Sri Lanka’s Rural Non-Farm Economy: Removing Constraints to Pro-Poor Growth

We use a survey of rural enterprises from Sri Lanka to explore characteristics of the informal non-farm sector and identify obstacles to its expansion and productivity. Value added in this sector amounts to 80% of agricultural GDP participating households’ incomes are significantly higher than those of households who do not participate. Barriers to entry are low and the impact of non-farm development on inequality modest, implying a large potential contribution to growth and poverty reduction. Infrastructure constraints negatively affect new startups, investment in, and productivity of existing enterprises, with small enterprises being particularly affected.     

Flying Ducks? Girls’ Schooling in Rural Vietnam

Using the Vietnam Living Standards Survey 1992–93, this paper has found significant gender differences in children's education – parents are less likely to keep girls in school. The method of Doiron and Riddell (1994) is applied to decompose the predicted probability gap of being in school between boys and girls. Their method takes into account the nonlinear nature of the probit model. The decomposition result suggests that most observed gender differences in the predicted probability gap may be driven by discrimination, which may be due to Confucian values. Girls are colloquially referred to as 'flying ducks' as they are regarded as a loss to the family upon marriage. Cultural values could shape the parents' perception of the rate of the children's income transfer to the parents. If the cultural norms dictate that sons provide old–age security to the parents, while daughters marry and provide no support to the parents, parents may not be willing to invest as much in girls' education relative to boys. Promotion of gender equality and reduction of the reliance on sons in providing old–age security to parents are necessary to ensure that girls have equal opportunities to receive education.
JEL classification : I 2; J 16; J 71     

An Examination of Subnational Growth in Nigeria: 1999‐2012

I use satellite imagery on night‐time lights to measure growth across states and local government areas in Nigeria since the return of democracy in 1999. The data suggest that states in southern Nigeria have grown faster on average than states in the north. Using the Ordinary Least Squares, I estimate a relationship between change in night lights and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Africa and use the coefficients to estimate GDP growth for states and local government areas in Nigeria over the period. Finally, I evaluate the effects of violence on growth in Plateau, Yobe and Borno states. I find that the crisis in Plateau state has resulted in slower growth compared with other states in the region. I also show that Yobe and Borno states had performed worse than other states in the north even before the outbreak of violence related to the Boko Haram sect.     

Flying Ducks? Girls’ Schooling in Rural Vietnam: A Revisit

In Vietnam, girls are colloquially referred to as 'flying ducks' as they are regarded as a loss to the family upon marriage. Using the Vietnam Living Standards Surveys of 1992–1993 and 1997–1998, the method of Doiron and Riddell (1994) is applied to decompose the probability gap of being in school to explore gender differences in children's education and changes over time. The unexplained component is found to account for most of the observed gender probability gap in each period. Over time, however, the gap has narrowed. The explained component (namely, household income and children's involvement in housework or work activities) contributes to the narrowing gap. Cutting the indirect cost of education for girls (forgone contribution in work and housework) is crucial in ensuring girls have the same education opportunities as boys do.     

农村公共投资、居民消费与经济增长——一个博弈论的分析框架

本文在博弈论框架内讨论了公共投资与农村经济增长的关系.本文认为,政府公共投资与农村居民消费的博弈过程是推动农村经济增长的重要途径.由于博弈均衡水平和稳定性状受环境参数影响较大,公共投资与农村经济增长的相互推动作用并非是无条件的,只有那些经济系统处于发散的农村地区,公共投资与农村经济增长的相互推动作用才会显现.此外,本文还得出了统筹城乡和区域经济发展具有强化公共投资和农村经济增长相互作用的结论,并进行了相应的讨论.     

Revisiting the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through to Inflation in Africa’s Two Largest Economies: Nigeria and South Africa

This paper revisits the exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT) to inflation in Nigeria and South Africa by incorporating structural breaks and using time series variables, namely the consumer price index, nominal effective exchange rate, gross domestic product, and crude oil price. Based on the Maki cointegration test and a flexible estimation approach of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, our empirical evidence suggests that the long‐ and short‐run ERPT to inflation is complete for Nigeria, while for South Africa it is incomplete both in the long run and short run. This result indicates that prices are stickier in South Africa compared to Nigeria. The comparison between Nigeria and South Africa confirms the role of inflation targeting and central bank credibility on the ERPT. The results divulge further that output growth in Nigeria increases inflation in the long run while it is anti‐inflationary in the short run. For South Africa, the effect of output growth is negatively insignificant. In addition, the long‐run effect of oil price is negative and significant for Nigeria, while for South Africa the short‐run effect of oil price is positive and significant. Therefore, the findings of this paper will assist the monetary authorities to achieve monetary policy objectives.     

Testing the Validity of the Simultaneous Openness Hypothesis in Nigeria (1990–2015)

Since the seminal paper by Rajan and Zingales in 2003, a plethora of studies have been motivated to establish whether the simultaneous opening of trade and capital borders leads to financial sector development. We test whether the simultaneous openness hypothesis is valid for Nigeria, with a focus on the banking sector and stock market. Using annual data from 1990 to 2015 and an instrumental variable regression estimation technique, we show that the simultaneous increase of trade and financial openness limits banking sector and stock market development. Thus, there is no empirical evidence to validate the simultaneous openness hypothesis in Nigeria. It also shows that trade openness is more beneficial for banking sector and stock market development in Nigeria than financial openness.     

Gender Inequalities and Economic Efficiency: New Evidence from Cassava‐based Farm Holdings in Rural South‐western Nigeria

Abstract: It is a widely accepted fact that persistent inequality between men and women constrains a society's productivity and ultimately slows its rate of economic growth. The economy pays for this inequality in reduced labour productivity today and diminished national output tomorrow. Motivated by this, the study aim is to assess the possibilities of enhancing productivity gains by improving the efficiency of small‐scale agriculture through gender‐responsive intra‐household allocation of resources in south‐western Nigeria. The study adopts a stochastic parametric decomposition method which yields efficiency measures that are not distorted by statistical noise to estimate the efficiency level of resource allocation by small‐scale cassava producers. The results indicate that average overall productive efficiency in the sample was 75.78 per cent, implying that small‐scale cassava farmers in the sample could reduce total variable cost by 24.22 per cent if they reduce labour, fertilizer, land and capital applications to levels observed in the changing input mix (technical efficiency) and then obtain optimal input mix for the given input prices and technology (allocative efficiency). The average technical efficiency and allocative efficiency indexes for the sample were 82.2 per cent and 92.2 per cent respectively. Also, evidence from empirical analysis of data from the male respondents showed that the average economic, technical and allocative efficiency indexes were 88.06 per cent, 89.34 per cent and 78.67 per cent respectively while the same computed for the female sample were 94.9 per cent, 74.85 per cent and 71.03 per cent respectively. Labour was the most limiting factor in cassava production suggesting that the technologies that enhance the productivity of labour are likely to achieve significant positive effects on cassava production. The paper shares the notion that producers' control over the means of production and impact of development are related and has influence on the economic efficiency and growth of society. Again, technical inefficiency constituted a more serious problem than allocative inefficiency, thus most cost savings will accrue to improvement in technical efficiency.     

Exports and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Côte d’Ivoire

This paper examines the short‐ and long‐run relationship between economic growth, exports, real investments and labour force for Cô d’Ivoire for the period 1961–97, using cointegration and error correction techniques. The results indicate that there is one long‐run equilibrium relationship among the four variables, and the causal relationship flows from the growth in exports to the growth in GDP both in the short and long run, providing support for the export‐led growth hypothesis. This finding suggests that the recent trade reforms aimed at promoting domestic investment and restoring international competitiveness to expand and diversify exports have the potential of increasing economic growth in the future. L’article examine la relation à court et à long terme entre croissance économique, exportations, investissements réels et population active en Cô d’Ivoire pour la période 1961–97, au moyen de la technique de co‐intégration et de correction des erreurs. L’article conclut qu’il existe une relation déquilibre à long terme entre les quatre variables et que la relation de causalité lie la croissance des exportations à la croissance du PIB tant à court qu’à long terme, ce qui étaye l’hypothèse d’une croissance soutenue par les exportations. Ces conclusions laissent penser que les réformes commerciales récemment introduites pour promouvoir les investissements intérieurs et restaurer la compétitivité internationale, afin d’étendre et de diversifier les exportations, ont le potentiel de renforcer la croissance économique dans l’avenir.     

Explaining Nigeria’s Economic Growth: Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Approach With External and Internal Imbalances

This study employs a system estimator to examine the validity of balance of payment constrained growth model in the case of Nigeria. We modified a version of Thirlwall’s model developed by Soukiazis et al. (2014) to incorporate the role of foreign contents in growth process. The new version of the model improves significantly explaining the growth in Nigeria. The outcome of this study shows that imported intermediate and capital goods significantly contribute to manufacturing export and domestic investment growth. However, high reliance on the imports of intermediate goods constrains economic growth. World real income exerts significant effect on aggregate exports, similar arguments could not be established when the manufacturing export sector is considered in isolation. Our results reveal that economic growth in Nigeria is constrained by internal and external imbalances. The study recommends among others increasing the manufactured export share, efficient use of oil rents as well as containing budget deficit within acceptable threshold to position the economy on a viable growth path.     

统筹城乡的实质及发展的阶段性

本文从贯彻落实科学发展观、统筹兼顾13亿人的经济利益关系高度,从五个方面论述了统筹城乡的战略意义;从在科学发展中,逐步缩小城乡差距的视角,揭示了统筹城乡的实质;提出了统筹城乡作为一项系统工程,应当重视其发展的阶段性的观点,阐述了统筹城乡发展的三阶段论。     

农村土地制度改革的困境及一种可供选择的方案

中国农地制度改革面临两难选择:作为生产要素,土地的产权应当是稳定的,可交易的,因而应当改革现行农地制度;作为一种社会保障,土地的产权却应当是不稳定的,不可交易的,因而应当保留现行农地制度。用一种“土地”换“保障”的方案,以剥离土地的社会保障功能,将农民纳入现代社会保障体系,以走出农地制度改革的两难困境。