德国国家碳排放权交易体系初探

为落实减排承诺,实现2050年碳中和目标,德国联邦政府立法明确从2021年起引入国家碳排放权交易体系,针对未纳入欧盟碳市场的交通和建筑领域实施二氧化碳排放定价。本文通过介绍政策背景、交易基础和各要素情况,对比欧盟碳排放交易制度,初步探析德国即将实施的国家碳交易体系。     

Fundamental Determinants of Real Estate Prices: A Panel Study of German Regions

This paper aims at establishing empirical facts on the fundamental determinants of real estate prices. It contributes to the literature by analysing a unique panel dataset covering a wide range of real estate market data and other economic variables for nearly 100 German cities. Several robust fundamental determinants are identified, among them the supply-side factors of construction activity and housing stock as well as the demand-side factors of apartment rents, market size, age structure, local infrastructure and rental prices. Results suggest that these factors are robustly linked to fundamental real estate prices and thus can be used to detect misalignments of market prices.     

德国高等教育机构改革及对我国的启示

德国高等教育机构拥有优秀的历史传统,是科学研究与开发的重要基地.在经济全球一体化、文化多元化的趋势下,德国已完全实现高等教育的普及.联邦政府所实行的一系列改革,对高等教育机构的教学和科研产生了不可磨灭的影响.文章以2012年德国权威机构EFI发布的《德国研究、创新与科技成效2012》报告为依据,对21世纪以来德国高等教育机构改革进行分析,并为我国高等教育机构发展带来启示.     

Dynamic adjustment and long-run equilibria: Panel data estimates for the East German states

The economic development in East Germany after unification shows both, success and failure. In the early nineties wages and productivity increased fast; later on catching up faded out. A central question from a policy viewpoint is whether this fading out indicates a reduction of the adjustment speed or an equilibrium gap. This points towards a stationarity analysis of differences between East and West Germany. Our paper presents panel data estimates for the East German states for wages, productivity, competitiveness and unemployment. The results reveal that the adjustment was fast, but the equilibrium gaps are large.     

Heterogeneity in the Relationship between Happiness and Age: Evidence from the German Socio‐Economic Panel

This paper studies the evolution of life satisfaction over the life course in Germany. It clarifies the causal interpretation of the econometric model by discussing the choice of control variables and the underidentification between age, cohort and time effects. The empirical part analyzes the distribution of life satisfaction over the life course at the aggregated, subgroup and individual level. To the findings: On average, life satisfaction is mildly decreasing up to age 55 followed by a hump shape with a maximum at 70. The analysis at the lower levels suggests that people differ in their life satisfaction trends, whereas the hump shape after age 55 is robust. No important differences between men and women are found. In contrast, education groups differ in their trends: highly educated people become happier over the life cycle, where life satisfaction decreases for less‐educated people.     

Life Satisfaction and Longevity: Longitudinal Evidence from the German Socio‐Economic Panel

We investigate the relationship between life satisfaction and mortality using the German Socio‐Economic Panel, which allows us to follow around 15,000 people for more than two decades. Seventeen per cent of the respondents surveyed in 1984 died between 1984 and 2007. After controlling for initial health conditions, we find that people's life satisfaction at the beginning of the survey is deeply linked to their life expectancy: a ten per cent increase in life satisfaction is connected to a four per cent decline in the probability of death in the period studied. The relationship between life satisfaction and mortality is stronger for the married and the men but life satisfaction does not matter for the women. We find some suggestive evidence that links between life satisfaction and mortality could be operating via accidents and mental health. Finally, we show that the life satisfaction measured in 1984 extends to the rest of life: people who were happier in 1984 more frequently experienced high levels of happiness in the rest of their lives. These results suggest that life satisfaction is a powerful risk‐factor for later mortality and is more predictive of mortality than a host of other variables.     

教育错配对工资的惩罚效应——来自中国微观面板数据的证据

教育错配如何影响工资?文章基于2010?2014年中国家庭追踪调查面板数据,基于固定效应模型和工具变量估计,测度了教育错配产生的工资惩罚效应及其产生的理论机制.研究表明:过度教育员工每过度一年将承受1.4%的工资惩罚,教育不足员工将获得2.4%的工资红利.工作所需教育水平是40岁以上员工工资的主要决定因素;随着任职生涯的推进,教育错配会得到改善;教育错配与人力资本之间存在补偿机制.文章的政策涵义是:教育主管部门应从市场需求端改革教育体系,提供市场需要的相应技能毕业生.高校应主动顺应社会主义市场经济需求,及时有效地调整学科专业结构和人才培养结构.企业应建立人才识别和多层奖惩机制,充分释放过度教育者的劳动生产率水平.政府应加强就业指导工作,帮助求职者精准定位与其教育水平相匹配的工作,以减少搜寻成本.     

集群式创新对高技术企业研发绩效的影响——基于国家自主创新综合示范区高技术产业面板数据的实证研究

文章基于随机前沿分析模型(SFA)模型,以中国自主创新综合示范区(以下简称自创区)高技术产业面板数据为检验对象,就集群式创新对自创区高技术企业研发绩效的影响进行了实证研究,研究发现:这种影响是正向的,企业的知识吸收转化能力越强、互动强度越大,这种正向作用越明显;与国有独资企业企业相比,这种正向作用在混合所有制企业中体现得更加充分.针对以上结论,提出集群式创新政策建议,以期为利用集群式创新提升自主创新能力和高技术研发效率提供参考.     

关于中国高校扩招和教育大众化几个社会经济问题探析

文章从高校扩招存在的问题分析入手 ,从国家对高等教育所能给予的财力支撑、社会的经济结构为大学生所能提供的就业岗位出发 ,认为我国高等教育已经超越经济发展速度 ,指出只有结合着解决扩招中暴露的教育中的根本问题 ,稳步地适当地扩招 ,兼顾速度与质量 ,借鉴发达国家的成功之道 ,思考出一条适合我国国情的路子 ,才能使扩招顺利的发展下去 ,完成教育大众化的目标     

The cost-effectiveness of solifenacin vs. trospium in the treatment of patients with overactive bladder in the German National Health Service

Objective:

To carry out a cost–utility analysis comparing initial treatment of patients with overactive bladder (OAB) with solifenacin 5?mg/day versus either trospium 20?mg twice a day or trospium 60?mg/day from the perspective of the German National Health Service.

Methods:

A decision analytic model with a 3 month cycle was developed to follow a cohort of OAB patients treated with either solifenacin or trospium during a 1 year period. Costs and utilities were accumulated as patients transitioned through the four cycles in the model. Some of the solifenacin patients were titrated from 5?mg to 10?mg/day at 3 months. Utility values were obtained from the published literature and pad use was based on a US resource utilization study. Adherence rates for individual treatments were derived from a United Kingdom general practitioner database review. The change in the mean number of urgency urinary incontinence episodes/day from after 12 weeks was the main outcome measure. Baseline effectiveness values for solifenacin and trospium were calculated using the Poisson distribution. Patients who failed second-line therapy were referred to a specialist visit. Results were expressed in terms of incremental cost–utility ratios.

Results:

Total annual costs for solifenacin, trospium 20?mg and trospium 60?mg were €970.01, €860.05 and €875.05 respectively. Drug use represented 43%, 28% and 29% of total costs and pad use varied between 45% and 57%. Differences between cumulative utilities were small but favored solifenacin (0.6857 vs. 0.6802 to 0.6800). The baseline incremental cost–effectiveness ratio ranged from €16,657 to €19,893 per QALY.

Limitations:

The difference in cumulative utility favoring solifenacin was small (0.0055–0.0057 QALYs). A small absolute change in the cumulative utilities can have a marked impact on the overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and care should be taken when interpreting the results.

Conclusion:

Solifenacin would appear to be cost-effective with an ICER of no more than €20,000/QALY. However, small differences in utility between the alternatives means that the results are sensitive to adjustments in the values of the assigned utilities, effectiveness and discontinuation rates.     

基于面板数据的黑龙江省旅游经济效应分异研究

选取黑龙江省13个地级市2000-2010年国内旅游收入、国际旅游收入和各地区生产总值三个指标的面板数据,运用面板协整方法度量黑龙江省各地区旅游收入与经济增长之间的长期协整关系,并对二者关系做格兰杰因果检验,在此基础上揭示黑龙江省旅游经济效应的内部分异规律.研究表明:长期内,黑龙江省内旅游经济效应存在显著地域差异,旅游发展对黑龙江省及哈尔滨、牡丹江等6地市的经济增长起到一定的促进作用,但是带动力度较弱,国内旅游收入对经济增长的作用更明显.同时,哈尔滨等4地市经济增长是国内旅游收入的Granger原因,其经济增长可以推动国内旅游的发展;黑河的国内旅游收入与经济增长互为Granger原因,表明黑河经济增长与国内旅游互相促进.     

基于客户关系的中小企业知识学习研究

中小企业通过与客户间的知识学习，从新产品开发、技术独特性、效率三个方面提高了自身的绩效。因此，研究中小企业与客户间的知识学习具有非常重要的意义。在对浙江省中小企业调研的基础上，指出目前向客户进行学习存在的问题，同时建议应当从改变传统竞争观念，培育与客户间的社会资本，建立有效的学习平台三个方面来更有效地向客户学习。     

工程测量中的测绘技术

随着测绘仪器和测绘新技术的不断革新和发展,工程测量学科也得到了飞速的发展。科学技术的进步及先进测量仪器和技术的广泛应用,促进了地形测量向自动化和数字化方向发展,数字化测图技术应运而生,数字化测图以其特有的高自动化、全数字化、高精度的显著优势而具有无限广阔的发展前景。     

Productivity Dynamics in a Large Sample of Countries: A Panel Study

Recent research shows that productivity differences are more important than differences in accumulation rates in explaining per capita income differences across countries. So far static differences in productivity have been mainly computed and analyzed in large samples of countries. This paper extends the research by focusing on productivity dynamics . It uses the panel approach to compute productivity indices for a large sample of countries for two time periods, namely an initial period of 1960–75 and a subsequent period of 1975–90. This allows computation of ordinal and cardinal changes in productivity between the two periods. The results show considerable variation in productivity dynamics across countries. The task ahead is to find out what accounts for the observed dynamics.     

高等学校在国家创新体系中的作用

高等学校是国家创新体系的重要组成部分,研究其在国家创新体系中的作用对于创建创新型国家和高校自身发展都具有积极意义。以高等学校获得国家科技奖励三大奖的成果数量为基础,运用相关性分析和回归分析方法,分别对高等学校在知识创新系统、技术创新系统、知识传播系统和知识应用系统中的作用进行了深入的分析。分析结果表明,高等学校在国家创新体系中发挥着重要的主体核心作用,且其影响力逐年增加。     

Openness and the Efficiency of FDI: A Panel Stochastic Production Frontier Study

This paper uses a stochastic translog production frontier to estimate technical inefficiency indices whose conditional mean is specified as a function of FDI and its interaction with openness of the economy. The model is estimated using an annual panel of 46 countries for the years, 1981–2001. The results suggest that increased FDI increases potential output in both developed and developing countries with the effect being more profound in the former. It is also found that increased FDI reduces technical inefficiencies the more open is the economy but that this effect holds only for developed economies. Thus qualified support is found for the “Bhagwati hypothesis” as the results reveal that the efficiency–enhancing effect of FDI depends not only on openness but also on the degree of development of the host country.

中国投资产出效率演变中的消费抑制——基于国民收入总需求方程的省际面板数据分析

基于国民收入总需求方程的理论研究表明,投资产出效率与消费-投资之比呈倒U型关系,其最优值取决于消费-投资之比与投资增长率的动态均衡.投资增长率是影响投资产出效率变动趋势的关键因素,而消费抑制减弱了投资驱动对经济增长的贡献.1992-2007年中国的省级面板数据研究表明,近五年84%的省区年度消费率低于最优的消费率水平,而且消费率有逐渐下降的趋势.因此,消费与投资的结构优化有助于投资产出效率的提升.     

中央国有企业利润上缴与使用去向探究

财政部会同国资委发布的《中央企业国有资本收益收取管理办法》,规定了央企红利上缴的比例,但在红利收取过程中会伴随怎样的问题,红利又应用在何处才能达到资源的优化配置。本文首先分析了央企红利上缴的必要性及红利的归属问题,其次阐述了国有资本收益管理的现行政策及实践效果,第三部分针对现行政策存在的弊端以及红利收取过程中可能伴随的问题,提出了相应的对策,最后站在民生和国企共赢的基础上分析了央企红利的使用去向．     

中国区域金融发展差异分析——基于空间面板数据模型的研究

利用空间统计的Moran指数和空间面板数据模型,对中国28个省域的金融发展差异进行计量分析。结果发现:在1992—2008年间,中国金融发展在省域间存在较强的空间溢出效应。从区域内部来看,在同一时期,中国东部和中部的金融发展在区域内部亦存在较强的空间溢出效应,而西部内部省域间却存在显著的空间依赖效应。     

Firm survival in the German automobile industry

In this paper, methods of duration analysis are applied to investigate determinants of firm survival in the German automobile industry during the period 1886–1939. A new comprehensive data set has been assembled in order to secure data comparable to that for the US automobile industry. Our results show that the forces shaping the survival pattern of firms over the life cycle are quite similar in both countries, i.e. early entry in the life cycle and prior experience are associated with a lower risk of exit. This finding holds equally when parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric methods are applied.We thank the participants of the 10th conference of the International Schumpeter Society in Milan, June 2004, and the 31st EARIE conference in Berlin, September 2004, for helpful discussion. We also thank two anonymous referees for their comments. All remaining errors are in our responsibility.