Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

Application of technology roadmaps to governmental innovation policy for promoting technology convergence

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan has actively involved itself in technology roadmapping in recent years in order to build a broad discussion basis for researchers and business-oriented people in academia, industry and government. This unique attempt is not fully tested in the context whether the “public sector's roadmaps” are viable for promoting innovation and for building tight collaborative relationships between different sectors. However, the authors have been widening the application of roadmapping activities from classical R&D management to new ways of promoting technology convergence, in which the Japanese R&D community is said to be not so accustomed. This paper depicts the governmental agency's objectives, activity details and ways of applications of technology roadmaps and roadmapping. The authors' intention is not only to introduce this kind of governmental activity to the MOT world, but rather to ignite discussions on the usefulness and effectiveness of technology roadmaps and roadmapping in a wide range of knowledge sharing.     

Technology roadmaps for transition management: The case of hydrogen energy

Technology roadmaps are increasingly used by governments to inform and promote technological transitions, such as a transition to a hydrogen energy system. This paper develops a framework for understanding how current roadmapping practice relates to emerging theories of the governance of systems innovation. In applying this framework to a case study of hydrogen roadmaps, the paper finds that roadmapping for transitions needs to place greater emphasis on ensuring good quality and transparent analytic and participatory procedures. To be most useful, roadmaps should be embedded within institutional structures that enable the incorporation of learning and re-evaluation, but in practice most transition roadmaps are one-off exercises.     

Is the transport system becoming ubiquitous? Socio-technical roadmapping as a tool for integrating the development of transport policies and intelligent transport systems and services in Finland

This paper examines the main development characteristics within the transport system as we are approaching the ubiquitous phase of the information society. Particularly the challenges in designing transport policies on a rapidly evolving technological frontier are emphasised. The theoretical background of the paper stems from policy assessment as well as futures studies, especially from technology roadmapping. The paper presents a socio-technical roadmapping method as a tool to integrate the technology developments better with societal developments and transport policy design. The method is tested with a Finnish case study, which provides three thematic, complementary roadmaps of the potential transport system technology services of the future. The roadmaps illustrate what kind of technologies, services, actors and related policy relevant knowledge is needed in satisfying the demands of transport policy development in the future's ubiquitous society. The case study reveals several changes in the transport system: pluralised number of actor roles and actor networks in the system, emergence of a new kind of business and service layer because of the new dynamic inter-linkages between the actors, and further, possibility to capture the service layer with the concept of “technology service”. The changes require also re-conceptualisation of knowledge production to support transport policies. In conclusion, the socio-technical roadmapping holds great potentials as a tool for aligning technology development with transport policy development.     

A hybrid visualisation model for technology roadmapping: bibliometrics,qualitative methodology and empirical study

Technology roadmapping offers a flexible instrument to portray development status in support of technology forecasting and assessment. This paper integrates bibliometrics with qualitative methodologies and visualisation techniques to construct a hybrid model for composing technology roadmaps. The mapping arrays details on the evolution of the technology under study and contributes to understanding the macro-technology development status. We generate a global technology roadmap for electric vehicles to demonstrate the approach in an empirical study.     

An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy

Since the first application of technology roadmapping in the late 1970s to support integrated product-technology planning, roadmapping concepts and techniques have been widely adopted at product, technology, company, sector and policy levels. The roadmapping approach is flexible and scalable, and can be customized to suit many different strategic and innovation contexts. However, this demands careful planning and design, including consideration of roadmap structure, process and participation.This paper explores the issues of how to design and architect roadmaps and roadmapping processes, which is crucial if the approach is to provide a framework for supporting effective dialogue and communication within and between organizations. The structure of the roadmap, and the process for developing and maintaining the roadmap, should be designed to serve the purpose for which the activity is intended to satisfy, providing a ‘common language and structure' for both development and deployment of strategy.     

Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules

Recently, technology roadmap has received increasing interest from academics and practitioners alike, as it is a powerful and inherently flexible approach in terms of architectural structure and construction process. However, the potential benefit may not be fully exploited due to the difficulty in customizing roadmaps to fit specific needs and/or to accommodate unusual circumstances. In response, the main purpose of this research is to provide guidance for customizing roadmaps. Specifically, we adopt a modularization method for mass customization and suggest a set of different roadmaps for different purposes such as forecasting, planning, and administration. In addition, a web-based system is developed to facilitate the roadmapping activities, which in turn ensures the creation, dissemination, and upkeep of roadmaps. With the system having a customization function, a set of customized roadmaps can be generated simply by selecting the application purpose and then meeting the input requirements. The function helps prospective users design roadmap formats and contents.     

Structuring technological information for technology roadmapping: data mining approach

Most research on technology roadmapping has focused on its practical applications and the development of methods to enhance its operational process. Thus, despite a demand for well-supported, systematic information, little attention has been paid to how/which information can be utilised in technology roadmapping. Therefore, this paper aims at proposing a methodology to structure technological information in order to facilitate the process. To this end, eight methods are suggested to provide useful information for technology roadmapping: summary, information extraction, clustering, mapping, navigation, linking, indicators and comparison. This research identifies the characteristics of significant data that can potentially be used in roadmapping, and presents an approach to extracting important information from such raw data through various data mining techniques including text mining, multi-dimensional scaling and K-means clustering. In addition, this paper explains how this approach can be applied in each step of roadmapping. The proposed approach is applied to develop a roadmap of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology to illustrate the process practically.     

融合情景分析的产业技术路线图集成规划过程研究

针对目前产业层次的技术路线图在产业环境等预测方面存在的问题,分析了基于情景分析的产业技术路线图的内涵和特点,在此基础上,依据产业技术路线图集成规划过程,提出了融合情景分析的产业技术路线图集成规划过程分析框架,对情景分析在产业技术路线图集成规划过程中计划阶段、开发阶段、实施与更新阶段的主要任务和支持方法进行了重点讨论。     

技术路线图方法探索与实践应用研究

技术路线图作为一种预测和描绘新兴技术发展路径的工具,已被广泛应用于企业、产业、国家的技术发展规划中,以减少创新和规划过程中的不确定性。然而,目前技术路线图的研究和制定常以定性方法为主,过分依赖专家经验。在剖析技术路线图研究机理的基础上,将文献计量和专利分析引入技术路线图应用中,以减少技术路线图对专家经验的依赖。构建基于文献计量、专利分析和技术路线图的新兴技术产业未来发展分析框架,并以染料敏化太阳能光伏技术产业为例进行了实证研究,验证了该分析框架的可行性和有效性。     

Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study: The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry

If technological roadmapping is important in the process of rapid technology commercialization, and if a method tailored to roadmapping nascent disruptive technologies does not exist, and if these very same disruptive technologies portend to be the future economic engines for firms, countries, and regions, then there is cause for concern. This article seeks to shed some light on the process in industrial disruptive technology roadmapping by focusing on the fundamental differences between sustaining and disruptive technologies. This article investigates the utility of theoretical and practitioner traditional technology roadmapping tools in an international industrial roadmapping effort focusing on microtechnology and top-down nanotechnology. I then modify the traditional technology roadmapping approaches generating a model for an industrial worldwide disruptive technology roadmapping process. I utilize the International Industrial Microsystems and Top-Down Nanosystems Roadmap (IIMTDNR) effort, which included nearly 400 people, from nearly as many firms, from over five continents and was developed over a 5-year period. The IIMTDNR process is used to provide the basis for a model for a commercial disruptive technology roadmapping process.     

Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector

Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a growing technique widely used for strategy planning and aligning technology with overall business objectives. Technology roadmaps are extensively used in many diverse fields at product, technology, industry, company and national levels. An increasing number of articles published on TRM and technology roadmaps indicate that there is a growing attention for TRM among the researchers from academia, industry and government. In this article, an overview of the application of TRM in renewable energy sector has been provided. After survey of the relevant academic literature and industry roadmaps, we tried to group the roadmaps related to the renewable energy technologies into national, industry/sector and organizational level roadmaps. Research findings indicate that goals and objectives of renewable energy roadmaps are different at these three levels. At national level, roadmaps focus on future energy security, energy dependence, energy policy formulation and environment protection. At industry/sector level, roadmaps are used to identify vision, common needs and evaluate barriers, constraints and risks faced by the industry from technical, political and commercial aspects. Organizational roadmap focuses on evaluation and prioritization of R&D projects to achieve the business goals. Similarly different methods, tools and approaches are used to develop roadmaps at different levels. Various other characteristics of these roadmaps are also discussed and analyzed. Research findings also indicate that greater numbers of roadmaps are developed for those renewable energy technologies undergoing rapid growth. Moreover, most of these roadmaps are developed in the regions where more research, development and deployment activities of renewable energy technologies is taking place.     

Roadmapping for prioritisation of smartphone feature requirements based on user experiences

Since the life cycle of smartphones is becoming shorter, users are demanding new and improved smartphone features for updated smartphones, but it is difficult to know which features are the most important to users. In Internet user communities, users increasingly review smartphone functions and share information about their experiences such as complaints, problems, and satisfaction, and these user experiences have been fruitful sources for manufacturers that lead to smartphone improvements. Focusing on these user experiences, this paper proposes a systematic roadmapping process including prioritisation of smartphone feature requirements. By prioritising smartphone feature requirements, new and improved versions of smartphones that reflect user needs can be planned based on a product–market roadmap. The systematic approach consists of three parts: user-driven quality function deployment (QFD), a frequent pattern (FP)-tree algorithm, and a product–market roadmap. First, we collected data extracted from text mining in Internet user communities to construct a user-driven QFD. Second, using user experiences related to smartphone features, we applied the FP-tree algorithm to algorithmically derive a priority list of smartphone feature requirements. Finally, based on the result of the FP-tree of smartphones, we proposed guidelines to construct a product–market roadmap. It is expected that a versioning strategy can be formulated through this prioritised product–market roadmap. Furthermore, covering each step from data collection to roadmapping, this study suggests a systematic process for prioritisation of smartphone feature requirements based on user experiences.     

Business planning based on technological capabilities: Patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping

This research responds to the needs of technology-driven business by focusing on how firms can find new business opportunities based on their technological capabilities. It proposes a technology-driven roadmapping processes that starts from capability analysis for technology planning and ends with business opportunity analysis for market planning. We suggest the use of patent data as a proxy measure of technological capability for this purpose and develop four analysis modules — Monitoring, Collaboration, Diversification, and Benchmarking — to support decision-making during the process. Various analysis techniques such as text-mining, network analysis, citation analysis and index analysis are applied to discover meaningful implications from the patent data, which are summarized in four maps — Actor-similarity map, Actor-relations map, Technology-industry map, and Technology-affinity map. For the purpose of illustration, RFID-related patents are collected and the 18 firms with the most patents used, focusing especially on the third biggest. We believe using roadmapping and patent analysis together can play complementary roles for each other. Putting roadmapping techniques together with patent analysis can increase the objectivity and reliability of technology roadmap, while using patent analysis restricted to technological information together with roadmapping techniques can ensure that a more valuable breadth of strategic information is extracted from patents.     

Systemic analysis of UK foresight results: Joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping

This paper proposes a new systems approach to foresight studies. The paper will first indicate the complex and conflicting nature of long-term decision-making process. Then, the need for systems approach will be highlighted by the analysis of 1995 UK Delphi survey results and the scenarios of 2000 UK foresight scenarios. The paper proposes two methodologies, namely Integrated Management Model (IMM) and Roadmapping, in order to overcome challenges introduced by the multidimensional characteristics and complex nature of foresight studies. Based on systemic approach, IMM offers a useful way of developing long-term normative policies and strategies and their transformations into actions by considering necessary changes in organizational structures and behaviors. In addition, roadmapping is used to capture, manipulate and manage information to decrease complexity in the foresight by constructing roadmaps. In the paper, IMM and roadmapping are employed first to analyze UK foresight results and then to develop a new methodology to formulate Delphi events and scenarios for the successful implementation of foresight. This paper also promotes the integrated use of foresight techniques such as scenarios and Delphi rather than one for another.     

An analysis of factors improving technology roadmap credibility: A communications theory assessment of roadmapping processes

In recent years, many industrial firms have been able to use roadmapping as an effective process methodology for projecting future technology and for coordinating technology planning and strategy. Firms potentially realize a number of benefits in deploying technology roadmapping (TRM) processes. Roadmaps provide information identifying which new technologies will meet firms' future product demands, allowing companies to leverage R&D investments through choosing appropriately out of a range of alternative technologies. Moreover, the roadmapping process serves an important communication tool helping to bring about consensus among roadmap developers, as well as between participants brought in during the development process, who may communicate their understanding of shared corporate goals through the roadmap. However, there are few conceptual accounts or case studies have made the argument that roadmapping processes may be used effectively as communication tools. This paper, therefore, seeks to elaborate a theoretical foundation for identifying the factors that must be considered in setting up a roadmap and for analyzing the effect of these factors on technology roadmap credibility as perceived by its users. Based on the survey results of 120 different R&D units, this empirical study found that firms need to explore further how they can enable frequent interactions between the TRM development team and TRM participants. A high level of interaction will improve the credibility of a TRM, with communication channels selected by the organization also positively affecting TRM credibility.     

Developing scenario-based technology roadmap in the big data era: an utilisation of fuzzy cognitive map and text mining techniques

ABSTRACT

Scenario-based technology roadmaps (TRM) have been used to analyse future uncertainties in the technology planning phase. However, there is a limitation in the existing related studies that the internal and external factors of the increasing uncertainty of the future are not considered. In response, this study proposes a framework that analyses the textual big data to understand the relationship between factors that may affect future uncertainty and build a TRM through scenarios based on these relationships. To do this, Fuzzy Cognitive Map technique, which analyses causal relationships between various factors in fuzzy graph form, is incorporated into TRM. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework, an illustrative case study was conducted using real data for an unmanned aerial vehicle. This study is expected to help integrate and utilise big data effectively in the technology planning stage.     

基于综合集成方法论的产业技术路线图研究

提出产业技术路线图是一个开放的复杂巨系统,应当用综合集成方法去解释技术路线图绘制过程的共识涌现现象。阐明了产业技术路线图绘制过程就是一个复杂系统建模过程,把产业技术路线图研讨会看成综合集成研讨厅体系,因此应当运用钱学森提出的处理开放复杂巨系统的方法——从定性到定量的综合集成方法。最后建立了产业技术路线图共识系统涌现模型。     

Technology roadmaps: Infrastructure for innovation

The value of technology roadmaps for technology planning, technology selection, and technological innovation has become widely recognized. In this article, we explore how technology roadmaps can support virtual innovation and innovation factories. We also consider how technology landscapes can provide metrics for technology roadmaps. We explore how knowledge of patterns of technological evolution can be incorporated into technology roadmaps to detect opportunities for innovation and possible market limitations. Finally, we discuss how agent models can provide the basis for simulation and possibly for self-organization.