Optimal Monetary Policy with Vertical Production and Trade*

This paper explores the optimal monetary policy response to domestic and foreign technology shocks in an open economy with vertical structure of production and trade. We find that any stage‐specific productivity shock in one country may have a transborder spillover effect on the other country via the vertical trade. So when choosing optimal monetary rules, each monetary authority should respond to both home and foreign productivity shocks. Also, the flexible exchange rate cannot replicate the flexible price equilibrium, even under producer currency pricing, due to price stickiness in multiple stages. We also find that the existence of a transborder spillover effect depends on the currencies of price setting. Finally, vertical trade may affect the value of exchange rate flexibility under PCP and LCP setting.     

Profit Warnings and the Pricing Behavior of ADRs

We assess the pricing behavior of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) in response to information about their profitability. Specifically, we test for leakage effects and lagged effects, and we assess the cross-sectional variation in market inefficiencies related to profit warnings by foreign firms listed on U.S. stock exchanges as ADRs. Foreign firms experience strong negative valuation effects at the time of the profit warning. Furthermore, there are pronounced leakage effects, which suggests that some market participants were able to capitalize on inside information before the profit warnings were issued. We also find statistically significant evidence of a three-day lag effect following the profit warning, which suggests that investors who did not have inside information could profit from a warning. When using the leakage as a proxy, the degree of market inefficiency is more pronounced for firms in the technology sector, but the extent of government ownership or countries of origin are not significant determinants of market revaluation following a profit warning. Overall, the pricing behavior of ADRs in response to profit information allows for potential arbitrage opportunities.     

Currency hedging with options and futures

This paper examines the optimal hedging decision of a competitive exporting firm which faces concurrently hedgeable exchange rate risk and non-hedgeable price risk. We show that the hedging role of currency options is due to two distinct sources of non-linearity: (i) the multiplicative nature of the price and exchange rate risk; and (ii) the marginal utility function of the firm. In particular, we show that a long put option position is optimal when the price risk is negatively correlated with the exchange rate risk and/or the firm is prudent.     

Currency Quandary: The Choice of Invoicing Currency under Exchange-Rate Uncertainty

Recent studies have derived optimal invoicing strategies for an exporting firm when exchange rates are uncertain. However, these studies fail to explain trade transacted in a third currency (vehicle currency). In this study, we extend existing models to include the possibility that trade occurs in a vehicle currency. We find that under conditions stipulated by existing models, vehicle-currency invoicing is not preferred. The presence of a competing exporter under imperfect competition, however, can induce vehicle-currency pricing. This is consistent with trade in many primary commodities dominated by few exporters with many importers but where commodities are not perfectly homogeneous.     

Determining a Modified Currency Board's Two-Period Exchange Rate Strategy

Is it preferable for a modified currency board (MCB) to disguise its true characteristics and preferences and renege later? This paper analyzes a model in which a MCB determines its first-period exchange rate strategy to maximize a two-period welfare function. The inflation rate anchored by a classical currency board (CCB) is always a benchmark to the MCB in its first period decision. If the benchmark inflation rate is either sufficiently low or sufficiently high, the MCB chooses the optimal exchange rate in both periods without playing a credibility game over time. However, if the benchmark is at a moderate level, a strategy of overtly deceiving the public by pretending to be a CCB is shown to be superior to a strategy of concealing through policy randomization.     

Currency substitution, portfolio diversification, and money demand

Abstract .  We extend the Thomas (1985) dynamic optimizing model of money demand and currency substitution to the case in which the individual has restricted or no access to foreign currency denominated bonds. In this case currency substitution decisions and asset substitution decisions are not separable. The results obtained suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of currency substitution. Applying this approach to six Latin-American countries, we find evidence of currency substitution in Colombia, Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, but not in Brazil and Chile.     

Pricing to market behaviour in European car markets

This paper investigates PTM behaviour in European car markets for a period of great interest (1993-98), taking into account the role of invoicing currency. The results indicate that local currency price stability is a strong and pervasive phenomenon across products independently of the invoicing currency. The paper offers robustness checks, tests and arguments that justify the interpretation of this finding, at least in part, as evidence of PTM. It implies the existence of market segmentation and price discrimination, despite the completion of the single market programme on 1 January 1993.     

消费者寻求多样化与企业定价竞争

消费者寻求多样化的购买行为会对寡头企业之间的价格竞争和经济效率产生重要影响。文章研究发现,针对消费者寻求多样化的购买行为,企业会对忠诚的消费者给予价格优惠,而对新顾客索取高价;消费者寻求多样化购买行为弱化了企业两期价格竞争,导致"默契合谋";而以两期统一定价为基准的经济效率分析显示,歧视定价机制促进了企业间竞争,导致消费者剩余增加,企业利润减少。     

Currency crisis transmission through international trade

The Eurozone recent crisis has shown how balance of payments problems in less developed European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries can affect EMU trading partners, spreading the crisis to a larger group of countries. This paper introduces a three-country dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze whether and how terms of trade effects can generate a spillover effect or a currency crisis transmission between countries. Specifically, using a two period model, it incorporates world market clearing conditions for tradables into a new theoretic model, analyzes net capital flow movements between countries, and establishes cross-border macroeconomic linkages. This paper shows how a currency crisis can transmit through the real (trade) sector channel of the economy.     

Regulating Private Infrastructure Investment: Optimal Pricing for Access to Essential Facilities

This paper analyzes optimal pricing for access to essential facilities in a competitive environment. The focus is on investment incentive issues arising from regulation under complete information. To that end, examining the provision of a natural monopoly infrastructure with unlimited capacity, it is shown that the fixed component of a regulated access price can be structured so as to induce a race between market participants to provide the infrastructure. An appropriate pricing formula can ensure that a single firm chooses to invest at the socially optimal time (taking into account producer and consumer surplus) despite the immediate access granted to rivals and the non-existence of government subsidies. Under the optimal pricing formula, firms choose their investment timing based on their desire to pre-empt their rivals. This pricing formula is efficient (a two part tariff), implementable ex post, and robust to alternative methods of asset valuation (replacement or historical cost). When firms are not identical, the access pricing formula resembles, in equilibrium, a fully distributed cost methodology.     

Currency substitution,inflation, and welfare

Currency substitution affects the mapping between social welfare and inflation by altering the underlying money demand function and influencing interest rates. In order to explore the essence of this effect, I build a model with working capital under which foreign currency is substituted with the less liquid components of domestic money. The framework closely mimics the actual pattern of currency substitution across varying rates of inflation and enables the study of an additional channel that works through the impact of currency substitution on interest rates. It is found that there is a threshold inflation rate, which turns out to be 44% under baseline calibration, below which currency substitution decreases welfare and vice versa. A practical implication is that, at inflation rates lower (greater) than the threshold, the potential welfare gains from disinflation to a near-zero inflation rate are higher (lower) if there is currency substitution than otherwise.     

Currency internationalization and valuation effects: based on the threshold model

ABSTRACT

Based on the three functions of currency internationalization, including exchange medium, pricing currency and foreign reserve, this paper explores how the degree of currency internationalization affects the impact of the exchange rate and the asset price on valuation effects. Using samples of 161 countries or regions from 2001 to 2016 and the threshold regression method, we find that, firstly, there is a threshold effect of the exchange rate on valuation effects due to currency internationalization. The higher the comprehensive level of currency internationalization is, the greater the positive impact of the exchange rate on valuation effects will be. Secondly, the threshold effect of the asset price on valuation effects due to currency internationalization is not significant because of the high stickiness of asset price. Besides, compared with developed countries, currency internationalization is more important to increase valuation effects through exchange rate channel and asset price channel in developing countries or regions. Finally, there are some differences in the three types of currency internationalization functions. The promotion of exchange medium function will lead to a greater positive impact of the exchange rate on valuation effects, as well as pricing currency function. However, the foreign reserve function has no such effect.     

A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises

This paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the ‘third generation’, in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the interplay between private firms’ credit-constraints and nominal price rigidities. Despite our emphasis on microfoundations, the model remains sufficiently simple that the policy analysis can be conducted graphically. The analysis hinges on four main features (i) ex post deviations from purchasing power parity; (ii) credit constraints a la Bernanke-Gertler; (iii) foreign currency borrowing by domestic firms; (iv) a competitive banking sector lending to firms and holding reserves and a monetary policy conducted either through open market operations or short-term lending facilities. We derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a sunspot equilibrium with currency crises. We show that an interest rate increase intended to support the currency in a crisis may not be effective, but that a relaxation of short-term lending facilities can make this policy effective by attenuating the rise in interest rates relevant to firms.     

反垄断调查的一个鉴别：一致性定价行为背后的差异与合谋

如何区分成本上涨时企业同时涨价的行为究竟是价格合谋还是寡头竞争的企业正常的价格调整行为？这是反垄断执法机构面临的一个难题。本文通过数理模型证明了无论企业进行伯川德竞争还是古诺竞争，寡头竞争的企业的定价随着成本的变化存在一个连续调整路径，而组成卡特尔的企业的定价则会随着成本的变化出现一个不连续的跳跃。因此反垄断执法机构在观察到企业的一致性定价行为之后，如果能从以往的价格监测纪录中发现这些企业在成本下跌时，价格存在着更大幅度的下调，则可以据此怀疑这些企业存在着价格合谋，应开展更深入的调查来搜集这些企业违反《反垄断法》的全面证据。     

Sub-national differentiation and the role of the firm in optimal international pricing

We illuminate the relationship between optimal firm pricing and optimal trade policy by exploring a generalized model that accommodates product differentiation at both the national and sub-national (firm) levels. We assume monopolistic competition in the differentiated products at the sub-national level. When the national and sub-national substitution elasticities are similar we find little opportunity for small countries to improve their terms of trade through trade distortions, because firms play an important preemptive role in optimally pricing unique varieties. We contrast this with standard applications of perfect-competition Armington models, which exhibit high optimal tariffs—even for relatively small countries.     

Pricing currency options in a fractional Brownian motion with jumps

A new framework for pricing the European currency option is developed in the case where the spot exchange rate fellows a fractional Brownian motion with jumps. An analytic formula for pricing European foreign currency options is proposed using the equivalent martingale measure and the estimation method of parameters in the pricing model is given, enabling option prices to be computed efficiently and accurately. For the purpose of understanding the pricing model, some properties of this pricing model are discussed in the latter part of this paper. Finally, the numerical simulations illustrate that our model is flexible and easy to implement.     

Currency crises and the real economy: The role of banks

This paper attempts to explain the divergent output effects of currency crises through a very simple and intuitive model that relates the effects of a devaluation not only to the financial fragility of banks, but also to the degree of financial market imperfection. The model shows that countries with higher degrees of financial market imperfection and/or a banking sector whose balance sheets are weak, in terms of having low net worth and high foreign currency exposure, are much more likely to suffer a contraction in the wake of a currency crisis.     

Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility

This paper develops a welfare-based model of monetary policy in an open economy. We examine the optimal monetary policy under commitment, focusing on the nature of price adjustment in determining policy. We investigate the implications of these policies for exchange-rate flexibility. The traditional approach maintains that exchange-rate flexibility is desirable in the presence of real country-specific shocks that require adjustment in relative prices. However, in the light of empirical evidence on nominal price response to exchange-rate changes—specifically, that there appears to be a large degree of local-currency pricing (LCP) in industrialized countries—the expenditure-switching role played by nominal exchange rates may be exaggerated in the traditional literature. In the presence of LCP, we find that the optimal monetary policy leads to a fixed exchange rate, even in the presence of country-specific shocks. This is true whether monetary policy is chosen cooperatively or non-cooperatively among countries.     

Frederic Lee and Post-Keynesian Pricing Theory

Frederic Lee has been a major contributor to post-Keynesian economics, mainly to its theory of pricing. This article summarizes his objections to the neoclassical view of the firm and pricing, as well as his view that changes in quantities, rather than in prices, provide the important information to firms. It also outlines Lee's views on competition, and examines the three pricing doctrines Lee carefully analyzed—markup pricing (associated with Kalecki), normal-cost pricing or full-cost pricing (associated with Andrews), and target-return or administered pricing (associated with Means). The article then discusses the relationship between Lee and three strands of post-Keynesianism: Kaleckian, Sraffian and Eichnerian pricing theories. It explains why Lee objected to some features of each of these. The article concludes by discussing why, towards the end of his life, Lee felt (mistakenly) that his ideas had been dismissed by heterodox economists.     

Access Pricing under Rate-of-Return Regulation

Third-party access to major infrastructure facilities is a key component of National Competition Policy. In many situations, both through state regimes and access undertakings under the new part IIIA of the Trade Practices Act, access will be governed by explicit or implicit rate-of-return procedures. Infrastructure assets will be valued and translated into an allowable return for the owners. However, setting allowed returns is only the first part of the regulatory process. This paper uses a simple model to evaluate the 'second-best' access prices under rate-of-return regulation. We show that optimal access prices will depend on the degree of downstream competition. With imperfect price competition and fixed numbers of firms downstream, optimal access prices will 'mimic' downstream competition and reduce downstream profits. With free entry downstream, optimal access pricing should determine an optimal level of downstream participation. We also show that the access provider's incentives to introduce optimal access prices will depend on the degree of vertical integration.