EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE MINIMUM WAGE: PANEL DATA EVIDENCE FROM CANADIAN PROVINCES

Recent U.S. studies offer conflicting evidence on minimum wage impacts. This paper studies the effects of 185 amendments to minimum wage on employment rates using panel data across Canadian provinces from 1981 to 2011. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply a 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for both male and female teens. We also find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with lower employment of prime‐aged immigrants. Our results are robust to a wide array of IV and the use of controls for spatial heterogeneity. (JEL J30, J71, J23)     

THE IMPACT OF THE MINIMUM WAGE ON FEMALE EMPLOYMENT IN JAPAN

This article examines the impact of the minimum wage on employment, focusing on women in their 20s and 30s, who are known to be typical low‐wage workers in Japan. The results, based on a panel estimation, suggest that the minimum wage has a measurable impact on employment; the workers whose current wage is below the revised minimum wage are about 20–30 percentage points less likely to be employed in the following year than comparable low‐wage workers who are not affected by the revision of the minimum wage. The estimation results are sensitive to the choice of the control group. (JEL J23, J38, J88)     

MINIMUM WAGE EFFECTS ON PERMANENT VERSUS TEMPORARY MINIMUM WAGE EMPLOYMENT

We estimate the effect of minimum wages on employment using the Master Files of the Canadian Labour Force Survey over the recent period 1997–2008. Particular attention is paid to the differences between permanent and temporary minimum wage workers—an important distinction not made in the existing literature. Our estimates for permanent and temporary minimum wage workers combined are at the lower end of estimates based on Canadian studies estimated over earlier time periods, suggesting that the adverse employment effects are declining over time for reasons discussed. Importantly, the adverse employment effects are substantially larger for permanent compared to temporary minimum wage workers; in fact they fall almost exclusively on permanent minimum wage workers. (JEL J30)     

WHEN IS A GOOD TIME TO RAISE THE MINIMUM WAGE?

I analyze changes in the target efficiency of the federal minimum wage over the past 25 years. Using static simulation methods I find that minimum wage target efficiency is currently close to its 25‐year peak—of the total monetary benefits generated by a 12% increase in the federal minimum wage, 16.8% would flow to workers in poverty. This exceeds the least target efficient year over this period by 4.7 percentage points and is only 0.6 percentage points below the peak. Furthermore, I find a very strong positive relationship between minimum wage target efficiency and the real federal minimum wage. The implication is that, from an efficiency standpoint, a good time to raise the minimum wage is when it is already high. This discovery raises the possibility that the minimum wage increases the employment of low‐skilled poor individuals relative to the employment of low‐skilled non‐poor individuals. Moreover, this discovery may bolster the rationale for an indexed minimum wage whereby it is prevented from falling to less efficient levels. (JEL J21, J31, J38)     

A NOTE ON THE NONLINEAR EFFECT OF MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES

We use a labor search model with worker experience to assess the effects of minimum wage increases. Minimum wages can have nonlinear effects on unemployment as higher minimum wages become binding for larger portions of the underlying productivity distribution. The model is used to assess the increases proposed by the Obama Administration from $7.25 an hour to $9.00 and then to $10.10 per hour. We find that minimum wage increases have large effects on youth unemployment. These large effects cast doubt on using past empirical estimates of the effects of minimum wages that do not account for potential nonlinearities. (JEL E24, J08, J24, J64)     

The Effects of Germany's Statutory Minimum Wage on Employment and Welfare Dependency

In January 2015, Germany introduced a federal, statutory minimum wage of 8.50 € per hour. This study evaluates the effects of this policy on regular and marginal employment and on welfare dependency. Based on the county‐level administrative data, this study uses the difference‐in‐differences technique, exploiting regional variation in the bite of the minimum wage, i.e., the county‐specific share of employees paid less than 8.50 € before the introduction of the minimum wage. The minimum wage had a considerable negative effect on marginal employment. There is also some indication that regular employment was slightly reduced. Concerning welfare dependency, the minimum wage reduced the number of working welfare recipients, with some indication that about one half of them left welfare receipt due to the minimum wage.     

MINIMUM WAGES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

This study is the first to explore the relationship between minimum wage increases and state gross domestic product (GDP). Using data drawn from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) from 1979 to 2012, I find no evidence that minimum wage increases were associated with changes in overall state GDP. However, this null finding masks substantial heterogeneity in the productivity effects of minimum wages across industries and over the business cycle. Difference‐in‐difference‐in‐difference estimates suggest that a 10% increase in the minimum wage is associated with a short‐run 1% to 2% decline in state GDP generated by lower‐skilled industries relative to more highly skilled industries. This differential appears larger during troughs as compared to that during peaks of the state business cycle. (JEL J3, J4, L5)     

HOW DO MINIMUM WAGE ADJUSTMENTS AFFECT WAGES IN CHINA: EVIDENCE BASED ON ADMINISTRATIVE PERSONAL INCOME TAX DATA

By using unique administrative personal income tax data covering the population of a middle‐sized Chinese city from 2009 to 2013, we explore how minimum wage adjustments affect wages of low‐wage workers. The empirical evidence documented in this paper suggests a unique pattern of minimum wage regulation: while it permits wages to stay below the prevailing minimum wage threshold temporarily, it does encourage a higher growth rate for wages below the threshold. Overall, such a pattern might help lessen any downward pressures on employment, while ensuring that low‐wage earners gradually get better off over time. (JEL J3, J6, P5)     

Minimum wage impacts on youth employment transitions, 1993–1999

Abstract.  The longitudinal nature of the Master File of the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for the period 1993–9, enables comparing transitions from employment to non‐employment for individuals affected by minimum wage changes with appropriate comparison groups not affected by minimum wages. This is based on the large number (24) of minimum wage changes that have occurred across the different provincial jurisdictions in Canada over the 1990s. The results indicate that the minimum wage increases have increased the transition from employment to non‐employment of employed low‐wage youths, who are at‐risk of being affected by a minimum wage increase, by around 6 percentage points (ranging from 4 to 8 percentage points). These disemployment effects in turn imply 'minimum wage' elasticities of about −0.4 (ranging from −0.3 to −0.5).     

Full wages,part-time employment and the minimum wage

The economic effects of the minimum wage have become increasingly ambiguous. Historically, economists have asserted that increases in the minimum wage result in increases in unemployment. This relationship has been challenged recently by Card and Krueger, Katz and Krueger, and Card. These authors have provided empirical evidence that seems to indicate that there is no relationship between various economic variables (such as level of employment, and product price, among others) and the minimum wage. In addition, these authors have not provided a cogent presentation of the effects of the minimum wage on part-time employment. This study examines, from a theoretical standpoint, the effects of the minimum wage on employment. Furthermore, we emphasize the distinction between money wages and full wages; and the role that part-time employmentplays in the analysis. After incorporating these factors into a theoretical presentation, we provide empirical evidence by way of an OLS regression. We conclude that firms respond to increases in the minimum wage by altering the level of part-time employment. By doing this, firms are able to absorb the minimum wage increase because part timers receive fewer fringe benefits.     

Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany

Income inequality has been a major concern of economic policy makers for several years. Can minimum wages help to mitigate inequality? In 2015, the German government introduced a nationwide statutory minimum wage to reduce income inequality by improving the labour income of low-wage employees. However, the employment effects of wage increases depend on time and region specific conditions and, hence, they cannot be known in advance. Because negative employment effects may offset the income gains for low-wage employees, it is important to evaluate minimum-wage policies empirically. We estimate the employment effects of the German minimum-wage introduction using panel regressions on the state-industry-level. We find a robust negative effect of the minimum wage on marginal and a robust positive effect on regular employment. In terms of the number of jobs, our results imply a negative overall effect. Hence, low-wage employees who are still employed are better off at the expense of those who have lost their jobs due to the minimum wage.     

Effects of Local,State, and Federal Minimum Wage on Employment Growth among Teenagers in the Restaurant Industry

Over the last 20 years, local municipalities have been implementing minimum wage ordinances at an accelerated rate. These local changes, along with state and federal minimum wage increases, are included in the examination of the impact of minimum wage hikes on employment growth of teenagers in the food services and drinking places subsector. While most minimum wage research focuses on employment levels, recent contributions highlight the importance of analyzing employment growth. Following this trend, this study focuses on teenagers within the restaurant industry to test for the impact of minimum wages on inexperienced workers. Using a distributed-lag model, the results show that an increase in a minimum wage reduces employment growth for teenagers within this subsector. The effects of minimum wages within this demographic were most strongly felt in the first three years following an increase in minimum wage. Specifically, the results show that a 10% increase in the minimum wage decreases the employment growth rate by approximately 2.27% over a period of three years.

     

Are Minimum Wages to Blame for Informality in the Labour Market?

The paper estimates the impact of the minimum wage on formal and informal employment in a developing country combining the use of aggregate time series data with modern time-series methods. The analysis is carried out for the case of Brazil over the period 1982–2002. The hypothesis under investigation is that minimum wage rises price workers out of the formal labour market and into the informal sector. The modelling strategy involves the estimation of the long-run structure as well as the short-term dynamics of employment equations in which the minimum wage enters as an explanatory variable.JEL codes: J23 J51 C32     

Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage

This article analyzes announcement effects of the new statutory minimum wage on employment expectations and uncertainties in Germany. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach applied to the IAB Establishment Panel, employers affected by the minimum wage show an increased employment uncertainty and a 0.9% points drop in their expected employment growth. Using the same identification strategy with data from 2015, the treatment effect on actual employment growth of affected employers matches the employers' expectation. Hence, an analysis of employer expectations seems to be promising to detect employment effects of policy changes before they come into force.     

The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview

In 2015, Germany introduced a statutory hourly minimum wage that was not only universally binding but also set at a relatively high level. We discuss the short‐run effects of this new minimum wage on a wide set of socioeconomic outcomes, such as employment and working hours, earnings and wage inequality, dependent and self‐employment, as well as reservation wages and satisfaction. We also discuss difficulties in the implementation of the minimum wage and the measurement of its effects related to non‐compliance and suitability of data sources. Two years after the minimum wage introduction, the following conclusions can be drawn: while hourly wages increased for low‐wage earners, some small negative employment effects are also identifiable. The effects on aspired goals, such as poverty and inequality reduction, have not materialised in the short run. Instead, a tendency to reduce working hours is found, which alleviates the desired positive impact on monthly income. Additionally, the level of non‐compliance was substantial in the short run, thus drawing attention to problems when implementing such a wide reaching policy.     

LONGER‐RUN EFFECTS OF ANTI‐POVERTY POLICIES ON DISADVANTAGED NEIGHBORHOODS

We assess evidence on the longer‐run effects of minimum wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and welfare on key economic indicators of economic self‐sufficiency in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The evidence suggests that the longer‐run effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit are to increase employment and to reduce poverty and public assistance. We also find some evidence consistent with higher welfare benefits having longer‐run adverse effects, and stronger evidence that tighter welfare time limits reduce poverty and public assistance in the longer‐run. The evidence on the longer‐run effects of the minimum wage on poverty and public assistance is not robust. (JEL J22, J23, J38)     

Wage and price controls in the equilibrium sequential search model

In this paper, we study the effects of wage and price controls on employment, output, and welfare in a simplified version of the Bénabou (J. Econom. Theory 60 (1993) 140) equilibrium sequential search model with bilateral heterogeneity. We show that a price ceiling increases output but the change in welfare depends on three effects: the reduction in aggregate search costs, the increase in surplus due to increased output, and the transfer of production to the least efficient firm. The model is formally identical to a standard equilibrium search model of the labor market so analogous results hold for the minimum wage.     

Monopsonistic competition,low-wage labour markets,and minimum wages – An empirical analysis

This article investigates the degree of monopsony power of employers in different industries against the background of a statutory minimum wage introduction in Germany in January 2015. A semi-structural estimation approach is employed based on a dynamic model of monopsonistic competition. The empirical analysis relies on a linked employer–employee data set which allows to control for observed heterogeneity both on the worker and on the firm side. The results show important differences in monopsonistic competition among low-wage industries: While retailing, the hotel and restaurant industry as well as agriculture can be described as monopsonistic labour markets, this is not true for other services and manufacturing of food products. From a policy point of view, the introduction of a uniform minimum wage may therefore lead to different employment reactions in industries with a similar minimum wage bite.     

Did the German Minimum Wage Reform Influence (Un)employment Growth in 2015? Evidence from Regional Data

Using the variation across space, age and sex and the variation across space and sectors, we analyse the relationship between the minimum wage and (un)employment growth in 2015. We use difference‐in‐differences specifications and instrument the bite of the minimum wage by the lagged bite. The results provide stable evidence that a higher minimum wage bite is related to a higher growth rate of regular employment. We also find stable evidence that a higher minimum wage bite is related to a lower growth rate of marginal employment. These results are consistent with a transformation of marginal to regular jobs. The relationship to total employment is slightly positive in our preferred specification but insignificant or negative in others. For unemployment, we find a positive relationship between the bite of the minimum wage and unemployment growth in our preferred specification but insignificant or negative results in others.     

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MINIMUM-WAGE INCREASES IN REDUCING POVERTY: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

Extending the work of Card and Krueger, we find minimum-wage increases (1988–2003) did not affect poverty rates overall, or among the working poor or among single mothers. Despite employment growth among single mothers, most gainers lived in nonpoor families and most working poor already had wages above the proposed minimums. Simulating a new federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour, we find 87% of workers who benefit live in nonpoor families. Poor single mothers receive 3.8% of all benefits. Expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit would far more effectively reduce poverty, especially for single mothers. ( JEL J21, J31, J38)