我国人口深度老龄化与老年照护服务需求发展趋势

基于我国人口结构发展趋势预测,2022年我国老龄化率将达到14%,进入深度老龄化社会;到2030年前后老龄化率将达到20%,进入超级老龄化社会。随着人口老龄化和老年人口高龄化不断上升,我国失能半失能老人规模及其比例将由2020年的4564万人和17.11%上升到2030年的6953万人和17.44%,至2050年进一步上升到12606万人和22%。失能半失能老人规模的快速扩大,将引发老年照护服务需求激增,按照90%失能半失能老人由家庭照护、10%由机构照护估算,照护机构护工需求将由2020年的33.8万人增加到2030年的52.2万人和2050年的101万人。考虑到家庭小型化趋势和“421”家庭普遍化趋势,未来由社区、家政、养老机构和医疗护理机构提供照护服务的失能半失能老人比例将会不断提高,老年照护所需护工的规模还会成倍增加,当前的护理人才教育培训机制远不能满足未来老年照护服务的需求。满足未来规模不断扩大、质量要求不断提高的多层次照护服务需求,亟须健全基本养老服务体系,大力发展多元化老年照护服务体系,切实做好护理人才中长期培育发展规划,不断完善老年健康服务体系。     

User Fee Abolition and the Demand for Public Health Care

This research examines the effect of the abolition of user fees in South Africa, a policy implemented in 1994 for uninsured children under the age of six and the elderly uninsured, as well as pregnant and nursing mothers. The analysis focuses on the implementation of the policy and the use of curative public healthcare services by children following strict and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs. The estimates point to statistically insignificant average and local average policy effects, even though the policy appears to have been implemented reasonably effectively, albeit imperfectly. In other words, the policy did not, on average, affect the use of curative public healthcare, at least for those children who should have benefited from the policy.     

Socioeconomic Determinants of Child Health: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

This paper characterizes the socioeconomic determinants of child health using height‐for‐age z‐score (HAZ), a long‐run measure of chronic nutritional deficiency. We construct a panel data that follows children between ages 3 and 59 months in 1993 through the 1997 and 2000 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey. We use this data to identify the various child‐level, household‐level and community‐level factors that affect children's health. Our findings indicate that household income has a large and statistically significant role in explaining improvements in HAZ. We also find a strong positive association between parental height and HAZ. At the community level, we find that provision of electricity and the availability of paved roads are positively associated with improvements in HAZ. Finally, in comparison to community‐level factors, household‐level characteristics play a large role in explaining the variation in HAZ. These findings suggest that policies that address the demand‐side constraints have greater potential to improve children's health outcomes in the future.     

秀山妇幼保健院 保障妇幼健康六十载

梦回边城听春雨,闲庭信步看秀山;妇幼健康千古事,今日正写锦绣篇。秀山县妇幼保健院就坐落在边城秀山这片充满希望的土地上。从蹒跚学步到步履生风,秀山县妇幼保健院一路走来。当春天脚步渐近,用娓娓的声音讲述生命勃发的动人旋律时,秀山妇幼人满怀热忱、斗志昂扬,朝着新的目标奋进。     

The Effect of Child Care Costs on the Employment and Welfare Recipiency of Single Mothers

This paper considers the effect of child care costs on two labor market outcomes for single mothers—whether to work for pay and whether to receive welfare. Hourly child care expenditures are estimated using data drawn from the 1992 and 1993 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). These expenditures are then used to predict the probability of welfare recipiency and employment. While the direction and significance of key variables are robust to changes in specification, the quantitative results are found to be sensitive to identification restrictions. All results show a substantial positive effect of child care costs on welfare recipiency, with the child care price elasticity of welfare recipiency varying from 1.0 to 1.9. Similarly, we find a significant negative effect of child care price on employment with elasticity estimates from -.3 to -1.1, showing that controlling for the welfare choice does not reduce the price elasticity of employment found in other studies.     

The Impact of R&D Intensity on Demand for Specialist Auditor Services*

The audit fee research literature argues that auditors' costs of developing brand name reputations, including top‐tier designation and recognition for industry specialization, are compensated through audit fee premiums. Audited firms reduce agency costs by engaging high‐quality auditors who monitor the levels and reporting of discretionary expenditures and accruals. In this study we examine whether specialist auditor choice is associated with a particular discretionary expenditure ‐ research and development (R&D). For a large sample of U.S. companies from a range of industries, we find strong evidence that R&D intensity is positively associated with firms' choices of auditors who specialize in auditing R&D contracts. Additionally, we find that R&D intensive firms tend to appoint top‐tier auditors. We use simultaneous equations to control for interrelationships between dependent variables in addition to single‐equation ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models. Our results are particularly strong in tests using samples of small firms whose auditor choice is not constrained by the need to appoint a top‐tier auditor to ensure the auditor's financial independence from the client.     

农户信贷需求的行为逻辑

文章通过梳理舒尔茨的“理性小农”命题、恰亚诺夫学派的“道义小农”命题、黄宗智的小农命题和徐勇的“社会化小农”命题等国内外关于农户经济行为经典文献,分析指出处于传统小农经济向市场经济转轨时期的我国绝大多数农户在为家庭正常运转或者为生存而生产,基本可以归结为生存型小农,与其相适应的是救助性的农贷制度。     

新疆农村医疗卫生事业供求状况的实证分析

改革开放以来新疆经济社会发生了巨大变化,但是主要依靠市场机制、实行经济效率优先的经济体制改革也造成了严重的社会经济发展的不均衡。特别是新疆农村医疗卫生事业的发展远远落后于城市,公共财政对农村医疗卫生的支持不足是重要因素。因此,通过对新疆农村医疗卫生财政支持现状的分析,可以为今后政府的公共决策提供依据和参考。     

The Demand for Vices in Malaysia: An Ethnic Comparison Using Household Expenditure Data

A trivariate Tobit system is estimated to investigate the demand for vices (tobacco, alcohol, and gambling) in Malaysia. Estimation results, segmented by ethnicity, suggest that years of formal education, occupation type, and household head’s age negatively affect both the likelihood to spend and the overall amounts spent on tobacco by all Malaysians. Additionally, while higher income Malay households are more likely to spend and have higher tobacco expenditures, affluent Chinese and households of other races are more likely to spend and to spend more on smoking, drinking and gambling. Male-headed households of all races are more likely to spend and also spend more on smoking, drinking and gambling than female-led households.     

代际家务支持对家庭二胎生育状况的影响

利用CFPS2016的横截面数据,分析了老年父母提供家务支持对子女家庭二胎生育状况的影响。研究结果表明：首先,老年父母帮忙料理家务会显著提高子女家庭二胎的生育率4.9%,进行工具变量再检验系数增加至7%,且具有稳健性。其次,老年父母提供代际家务支持对儿子家庭二胎生育的影响大于女儿。最后,农村家庭的代际家务支持对子女生育二胎的影响大于城市家庭的影响。从代际家务支持影响子女家庭二胎生育状况的角度,验证了老年人的家庭价值,也从侧面说明老年人提供的代际支持是提高生育率的有效途径。     

Socioeconomic Status,Religion and Health in India: an Examination of Chronic and Communicable Diseases

The literature on socioeconomic status and health suggests that those in higher positions have better health, and those in lower positions have worse health. There is little evidence of an SES gradient in non-industrialized countries, however, and it is uncertain whether the health gradient established in many Western countries would apply in developing countries. In this study, the authors examine patterns in health outcomes by caste and religion in India, a developing country. Results from a nationally representative sample, the Indian Human Development Survey, suggest that while high SES social groups report less communicable disease, they report a higher prevalence of chronic diseases than low SES groups. This study demonstrates the need to examine diseases of affluence among high SES groups in developing countries while also identifying the particular health concerns that are prevalent among low SES groups.     

种植大户对农业生产性服务业需求满意度研究

农业生产性服务业是提高农业劳动生产率而向农业生产活动提供中间投入服务的产业,对农业发展具有至关重要的作用。文章通过对江苏高邮市、仪征市和溧阳市调查研究,发现种植大户对农资服务、销售服务比较满意,对资金服务、技术服务、保险服务不满意。不满意的原因是农业生产性服务意识薄弱、服务水平低、服务机构设置不合理等,因此,要提高农业生产性服务的水平,应着力于促进信息化和科学化建设、完善农业服务机制、加强农业流通体系等方面来支持和推动。     

Early Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Care Access,Risky Health Behaviors,and Self-Assessed Health

The goal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was to achieve nearly universal health insurance coverage through a combination of mandates, subsidies, marketplaces, and Medicaid expansions, most of which took effect in 2014. We use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to examine the impacts of the ACA on health care access, risky health behaviors, and self-assessed health after two years. We estimate difference-in-difference-in-differences models that exploit variation in treatment intensity from state participation in the Medicaid expansion and pre-ACA uninsured rates. Results suggest that the ACA led to sizeable improvements in access to health care in both Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states, with the gains being larger in expansion states along some dimensions. However, we do not find clear effects on risky behaviors or self-assessed health.     

The Effect of Reimbursement on the Intensity of Hospital Services

We examine how hospital treatment intensity is affected by an exogenous change in average reimbursement for an admission. Theory predicts that treatment intensity would be most affected for highly profitable services but unaffected for unprofitable services. We use Medicare inpatient data from 11 states for 16 disease categories that vary in the generosity of reimbursement to test this prediction. Using the coefficients from quantile regressions, we calculate a difference-in-difference estimate of the effect of the Balanced Budget Act (BBA) of 1998, comparing the pre- and post-BBA change in treatment intensity at high Medicare share hospitals to low Medicare share hospitals. We find that not-for-profit hospitals cut treatment intensity at the 50th, 75th, and 95th quantiles only for generously reimbursed services. Intensity at the 25th percentile was unaffected, regardless of generosity. We did not measure a statistically significant response at for-profit or public hospitals to the BBA.