An empirical examination of IPO underpricing in the Chinese A-share market

Research in the literature shows that initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stocks are systematically priced at a discount to their subsequent initial trading price. The large underpricing magnitude in the Chinese IPO market has attracted much attention. We consider three hypotheses that may explain the IPO underpricing in China. These are the winner's curse hypothesis, the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis and the signaling hypothesis. Among these hypotheses, the winner's curse hypothesis has not been tested in the Chinese market. Using IPO data for online fixed-price offerings from November 1995 to December 1998, our results show that the winner's curse hypothesis is the main reason for the high IPO underpricing in China. The signaling hypothesis is not empirically supported in the Chinese market during the sample period.     

市场分割下中国双重上市公司资产定价效率问题研究

文章对双重上市公司在不同市场首次公开发行定价、上市首日抑价和二级市场交易价格差异三个层次对资产定价效率进行了经验数据分析,结果表明,内资股相对外资股具有发行定价高、首目抑价高的“双高”现象;在定价效率方面,对于“A＋H”公司,A股的发行定价受到发行时H股二级市场价格的显著影响,而与H股的发行价格之间没有显著关系,但“A＋B”公司A股和B股的发行价格之间存在显著的正相关,同时在二级市场上,“A＋H”公司的市场价差波动相对于“A＋B”公司小。这意味着“A＋H”公司的资产定价效率要高于“A＋B”公司,H股的价格较能反映公司的真实估值,对A股的定价具有指导作用。     

Does Disclosure Regulation Work? Evidence from International IPO Markets*

This study examines whether IPO disclosure requirements mandated by countries’ securities laws are associated with variation in IPO underpricing in international IPO markets. Our empirical analysis uses a unique sample of 6,025 IPOs from 34 countries over the period from 1995 to 2002. We show for the first time that the stringency of disclosure requirements for IPO prospectuses is negatively associated with the extent of IPO underpricing, after controlling for various country‐ and firm‐level determinants of underpricing. Moreover, we find that the disclosure effect on IPO underpricing is moderated by the extent of a country’s capital market integration. Taken together, our findings are consistent with the view that increased disclosure regulation appears to reduce IPO underpricing and hence the cost of equity, and that institutional factors such as capital market integration play an important role in understanding the economic consequences of disclosure regulation in international IPO markets.     

首次公开发行股票抑价的原因探讨

证券市场上IPO抑价过高,股票价格与价值相背离,造成新股在市场上长期表现不佳、效率低下。我国IPO抑价程度相比较其它国家更为严重,这一问题受到了众多学者的关注。因此,只有具体分析出我国存在IPO高抑价的原因,才能制定出相应的对策,完善我国新股发行定价的政策。     

25 Years of Dutch Ipos: An Examination of Frequently Cited Ipo Anomalies Within Main Sectors and During Hot- and Cold-Issue Periods

Summary This study examines the existence of the initial underpricing and the long-term underperformance anomalies in the Dutch IPO market between 1977 and 2001. We found an average initial underpricing level of 17.6%, measured relative to a sector-specific benchmark. The median initial return was 5.0%, while there were negative initial returns in only 17% of the IPOs. During their first 3 years of listing, IPOs on average underperformed their benchmark by a cumulative 10.0%, but this result is statistically insignificant. The period 1997—beginning of 2000 was a true hot-issue period for growth stocks: their level of initial underpricing was 35.8%, compared to 9.2% during cold-issue periods. These growth IPOs also significantly underperformed their benchmark by 38.4% after 3 years.The authors are grateful to Nico van der Sar for his constructive comments and to two anonymous referees for their useful suggestions.     

An International IPO Review with a Focus on China

I. IntroductionThe academic research on financial field has undergone considerable development overthe last thirty years. Many important theories and models have been developed whichhave greatly influenced the current financial field. However, although remarkable successhas been achieved in the academic development of finance, there are still many unsolvedproblems in this area. For example, the underpricing of unseasoned new issues of commonstock is still one of the most puzzling phenomena (B…     

中小企业融资约束对R&D投入的影响分析——基于门限效应模型

在对国内外IPO定价有效性相关理论和文献进行梳理和归纳基础上,确定IPO抑价程度作为衡量新股定价有效性评价标准,并将其设为模型的被解释变量;另外,选取新股IPO中的募集资金净额、首发市盈率、上市市盈率、上市换手率、发行至上市期间市场回报率等作为解释变量。运用多元线性回归方法构建模型,样本数据来自于2005年-2016年A股市场IPO企业。实证检验结果表明,IPO抑价率与募集资金净额、发行市盈率和发行至上市期间市场回报率呈负相关关系,与上市市盈率、上市换手率呈正相关关系,揭示出我国A股市场IPO抑价现象是由一级市场与二级市场综合影响所致的。据此,提出相应的政策建议。     

市场化发行方式与我国IPO定价效率的关系研究

利用衡量IPO(Initial Public Offering)定价效率的绝对效率标准,选用1999～2008年沪深市场的IPO数据,研究我国两次新股发行方式的市场化改革与IPO定价效率的关系。结果发现:第一次市场化改革不仅没有提高我国的IPO定价效率,反而降低了IPO定价效率;第二次市场化改革取得了一定的效果,新股询价发行的方向是正确的。     

IPO破发成因的实证分析

本文使用2010年A股市场IPO数据,采用逐步线性回归法调查IPO公司的内在价值和投资行为因素对于IPO破发的影响。研究发现,除盈利能力指数以及发行中签率对于IPO破发有显著的影响,其他因素的影响均不显著。具体而言:①IPO公司上市前盈利能力指数对IPO抑价率的影响是负向的,表明业绩较好的IPO公司有着更高的市盈率,从而其破发概率较高;②中签率对于IPO抑价率的影响是负向的,表明中签率高的IPO公司股票一级市场需求满足度较高,二级市场更容易破发。造成IPO破发的主要原因在于IPO发行价格不合理,中签率高,发行制度的市场化程度不高。     

监管信息披露、机构投资者行为与新股发行定价效率

经过三年多的科创板注册制试点后,我国的证券市场进入全面注册制的新时代。新的发行制度带来更充分的信息披露与更多的机构投资者参与,必然会对新股发行的定价效率产生影响。在收集了科创板开板至2020年9月共175家上市公司数据并进行实证分析后发现:监管信息披露增加了市场可信信息,提高了机构投资者参与询价意愿与申购数量,有利于吸引更多的机构投资者参与科创板市场交易。但监管信息披露同时降低了IPO定价效率,这是由于目前询价过程中采取高价去除的密闭平均价格拍卖策略,机构投资者为了避免机会错失而倾向于压低报价,从而导致发行价格下行与抑价率提高。此外,机构投资者行为在监管信息与定价效率之间发挥着重要中介效应。研究结果为发行制度进一步优化工作提供了经验证据和政策参考。     

THE CLUSTERING OF IPO SPREADS IN KOREAN IPO MARKET: COMPETITION OR COLLUSION?

This paper examines whether the clustering of initial public offering (IPO) spreads in the IPO market occurs through competition or collusion, using the period from January 2000 to July 2006 as the analytical range. It finds that the Korean IPO market spread is clustered at 3.5% on moderately sized IPOs (i.e., IPOs between 9 (KRW billion) and 33 (KRW billion)), representing a 74% overall rate that increases gradually over time. Our empirical results refute the collusion theory. The Korean IPO market is characterised by low concentration. A 3.5% spread does not represent abnormal profits relative to other IPOs. Cost saving (i.e. an inverse U shape) is confirmed by the use of 3.5% offers. Our results also show that factors typically related to underwriters and issuers – such as proceeds, secondary sales, earnings and reputation – affect the 3.5% spread used both positively and negatively. Thus, consistent with the efficient contract theory, the use of a 3.5% contract becomes less likely as proceeds increase but becomes more likely for IPOs of over 35 (KRW billion). On the one hand, the use of a 3.5% contract becomes more likely the more insider shares an IPO contains and the higher the volatility of the stock return (an insignificant factor). On the other hand, the use of a 3.5% contract becomes less likely the higher the earnings and debt (insignificant factors) and the more reputable the underwriter. Underpricing in 3.5% IPOs is conditioned by proceeds and secondary sales, not reputation and IPO market concentration. Thus, we conclude – against the cartel theory – that there is no collusive conspiracy in the Korean IPO market and that underwriters do not reap excess profits from 3.5% IPOs.     

创业板IPO抑价与投资者情绪研究

投资者情绪是影响股票价格波动的重要因素。创业板成立时间较短,投资者相对不成熟,且创业板公司属于创业期的中小企业,面临较大的技术、市场和管理的风险,这些特征决定了创业板不同于其他市场板块的IPO抑价特征。本文选取间接反映投资者情绪的指标,通过对创业板2012年发行上市的74家公司数据的研究发现:中签率与抑价率显著负相关,首日换手率与抑价率显著正相关,发行市盈率与抑价率负相关但不显著。并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Taking firms to the stock market: IPOs and the importance of large banks in imperial Germany, 1896–1913

Large universal banks played a major role in Germany's industrialization because they provided loans to industry and thereby helped firms to overcome liquidity constraints. Previous research has also argued that they were equally important for the German stock market. This article provides quantitative and qualitative evidence that although the market for underwriters was dominated by a small oligopoly of six large banks, there was still perceptible competition, which kept fees and short‐run profits low. Another interesting finding presented here is the absence of a signalling effect to investors. Neither underpricing nor the one‐year performance was different for the IPOs issued by one of the Big Six. Thus, although the German IPO business was in the hands of a small oligopoly, investors did not benefit from the lack of competition. One explanation is that the quality of IPOs on the German stock market of the time was very good in general as a result of the competition between underwriters, but also as a result of the tight regulation of underwriting, which ensured the quality of all firms on the German stock market.     

Innovation and upheaval: early growth in Greek capital market listings and IPOs from 1880 to the Second World War in the Athens Stock Exchange†

The establishment and growth of the Greek stock market were coincident with development episodes, financial upheavals, and geographic expansions of the country's economy over the period 1880–1940. This article explores the growth of the Athens Stock Exchange through new listings and initial public offerings (IPOs) in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We examine changes in exchange governance and listing requirements. On a theme not addressed before , we find that simple listings were far more numerous than actual IPOs. IPOs in Greece remained unregulated throughout the period. Their under‐pricing became pronounced in the later parts of the period, especially the 1920s. The study presents data on ‘quasi‐IPOs’ (that is, capital increases shortly after listing) and shows that they offer a more accurate assessment of the demand for the financing of listing firms in an emerging market. Robust evidence is presented to show that as the Exchange developed it also underwent a change in character, becoming more oriented to the domestic market and catering to smaller firms in domestic manufacturing in the post‐First World War era that marked the end of early globalization.     

Housing Markets in China and Policy Implications： Comovement or Ripple Effect

The overheated housing market has recently become a top priority of the Chinese authorities and whether the ripple effect exists is key to understanding this housing issue. The present paper uses a cointegration estimation technique for six first-tier Chinese cities during the 2003-2013 period to show that the comovements among housing prices in China are fully reflected in a long-run equilibrium. Using the Toda- Yamamoto causality test, the ripple effect is found to be characterized by a lead -lag relationship. More importantly, it is found that Beo＇ing is the main source of housing price appreciation in China, and should be targeted as the regulatory object to efficiently resolve the troubles in this increasingly high housing-price era.     

Disproportionate ownership structure and IPO long-run performance of non-SOEs in China

This paper examines the relationship between ownership structures and IPO long-run performance of non-SOEs in China. Although non-SOEs underperform the market in general after IPO but the poor performance is mainly caused by the IPOs with ownership control wedge. Non-SOEs with one share one vote structure outperform those with control-ownership wedge by 30% for three years post-IPO performance in adjusted buy-and-hold returns. Non-SOEs with control-ownership wedge have higher frequency of undertaking value-destroying related party transactions. These findings suggest that non-SOEs need to improve corporate governance such as disproportionate ownership structure to better safeguard the interest of long-run shareholders.     

对我国T＋1交易制度下IPO抑价和高换手问题的探析

文章从我国特殊的交易制度T＋1的特点出发,分析了在该交易制度下,我国IPO股票的不正常高抑价和高换手率。T＋1的特点是：首日只能是中签者卖出,且涨跌无限制,而买者当日无论股价涨跌多大,都不能卖出。因此,按常理IPO股票不应该出现高抑价和高换手率,但我国的IPO股票却出现了。这种制度造成了IPO股票出现高抑价和高换手率,建议管理层应加强对现行交易制度下,不正常的新股首日高抑价和高换手的监管,防范动机不良的交易者的违法乱市行为。     

Government intervention in the capital allocation process: Excess employment as an IPO selection rule in China

We study the role of excessive employment as a selection criterion for initial public offerings (IPOs) in China. Using a large dataset of firms that are eligible for a public offering, we find that firms' that have more excess employment – that is, firms that hire too many people – are more likely to be selected for an IPO. This correlation is stronger for the private sector than for the state sector, suggesting that stock market capital is used to direct capital flows to private firms that comply with politicians' preferred labor practices. A third set of results corroborates the inefficiency of this selection rule by showing that firms with more excess labor underperform after the IPO. We conclude that a political system known for its interventionistic government policies uses its influence over the stock market to signal preferred employment practices.     

When Does Pre‐IPO Financial Reporting Trigger Post‐IPO Legal Consequences?

Prior research suggests that the fear of litigation precludes most managers from manipulating earnings in the initial public offering (IPO) setting. Yet, managers' restraint is perhaps unwarranted: research has not yet linked instances of aggressive pre‐IPO reporting to increased litigation risk. This paper investigates when aggressive IPO reporting triggers legal consequences. Examining 2,037 IPOs, we find that even when ex post evidence indicates the presence of earnings inflation, litigation is more likely to occur when investors have relied on the suspect earnings during the pricing process. Why might investors rely on some firms' abnormal accruals when valuing the IPO and yet discount the abnormal accruals of other firms? Our analyses suggest that IPO investors incorporate abnormal accrual information into IPO prices in situations where accruals are more likely to reflect information and where other sources of information to help investors make pricing decisions are lacking or are less reliable. In these situations, we find that abnormal accruals do positively correlate with future performance, validating investors' use of this information when pricing these offerings. Yet, when ex post performance reveals that these pre‐IPO abnormal accruals were in fact inflated, we find that litigation emerges to allow harmed shareholders to recover losses incurred dating back to the pricing process—importantly, investors are only harmed if they used those abnormal accruals in pricing the IPO. Collectively, our evidence indicates that litigation in response to earnings inflation does indeed surface in the IPO setting—but only when investors need it to settle the score.     

效率和公平视角下的IPO询价制改革有效性研究——来自中国A股市场的经验证据

本文以2005年1月~2012年4月沪深A股市场依据累计投标结果确定发行价的899个IPO公司为样本,引入随机前沿模型和投资者公平性模型分别进行定价效率和投资者公平性分析,据此判别询价制期间两阶段改革的成效。研究表明,询价制第一阶段改革后新股定价效率显著提高,改革前的低效率与询价制度和市场冷热度相关,而且改革后机构投资者更倾向于利用信息优势进行“择股”,中小投资者获取新股的难度有所降低,但面临更多新股“破发”风险,两类投资者间的不公平逐渐表现为风险分担不均衡;第二阶段改革后新股定价效率略微降低,中小投资者参与度的下降迫使发行人故意降低定价效率,同时机构投资者“择股”行为的增多使得两类投资者风险分担更加不均衡。