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1.
应对气候变化包括适应与减缓两大对策,二者相辅相成,缺一不可。适应气候变化是人类社会可 持续发展面临的紧迫任务。目前适应气候变化的基础性研究相当薄弱,影响了适应工作的开展。文章综述 了适应气候变化的国内外发展趋势,阐述了适应气候变化的内涵与机制,划分了适应对策的各种类型,初 步提出了适应气候变化的理论研究框架和工作路线图。 相似文献
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We combine farm accounting data with high-resolution meteorological data, and climate scenarios to estimate climate change impacts and adaptation potentials at the farm level. To do so, we adapt the seminal model of Moore and Lobell (2014) who applied panel data econometrics to data aggregated from the farm to the regional (subnational) level. We discuss and empirically investigate the advantages and challenges of applying such models to farm-level data, including issues of endogeneity of explanatory variables, heterogeneity of farm responses to weather shocks, measurement errors in meteorological variables, and aggregation bias. Empirical investigations into these issues reveal that endogeneity due to measurement errors in temperature and precipitation variables, as well as heterogeneous responses of farms toward climate change may be problematic. Moreover, depending on how data are aggregated, results differ substantially compared to farm-level analysis. Based on data from Austria and two climate scenarios (Effective Measures and High Emission) for 2040, we estimate that the profits of farms will decline, on average, by 4.4% (Effective Measures) and 10% (High Emission). Adaptation options help to considerably ameliorate the adverse situation under both scenarios. Our results reinforce the need for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. 相似文献
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Climatic change has a negative impact on people’s livelihoods, agriculture, freshwater supply and other natural resources that are important for human survival. Therefore, understanding how rural smallholder farmers perceive climate change, climate variability, and factors that influence their choices would facilitate a better understanding of how these farmers adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. A Zero-inflated double hurdle model was employed to estimate the factors influencing farmers’ adoption of adaptation strategies and intensity of adoption at the household level in South Africa. Different socioeconomic factors such as gender, age, and experience in crop farming, institutional factors like access to extension services, and access to climate change information significantly influenced the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies among beneficiaries of land reform in South Africa. Concerning intensity of adoption, age, educational level, farming experience, on-farm training, off-farm income, access to information through ICT and locational variables are the significant determinants of intensity of adaptation strategies. Thus, education attainment, non-farm employment, farming experience are significant incentives to enhance smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity through the adoption of many adaptation approaches. This study therefore concluded that farm-level policy efforts that aim to improve rural development should focus on farmers’ education, on-farm demonstration and non-farm employment opportunities that seek to engage the farmers, particularly during the off-cropping season. The income from non-farm employment can be plough-back into farm operations such as the adoption of soil and water conservation, use of improved planting varieties, insurance, among others to mitigate climate variability and subsequently increase productivity. Policies and investment strategies of the government should be geared towards supporting education, providing on-farm demonstration trainings, and disseminating information about climate change adaptation strategies, particularly for smallholder farmers in the country. Thus, the government, stakeholders, and donor agencies must provide capacity-building innovations around the agricultural extension system and education on climate change using information and communication technologies. 相似文献
4.
全球气候变化已经对中国农业生产带来较突出的影响。在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减缓农业温室气体排放非常重视,而长期以来对农业适应气候变化却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家而言适应气候变化才是当务之急。文章在对适应气候变化含义理解的基础上,概述了中国适应气候变化的工作进展,论述了农业适应气候变化的迫切性,总结了当前主要的适应技术,提出了中国农业适应技术的差距,并重点详细探讨了中国农业适应气候变化面临的挑战。 相似文献
5.
全球气候变化对海岛旅游地的影响与启示 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
陈金华 《国土与自然资源研究》2010,(1):63-64
气候既是海岛旅游业发展的自然条件,又是主要的资源,全球气候的异常变化影响海岛旅游资源的数量与质量、客流的空间与季节移动,并导致传统海岛旅游目的地的萎缩。全球气候变化对我国海岛旅游业的影响日益显著,必须及时调整海岛旅游发展的对策：大力发展生态旅游、可持续旅游;探究旅游者对气候变化的适应;改善海岛旅游目的地服务设施;重新进行海岛旅游规划;重视旅游主体人群的教育,以适应全球气候变化带来的巨大影响。 相似文献
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This study estimates the distributional heterogeneity in the effects of climate change on yields of three major cereal crops: rice, maize, and wheat in India using district-level information for the period 1966–2015. We distinguish between the effects of changes in growing season weather from those due to changes in long-term climate trends and the heterogeneity in these effects across the distribution of crop yields by estimating naïve and climate penalty inclusive models using fixed-effect quantile panel models. We observe an absence of adaptation against rising temperatures for rice and wheat. However, we find a statistically significant presence of adaptation for wheat and maize for changes in precipitation, though the magnitude is small. Moreover, we find that the effects are asymmetric, and are larger at the lower tail of productivity distribution and smaller at the upper tail of the distribution. A 1°C increase in temperature lowers rice and wheat productivity by 23% and 9%, respectively at the first quantile, but the damage is only 6% and 5% at the ninth quantile. Heterogeneity in impacts and adaptation estimates over the yield distribution curve and across crops suggests the importance of customizing strategies for adaptation to changing weather and climate conditions across regions, crops, and current productivity levels. 相似文献
8.
Todd Sanderson Greg Hertzler Tim Capon Peter Hayman 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2016,60(1):79-96
A significant portion of the world's agricultural systems currently operate at the extreme end of the climate conditions that are considered to be suitable for crop and livestock production. Under these conditions, even moderate climate changes are anticipated to drive substantial transformational changes to agricultural systems. Transformations require new investments and infrastructure and can leave some assets stranded. These transformations can be partially or wholly irreversible, and hysteresis effects can make switching difficult and mistakes costly to reverse. This study demonstrates how a real options decision framework, ‘Real Options for Adaptive Decisions’ (ROADs), can be used to investigate how uncertainties about the climate affect the adaptation and transformation of agricultural systems. By building upon recent developments in the mathematics of stochastic optimisation, we extend traditional economic analyses of agricultural investment decisions based on net present values to better represent incomplete knowledge and uncertainty. We report results from a case study in South Australia that describes the transition pathways farmers might follow as their industries are transformed in response to climate change. 相似文献
9.
北方农牧交错带对于气候变化和人类干扰敏感,在我国经济、社会发展和环境保护方面具有重要 的战略地位。因此,关于其气候界线及变迁的基础研究,可以为农牧交错带的其他深入研究提供科学支 撑。文章基于北方236个气象站点1980～2009年的日气象资料,依据李世奎（20世纪80年代）提出的气 候指标界定北方农牧交错带不同时段的气候界线,通过叠置法分析农牧交错带的核心区域及气候界线变 迁。结果表明:现今（1980～2009年）农牧交错带的分布仍呈现出从东北至西南的带状格局,但范围整体 较早期（20世纪80年代前）有所扩张,分布在内蒙古自治区的交错带面积最广。近30年来,农牧交错带 的气候界线东西摆动,但整体上是向东迁移的。变化趋势与该区域降水量的变化具有一定的相关性,东北 段变化幅度大,由于该区降水量减少而向东变迁;华北区的东部变化幅度较大,而其西部则变化幅度小; 西北段则由于该区降水量增加而向西北延伸。 相似文献
10.
Clarke Harry 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2008,52(4):487-504
One approach to rationalising policies for addressing potentially catastrophic climate change when such policies may prove unnecessary is to suppose the policies provide a form of social insurance even in the presence of pure uncertainty. Then, provided the policies are effective, such insurance can be justified as a precautionary or minimax response. Even if the policies are potentially ineffective however, intervention can be justified as an attempt to minimise the regret experienced by future generations. This reasoning extends to justify ‘all weather’ policies provided such policies always reduce policy costs. If, however, policy decisions provide ‘all weather’ benefits in only certain states of the world, this rationale breaks down. Minimising regret can establish a case for ‘mixed’ policy responses provided adopting a policy mix precludes the chance that intervention will fail altogether. Precautionary policies and policies which minimise regret are computed for a simple, dynamic, adaptive climate change planning problem and sufficient conditions for policy maker pessimism provided. 相似文献
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Tas Thamo Donkor Addai Marit E. Kragt Ross S. Kingwell David J. Pannell Michael J. Robertson 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2019,63(4):841-865
Agricultural research on climate change generally follows two themes: (i) impact and adaptation or (ii) mitigation and emissions. Despite both being simultaneously relevant to future agricultural systems, the two are usually studied separately. By contrast, this study jointly compares the potential impacts of climate change and the effects of mitigation policy on farming systems in the central region of Western Australia’s grainbelt, using the results of several biophysical models integrated into a whole‐farm bioeconomic model. In particular, we focus on the potential for interactions between climate impacts and mitigation activities. Results suggest that, in the study area, farm profitability is much more sensitive to changes in climate than to a mitigation policy involving a carbon price on agricultural emissions. Climate change reduces the profitability of agricultural production and, as a result, reduces the opportunity cost of reforesting land for carbon sequestration. Nonetheless, the financial attractiveness of reforestation does not necessarily improve because climate change also reduces tree growth and, therefore, the income from sequestration. Consequently, at least for the study area, climate change has the potential to reduce the amount of abatement obtainable from sequestration – a result potentially relevant to the debate about the desirability of sequestration as a mitigation option. 相似文献
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《国际农业可持续发展杂志》2013,11(4):278-289
Extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity under climate change. Recent examples of these types of events, such as the heat wave in Europe in 2003, have caused considerable damage to crops and agriculture and substantial economic damage. If similar damage was incurred every time such an event occurred in the future, it would cause increasingly serious loss to social welfare and the economy as the frequency or intensity of these events increased. However, agriculture has a history of adapting to shocks, and in this paper we aim to determine whether there has been a systematic reduction in damage from historic extreme events over time in the agricultural sector in the UK. The impact of comparable droughts or heat waves over the past four decades is compared, and for many commodities there appears to have been a reduction in damage over time, to the point where recent events have had a minimal impact on production, indicating that the sector is relatively well adapted to the current climate. We discuss whether this type of adaptation can be sustained into the future under more rapid rates of change, or whether the ‘low-hanging’ fruits of adaptation have been picked. 相似文献
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该文对东北农牧交错区气候变化趋势进行了简要综述,对干旱和土壤沙化趋势影响下东北农牧交错区花生发展原因进行了分析,对该区域形成的花生优势种植区进行了初步总结。在此基础上,对东北农牧交错区花生发展潜力和问题进行了分析,最后提出了对策建议。 相似文献
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该文利用IPCC AR4模式资料和基于多年观测资料生成的格点数据,建立降水、最高/最低气温的统计降尺度关系,获取华北地区高分辨率未来气候情景空间分布;利用作物模型模拟IPCC-B1情景下冬小麦生长期和产量变化。结果表明:最高/最低气温模拟结果与观测值比较,相关系数(R2)大于0.70;降水模拟结果与观测值比较,相关系数最小为0.63;IPCC-B1情景下,华北地区冬小麦生长期总体上变短,产量下降。 相似文献
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目的 分析我国华南地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征,探讨极端降水指数的影响因子,及其与年总降水量、大尺度大气环流的关系,并预测未来研究区域极端降水事件变化趋势,为区域水资源可持续利用和防灾减灾提供参考。方法 文章选用1959—2016年华南地区72个资料序列较长的地面气象站点逐日降水实测数据,计算11种极端降水指数并对其进行气候倾向率分析、空间分析、因子分析、相关分析、小波分析及R/S预测分析。结果 （1）从时间尺度上来看,1959年以来,研究区极端降水事件呈现增加趋势,降水强度指数SDII变化倾向率为0.34 mm/d/10a;极端降水量指数（PRCPTOT、RX1day、RX5day、R95p、R99p）变化倾向率分别为19.96 mm/10a、2.06 mm/10a、3.22 mm/10a、17.46 mm/10a和7.23 mm/10a;极端降水日数指数（R10、R20、R50、CDD、CWD）中除持续湿润日数CWD呈减少趋势以外,其他指数也呈现微弱增加趋势,其变化倾向率分别为0.31 d/10a、0.48 d/10a、0.19 d/10a、0.09 d/10a和-0.11 d/10a。从空间尺度上来看,研究区极端降水指数总体呈增加趋势,存在明显的空间差异。（2）基于因子分析方法提取了3个公共因子,累积方差贡献率为90.01 %,反映了极端降水量指数和降水强度指数对极端降水事件影响较大;相关分析也表明极端降水指数与年总降水量的相关性很好,R95p和R99p对年总降水量的贡献呈增加趋势。北大西洋涛动（NAO）对极端降水事件具有明显的影响,南海副高强度指数（SCSSHII）和西太平洋副高强度指数（WPSHII）对研究区极端降水事件贡献明显。大气环流的变化是极端降水变化的重要影响因素。（3）基于R/S分析方法表明PRCPTOT、R10、R20、R50和CDD等指数表现为强反持续性,未来将呈现减少趋势;R95p呈随机变化,未来变化趋势不明确;SDII、RX1day、RX5day、R99p和CWD等指数表现为弱持续性,即未来变化趋势与过去变化趋势一致。结论 华南地区极端降水事件总体呈增加趋势,空间差异显著,大尺度大气环流对华南地区极端降水影响明显。 相似文献
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Although climate change may severely impact agriculture, farmers can mitigate it by adapting. Using US data, we estimate the amount of potential loss in agricultural profits, due to climate change, that can be reduced by agricultural adaptation. We consider two panel frameworks that differ only in their fixed effects specifications, where this difference allows us to estimate the climate change impact on agricultural profits with or without adaptation. Comparing these estimates, we find that adaptation has the potential to offset about two‐thirds of the end‐of‐century loss in agricultural profits potentially resulting from climate change. We also find that the warmest region in the US (i.e. in the south) has the most to gain from adaptation. 相似文献
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利用华南地区1960~2011年101个时间序列较长的气象台站地面观测资料,运用线性趋势法、累积距平和反距离加权插值等方法分析了华南地区光能、热量和水分等农业气候资源的时空变化特征。结果表明：1961年以来,华南地区年总辐射量呈现“U”字型变化趋势,日照时数呈减少趋势。1960~2011年,华南地区年平均气温、最高气温和最低气温都呈上升趋势,平均增速为019℃/10年、013℃/10年和023℃/10年,温度生长期内≥10℃积温的气候倾向率为767℃/年,总体呈上升趋势,与1960~1980年相比,1981~2011年华南地区≥10℃积温高于8000℃以上的积温约向北移动了040个纬度,高于7500~8000℃积温约向北移动了025个纬度,高于6 500~7 500℃积温约向北移动了015个纬度,这将有利于热带作物的生产和种植。同时,近52来年均降水量呈微弱增加趋势,线性倾向率为038mm/年,降水量的空间分布特征较为明显,由东南向西北逐渐减少,与全国降水量分布呈一致性。1960~2011年,华南地区光能、热量和水分等农业气候资源都发生了明显的变化,对农业会造成一定的影响,如作物生长期延长,生长季热量增加,种植界限向北、向高海拔扩展。 相似文献
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Aaron De Laporte;Daniel Schuurman;Tristan Skolrud;Peter Slade;Alfons Weersink; 《Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie》2024,72(3):309-324
Canada's agricultural business risk management (BRM) programs require significant public expenditure, with unclear consequences related to climate change adaptation and mitigation through the adoption of beneficial management practices (BMPs). This study examines the relationship between Canada's current suite of BRM programs and the adoption of practices that mitigate GHG emissions in crop agriculture. We review the impacts of agricultural insurance on climate adaptation and mitigation, identifying impacts on both the intensive and extensive margins of production. We consider five potential program modifications, including: (1) changes in producer insurance premiums in AgriInsurance for the adoption of practices that would decrease the actuarially fair insurance rate if they were properly incorporated in the calculation; (2) dedicated insurance products related to trials of specific BMPs; (3) adjustments to current programs to allow more whole-farm considerations and intercropping; (4) cross-compliance measures on AgriInvest tied to environmental education; and (5) reduced insurance coverage for unfavorable environmental practices. While the effects of these potential modifications remain uncertain, they will drive the data collection process necessary to ensure that Canada's BRM programs play an appropriate role in greenhouse-gas reducing BMP adoption and climate change adaptation and mitigation. 相似文献
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In this article, we explore if and why farmers are responding to the impacts of climate change with practices that increase greenhouse gas emissions. Our examination focuses on heavy rainfall events and Midwestern corn farmers' nitrogen fertilizer management. Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of heavy rain events is increasing across the Midwest. These events increase nitrogen loss to the environment and introduces economic risks to farmers. Drawing from a theoretical framework that merges O'Connor's second contradiction of capitalism and Schnaiberg's treadmill of production, we argue farmers' responses to these events reflect the second contradiction, increasing contributions to climate change, and are shaped by treadmill‐like political‐economic pressures. We examine this using a qualitative sample of 154 farmers across Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan. Given profit imperatives, adapting farmers in our sample primarily used increased nitrogen application rates to reduce their vulnerability to heavy rains. As nitrogen rate is directly associated with nitrous oxide emissions, this adaptive strategy is effective but increases agricultural contributions to climate change. This preliminarily suggests that the political‐economic structure encourages farmers to respond to climate change in ways that accelerate the environmental contradictions of industrial agriculture. 相似文献
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利用东北地区89个气象站的逐日地面气候观测资料,采用气象气候倾向率、MK检验等气候统计诊断方法,分析54年来东北地区热量资源要素的变化规律,研究结果表明:(1)东北地区无论是年平均气温还是各季节平均气温都表现明显的升高趋势,但各季节间气温增幅存在差异,冬季增温幅度最大,为0.49℃/10年,夏季增温增幅最小,为0.17℃/10年;(2)≥0℃和≥10℃积温增加趋势明显,倾向率分别为58.74℃/10年和60.97℃/10年;(3)≥0℃初日平均提前1.98天/10年,终日平均延后0.53天/10年,持续天数平均延长2.34天/10年;≥10℃活动积温初日平均提前1.18天/10年,终日平均延后0.57天/10年,持续天数平均延长2.49天/10年;(4)较1956 ～1979年,1980～ 2009年各界限温度和活动积温等值线在空间上明显北移. 相似文献