Export and Strategic Currency Hedging

This paper examines an international Cournot duopoly wherein a home firm and a foreign firm compete in the home market under exchange rate uncertainty. The foreign exporting firm, being risk averse, has incentives to hedge its exchange rate risk exposure. In a two-stage setting, we show that hedging via an unbiased currency futures market acts as a strategic device. In particular, under either constant or decreasing absolute risk aversion, an increase in the hedging volume of the foreign firm promotes its exports and deters the home firm’s output. In contrast to the well-known full-hedging result in a perfectly competitive environment, we find that the foreign firm over-hedges for strategic reasons. Furthermore, the separation result from the hedging literature under perfect competition no longer holds in our duopoly framework, i.e., equilibrium output levels depend on the risk attitude of the foreign firm as well as the probability distribution of the spot exchange rate.     

流动性风险和市场风险相依性下期货动态风险研究

文章从期货品种的流动性和合约的流动性视角出发,采用了一种新的综合性流动性指标L’,考虑流动性风险与市场风险的相关性,将流动性风险纳入GARCH—VaR模型中,并应用于交易保证金的动态设置。采用了豆油期货数据,分剐实证了不考虑流动性风险、考虑流动性指标L（Demsetz模型）和考虑流动性指标L＇（新的综合性流动性指标）的动态期货交易保证金模型,结果表明,考虑流动性指标L＇的模型不仅在覆盖风险上优于另两种模型,也在降低保证金收取水平上占优势,是相对合理全面的动态交易保证金模型。     

外汇期货套期保值CVaR风险的敏感度

外汇期货套期保值策略可以规避将来外汇现货交易风险,用条件风险价值的方法度量期货套期保值风险,分析期货量影响套期保值条件风险价值的敏感性。在t分布下,分别导出空头和多头套期保值CVaR风险关于期货量的一阶、二阶敏感度,并解释其经济意义。投资者可以根据套期保值CVaR风险的敏感程度增减期货量,使套期保值取得更好的效果。     

Do Real Exchange Rates Follow a Nonlinear Mean Reverting Process in Developing Countries?

In an effort to fight relatively high inflation, many developing countries try to manage their nominal exchange rates through official intervention. In addition, developing countries tend to have high transportation costs, tariffs, and nontariff barriers. These factors are among the sources of generating nonlinearity in real exchange rates and hence some nonlinear adjustment toward purchasing power parity (PPP) in developing countries. In this paper, we employ monthly real effective exchange rate (REER) data of 88 developing countries and test the null of nonstationarity versus an alternative of linear stationarity by the means of a conventional unit root test and compare the results with those obtained from a new test in which the null is the same but the alternative hypothesis is nonlinear stationarity. The latter test supports the PPP theory in more developing countries compared with the former test, suggesting that nonlinear adjustment toward PPP in developing countries is an important phenomenon. Reported country characterizations indicate that reversion in REER occurs more often for high-inflation countries and for countries with high flexibility in their exchange rates.     

黄金期货中的隐含远期人民币汇率及其运用研究

中国黄金市场已高度市场化与国际化,在按人民币即期汇率调整后,境内外黄金市场现货价格之间已没有明显的升贴水。基于黄金期货之间的隐含远期汇率与离岸人民币NDF市场远期汇率到期前的不一致性与临近到期日的一致性,运用黄金期货构建替代性的远期外汇头寸,为投资者提供了现行管制环境下实现外汇投资、跨市场套利以及对真实外汇敞口风险进行套期保值的新渠道。     

涨跌停板对中国商品期货市场效率影响实证研究

运用上海、郑州、大连期货交易所近六年日交易数据,实证研究涨跌停板制度对我国商品期货市场效率的影响。结论表明,涨（跌）停限制干扰了交易的正常进行,阻碍了信息传递,降低了我国商品期货市场效率,并且涨（跌）停所造成的价格延迟效应一般会延续到第二天。在此基础上,比较分析了与其他市场的异同,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Systematic sampling and real exchange rates

Systematic Sampling and Real Exchange Rates. — Four major real bilateral exchange rates are shown to be well characterized by nonlinear stationary models over the recent float. Using Monte Carlo methods, this paper examines the effects of systematic sampling on the behaviour of real exchange rates and shows that: systematic sampling reduces significantly nonlinearity in real exchange rates and affects their lag structure; given a certain span, the frequency of the data set becomes crucial for detecting mean reversion in real exchange rates once the analysis is switched from a linear to a nonlinear model. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that the parameter governing the speed of nonlinear mean reversion may be upward biased.     

PPP: <Emphasis Type="Italic">Delusion</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Reality</Emphasis>? Evidence from a Nonlinear Analysis

In this paper we analyze the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in a nonlinear framework using data for 18 bilateral US dollar exchange rates. Following Enders and Ludlow (2002), we use unit root and cointegration tests that do not assume a specific nonlinear adjustment. We find evidence of non-linear mean reversion in deviations from the PPP equilibrium in 11 out of 18 currencies. Additionally, to disentangle the respective contribution of exchange rate and prices to the adjustment toward the long run equilibrium, we estimate a Vector Error Correction Model. According to our empirical analysis, there exists a nonlinear mechanism to correct for deviation from the PPP equilibrium that comes mainly from the exchange rates. This is consistent with theoretical arguments on international goods markets under transaction costs as well as with an emerging strand of empirical literature. These results highlight the importance of neglecting the possibility of nonlinearity in the debate about the PPP and provide empirical evidence that supports the scenario of the PPP hypothesis as a reality.     

PURCHASING POWER PARITY WITH RANK TESTS FOR NONLINEAR COINTEGRATION IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This study applies nonlinear cointegration to assess exchange rates with the corresponding relative prices and aggregate price levels for 20 African countries. We find that a nonparametric rank test has higher power than parametric testing procedures; a true data‐generating process of exchange rate is in fact a stationary nonlinear process. We examine the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) from the nonparametric nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates PPP holds true for these countries. Hence, the long‐run African countries exchange rate adjustments are in equilibrium with the relevant fundamentals as suggested by the PPP hypothesis in a nonlinear way.     

The role of information sharing in trade credit distribution: evidence from Thailand

Prior research has shown that information sharing among lenders facilitates bank credit allocation and reduces default rates. We examine the role of information sharing in trade credit allocation using a sample of publicly traded firms in Thailand over the 1994–2005 period. Taking the establishment of a private credit bureau in 1999 as signalling improvement in information sharing among lenders, we obtain three main results in the improved information sharing period: (1) Thai firms have become less dependent on supplier credit; (2) financially constrained firms redistribute more funds via trade credit; and (3) the relationships between the use of trade credit and firm‐specific factors such as liquidity, free cash flow, tangible assets, interest cost ratio, and firm size weaken as information sharing improves. Our results are consistent with the view that better information sharing facilitates credit allocation. Hence, policies aiming at facilitating information exchange among financial intermediaries should be supported. We also find support for the view that bank credit substitutes for trade credit. This substitution lowers firms' cost of capital, given that trade credit is assumed to be more costly than bank loans.     

Globalization,transparency and economic growth: The vulnerability of Chinese firms to macroeconomic shocks

The process of globalization encompasses economic and financial integration. The abolition of capital controls and the dismantling of barriers of different kinds will expose previously sheltered companies to shocks originating in the global economic arena. Policy-makers in already globalized countries have learned that market participants should be prepared in due time to meet the new exposure to fluctuating rates of exchange, interest and inflation. China has recently adopted a version of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in an effort to improve the quality of information available for risk management and for pricing of risk. This paper analyzes the gains in transparency from the implementation of IFRS in Europe as of January 2005 and reports no improvements in regard to the macroeconomic impact on firms. Based on this experience, improvements for Chinese adoption are suggested. The paper presents a framework for how to understand and measure the impact of different scenarios on corporate performance. It also elaborates on how to communicate the macroeconomic effects to external stakeholders of the firm in a way that should foster further economic growth in China.     

Nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard

Hegwood and Papell (2002) conclude on the basis of analysis in a linear framework that long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) does not hold for 16 real exchange rate series, which were analyzed in Diebold. I lusted, and Rush (1991) for the period 1792-1913 under the Gold Standard. Rather, PPP deviations are mean-reverting to a changing equilibrium—a quasi PPP (QPPP) theory. We analyze the real exchange rate adjustment mechanism for their data set assuming a nonlinear adjustment process allowing for both a constant and a mean shifting equilibrium. Our results confirm that real exchange rates at that time were stationary, symmetric, nonlinear processes that revert to a nonconstant equilibrium rate. Speeds of adjustment were much quicker when breaks were allowed.     

Reverse imports, foreign direct investment and exchange rates

This paper investigates linkages among “reverse imports”, foreign direct investment and exchange rates. As an example, we have in mind the competition in the Japanese market of a Japanese multinational firm and a Chinese domestic firm. Products are differentiated based on Japanese consumers’ brand name recognition. The model shows that yen appreciation leads to an increase in Japanese production in China and “reverse imports” and a decrease in Japanese domestic production. Due to the barriers in brand name, the exports of the Chinese firm could fall, because the increase of reverse imports may erode the market share of the Chinese firm, even though total exports from China increase. Further, we find that yen appreciation may improve the profits of the Japanese firm and welfare in Japan under reverse imports, against conventional wisdom. The predictions of the model fit well with the actual numbers and shed light on the current debate on the Chinese currency.     

我国股指期货市场价格发现功能研究——基于上升、下跌和震荡状态下的分析

为了研究我国股指期货市场的价格发现功能,文章按照时变的思路,根据股指期货在不同市场环境下的作用和表现,将市场区别为上升、下跌和震荡三种情况来检验价格发现功能的差异。通过采用VEC模型、PT模型和IS模型进行对比分析,发现在大牛市和熊市时期,股指期货的所起到的作用会很明显,在价格发现中所占比例较大,为50-70%;而在股市平盘震荡时期,股指期货的价格发现能力要弱一些,只占20-30%比例。文中建议要加快发展我国股指期货市场,改善和优化目前的产品结构体系,减少对市场的不必要限制措施,使之成为更加规范和成熟的股指期货市场。     

Pricing to market, firm heterogeneity and the role of quality

We build a pricing-to-market (PTM) model with firm heterogeneity, which allows for imperfect competition and market segmentation in the presence of flexible exchange rates, horizontal and vertical differentiation and different tastes of consumers in destination markets. We derive firm’s pricing behaviour in response to price and quality competition shocks. We show that there is PTM heterogeneity across firms if quality has a role. We empirically assess the main predictions of our theoretical framework on Italian firm-level data. We document that export-domestic price margins are significantly affected by price and quality competitiveness factors even controlling for foreign demand conditions, size, export intensity, destination markets and unobservables. Finally, we provide evidence of strong heterogeneity across firms in their reaction to price and quality competitiveness.     

An Investigation of the Value Relevance of Alternative Foreign Exchange Disclosures*

We demonstrate analytically and empirically that valuing a firm with foreign operations in the presence of exchange rate uncertainty requires information on the foreign operating cash flows disaggregated by currency and persistence. In particular, given consolidated earnings, investors need information on the exchange gain or loss on permanent foreign operating cash flows. We extend the model to show how the permanent foreign cash flows can be used to condition the change in the translation adjustment to make it value‐relevant; however, using the permanent foreign cash flows directly is superior for valuation purposes. The empirical tests support our hypothesis that the market response to exchange rate movements is sensitive to the relative magnitudes of revenues and costs denominated in each foreign currency in which a firm has transactions. Disclosure of cash flows by currency should enhance the valuation of firms with foreign operations.     

Nonlinear dependence in exchange rate returns: How do emerging Asian currencies compare with major currencies?

This paper provides a comparative review of the dynamic characteristics of monthly exchange rate changes for five major currencies relative to those of five emerging Asian economies over the last four decades. Using the British pound sterling as the numeraire currency, the data support nonlinear dependence in exchange rates for the less-liquid Asian currencies, while results for the major currencies are mixed. The more recent data indicate rejection of nonlinear dependence in major currencies.     

The effect of exchange rates on firm exports and the role of FDI

This paper studies how exchange rate movements affect the export market entry and intensity decision of firms and the export behaviour of multinationals in the UK. Using data on British manufacturing firms we find that exchange rate movements have little effect on firm export participation but have a significant impact on export shares. Multinationals have at their disposal a greater array of instruments to deal with exchange rates changes, although their use may vary according to the motives behind FDI. We also find important differences according to the country of origin of multinational firms. Multinationals firms originating from outside of the EU are less affected by changes in the exchange rate compared to those inside, who appear similarly affected as domestic firms.     

TAKING THE PUZZLE OUT OF THE PURCHASING POWER PARITY PUZZLE: AN APPLICATION IN RESPECT OF SOUTH AFRICA

This paper discusses two versions of the purchasing power parity puzzle. It presents the results of nonlinearity and nonstationarity tests in respect of the real exchange rates of the rand. It is found that the rand real exchange rate behaviour tends to be nonlinear and stationary in a majority of cases in the sample. This suggests that for the majority of the currencies in the sample, the real exchange rates of the rand are mean‐reverting, implying that the purchasing power parity relation holds in a nonlinear manner.     

The impact of real exchange rate movements on firm performance: A case study of Taiwanese manufacturing firms

Taiwan experienced large depreciations of its currency, the New Taiwan (NT) dollar, in the late 1990s. The largest real depreciation, 13 per cent, occurred during the East Asian Financial Crisis. Since Taiwan was subjected neither to the economic turmoil of the crisis itself nor to the subsequent reforms, its experience provides a good opportunity for studying the effects of exchange rate changes on firm performance. This paper empirically examines the exchange rate effects on firm exports, domestic sales, total sales, value-added and productivity, by using data on firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange merged with customs trade data covering the period of 1992–2000. Our findings indicate that the real depreciation of the NT dollar led to an increase in exports, domestic sales, total sales, value-added, and productivity. In addition, we find that the productivity improvement induced by real currency depreciation may be a result of firm scale expansion.