Does European development have Roman roots? Evidence from the German Limes

This paper contributes to the understanding of the long-run consequences of Roman rule on economic development. In ancient times, the area of contemporary Germany was divided into a Roman and a non-Roman part. The study uses this division to test whether the formerly Roman part of Germany are more developed than the non-Roman part. This is done using the Limes Germanicus wall as geographical discontinuity in a regression discontinuity design framework. The results indicate that economic development—as measured by luminosity—is indeed significantly and robustly larger in the formerly Roman part of Germany. The study identifies the persistence of the Roman road network until the present as an important factor causing this developmental advantage of the formerly Roman part of Germany both by fostering city growth and by allowing for a denser road network.     

Does Monetary Policy Respond to Uncertainty? Evidence from Australia

We construct a novel measure of uncertainty using expert monetary policy recommendation data for Australia. Our results suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to lower the cash rate when expert uncertainty is high. This result is robust to using other uncertainty measures.     

The chosen fortunate in the urbanization process in China? Evidence from a geographic regression discontinuity study

After decades of delayed urbanization, since 1998, China has implemented the “county‐to‐district” policy to promote urbanization and stimulate regional economic development. This policy was designed to expand the urban area of large cities by merging counties (rural areas) with nearby cities (urban areas). Intuitively, these regions are the “chosen fortunate” since they are the privileged beneficiaries of this policy experiment. However, at the time of writing (2018), recent studies have been inconsistent regarding this issue, and several studies have revealed that this policy has impeded regional growth. Therefore, the true effect of this policy must be carefully examined. Using grid‐level nighttime light data and a border‐based regression discontinuity design framework, we find that the average effect of the “county‐to‐district” policy on nighttime light growth is significant and positive, and this result also coincides with the increase of entry and decrease of exit of manufacturing enterprises, and the increase of the county‐level manufacturing employment. However, the policy effect on nighttime light turns to be negative in the long run, implying that short‐term economic growth may outweigh the long‐term economic growth potential. A further investigation of the underlying mechanism indicates that industrial enterprises in the experimental policy area do not perform better in terms of total factor productivity (TFP) and profit margin than their counterparts. Moreover, this policy aggravates the polarization between central and border areas.     

Does oil corrupt? Evidence from a natural experiment in West Africa

This paper explores the oil discovery announcements in Sao Tome and Principe (1997-1999) to assess the role of natural resources in determining corruption. For this purpose, we use a natural experiment framework which contrasts Sao Tome and Principe to Cape Verde, a control West African country sharing the same colonial past and important recent economic and political shocks. Our measurement is based on tailored household surveys we conducted in both island countries. The unique survey instrument was retrospective and used personal histories to elicit memories from the respondents. We analyze changes in perceived corruption across a wide range of public services and allocations. We find clearest increases on vote buying, education (namely in the allocation of scholarships) and customs, ranging from 31 to 40% of the subjective scale. We interpret these findings as symptoms of increased competition for core state resources.     

Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model

Using data on developing economies, we estimate a flexible semiparametric panel data model that incorporates potentially nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. We find that inflation is associated with significantly lower growth only after it reaches about 12 percent, which is notably lower than the comparable estimate obtained from a threshold model. Our results also suggest that models with restrictive functional form assumptions tend to underestimate marginal effects of inflation on economic growth. We also document significant variation in the effect of inflation on growth across countries and over time.     

Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?

We evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in thirteen developing countries that have adopted this policy by the end of 2004. Using a variety of propensity score matching methods, we show that, on average, inflation targeting has large and significant effects on lowering both inflation and inflation variability in these thirteen countries. However, the effectiveness of inflation targeting on lowering inflation is found to be quite heterogeneous. The performance of a given inflation targeting regime can be affected by country characteristics such as government's fiscal position, central bank's desire to limit the movements of exchange rate, its willingness to meet the preconditions of policy adoption, and the time length since the policy adoption.     

Does real U.K. GDP have a unit root? Evidence from a multi-century perspective

ABSTRACT

We employ linear and nonlinear unit-root tests to examine the stationarity of five multi-century historical U.K. series of real output compiled by the Bank of England. Three series span 1270 to 2016 and two series span 1700 to 2016. These datasets represent the longest span of historical real output data available and, thus, provide the environment for which unit-root tests are most powerful. A key feature of our test is its simultaneous allowance for two types of nonlinearity: time-dependent (structural breaks) nonlinearity and state-dependent (asymmetric adjustment) nonlinearity. The key finding of the test, contrary to what other more popular nonlinear unit-root tests suggest, provides strong evidence that the main structure of the five series is a stationary process characterized by an asymmetric nonlinear adjustment and a permanent break affecting both the intercept and the trend. A major policy implication of this finding is fiscal and/or monetary stabilization policies have only temporary effects on the output levels of the United Kingdom.     

Does trend inflation make a difference?

Although the average inflation rate of developed countries in the postwar period has been greater than zero, much of the extensive literature on monetary policy has employed models that assume zero steady-state inflation. In comparing four estimated medium–scale NK DSGE models with real and nominal frictions, we seek to shed light on the quantitative implications of omitting trend inflation, that is, positive steady–state inflation. We compare certain population characteristics and the IRFs for the four models by applying two loss functions based on a point distance criterion and on a distribution distance criterion, respectively. Finally, we compare the RMSE forecasts and we consider also an indirect inference test. We repeat the analysis for three sub-periods: the Great Inflation, the Great Moderation and the union of the two periods. We do not find strong evidence that a model with trend inflation should always be preferred. During periods of high inflation or when a backward-looking component, indexed to past inflation, is not incorporated in the model, using a model that employs trend inflation can improve the analysis. Nevertheless, where there is uncertainty concerning the change of an inflation regime, such as the recent drop, we suggest adopting a traditional approach that does not use trend inflation.     

Does corporate governance play an important role in BHC performance? Evidence from the U.S.

This study explores the relationship between the operating performance and corporate governance of bank holding companies (BHCs) in the U.S. The modified data envelopment analysis (DEA) is utilized to integrate the five rating indicators of CAMEL (Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management, Earnings, and Liquidity) so as to estimate the BHCs' performance. This study also employs the modified tiered DEA to categorize 68 BHCs into three Tiers. Additionally, the truncated-regression is employed to discuss whether or not the corporate governance would affect the performance of BHCs. The empirical results present the trade-off relationship with CAMEL indicators in the Tier1—Efficient BHCs. Moreover, it has been found that there are negative impacts on BHC's performance from board size, outside directors, the average age of directors and CEO/Chairman duality, while there are positive impacts from the number of committee and Big-4 auditors. The results further prove that corporate governance is important for the operating performance of BHCs.     

Does preschool education attendance matter? Evidence from a natural experiment in Spain

The non-compulsory and non-free of charge character of preschool education level before 3 years old in Spain raises some doubts about the exogenous nature of this variable. This article provides new evidence about the impact of preschool years on educational outcomes by exploiting a peculiar Spanish database that supplies information on two classrooms at fourth grade in primary schools where students were randomly allocated into each group. Using an identification strategy that reproduces a natural experiment, we find that belonging to the group with more average years of preschool education significantly and positively impacts on fourth-grade students’ average outcomes. Particularly, an increase of one standard deviation in the difference in years of preschool attendance results in an increase of 0.16 (0.13) standard deviations in the group achievement for mathematics (reading). In view of the importance of preschool education and considering that preschool attendance before 3 years old is related with socio-economic variables, we conclude that extending free preschool education to the 2-year-old age group in Spain should be considered especially for students in families with less favourable backgrounds.     

Does the presence of professional football cause crime in a city? Evidence from Pontiac,Michigan

Using daily panel data from Detroit, we empirically explore the relationship between the National Football League (NFL) and crime in a city. We exploit the natural experiment of the Detroit Lions’ move from Pontiac, Michigan, to downtown Detroit in 2002. Pontiac is used as the treatment city and non-game day crime, other suburban cities, and other cities outside Detroit MSA are used as the comparison groups. Employing a difference-in-difference approach, we find decreases in assaults and vandalism on home game days in Pontiac relative to the control cities after the Lions’ move. We find weak evidence of a net decrease in larceny and vandalism in Pontiac on home game days following the loss of professional football. No changes in assaults and auto theft are reported. While not conclusive, our results suggest that professional football leads to additional larceny and vandalism incidents but no effects on assaults and auto theft.     

Does greater central bank independence really lead to lower inflation? Evidence from panel data

It has long been held that central bank independence (CBI) from political control is a necessary requirement to curb inflation. In recent times, however, this long held belief has been challenged. Using a recently compiled panel data set on central bank independence measures, the proposition that greater CBI leads to lower inflation is tested, using latent variable analysis. The use of this alternative econometric technique, along with two additional indicators that capture more appropriately the degree of de facto independence, leads to empirical results that are highly supportive of the negative relationship between CBI and inflation, thereby restoring faith in the conventionally held wisdom, that greater CBI is needed to lower inflation.     

Income inequality among minority farmers in China: Does social capital have a role?

We used recently available household panel data collected by China's National Bureau of Statistics to examine the effects of natural, human, material, and social capital on income inequality among minority farmers in China's Xinjiang Province between 2011 and 2012. Results obtained from panel quantile regression and correlated random effects’ models show that income inequality and the poverty of ethnic farmers have been decreasing to some extent. Results also indicated that human capital exacerbates income inequality among the minorities, whereas the effect of natural capital on income inequality is not evident. Social and material capital reduce income inequality among ethnic minorities. Results from the decomposition of the Gini coefficient indicate that material and social capital contribute to a substantial majority of the income inequality in the region.     

Does consumption buy happiness? Evidence from the United States

We examine the association between various components of consumption expenditure and happiness in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative sample of older Americans. We find that only one component of consumption is positively related to happiness—leisure consumption. In contrast, consumption of durables, charity, personal care, food, health care, vehicles, and housing are not significantly associated with happiness. Second, we find that leisure consumption is associated with higher levels of happiness partially through its effect on social connectedness, as indexed by measures of loneliness and embeddedness in social networks. On one hand, these results counter the conventional wisdom that “material goods can’t buy happiness.” One the other hand, they underscore the importance of social goods and social connectedness in the production of happiness.     

Does a gender disparity exist in academic rank? Evidence from an Australian university

Employing a unique administrative data set on academics from the University of Wollongong (UOW), we investigate if women are under-represented in academic rank, taking into account information on personal characteristics, job characteristics, education and productivity. The results suggest that males have a significant advantage in rank attainment. The possession of a PhD, the number of years of experience and the number of journal articles, books, book chapters, competitive grants and ERA A* ranked articles appear to be important for academic rank attainment. A Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition test indicates that both supply side and demand side factors play a role; however, there is greater support for the endowments argument. Interviews were conducted in an attempt to explain the results. Interviews showed that men were more career-driven compared to women.     

Media’s role in the making of a democrat: Evidence from East Germany

This paper explores the causal influence of media content on voting behavior. We exploit a natural experiment involving access to West German TV within the German Democratic Republic. Focusing on federal and state election outcomes in the post-reunification decade (i.e., a time at which TV content was harmonized), we find that municipalities that had access to Western TV broadcasts before reunification have lower vote shares for left-wing and right-wing extremist parties. With regard to potential channels, we provide evidence based on survey data that GDR citizens with access to West German TV were less loyal to the socialist regime, less hostile toward foreigners, and exhibited higher levels of social capital. Our findings thus support the notion that access to free media influences political attitudes and facilitates the consolidation of democracy.     

Does self-fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist?

This study examines the causal relationship between the actual and expected inflation in the U.S., using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling-window estimation test to illustrate the self-fulfilment of inflation expectations. The full-sample result indicates that there is a bidirectional causality between the actual and expected inflation, showing the possibility of self-fulfilment of inflation expectations which illustrates that inflation is driven by inflation expectation. However, considering structural changes in two series, we find that the short-run causal nexus between the actual and expected inflation using full-sample data are fraudulent. By adopting a time-varying rolling-window approach to revisiting the dynamic causal relationships, this article identifies that the actual inflation has both positive and negative impacts on the expected inflation in distinct sub-periods. Nevertheless, inflation expectation exerts only negative effects on the actual inflation. The results point out that the self-fulfilment of inflation expectations does not exist. Given the bidirectional nexus between the actual and expected inflation, keeping a low and stable inflation is critical to price stability and anchoring of inflation expectation.     

Does oligopolistic banking friction amplify small open economy's business cycles? Evidence from Australia

This paper studies financial friction arising from oligopolistic bank competition and its impacts on a small open economy's business cycles by applying imperfect competition and endogenous firm entry theory. Using Australian data, the estimated model implies a countercyclical mark up in lending rate that varies inversely with number of banks. Such bank sector has a distinct shock propagation mechanism that often amplifies business cycles, depending on the type of shock. Balance sheet effects appear different compared to competitive banks, due to strategic bank behaviour. Unlike previous estimated small open economy general equilibrium studies, the model can capture substantial international transmissions.     

Did the euro give us a break in inflation?

The introduction of the euro was accompanied by promises of lower inflation rates; however, the public feels that inflation increased when the euro was introduced. Officials admit that certain sectors experienced substantial price increases, but they claim that the overall inflation rate did not increase. This paper investigates whether inflation in 15 European countries experienced a structural break after the euro was introduced using new powerful and serial correlation robust test statistics. We find evidence that the European Monetary Union (EMU) countries experienced a positive break in inflation after 1999. Our results demonstrate that inflation just after the introduction of the euro was higher relative to the inflation just prior to the introduction of the euro. Additionally, we find no evidence of positive breaks for the non-EMU countries when the euro was introduced.