充分发挥股权杠杆的作用

私募基金不仅服务于实体经济,也创造实体经济 作为金融工具,私募股权投资不仅服务于实体经济,而且创造实体经济,创造出的实体经济是以创新的方法、改革的路径创造新的、有生命力的、有未来的实体经济.有一个词叫做战略新兴产业,如果以历史的眼光来看待这个词语,回头一望,就会发现,从农牧时期到工业革命再到今天的互联网时代,所有的战略新兴产业都是在人们摸索创新纠错直到最后成长出来以后,才昭告了世人,所谓战略新兴产业才成功了,才定位了,才明确了,这其中就有私募股权基金的贡献.     

The role of bank lenders in firm leverage adjustments

In this article we examine the impact of bank loan characteristics on firm leverage adjustments, with a special focus on the conflicts of interest between shareholders and creditors. The results show that, on average, more bank loans slow down leverage adjustments. The subsample analysis reveals that bank loans slow down leverage adjustments in underlevered firms but speed up adjustments in overlevered firms. This finding suggests that bank lenders are able to limit their risk exposure in borrowers and protect their own rights. Further evidence indicates that the effect of bank loans is more notable during the global financial crisis and when a firm is financially constrained. Bank loan concentration and maturity have a significant impact on leverage adjustments as well.     

The role of jumps and leverage in forecasting volatility in international equity markets

We analyze the importance of jumps and the leverage effect on forecasts of realized volatility in a large cross-section of 18 international equity markets, using daily realized measures data from the Oxford-Man Realized Library, and two widely employed empirical models for realized volatility that allow for jumps and leverage. Our out-of-sample forecast evaluation results show that the separation of realized volatility into a continuous and a discontinuous (jump) component is important for the S&P 500, but of rather limited value for the remaining 17 international equity markets that we analyze. Only for 6 equity markets are significant and sizable forecast improvements realized at the one-step-ahead horizon, which, nevertheless, deteriorate quickly and abruptly as the prediction horizon increases. The inclusion of the leverage effect, on the other hand, has a much larger impact on all 18 international equity markets. Forecast gains are not only highly significant, but also sizeable, with gains remaining significant for forecast horizons of up to one month ahead.     

The role of on- and off-balance-sheet leverage of banks in the late 2000s crisis

Extensive regulatory changes and technological advances have transformed banking systems to a great extent. Banks have reacted to the challenges posed by the new operating environment by creating new products and expanding their activities to some uncharted business areas. In this paper, we study how modern banking which gave birth to the off-balance-sheet leverage activities affected the risk profile of U.S. banks as well as the level of systemic risk before and after the onset of the late 2000s financial crisis. Towards this, we separate on- from off-balance-sheet leverage and capture the latter with different, yet complementary, measures which do not exist in the current literature. Special attention is paid on the deleveraging process that occurred in the banking market after the crisis erupted, which is an additional innovative feature of this study. Our findings reveal that leverage, both explicit and hidden off-the-balance-sheet, increases the individual risk of banking firms making them vulnerable to financial shocks. Reverse leverage, on the other hand, is beneficial for individual banks’ health, but is found to be harmful for financial stability. We also demonstrate that the banks which concentrate on traditional lines of business typically carry less risk compared to those involved with modern financial instruments.     

Value innovation: the strategic logic of high growth

Why are some companies able to sustain high growth in revenues and profits--and others are not? To answer that question, the authors, both of INSEAD, spent five years studying more than 30 companies around the world. They found that the difference between the high-growth companies and their less successful competitors was in each group's assumptions about strategy. Managers of the less successful companies followed conventional strategic logic. Managers of the high-growth companies followed what the authors call the logic of value innovation. Conventional strategic logic and value innovation differ along the basic dimensions of strategy. Many companies take their industry's conditions as given; value innovators don't. Many companies let competitors set the parameters of their strategic thinking; value innovators do not use rivals as benchmarks. Rather than focus on the differences among customers, value innovators look for what customers value in common. Rather than view opportunities through the lens of existing assets and capabilities, value innovators ask, What if we start anew? The authors tell the story of the French hotelier Accor, which discarded the notion of what a hotel is supposed to look like in order to offer what most customers want: a good night's sleep at a low price. And Virgin Atlantic challenged industry conventions by eliminating first-class service and channeling savings into innovations for business-class passengers. Those companies didn't set out to build advantages over the competition, but they ended up achieving the greatest competitive advantages.     

Female CFOs,leverage and the moderating role of board diversity and CEO power

This paper investigates the extent to which female Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) affect corporate leverage. We examine female CFOs in UK firms and find that they significantly reduce the leverage of the firm; however, a female CFO's ability to influence corporate leverage is moderated by the senior decision-making environment in the firm. In particular, female CFOs are more effective in reducing leverage in firms with boards that are diverse with respect to gender, nationality and age, and in firms where the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) is not overly powerful. In addition, we find that externally appointed female CFOs reduce leverage more, in line with them having less allegiances to other top managers and greater scope to deviate from existing policies. Our work contributes to the literature by examining the conditions under which gender-specific risk-taking preferences lead to observable effects on corporate outcomes.     

The leverage effect puzzle: Disentangling sources of bias at high frequency

The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between an asset return and its changes of volatility. A natural estimate consists in using the empirical correlation between the daily returns and the changes of daily volatility estimated from high frequency data. The puzzle lies in the fact that such an intuitively natural estimate yields nearly zero correlation for most assets tested, despite the many economic reasons for expecting the estimated correlation to be negative. To better understand the sources of the puzzle, we analyze the different asymptotic biases that are involved in high frequency estimation of the leverage effect, including biases due to discretization errors, to smoothing errors in estimating spot volatilities, to estimation error, and to market microstructure noise. This decomposition enables us to propose novel bias correction methods for estimating the leverage effect.     

The role of audit evidence in a strategic audit

This study examines how audit risk (the probability of false acceptance) and its components change when the auditor obtains audit evidence in an acceptance sampling model. Inherent risk and audit risk increase with audit evidence if the auditee has a sufficiently strong incentive for committing fraud. Detection risk always increases when audit evidence is introduced. If the auditor has a sufficiently strong incentive for avoiding false rejection, audit risk also increases with audit evidence. The analysis indicates that requiring auditors to obtain information is not effective in preventing material misstatements in at least some instances.     

Partial acquisitions in emerging markets: A test of the strategic market entry and corporate control hypotheses

In this paper, we examine the motivations of acquirers undertaking partial acquisitions in emerging markets by testing two competing hypotheses: the market for corporate control hypothesis and the market entry hypothesis. We find that targets of cross-border acquisitions outperform targets of domestic acquisitions in the pre-acquisition period. While cross-border acquisitions have no significant impact on target firms' operating performance, targets of domestic acquisitions experience significant improvements in operating performance and substantial changes in ownership structure after the acquisition. The evidence suggests that domestic partial acquisitions in emerging markets serve as a market for corporate control, while cross-border partial acquisitions are motivated by the strategic market entry rationale.     

Nonlinear association between ownership concentration and leverage: The role of family control

The 2008–2009 global financial crisis and the European debt crisis have raised further questions on leverage decision making. In this regard, this study examines the association between concentration of controlling rights and leverage in the presence of families. This study also assesses the role played by families in moderating the nonlinear reversed U-shaped association between concentration of controlling rights and debt ratio. Publicly listed companies in Taiwan, which is a nation characterized by weak protection for minority shareholders, are studied for the period of 1999 to 2014. The effect of the nonlinear inverted U shape is confirmed, and the weakened effect of the existence of family control is presented. The results remain unchanged in several alternative tests, including addressing the endogeneity issue of ownership–decision studies. Overall, this study highlights the ownership–debt relationship in a nation with weak protection of minority shareholders.     

促进东西部金融中心建设互动发挥金融的杠杆作用

建设上海国际金融中心和重庆长江上游地区金融中心是国家战略的充分体现。促进东西部金融中心建设互动,将不断提升我国金融支撑能力,促进区域统筹发展,增强金融业抗风险能力。本文对上海、重庆金融中心自身建设以及互动提出了针对性建议。     

The role of hindsight in foresight: refining strategic reasoning

The purpose of this paper is to deepen understanding of the role that hindsight plays in foresight. The authors argue that the past is not an isolated static state, but one that is intimately connected with the future. However, there are several biases that influence our perceptions and conceptions of the past. These biases act as constraints on our ability to understand the driving forces that emerge from the past, play out through the present and become the critical uncertainties in the future. They could result in misperceptions about events or processes and so may impair foresight methodologies, such as scenario thinking. Such a foresight bias is characterized by a combination of hindsight biases, creeping determinism and searching for information that corresponds to people’s views about both the past and the future.The cognitive linkages between past, present and future are discussed and the role of counter-to-factual analysis is emphasized as an antidote to the foresight bias. Counter-to-factual analysis is both a cognitive process and an analytical reasoning tool applied to the analysis of historical data. Using insights generated from the explorations of counter-to-factual reasoning, the authors present a hindsight-foresight paragon that fortifies current foresight enhancing techniques with counter-to-factual analysis.

Two Roads diverged in a yellow wood,

And sorry I could not travel both

And be one traveler, long I stood

To where it bent in the undergrowth…

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-

I took the one less traveled by,

And that has made all the difference.

The Road Not Taken, Robert Frost

Men’s curiosity searches past and future

And clings to that dimension. But to apprehend

The point of intersection of the timeless

With time, is an occupation for the saint—

T. S. Eliot, from The Dry Salvages     

On the relation between the market-to-book ratio, growth opportunity, and leverage ratio

The negative relation between the market-to-book ratio and leverage ratio is one of the most widely documented empirical regularities in the capital structure literature. Most related studies take this negative relation as given and debate about its economic interpretation. We show that firms with higher market-to-book ratios face lower debt financing costs and borrow more. The relation between the market-to-book ratio and leverage ratio is not monotonic and is positive for most firms (more than 88% of COMPUSTAT firms and more than 95% of total market capitalization). The previously documented negative relation is driven by a subset of firms with high market-to-book ratios.     

The consumption response to household leverage in China: The role of investment at household level

This paper examines whether leverage can improve household consumption and facilitate the consumption upgrading in China. By employing two rounds of Chinese household surveys, our econometric results show that, while household leverage can increase the level of total household consumption expenditures, it can not significantly drive consumption upgrading. Moreover, we explore the impact of household investment factors on the relationship between leverage and consumption. We find that investment exerts a crowding-out effect, while the joint effect of household investment and income can facilitate the relationship between leverage and household consumption since income factors can serve as compensation. Overall, this paper provides new evidence in the context of emerging markets, offering a more comprehensive understanding the relationship between household leverage and consumption.     

New entry,strategic diversity and efficiency in soccer betting markets: the creation and suppression of arbitrage opportunities

ABSTRACT

We find that prices offered by competing bookmakers within the same quote-driven soccer (football) betting market provide arbitrage opportunities. However, the management practices of bookmakers prevent informed bettors exploiting these in practice. We identify two groups of bookmakers, ‘position-takers’ and ‘book-balancers’. Position-takers alter their odds infrequently, while actively restricting informed traders. Book-balancers actively manage inventory by adjusting odds, and place few restrictions on their customers. We identify 545 arbitrage portfolios, and find that around 50% would require a bet on the favourite at the position-taking bookmaker. The management practices of position-takers generally prevent these opportunities being exploited in practice.     

Informational leverage: the problem of noise traders

The literature suggests that security design can be used to manipulate the information content of securities prices [what is referred to as the “informational leverage effect” in Boot and Thakor (J Finance 48, 1349–1378, 1993)]. The informational leverage effect arises in this literature in a market microstructure environment in which noise trade is exogenous, which is a fairly standard assumption dating back to the framework developed in Grossman and Stiglitz (Am Econ Rev 70, 393–408, 1980). This assumption is relaxed in our paper, and we show that the informational effects described in the related literature become less clear cut when noise trading activity is endogenous. We find that the intensity and direction of these effects depends crucially on the parameters describing the modeling environment. The elegant point of the informational leverage literature is that these effects arise largely independently of such parameters, but with endogenous noise trading that is no longer true. This literature may, therefore, lead to too strong conclusions being drawn about the relationship between information revelation and security design. We are very grateful for the helpful comments made by an anonymous referee.     

On the strategic use of debt and capacity in rapidly expanding markets

We exploit the 1996 telecommunications deregulation as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate whether incumbents alter debt and capacity tactics when facing new rivals. We find that incumbents increase leverage after deregulation, even when controlling for traditional determinants and market conditions. Consistent with a new post-deregulation benefit, a higher leverage is positively related to market shares. This behavior appears only in telecommunication segments most affected by the deregulation. We find weak evidence for increased use of capacity tactics. Our findings for incumbents facing an influx of rivals in a rapidly expanding market differ from those of earlier studies considering mature markets.     

What explains the value premium? The case of adjustment costs,operating leverage and financial leverage

This paper empirically examines and compares the different theoretical predictions on how adjustment costs, operating and financial leverage influence the value premium. Consistent with Ozdagli (2012), financial leverage plays a dominant role, supported by adjustment costs (which represent the degree of investment irreversibility). Specifically, the observed value premium is driven by the financial leverage differences between value and growth firms, partially neutralized by investment irreversibility. The relation between the value premium and investment irreversibility is contrary to the intuition in Zhang (2005) and Cooper (2006). Operating leverage does not significantly influence the value premium.     

Taming polysemous signals: The role of marketing intensity on the relationship between financial leverage and firm performance

This study traces the degree of integration and volatility spillover effect between the Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets by analyzing the Meteor shower hypothesis. Daily data are used from nine worldly equity markets (KSE 100, NIKKEI 225, HIS, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DOW JONES, GADXI, FTSE 350 and DFMGI) for the period of 2005 to 2014. First, we used the whole data set and after that we split data set into two subsets, First subset of data contains the era of global financial crisis of 2008 from 2005 to 2009 and Second subset is after global financial crisis time period from 2010 to 2014 (The global crisis prevailed till end of 2009). By following the Hamao et al. (1990) technique the univariate GARCH type models are employed to explore the dynamic linkages between Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets. The results from whole data set illustrate that there is mixed co‐movements between leading foreign stock markets and Pakistani stock market. The results from both subsets provide an evidence that there is a unidirectional mean and volatility spillover effect from S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DJI and DFMGI to KSE 100. Also we found bidirectional spillover effect between DFMGI and KSE 100 from both subsets of data. We concluded that there is only one indirect linkage through which may the information transmitted to KSE 100. This linkage is developed due to the co‐movement among KSE 100, DFMGI and NASDAQ 100 in crisis period. This integration between these markets may provide a sign of indirect linkage. It also exhibits the volatility in Pakistan stock market returns is instigated through direct effects as well as indirect effects. Our study brings important conclusions for financial institutions, portfolio managers, market players and academician to diagnose the nature and level of linkages between the financial markets.     

On the nurturing of strategic foresight: The Ubuntu perspective

We draw on ideas from the African humanistic philosophy of Ubuntu with existing approaches to propose alternative ways of nurturing strategic foresight in practice. Delineating Ubuntu as a transient organizing philosophy, we show how the integration of Ubuntu in everyday organizing could enhance relational pluralism, and in-turn strategic foresight. Embarking on some mild speculative expedition based on ideas from Ubuntu, we also outline some activities and organizing routines of team leaders that may contribute to encouraging employees to enact ‘foresightful’ actions in their situated practice. We conclude with implications of our study for organizing and some directions for futureresearch.