Foreign Direct Investment and Real Exchange Rate Interlinkages

This paper examines theoretically and empirically the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and the real exchange rate. It is found that in large countries with freely floating currencies, such as the USA, the UK and Japan, causality runs from the real exchange rate to FDI. These results are consistent with the predictions of models of financial behavior. Causality runs both ways in small countries with fixed or quasi fixed currencies, such as the EU countries. These results are consistent with models, which emphasize on trade integration. It is shown that a weaker euro will not have uniform effects on FDI inflows across the unified Europe.     

Foreign Direct Investment in R&D and Exchange Rate Uncertainty

The current practice in the literature on the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on foreign direct investment is to consider exchange rate volatility. In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of considering also covariances and apply the theoretical arguments to a UK industry panel of FDI in R&D. An increase in the covariance of the euro and sterling, which would be a certain consequence of the UK’s entry into European Monetary Union, will increase foreign R&D into the UK. Increased volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate tends to relocate R&D investment from the Euro Area into the UK.     

外商直接投资与技术外溢效应——基于分位数回归法

基于分位数回归法。本文考察了外资对中国工业部门的技术外溢效应。研究结果表明：人力资本、投资环境的改善有利于FDI的技术外溢,而市场竞争、技术差距和经济开放度的提高则不利于FDI的技术外溢：人力资本和投资环境的正向影响分别在内资工业产出条件分布的高端和低端最为显著：经济开放度和技术差距的负向影响分别在条件分布的低端和高端时最为显著;而市场竞争对外溢的负向影响则在条件分布的中间位置时最显著。     

出口、对外直接投资与企业的异质性研究

出口和对外直接投资是一国企业进入国外市场的两种重要模式，本文通过建立一个简单的理论模型来分析企业对这两种进入模式的选择问题。本文将企业异质性引入模型分析，同时将企业的R＆D活动作为内生变量来进行研究。在理论分析的基础上，本文结合中国出口和对外直接投资发展的实际情况提出了相关政策建议。     

Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis

In this article, we analyze the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports, using Spanish quarterly data for the period 1977–1998, by means of Granger causality tests in a cointegration framework. Our results point to the existence of a relationship of complementarity between both variables, with Granger causality running in the short run from outward FDI to exports, and bilateral Granger causality in the long run.     

跨国公司生产率差异和国际直接投资战略选择

本文从跨国公司生产率差异的角度讨论不同的跨国公司选择不同国际直接投资战略的原因。生产率最高的跨国公司会选择混合型国际直接投资战略,生产率较高的跨国公司会选择水平型国际直接投资战略,生产率较低的跨国公司会选择垂直型国际直接投资战略。运输成本、不同国家工资的差异和国际直接投资的固定成本等因素会影响跨国公司国际直接投资战略的选择。     

外商来华直接投资与中国企业对外投资的差异分析

中国的"引进来"和"走出去"是发展失衡还是渐趋平衡?本文从投资规模、投资产业、投资形式和投资政策四个方面进行了分析。     

Economic Liberalization and Conditional Volatility of Exchange Rate in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Asymmetric GARCH Analysis

Abstract: For small open economies, an understanding of movements in the exchange rate is imperative in analyzing trade and capital flows. In addition, reliable forecasting of exchange rate volatility is important in risk‐taking assessment and investment decision‐making, both of which are critical to long‐term growth. Using an asymmetric GARCH‐type approach, this paper examines the implications of economic liberalization on the stochastic behavior of the exchange rate series in a sample of sub‐Sahara African (SSA) countries over the 1970–2004 period. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility is variable, and is less volatile under fixed exchange rate regime (pre‐economic liberalization) and higher under flexible regime (post‐economic liberalization), that is, it is asymmetric. For most of the countries, the EGARCH and TGARCH models are robust to parameter stability and gives better forecasting performance compared to the standard GARCH model.     

外商直接投资对我国就业效应的分析

外商直接投资的进入在我国直接或间接地产生了就业效应,文章阐述了就业效应产生的理论基础和作用机理,并从就业数量、质量、产业和区位分布等四方面分析了这种效应在我国的具体表现。在此分析结果的基础上,引出了对增加外商直接投资在我国就业正效应的思考。     

汇率波动与对外直接投资:基于面板门限模型的分析

20世纪90年代以来,全球对外直接投资流量呈现爆发式增长,日益成为促进世界经济复苏与增长的主要驱动力之一。传统理论可以解释对外直接投资流量的长期增长,但对其短期的剧烈波动却解释乏力。文献中普遍认为汇率波动是对外直接投资的重要决定因素,但二者的关系在理论和实证方面都没有取得一致结论。文章利用2009~2016年期间21个主要对外直接投资国与其23个投资东道国之间的双边对外直接投资流量数据,通过建立和估计面板门限回归模型,实证分析了汇率波动对OFDI的影响。结果表明,OFDI和汇率之间存在阈值效应,在汇率波动幅度较小的情况下,汇率波动可能是一个将生产转移到低成本地区的机会,其与对外直接投资之间存在正向关系;当汇率波动较大时,汇率波动被视为一种风险而不利于对外直接投资。     

外商直接投资与环境污染——基于联立方程的实证检验

本文尝试通过分析FDI对各经济变量的不同影响渠道,全面测度FDI对环境污染的影响。为了更好地理解FDI流入与中国环境污染之间的关系,文章建立了联立方程来刻画各变量之间的不同影响,包括考虑FDI与经济增长的相互影响和FDI对环境监管的影响等。同时,文章使用中国217个城市2003～2006年的工业污染数据进行实证检验,结果表明,FDI通过对经济增长、产业结构和环境污染治理的影响最终有利于我国的工业污染治理和环境状况改善。因此,引进外资要注重引进国外先进的技术和环境标准,积极吸收利用外资先进的生产工艺和绿色的生产流程,要提高资源利用的效率,促进环境保护措施的有力实施,实现中国经济的可持续发展。     

Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness in Sub‐Saharan Economies: A Panel Data Granger Causality Analysis

This study uses annual balanced panel data for 25 sub‐Saharan African economies over the period 1977‐2009 to investigate the Granger causality relationship between trade openness and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the region. We took advantage of recent developments in econometric testing techniques for Granger noncausality heterogeneous panels that takes into consideration the effects of cross section dependence across the units of the panel data set to analyse the trade–FDI nexus in the region. The empirical result of this study reveals a bidirectional causal relationship between trade openness and foreign direct investment in sub‐Saharan economies. Concurrently, African countries should devote more emphasis for the promotion and attraction of FDI in order to expand their productive capacity to produce and export; in this way, by addressing supply‐side constraints, FDI will have positive multiplier effects on trade.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: An Empirical Investigation from Cross‐country Comparison

Abstract: This paper investigates empirically the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of six countries over the quarterly period of 1980–2005. The impact of a volatility term on trade is examined by using an Engle‐Granger residual‐based cointegrating technique. The major results show that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate, approximating exchange‐rate uncertainty, exert a significant negative effect on trade for South Korea, Pakistan, Poland and South Africa and a positive effect for Turkey and Hungary in the long run.     

欧元汇率波动对欧元区进出口贸易影响的异质性及其原因研究

本文使用面板数据的变系数固定效应研究方法,利用1999～2012年的季度数据,实证研究了12个欧元区国家与美国的进出口贸易受欧元汇率波动影响的程度及其异质性。本文发现,在欧盟创始国的范围内,汇率波动效应的异质性不显著,但随着欧元区的不断扩大,汇率波动效应的异质性加强了。异质性的原因是欧元区各国在经济发展水平、产品竞争力、金融市场发达程度和经济一体化程度等方面的差异。     

外商直接投资激励对产业升级影响的分析

FDI如何影响东道国的产业发展?有关产业结构与FDI之间关系的理解不仅不充分,而且还存在许多争论,比如"促进论"和"抑制论",等等。本文试图研究FDI激励政策在产业结构升级中的影响机制。本文的模型表明,FDI激励政策对产业升级的影响取决于两方面因素,一是东道国与投资母国之间产业技术差距,二是东道国产业的市场结构。此外,本文还有一个重要发现,外资企业的中间产品需求及导致的中间产品本地化生产,是促进产业结构升级的关键因素。     

Mean‐reverting and Asymmetric Volatility Switching Properties of Stock Price Index,Exchange Rate and Foreign Capital in Taiwan*

The main purpose of the present study is to explore the relationships among stock price index, exchange rate and foreign capital in Taiwan and to detect whether the mean‐reverting and asymmetric volatility switching properties exist in these markets. The multivariate asymmetric nonlinear smooth transition generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic in mean model is used in this study. The empirical results indicate that overbuy and oversell rates of foreign capital influence the movements of the stock price index and the exchange rate. All three conditional means exhibit asymmetric mean‐reverting behavior, with negative returns reverting quicker than positive returns in terms of both speed and magnitude. The empirical results also demonstrate that the conditional heteroskedasticities of these markets are asymmetric, generating different volatility persistence under a prior positive and negative return shock.     

Research on Spillover Effect of Foreign Direct Investment

The paper figure out there is potential for significant spillover effects from FDI into host countries. The paper summarizes some of the aggregate evidence of technology and productivity spillovers from FDI, and we focus more closely on the effects of FDI on human capital development in the host countries, both through linkages and various kinds of training, Section 4 is the summarization and conclusion of the paper.     

中国外商直接投资中的撤资问题探析

随着中国外商直接投资的增长,外商撤资也在逐渐增加。但数据显示,目前中国外商撤资的规模不大,也未发现有大规模撤资的趋势。造成中国外商撤资的原因多种多样,总体而言,小规模的外商撤资并未给中国经济带来太大的负面作用,某些类型的外商撤资还可能对中国经济的发展具有积极作用。基于此,中国政府一方面应采取各种政策措施预防外商的大规模撤资,另一方面要做好外商撤资后的各种应对工作。     

随机性、市场干预与外汇市场有效性——对人民币汇率的动态分析

外汇市场的有效性程度是考察汇率形成机制是否灵活与合理的重要途径。本文运用近似熵的分析方法研究了汇率改革前后人民币外汇市场有效性的动态变化。研究发现,汇改使人民币对日元和欧元间外汇市场的有效性下降,而人民币对美元间外汇市场的有效性在增加。同时,央行对外汇市场干预的强度越大,人民币外汇市场的有效性就越低。经验表明,参考一篮子汇率制度的实施是提高人民币外汇市场有效性的一个重要途径。     

Exchange Rate Regime,Real Exchange Rate,Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Morocco

Abstract: We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000 (annual data). We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (the NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows (exports and imports). The misalignments also affect the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a reduction in Morocco exports, to an increase in Morocco imports, and globally to a deterioration of the trade balance with the European Union. On the other hand, neither the volatility nor the misalignments have an effect on foreign direct investment in favor of Morocco.