世界货币美元的作用及发展趋势

世界货币美元在整个世界经济的发展过程中发挥着重要作用,但也成为美国掠夺其他国家的发展成果的重要工具。从本世纪初以来的美元贬值并没有超出美国和美元持有国的承受范围,也并非经济基本面因素所致,美元还有可能回到强势的位置上来。而从欧元、日元和英镑等其他世界货币来看,全球要颠覆以美元为主导的国际货币体系是不现实的。但就长期而言,美元必然会随着美国整体实力的相对衰落而影响减小,但其霸主地位仍难撼动。     

2010年国际市场大宗商品价格以震荡为主

经济基本面、流动性、美元走势以及地缘政治是影响国际大宗商品价格走势的主要因素。2009年虽然经济基本面并不支持,但在经济回升预期、流动性充裕以及美元持续贬值等因素的共同作用下,全球大宗商品价格先于世界经济触底回升并强劲反弹。2010年,尽管流动性因素在各国政府刺激政策退出的预期下可能会有所改变,但全球经济逐步复苏的基本面因素以及美元长期走软趋势决定国际市场大宗商品价格的升势不会发生根本性逆转,但震荡将加剧。     

美元的长期走势初探

美元贬值一直是经济学家讨论不休的热点话题,也是包括美国在内的各国经济政策制定者极为关注的政策问题。在目前的国际货币体系下,美元动荡不定,会对包括美国在内的世界各国带来可以预料的较大冲击。     

美元汇率的走势分析

2005年,美元贬值的趋势将有所缓解,美国良好的经济前景、不断趋紧的货币政策、各国中央银行仍会支持美元以及美元贬值对减少贸易赤字的效应逐步显现等因素有助于支持美元逐渐企稳。然而,从深层次看,美国预算和贸易赤字体现了全球经济发展的不均衡。美国不会独自承担削减双赤字的成本,因此,从中长期看,美元的持续贬值将是世界经济调整的重要部分,只要美国的双赤字问题不能得到根本缓解,美元的贬值就会持续下去。对于汇率与美元正式或半正式挂钩的国家来说,买入美国资产支持美元的行为不应持续。因为随着时间的延长,央行买入美元越多,未来的损失会越大。归根到底,需要降低全球对美国消费的依赖。过度依靠美国市场的国家和地区必须加快寻找其他国外市场,同时加大增加国内需求的努力。否则,国内经济的增长可能会难以持续。     

金融危机对美元国际地位的影响探析

2008年下半年,始于美国的次贷危机逐渐恶化为金融危机,并蔓延至全球。期间,美元一改前期颓势大幅升值,其主要原因是美国政府救市、外部资金回流美国等。但2009年年初至年中,美元总体又呈贬值趋势,这主要是由美联储实施量化宽松政策等原因所造成。鉴于美国拥有独一无二的综合国力、取代美元地位的货币尚不成熟等原因,金融危机不会改变美元在国际货币体系中的地位,但其将打击各国持有美元资产的信心,增加美元国际地位被侵蚀的风险。     

纵观2003年世界主要货币走势

美元贬值对美国GDP贡献率约1％;美国政府通过“弱势美元”政策刺激经济,降低通货紧缩的风险。 欧元在震荡中上升是2003年世界经济的一个显著特点。 亚洲主要货币低估将导致世界经济失衡。     

论美元弱势及其对世界经济的影响

自 2 0 0 1年以来 ,美元对欧元、英镑和日元等主要发达国家货币汇价持续下跌 ,而美国经济在这段时期增长速度也是大大放慢 ,陷入衰退之中。本文分析美元贬值的原因和与美元贬值密切相关的美国经济增长趋势 ,揭示出美国经济目前存在的问题、问题的症结、未来的趋势及其对中国经济和世界经济的影响。本文的结论是 ,美国经济正处于从一个增长周期向另一个增长周期过渡的阶段 ,过渡会持续一段时期 ,这导致了美元的颓势 ,同时也表明美国经济近期复苏可能性很小。     

美元贬值与东亚货币合作

当前国际金融体系的显著特征是美元在国际金融体系中的支配地位,在金融交易、衍生品交易、贸易计价、官方储备和作为锚货币方面,美元仍然是世界上最主要的货币.但是,随着全球经济的发展,欧盟、东亚等地区经济实力不断提升、美国"双赤字"的巨额累积、美元的长期贬值,美元本位的国际货币安排暴露出越来越多的问题.美元本位下美元汇率的变动给国际金融体系带来了巨大的风险.本文针对美元贬值不可避免的事实,指出了美元贬值将导致全球金融动荡,提出了东亚经济体的应对策略.     

美元汇率走势及影响因素分析

美元是这次金融危机的关键词,正是以美元为世界货币的国际货币体系日益积累的矛盾最终引爆了这场危机。近期美元跌跌不休的走势引起了广泛的关注,一方面是因为美元目前仍是世界货币,另一方面也是因为,我们往往更关注世界货币的贬值而非升值。     

低利率时期美国经济风险的贸易转移——基于中国案例的研究

低利率时期,美国通过美元贬值和贸易保护等形武向世界各国转移经济风险,作为美国最大贸易伙伴的中国,其外汇资产安全和经济稳定也面临着严峻考验。本文通过讨论美国对中国以贸易途径转移风险的各种形式,揭示了中国经济所面临的深层次挑战,并对此提出了相对应的策略。     

Near-zero U.S. Interest Rates,Primary Commodity Prices,and Financial Control in Emerging Markets

The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center of the world dollar standard has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except in moments of international crises, the Fed focuses inward on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies in the rest of the world. But this makes the U.S. economy less stable. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into emerging markets by carry traders that generate bubbles in international primary commodity prices and other assets. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a reflux of the hot money. Ironically, these near-zero interest rates hold back investment in the American economy itself.     

The Impact of a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances on Global Wealth

Partly reflecting structural advantages such as liquidity and strong investor protection, foreigners have built up extremely large positions in US (as well as other dollar‐denominated) financial assets. This paper describes the impact on global wealth of an unanticipated shock to US financial markets. For every 10 per cent decline in the dollar, US equity markets, and US bond markets, total wealth losses to foreigners could amount to about 5 percentage points of foreign GDP. Four stylized facts emerge: (i) foreign countries, particularly emerging markets, are more exposed to US bonds than to US equities; (ii) over time US exposure has increased for most countries; (iii) on average, US asset holdings of developed countries and emerging markets (scaled by GDP) are very similar; and (iv) based on their reserves position alone, wealth losses of emerging market governments could on average amount to about 2¾ percentage points of their GDP.     

China Is Not yet Number One

Many claim that China will soon overtake the US. I argue that this claim is based on a misuse of statistics. The International Comparison Program (ICP) price data is necessary to compare living standards, since a dollar’s worth of yuan buys more in China than a dollar buys in the US. But the fact that rice and clothes are cheap in rural China does not make the Chinese economy larger. What matters for size in the world economy is how much a yuan can buy on world markets. Using the correct prices, the US remains the world’s largest economic power by a substantial margin.     

基于数值模拟下的中国外汇储备潜在损失分析

外汇储备余额持续积累加剧了外汇储备资产潜在损失的进一步扩大。文章通过对中国外汇储备积累方式的分析,认为造成外汇储备损失的主要路径有三个:冲销债券的利息支付、国际短期资本的投机和人民币对美元汇率升值。在此基础上,文章数值模拟了不同路径下的外汇储备潜在损失,得出以下结论:一是人民币过快升值会加重我国外汇储备损失,应根据我国金融市场的发展状况,逐步改革汇率体系,令人民币更富弹性;二是改变中国外汇储备管理模式,从以往的被动型、防御型模式变成主动型、投资型模式,一方面逐步放松资本账户管制,允许个人和机构海外投资,另一方面加大中国的主权财富基金——中国投资公司的投资力度和规模,通过市场化手段获得更高收益。     

Has Investment in Australia's Manufacturing Sector Become More Export Oriented?

A more competitive and export-oriented manufacturing sector is an important objective of the Australian Labor Government's economic strategy. In furthering this objective levels of tariff protection have been lowered and foreign exchange markets deregulated. The strategy has been boosted by the competitive gain afforded by depreciation of the Australian dollar in 1985 and 1986. This article offers estimates of the size of Australian manufacturing investment in export-creating capacity over the period 1980-81 to 1987-88. A breakdown of these estimates by individual industries is also provided.
Our estimates indicate an improving trend since depreciation of the Australian dollar. However, this improvement has been from a low base. Moreover, the levels of investment in export-creating capacity have yet to attain the levels prevailing in the early 1980s, and there are worrying signs that the improving trend stalled toward the end of the period. However, the breakdown of our estimates by industry groupings shows positive changes in the pattern of investment in export-creating capacity. There has been a movement away from resource-based manufactures and a larger share for elaborately transformed manufactures. This is a favourable shift in emphasis since such technologically sophisticated manufactures have been amongst the fastest growing world markets.     

养老金资产的本土化投资偏好分析——OECD国家的投资经验对中国的启示

随着世界各国养老保障体系的完善,养老金资产规模迅速扩大,各国都将规模庞大的养老金资产投资于金融市场进行保值增值。从OECD国家和新兴市场国家两个方面分析了OECD国家养老金资产在进行投资时存在本土化投资偏好的原因。为了借鉴国外养老金投资管理的经验,逐步完善我国养老保障体系,提出一些有关投资管理的政策建议。     

大宗商品价格变化与汇率波动的动态关系——兼论中国外汇储备结构调整

2008年全球金融危机以来,大宗商品价格变化与一些大宗商品输出国货币汇率的波动态势较为一致。这是偶然巧合还是必然联系?本文利用VEC向量误差修正模型等对相关数据进行了实证分析后表明,2008年以来,大宗商品价格上升对澳大利亚、加拿大等大宗商品输出国货币汇率有正面推动作用。基于此,本文建议:为降低外汇储备风险,中国需要适时增加大宗商品输出国货币和资产在外汇储备中的比重,同时相应减持美元和美元资产。     

中国对美出口贸易利益的转化与维护

中国在对美贸易中创造的巨额贸易顺差和外汇收益并没能通过有效的进口战略转化为国民经济增长及福利改善所需要的物质资料(包括技术设备、能源材料、数据信息和差异化商品等),而是更多地停留在货币资产的层面或者用来购买美国国债。随着美元的持续贬值及近期美元主权信用等级的下调,我国的外汇资产价值缩水的可能性越来越大。而这种缩水不仅仅是一种账面价值的亏损,更是我国对美出口贸易利益的真实流失。因此,中国应该在出口利益创造的基础上,积极利用贸易、投资、金融等手段加强对既得利益的转化与维护。     

美国第四轮量化宽松政策的实施背景、影响及中国的对策

为了刺激经济增长、降低就业率和防止通货紧缩等,美联储推出了第四轮量化宽松货币政策。如果承诺机制、资产负债表扩张机制和资产负债表结构改变机制等传导机制能够发挥作用,那么第四轮量化宽松货币政策可以通过金融稳定效应、经济刺激效应、财政效应和退出效应等实现非常规货币政策操作的预期。美联储推出的第四轮量化宽松货币政策势必会带来一定的影响,如美元资产缩水、大宗商品和原材料上涨、全球性的货币性通货膨胀、汇率战争和全球性的财富再分配效应等。为了应对QE4带来的影响,中国需要从外汇资产管理、通货膨胀预期管理、人民币汇率机制、货币政策制定等方面做出相应安排。     

Hot Money Flows,Cycles in Primary Commodity Prices,and Financial Control in Developing Countries

Because the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuses on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies on the rest of the world. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on short-term dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into Emerging Markets (EM) with convertible currencies. When each EM central bank intervenes to prevent its individual currency from appreciating, collectively they lose monetary control, inflate, and cause an upsurge in primary commodity prices internationally. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a return of the hot money to the United States (and to other industrial countries) as commercial banks stop lending to foreign exchange speculators. World prices of primary products then collapse. African countries with exchange controls and less convertible currencies are not so attractive to currency speculators. Thus, they are less vulnerable than EM to the ebb and flow of hot money. However, African countries are more vulnerable to cycles in primary commodity prices because food is a greater proportion of their consumption, and—being less industrialized—they are more vulnerable to fluctuations in prices of their commodity exports. Supply-side shocks, such as a crop failure anywhere in the world, can affect the price of an individual commodity. But joint fluctuations in the prices of all primary products—minerals, energy, cereals, and so on—reflect monetary conditions in the world economy as determined by the ebb and flow of hot money from the United States, and increasingly from other industrial countries with near-zero interest rates.