managerial slack as reflected in the marginal costs will actually be the same or higher in a private monopoly than under public ownership. The impact of entry is theoretically ambiguous, but an increased number of firms in an oligopoly may lead to lower efficiency.