New multi-regional input–output databases for Australia – enabling timely and flexible regional analysis

ABSTRACT

Decision-making at regional scales requires timely information. Within four months of the release of official national statistics, we have produced a time-series (2008–2015) of balanced sub-national, multi-regional supply-and-use tables (MR-SUT), integrated with a set of socio-economic and environmental accounts. This was achieved using the Australian IELab, where data used in this study are available (https://ielab.info/resources/91). Four multi-regional, environmentally extended supply-use tables regionalised in different ways were produced to demonstrate the flexibility of tailoring input–output models to specific research or policy questions. Results for satellite coefficients are sensitive to the chosen regional grouping and method for regionalisation. We demonstrate the relevance of such purpose-built information to government and corporate decision-makers by analysing the indirect economic and employment consequences of a slowdown of the mining boom in Western Australia. The demonstrated innovations in flexibility and timeliness will help move past some of the limitations that have historically hindered the uptake and utility of applied input–output analysis.     

An input–output virtual laboratory in practice – survey of uptake,usage and applications of the first operational IELab

ABSTRACT

The Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory (IELab) is a collaborative cloud-computing platform for compiling large-scale, high-resolution, enviro-socio-economic accounts based on multi-region input–output tables and for conducting integrated sustainability assessment projects. These include, for example, assessments of biofuels and low-carbon construction materials or high-resolution waste modelling. This contribution provides a structured review of IELab applications that were published in either peer-reviewed journal papers or in the form of conference proceedings. The main research question posed is ‘What are the specific features of IELab that were used in the research and could the research have happened without them?’ It is investigated whether the IELab has actually and truly enabled new research. A detailed analysis of IELab characteristics and their usage is presented. The results can help with the design of new research projects and inform existing and prospective users of the IELab about the options for academic research and practical applications.     

Effects of international trade on domestic employment: an application of a global multiregional input–output supermultiplier model (1995–2011)

The effects on domestic employment of international trade and the globalisation of supply chains are as politically controversial as they are empirically inconclusive. To estimate them we extend the global multiregional input–output framework by endogenising demand for both domestic and imported intermediates, private business investment and household non-durable consumption – or equivalently, we generalise the supermultiplier formula. The model accounts, in particular, for the employment consequences of economic integration and those channelled through integration. We estimate these foreign sector effects alongside those of domestic origin using a recursive hierarchical structural decomposition analysis and statistics from the World Input–Output Database and National Accounts that cover years 1995–2011. Focusing on Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the UK, the US, Japan and China we answer the following questions: To what extent did international linkages deriving from international trade affect domestic employment? Did domestic employment benefit from economic integration?     

Controlling shareholder’s ownership,control rights and related-party transactions – analysis of regulatory effects based on board characteristics

International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal - After the share structure reform, controlling shareholder embraces more intimate related-party transactions to tunnel. Under the split of the...     

Risk spillover analysis of China’s financial sectors based on a new GARCH copula quantile regression model

This study employs a new GARCH copula quantile regression model to estimate the conditional value at risk for systemic risk spillover analysis. To be specific, thirteen copula quantile regression models are derived to capture the asymmetry and nonlinearity of the tail dependence between financial returns. Using Chinese stock market data over the period from January 2007 to October 2020, this paper investigates the risk spillovers from the banking, securities, and insurance sectors to the entire financial system. The empirical results indicate that (i) three financial sectors contribute significantly to the financial system, and the insurance sector displays the largest risk spillover effects on the financial system, followed by the banking sector and subsequently the securities sector; (ii) the time-varying risk spillovers are much larger during the global financial crisis than during the periods of the banking liquidity crisis, the stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results provide important implications for supervisory authorities and portfolio managers who want to maintain the stability of China’s financial system and optimize investment portfolios.     

Bayesian estimation of labor demand by age: theoretical consistency and an application to an input–output model

Extended input–output models require careful estimation of disaggregated consumption by households and comparable sources of labor income by sector. The latter components most often have to be estimated. The primary focus of this paper is to produce labor demand disaggregated by workers’ age. The results are evaluated through considerations of its consistency with a static labor demand model restricted with theoretical requirements. A Bayesian approach is used for more straightforward imposition of regularity conditions. The Bayesian model confirms elastic labor demand for youth workers, which is consistent with what past studies find. Additionally, to explore the effects of changes in age structure on a regional economy, the estimated age-group-specific labor demand model is integrated into a regional input–output model. The integrated model suggests that ceteris paribus ageing population contributes to lowering aggregate economic multipliers due to the rapidly growing number of elderly workers who earn less than younger workers.     

Analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s stock market based on complex networks

This paper analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 on China's stock market by using the complex network methods. Firstly, we divide the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 into four research periods. Based on the GARCH-BEKK model and the Planar Maximum Filter Graph (PMFG) algorithm, the volatility spillover network between China's stock market sectors and the stock price correlation network of China's stock market corresponding to the above four research periods are constructed. Next, from the perspective of sectors in stock market, we use various network centrality indicators to build a systematic importance comprehensive evaluation index of industry sectors in the stock market through the principal component analysis method, to explore the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident on the risk spillover effects of sectors in China's stock market. From the perspective of the overall stock market, we analyze the impact of Sino-US trade friction incident on the overall stability of the stock market through calculating the network topology indicators and conducting simulation experiments. Finally, the main factors affecting the stability mechanism of China's stock market are studied through the probit model. The results show that: (1) The risk spillover effect of various sectors in China's stock market changes significantly in different periods of Sino-US trade friction, and there are obvious cyclical rotation effects among various sectors (2) When some weighted stocks in the stock market abnormally fluctuate or suffer targeted shocks, the China's stock market's ability to maintain stability is weak, and the Sino-US trade friction will reduce the stability of China's stock market, and the higher the intensity of trade friction incident is, the more obvious the impact of the incident is. (3) The important factors that affect the abnormal fluctuations in China's stock market include four types of indicators: the stock market network structure, the fluctuation of important international stock indexes, the fluctuation of commodity prices in the international market, and the domestic macroeconomic indicators. This study provides a reference for China's financial regulatory authorities to conduct macro-prudential management, control systemic risks, and maintain the stability of financial market.     

The impact of VIX on China’s financial market: A new perspective based on high-dimensional and time-varying methods

Based on the new perspective of high-dimensional and time-varying methods, this paper analyzes the contagion effects of US financial market volatility on China’s nine financial sub-markets. The results show evidence of non-linear Granger causality from the US financial volatility (VIX) to the China’s financial markets. Increased US financial volatility has a negative next-day impact on the stock, bond, fund, interest rate, foreign exchange, industrial product and agricultural product markets, and a positive next-day impact on the gold and real estate markets. US financial volatility has the greatest impact on industrial product market, following by stock, agricultural product, fund, real estate, bond, gold, foreign exchange, and interest rates. Major risk events such as the global financial crisis can cause an enhanced contagion effect of US financial volatility to China's financial markets. This paper supports the achievements of China's actions to prevent and resolve major financial risks in the period of the COVID-19 epidemic.     

The impact of China’s one belt one road initiative on international trade in the ASEAN region

This study explores the potential effects of China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) policy on trade flows in ASEAN countries and China. We use the augmented gravity model of international trade and data on ASEAN countries and China from 2000 to 2016. The empirical results show that the coefficient of the OBOR dummy is positive and statistically significant, which implies that this policy benefits both ASEAN countries and China in terms of increased trade flows among these countries. In addition, the coefficients of other control variables, such as a common language, a common border, and distance, have the expected signs, and all are statistically significant. Thus, the OBOR policy initiative could be a promising mechanism for trade facilitation in these countries in the years to come.     

The impact of the shutdown policy on the asymmetric interdependence structure and risk transmission of cryptocurrency and China’s financial market

By taking Bitcoin, Litecoin, and China’s gold and RMB/US dollar exchange rate market as research objects, this paper apply the MF-ADCCA and time-delayed DCCA methods to study the impact of China’s mainland shutdown of cryptocurrencies trading on the non-linear interdependent structure and risk transmission of cryptocurrencies and its financial market. Empirical results show that the cross-correlation between cryptocurrencies and China’s financial market has a long memory and asymmetric multifractal characteristics. After the shutdown, the long memory between cryptocurrencies and Chinese gold has weakened, and the long memory between cryptocurrencies and the RMB/US dollar exchange rate market was strengthened. China’s shutdown policy has a certain risk prevention effect. Specifically, after the implementation of the policy, the risk transmission of cryptocurrencies to China’s financial market has weakened, but the influence of China’s financial market has gradually strengthened.     

Changes in women’s and men’s child care time in China, 2004–2011: the contributions of cohort replacement and intra-cohort change

With the rapid social and economic changes in China, increasing attention has been paid to issues related to child care, such as maternal work and child care, child care support sources, and work-family conflict. But the change in women’s and men’s child care time in the last decade remains under-researched. I use cross-sectional data from the 2004–2011 China Health and Nutrition Survey and linear decomposition regression techniques to examine the mechanisms generating structural change in child care time for men and women. I find that overall women’s child care time is slightly decreasing because the contributions of intra-cohort change and cohort replacement are offsetting one another. However, men’s childcare time is increasing during the same time period because of processes of intra-cohort change. Trends in women’s childcare time indicate a positive but small cohort replacement effect, whereas men’s childcare time is largely impacted by a positive intra-cohort change effect. These results highlight the mechanisms through which the gendered division of childcare time inside Chinese families has been shifting in the direction of increasing egalitarianism from 2004 to 2011.     

The impact of ultimate controller’s ownership on cash dividend policy based on a comparative analysis between owner-management and professional-management modes

This study uses Chinese listed firms to examine the relation between the ultimate controller’s ownership and cash dividends under different allocation modes of management rights. The empirical results show that under the professional-management mode, the ultimate controller’s ownership and dividend payments form an inverted U-shaped relation which results from the ultimate controller’s monitoring and collusion with the executive. Under the owner-management mode, the ultimate controller’s ownership and dividend payment levels assume a U-shaped relation which is attributed to its interest encroachment and convergence effect. The shape flip from professional-management to owner-management is the result of the changing opportunity cost of the controller’s dividend payments.     

Risk spillover and network connectedness analysis of China’s green bond and financial markets: Evidence from financial events of 2015–2020

This study investigated the dynamic return and volatility spillovers, together with the network connectedness analysis between China’s green bond and main financial markets. Based on a multidimensional DCC-GJRGARCH model and the spillover index method, we found significant two-way risk spillovers between the green bond market and traditional bond markets. Moreover, the green bond market was subject to one-way risk spillover from the stock and commodities markets. Meanwhile, risk spillovers between the green bond market, forex market, and monetary market were not significant. Finally, network connectedness analysis provided specific information about connectivity and strength during different subperiods corresponding to financial events. The analysis indicated that under the influence of emergencies, China’s financial market will enhance the risk-spillover level by transforming the same type of market’s internal spillover into cross-market spillover.     

The negative influence of the entrepreneur’s level of higher education on the attractiveness of European SMEs as alliance partners in Brazil: the role of practical experience and international entrepreneurial orientation

Notwithstanding the contemporary relevance of alliance strategies for SME internationalisation, especially in the case of uncertain business environments, few studies have investigated human resource issues in the context of SMEs prior to alliance formation. Even more scarce are studies looking at the impact of a manager/entrepreneur’s characteristics on pre-alliance formation, despite recognition of the expected crucial role of the entrepreneur in this context and of the strong connection between an entrepreneur and their SME. Drawing on international entrepreneurship theory and empirical observations from an exploratory study, we propose a post hoc conceptual model. The exploratory empirical part of our study employs a sample of entrepreneurs from biotechnology SMEs in the United Kingdom and Germany intending to ally in a large emerging market (i.e. Brazil). Our empirical observations suggest an anomalous (at first glance) negative association between the entrepreneur’s level of higher education (a construct at the individual level) and the attractiveness of the SME as a partner firm vis-à-vis alliance formation (a construct at the firm level). Our post hoc model emphasises the role of practical experience and the corresponding levels of international entrepreneurial orientation as theorised variables mediating the observed empirical relationship. We develop theoretical propositions, and suggest practical implications and future research directions.     

Dynamic interaction of risk–return trade-offs between oil market and China’s stock market: An analysis from the risk preferences perspective

The risk–return trade-off refers to the compensation required by investors for bearing risks, which can be viewed as the risk preference of investors in a market. The current study investigates the dynamic interdependence of risk–return trade-offs between China’s stock market and the crude oil market from the perspective of risk preference of investors, which is designed to explore the transmission process of investors’ risk preference in both markets. Specifically, this study applies the time-varying parameter GARCH-M model, namely TVP-GARCH-M model, to characterize the time-dependent risk–return trade-offs (investors’ risk preferences) in the crude oil and China’s stock markets, then examines their relationship through Granger causality tests. Results show that a variation in risk preferences of the oil market investors can dramatically cause a variation in risk preferences of the Chinese stock market investors, while the risk preference of investors in the Chinese stock market does not lead to that in the crude oil market, which is in accordance with expectations. The dynamic effect of investors’ risk appetite in the crude oil market is further examined by the TVP-VAR model. The findings of this work suggest that there generally exists a positive impact of investors’ risk preference in the oil market and that the effect is time-varying to a greater degree during the short and medium term. Moreover, responses of the Chinese stock market investors’ risk preference were more significant during the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, the empirical results remain robust when applying alternative crude oil prices and China’s stock prices.     

The impact of fertility policy on the actuarial balance of China’s urban employee basic medical insurance fund–The selective two-child policy vs. the universal two-child policy

This study aims to investigate the impact of the change in China’s fertility policy from its selective two-child policy to a universal two-child policy on the balance of its Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) fund. This study uses data obtained from the 2013 and 2015 China General Society Survey to estimate the Poisson model, and then adopts a bisexual Leslie matrix, estimated adjusted coefficients, and an actuarial model to forecast the current balance and accumulated balance of the UEBMI fund under each of the selective two-child and universal two-child policies up to the year 2060. The primary finding of this study is that this change in fertility policy results in the current balance of the UEBMI fund registering a lower deficit and eventually a surplus. Although this policy change cannot prevent the UEBMI from facing bankruptcy, the deficit in terms of the accumulated balance of the UEBMI fund will decline.