Has the correlation of inflation and stock prices changed in the United States over the last two centuries?

The relationship between stock prices and the inflation can be either negative or positive, depending on the strengths of various theoretical channels at work. In this study, we examine the dynamic conditional correlations of stock prices and inflation in the United States over the period of 1791–2015 under a time-varying framework. The results of our empirical analysis reveal that correlations between the inflation and stock prices in the United States evolve heterogeneously overtime. In particular, the correlations are significantly positive in the 1840s, 1860s, 1930s and 2011, and significantly negative otherwise. The policy implications of these findings are then discussed.     

Has the likelihood of appointing a CEO with an accounting/finance background changed in the post-Sarbanes Oxley era?

Congress passed the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) in July 2002 to improve the accuracy and reliability of financial reporting. The Act increased boards of directors’ responsibilities for financial reporting and control. Did it consequently increase boards’ preferences for a CEO with financial experience to protect against the potential reputational and/or legal losses that directors incur when financial scandals happen? We investigated whether newly appointed CEOs in the post-SOX period were more likely to have accounting or finance experience than in the pre-SOX period. Using a sample of 264 CEO changes from 2001 to 2004, we found that the percentage of newly-appointed CEOs with accounting/finance backgrounds significantly increased in the post-SOX period compared to the pre-SOX period. Our results suggest that the events surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act may have affected the CEO background experience preferred by boards of directors.     

Transparent Costing: Has the emperor got clothes?

Transparent Costing (TC) is a framework for determining the full indirect costs and thereby the full costs (FC) of Australian Competitive Grant (ACG) research projects; with the objective of ensuring the full funding of these projects by the government, so that they could be sustained in the long-run, and preventing their cross-subsidisation from other revenue sources. If a university wishes to be fully funded for its AGC research projects, it is mandatory to undertake a TC exercise and allocate the indirect costs of research activities. It was found in this study that whilst the objectives of FC appear worthwhile, FC may not prevent the practice of cross subsidisation. Also whilst it was found that Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing (TDABC) is preferable to ABC in the TC modelling of ‘research only’ departments and institutes; both approaches do not provide accurate information in ‘teaching and research’ departments. In these departments more accurate estimations could be obtained from studying the workload allocation methods and conducting direct interviews of the staff undertaking research on ACG and other externally funded grants.     

Has Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation in Georgia Helped the Poor?

This article proposes a research strategy to deal with the scarcityof data on beneficiaries for conducting impact assessments ofcommunity-level projects. Community-level panel data from aregular household survey augmented with a special communitymodule are used to measure the impact of projects. Propensityscore–matched difference-in-difference comparisons areused to control for time-invariant unobservable factors. Thismethodology takes into consideration the purposeful placementof projects and their interactions at the community level. Thisempirical approach is applied to infrastructure rehabilitationprojects—for schools, roads, and water supply systems—inrural Georgia between 1998 and 2001. The analysis produces plausibleresults regarding the size of welfare gains from a particularproject at the village level and allows for differentiationof benefits between the poor and the nonpoor. The findings ofthis study can contribute to evaluations of the impact of infrastructureinterventions on poverty by bringing new empirical evidenceto bear on the welfare and equity implications.     

Poverty,Preference or Pensioners? Measuring Material Deprivation in the UK*

Indicators of material deprivation are typically based on a two-part question, asking, first, whether respondents possess a series of deprivation items and, second – if they do not – whether this is because of a lack of resources or is by choice. This second subquestion, or ‘enforced lack’ criterion, is ubiquitous but its efficacy has been questioned by a number of authors. In an important critique published in Fiscal Studies, McKay (2004) claimed that older people were more likely than younger respondents to report that they did not want the items they lacked, despite their lower incomes, and also that the enforced lack criterion introduced a subjectivity which, in effect, required respondents to feel poor in order to be classified as such. This critique has potentially profound implications for poverty measurement. In this paper, we seek to address the question of whether, if we are to employ indicators of material deprivation for poverty measurement, we should include the enforced lack criterion or not. In seeking to answer this question, we draw on data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and present tests of reliability and validity on indices of material deprivation, with and without the enforced lack criterion. Using odds ratio and analysis of variance methods, we find that the inclusion of the enforced lack criterion provides a measure of material deprivation which is both more reliable, and more valid based on a subjective measure of deprivation as well as on a majority of more objective forms of deprivation. Amongst the remaining minority (ill health for both methods and income quintile for the analysis of variance method), the divergent results can be explained, at least in part, by the older age profile of respondents in poor health and on low incomes. Thus, while there are legitimate concerns about the performance of such deprivation indicators amongst certain subgroups – in particular, amongst older people – on aggregate the enforced lack criterion helps to distinguish between poverty and preference.     

What determines debt structure in emerging markets: Transaction costs or public monitoring?

We examine the predilection for private bonds over bank financing (debt structure) for emerging markets within the frameworks of both transaction cost economics and a transparency explanation, emphasizing the distinction between public monitoring (bonds) and private monitoring (banks), as well as considering the influence of national culture on institutions. Employing several tests, including structural equation modeling, we find, among many results that in emerging markets bonds are preferred over bank loans when there is less corporate opacity and fewer foreign access restrictions, as well as in environment of greater political instability, transaction cost, and limits to legal protection. Bonds are also favored over banks in cultural environments of greater uncertainty avoidance, masculinity, long-term orientation, and indulgence and less individualism. Overall, we attribute our results to culture and institutional quality together influencing debt structure, particularly by impacting attitudes toward public monitoring. Our results will be of great interest to researchers interested in the legal, social, and cultural environments of emerging markets.     

Where Has All the Education Gone?

Cross-national data show no association between increases inhuman capital attributable to the rising educational attainmentof the labor force and the rate of growth of output per worker.This implies that the association of educational capital growthwith conventional measures of total factor production is large,strongly statistically significant, and negative. These are"on average" results, derived from imposing a constant coefficient.However, the development impact of education varied widely acrosscountries and has fallen short of expectations for three possiblereasons. First, the institutional/governance environment couldhave been sufficiently perverse that the accumulation of educationalcapital lowered economic growth. Second, marginal returns toeducation could have fallen rapidly as the supply of educatedlabor expanded while demand remained stagnant. Third, educationalquality could have been so low that years of schooling createdno human capital. The extent and mix of these three phenomenavary from country to country in explaining the actual economicimpact of education, or the lack thereof.     

Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy

Several researchers have recently documented large reductions in economic volatility. But a more important question may be whether the economy has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find that inflation and output have become more predictable, though the results for output are somewhat mixed. The reductions in unpredictability (if any) are significantly smaller than reductions in volatility. Associated with this, the predictable component of fluctuations in output and inflation has virtually disappeared.     

Has government any role in money?

Recent interest in monetary reform has been sparked by the emergence of a world irredeemable paper money system. In light of this interest, we review the current validity of four ‘good reasons’ Friedman advanced in 1960 to rationalize government intervention. We conclude that the forces that produced government involvement in the past will persist. Deregulation of financial intermediaries is desirable on grounds of market efficiency, though it is an open question whether government should continue as lender of last resort. We expect that the present world fiat money standard will neither degenerate into hyperinflation nor revert to a commodity standard.     

IFRS Ten Years on: Has the IASB Imposed Extensive Use of Fair Value? Has the EU Learnt to Love IFRS? And Does the Use of Fair Value make IFRS Illegal in the EU?

Abstract

This paper is a commentary on issues related to the first decade's mandatory use of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) in the EU. Three specific but related questions are addressed, as in the paper's title. On the first (imposition and use of fair value (FV)), I conclude that the International Accounting Standards Board has not substantially extended the use of FV in its 15 years of work and that most companies hold few assets or liabilities on the FV basis. On the second question (adoption in the EU), I analyse a consultation exercise which strongly suggests that the EU's imposition of IFRSs will continue. On the third question (legality of IFRSs), I explain why recent UK legal opinions that question the legality of reporting under IFRSs are not persuasive.     

Latin American Cycles: Has Anything Changed After the Great Recession?

This paper analyzes the evolution of growth cycles and business cycles in Latin America from 1980 to 2013 by using monthly industrial production. Focusing on both synchronization and other cyclical features, we find evidence of significant cyclical links between the countries of the region, which seem to be highly integrated in this period. Notably, we find that the Great Recession did not lead to any significant impact on the preexisting Latin American cyclical linkages.     

Has the euro affected the choice of invoicing currency?

We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on the pattern of currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice is explained by both currency-specific and country-specific determinants. We use unique quarterly panel data on the invoicing of Norwegian imports from OECD countries for the 1996–2006 period. We find that eurozone countries have substantially increased their share of home currency invoicing after the introduction of the euro, whereas the home currency share of non-eurozone countries fell slightly. In addition, the euro as a vehicle currency has overtaken the role of the US dollar in Norwegian imports. The substantial rise in producer currency invoicing by eurozone countries is primarily caused by a drop in inflation volatility and can only to a small extent be explained by an unobserved euro effect.     

Has the Reform of Nontradable Shares Raised Prices?: An Event-Study Analysis

This study examines the abnormal stock returns of pilot companies to determine if investors believed that reform of nontradable shares, which began on April 29, 2005, would lead to higher stock prices. Employing event-study analysis, we find that the pilot companies have positive significant abnormal returns. The average abnormal return of the first batch is higher than that of the second batch, the average abnormal return on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is higher than that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the average abnormal return on the Small and medium Enterprise board is higher than that of the main board, and companies with high-compensation packages have higher average abnormal returns than do companies with low-compensation packages. Our results suggest that investors generally viewed nontradable share reform as positive news.     

Has the CDS market lowered the cost of corporate debt?

Many have claimed that credit default swaps (CDSs) have lowered the cost of debt financing to firms by creating new hedging opportunities and information for investors. This paper evaluates the impact that the onset of CDS trading has on the spreads that underlying firms pay to raise funding in the corporate bond and syndicated loan markets. Employing a range of methodologies, we fail to find evidence that the onset of CDS trading lowers the cost of debt financing for the average borrower. Further, we uncover economically significant adverse effects on risky and informationally opaque firms.     

Segment Reporting Practices in Australia: Has IFRS 8 Made a Difference?

This study examines changes in segment reporting in Australia following the adoption of the international accounting standard, IFRS 8 Operating Segments. We analyse segment disclosures of the top 200 companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange in their pre‐ and post‐adoption of AASB 8, the equivalent Australian standard to IFRS 8. Our findings indicate that the number of reportable segments and the extent of disclosure have increased post‐adoption of AASB 8. Contrary to expectations, however, there is very little change in the identification of reportable segments. Companies, in general, have managed to retain their segment reporting formats and disclosures from the pre‐AASB 8 period.     

Credit risk transfer in U.S. commercial banks: What changed during the 2007–2009 crisis?

Following the debate on the role of credit risk transfer (CRT) in exacerbating the 2007–2009 crisis, this paper investigates the usage and effects of loan sales, securitization, and credit derivatives in U.S. commercial banks over the last decade, with special emphasis on the financial crisis. We find that in times of severe funding constraints, the need to raise financial resources becomes the principal incentive behind CRT. We document some beneficial effects of CRT on the economy, since the funds released through CRT are subsequently invested by banks to sustain credit supply, also in recession. However, we report higher overall riskiness in banks that engage intensively in loans sales and securitization, which translates into higher default rates during the crisis. Interestingly, the benefits and drawbacks of CRT are much stronger for loan sales and securitization than for credit derivatives.     

Has the value of cash increased over time?

We document a dramatic increase in the market valuation of cash holdings of US firms from 1988 to 2013. The value of one dollar of cash has increased by $0.019 per year during the period, indicating that shareholders place more value on cash in recent years. We also find that the increasing trend in cash value is driven mainly by increases in institutional shareholdings and accounting conservatism. We further decompose cash change into cash flows from operation (CFO) and cash flows from investing and financing activities, and find that CFO is a significant driver of the increasing trend in cash value.     

Islamic Banking: How Has It Expanded?

We investigate the determinants of the pattern of Islamic bank expansion around the world using country-level data for 1992-2006. The analysis illustrates that income per capita, share of Muslims in the population, and economic integration with Middle Eastern countries are linked to the development of Islamic banking. Interest rates have a negative impact, while the quality of institutions is not found to be significant. The September 11, 2001, attacks were not a major factor in the expansion of Islamic banking, but they coincided with rising oil prices. Islamic banks also appear to be complements to, rather than substitutes for, conventional banks.     

Genetically modified organisms and the age of (Un) reason? A critical examination of the rhetoric in the GMO public policy debates in Ghana

Using narrative policy analysis we examined the adversarial rhetoric of claims-makers in their bid to undermine alternative and conflicting accounts of GMOs as environmental and human health risk and to forestall any challenges to the scientific authority of the technological deterministic account of the GMO policy debates in Ghana. The study shows that the GMO discourse was built with the rhetorical frames of smallholder farmer vulnerability and entitlement used in the account it contradicts, thereby legitimating its own appeal for responsive remedies. Civil society claims attacked GMOs as discriminatory and as an environmental and human health risk. Government and scientists engaged in unsympathetic counter rhetorical strategies in hopes of debunking or neutralizing the claim made by civil society. In other words, Government and scientists were denying the claim that GMO was discriminatory and posed significant human health risk, as well as the call to action to do something about GMOs. Civil society adapted the counter rhetoric of insincerity, claiming that scientists had some kind of “hidden agenda” behind their claim, such as eagerness to just earn money from their patents on GMOs. It is imperative that communication on GMOs includes the underlying assumptions, the uncertainties and the probabilities associated with both best and worst case scenarios. This is a necessary condition to minimise misinformation on GMOs but may be insufficient to completely erase conspiracy theories from the minds of the public especially when scientists and government are perceived to be biased towards multinational corporations that are ostensibly preoccupied with making profits.     

Does Social Capital Matter in Corporate Decisions? Evidence from Corporate Tax Avoidance

We investigate whether the levels of social capital in U.S. counties, as captured by strength of civic norms and density of social networks in the counties, are systematically related to tax avoidance activities of corporations with headquarters located in the counties. We find strong negative associations between social capital and corporate tax avoidance, as captured by effective tax rates and book‐tax differences. These results are incremental to the effects of local religiosity and firm culture toward socially irresponsible activities. They are robust to using organ donation as an alternative social capital proxy and fixed effect regressions. They extend to aggressive tax avoidance practices. Additionally, we provide corroborating evidence using firms with headquarters relocation that changes the exposure to social capital. We conclude that social capital surrounding corporate headquarters provides environmental influences constraining corporate tax avoidance.