Interpreting foresight process impacts: Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of ‘foresight systems’

Foresight programmes are usually evaluated in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts, notwithstanding the difficulty of measuring such impacts. However, indirect and/or unanticipated impacts that fall outside the scope of specific programme goals and objectives have also been reported. These are mainly impacts associated with the foresight process itself, i.e. with the way in which foresight exercises are designed and implemented. These impacts typically fall in areas such as:

• Knowledge creation, diffusion and absorption;

• Social capital and networking;

• The evolution of strategies to cope with or escape from the negative consequences of a ‘risk society’.

The diversity of the above areas suggests that foresight process impacts should be interpreted through the lenses of epistemology, sociology, political science, management science and organisational theory. In parallel, given that developments in the above spheres are strongly associated with the evolution of ‘participatory knowledge societies’, this paper presents an interpretation of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework that attempts to characterise such societies.

Additionally, such an interpretation is conceived as a step towards the development of a conceptual framework aimed at understanding the dynamics of ‘foresight systems’. This framework should be capable of explaining the interdependencies and inter-relationships between system elements such as actors, processes, inputs, outputs and impacts, as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment.

The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises that assesses the degree to which they promote the development of ’participatory knowledge societies’.

The paper is based primarily on research carried out during the preparation of a PhD thesis entitled “Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society”. The research mainly involved a literature review of available documentation on past and present foresight programmes and their results.     

Orchestrating knowledge-creating networks: lessons from Taiwan's health services sector

The purpose of this study is to integrate transaction cost theory and the knowledge-based view of the firm to explore why and how a network's hub organisations orchestrate their members to create knowledge in the health services setting. Guided by organisation theory, this study examines a theoretical model at the organisation level, through a qualitative case study of Taiwan's health services sector. In addition to the discovery of a new sub-construct, the findings provide preliminary evidence that, both, transaction cost and knowledge-based factors influence the health services network as per the study's propositions. This study contributes to strategic technology management research by providing a conceptual model to describe and evaluate health services networks' orchestrating process for knowledge creation. The framework also provides a better understanding of, and a practical approach to managing networks to improve knowledge creation.     

Foresight in corporate organisations

Strategy formulation is strictly intertwined with the analysis of the likely evolution of the business environment, in order to detect promptly the opportunities and the threats brought about by emerging trends and to deal with them properly (strategic foresight). Today many companies put much effort into strategic foresight, and also in the literature on strategy there is a growing attention to strategic foresight. However, it still seems there is a lack of a general framework of analysis that clearly defines how all the foresight activities should be carried out in a firm and should be integrated in an organic way, in order to support strategic decision makers at corporate, business and functional levels. This is the main issue we have taken into account through the study of some relevant European and US firms that have established foresight units, in order to deliver support for long term strategy formulation.     

Improving the business impact of foresight

Achieving an impact on business decision-makers with foresight does not appear to be an easy task. Therefore, the Macro Trends team at Deutsche Bank Research has formulated some criteria to guide foresight projects. They should aim to produce plausibility, provide convenience and inspiration as well as an appropriate time perspective with regard to the content of foresight results. In addition, a structured way of producing and delivering foresight, a seamless inclusion in organisational procedures, a high level of interaction with decision-makers, ideational entrepreneurship, innovation regarding communication with business people, and persistence and synchronisation with the business organisation are the key criteria for achieving a higher impact from foresight projects. To live up to these criteria, the Macro Trends team has developed a ‘trend map’ which provides a conceptual aggregation of trends – to provide orientation for decision-makers and stakeholders.     

Improving the business impact of foresight

Achieving an impact on business decision-makers with foresight does not appear to be an easy task. Therefore, the Macro Trends team at Deutsche Bank Research has formulated some criteria to guide foresight projects. They should aim to produce plausibility, provide convenience and inspiration as well as an appropriate time perspective with regard to the content of foresight results. In addition, a structured way of producing and delivering foresight, a seamless inclusion in organisational procedures, a high level of interaction with decision-makers, ideational entrepreneurship, innovation regarding communication with business people, and persistence and synchronisation with the business organisation are the key criteria for achieving a higher impact from foresight projects. To live up to these criteria, the Macro Trends team has developed a 'trend map' which provides a conceptual aggregation of trends - to provide orientation for decision-makers and stakeholders.     

Interactive planning for strategy development in academic-based cooperative research enterprises

The evolution of strategic management concludes that formulation and implementation is an emergent process. In today's knowledge-based society this requires that managers develop more creative ways to align strategies with core competencies to maximise organisational performance and efficiencies. This paper evaluates the approach taken by a university-based research collaborative to illustrate an integrated planning process that supports strategic management in higher education environments. Utilising the concepts of road mapping and interactive planning, this case study provides insights into the participative approach used and provides a modification of several conceptual models to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of this process.     

客户知识的关键维度及其管理过程

客户知识成为企业维持持续竞争优势的关键资源。理解客户知识的内涵和关键维度是企业进行客户知识管理的前提和基础，论文结合不同行业企业的实践经验，提出客户知识应包括四个关键维度：用于客户的知识、来自客户的知识、关于客户的知识和共同创造的知识，并针对每个雏度分析了企业当前运用的管理方法，基于此．界定了客户知识管理的概念，构建了客户知识管理的过程模型，为企业有效进行客户知识管理提供参考。     

Sources of strategic fit in high-tech firms

This study analyses the concept of strategic fit as a factor explaining organisational performance. We propose that strategic fit should include aspects of environment perception as well as the gap between planning processes and strategic implementation. Studying the firm's capacity to reduce this gap, we identify various organisational capabilities and analyse their relationships. Through managers’ responses from a sample of firms in European high-technology sectors, we find sufficient empirical evidence to affirm that strategic fit facilitates improvement in organisational performance. We also observe that strategic flexibility, real options and organisational learning are sources of strategic fit. So-called learning organisations facilitate generation of options that give the organisation the strategic flexibility needed to achieve fit with the environment. Strategic flexibility is defined in both the adaptive and anticipative sense. Our article thus offers a new perspective to contribute to better understanding of strategic fit and its antecedents.     

Environmental uncertainty,foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study

This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty - complexity and dynamism - that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities - and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty - as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging.     

Absorptive capacity and firm performance: an integrative framework of benefits and downsides

Research underscores the important role a firm's absorptive capacity plays in developing knowledge, promoting open innovation, managing alliances, facilitating organisational learning, creating strategic variety, and enhancing financial performance. However, prior research often overlooks how absorptive capacity could increase a firm's costs associated with building this capacity, perpetuate and even increase inertia because of reduced variety and limited organisational search, handicap internal knowledge development, and complicate knowledge sharing. Research also ignores the growing complexity of absorptive capacity, a factor that could reduce a firm's gains from exploiting external knowledge. Our discussion builds on the knowledge-based view to provide an integrative framework for the performance effects of absorptive capacity. Based on different benefits and downsides of absorptive capacity at multiple levels of analysis, it points to an inverted U-shaped relationship between absorptive capacity and a firm's financial performance, highlighting several promising avenues for future research.     

Developing a transformative business strategy through the combination of design thinking and futures literacy

The paper describes a systematic methodology that combines futures literacy and design thinking to enable the collective discovery of new and disruptive business niches. It is a participatory approach centred on design know-how, which promotes innovative forms of engagement and articulation. The proposed methodology balances experience in designing and applying foresight approaches and futures literacy knowledge labs together with a multidisciplinary understanding of institutional context.

The methodology fosters decision making processes that embrace complexity and treat uncertainty as a resource, thus improving an organisations’ capacity to use the future to expand its understanding of the present. It has been applied at the Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), an organisation where institutionalised foresight and technology assessment takes place in Brazil, especially in support of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) policy design and implementation, as well as evaluation. However, its clients also include different ministries within government and industries alike.

The article outlines the ways in which the organisation involved all its collaborators in jointly rethinking its future, building upon collective intelligence, narrative building, sense making, framing and reframing. The design principles called for these experiments to follow a collective learning curve that enable a renewed focus on systemic and transformative innovation. The crafting of new strategic questions was inspired by jointly expanding the understanding of the imaginary futures of the interrelated systems in which the organisation might play a role. As a consequence, new and disruptive possible roles for the institution were identified. These insights then informed the assessment and choices for the redesign of the business strategy.

This paper presents the methodology for combining design thinking and futures literacy, the application of this methodology to CGEE, and the major findings of the overall exercise. Readers will find out about the impact of this exercise on the organisation’s approach to both its own strategic positioning and to the design and implementation of foresight and strategic studies. The paper concludes by outlining the implications of the proposed methodology for foresight practice.     

Evolutionary policy targeting: towards a conceptual framework for effective policy intervention

This special issue reflects on innovation and industrial policy from the premise that economic growth can be based on the permanent transformation of an economic system via the emergence and/or transformation of multi-agent structures and their inherent competences and knowledge base. The process of emergence or transformation is conceived as being the result of entrepreneurial effort, or entrepreneurs reacting to external stimuli in a way that takes advantage of an evolving knowledge base. The same process, however, can be undermined by both market and institutional failures. Past research has clearly indicated the importance of institutional structures for innovation, but also that structures as they exist may not be ideal: some institutions involved in innovation may provide the wrong incentives, faulty information, or allocate insufficient resources to accomplish their goals or mandates; and they may fail to reduce uncertainty. The paper asks whether and how a targeted, co-evolutionary approach can help overcome a lack of dynamic coordination and other failures that originate in coincidence with the emergence of a complex form of industrial organisation, be it an innovation system, cluster or a new industrial sector. More specifically, it builds upon the extended industry life cycle (EILC) model and the notion of evolutionary targeting to explore the potential benefits (and drawbacks) of targeting biotechnology innovation systems (BISs).     

Research into ambidextrous R&D in product development – new product development at a precision device maker: a case study

Through research into new product development processes at a precision device maker, this paper discusses the skilful management of knowledge boundaries that lie between various organisations, and between specialised human skills and functions that make up a project organisation, and presents the ways in which new organisational capabilities are brought about for the development of new products as exploratory activities that dynamically merge and integrated the various knowledge within a company. This paper describes some of the implications derived from analysis and observations of the new organisational forms of the company's ambidextrous R&D management which the company uses to engage in both ‘uncertainty management (exploration)’ and ‘existing product management (exploitation)’, through the partnering of its existing formal organisations and dynamic structuring of diverse multifunctional teams formed as projects spanning different specialisations and capabilities.     

Strategic planning, strategic management, strategic foresight: The seminal work of H. Igor Ansoff

H. Igor Ansoff was the prominent reference in the corporate strategy field, especially during the 1960s and 1970s. His bestseller, Corporate Strategy, was the first to give a conceptual framework and a tool box to top managers, consultants and scholars. Recognized as the real pioneer of the field, he was seen by Henry Mintzberg as also the leader of the strategic planning school. The aim of this short article is to show that he was also the father of strategic management and a leader who gave an impressive set of concepts and ideas to promote an integrative and flexible view of strategic planning, strategic foresight, organizational structures and processes.     

Transfer sciences: management of distributed knowledge production

This paper is concerned to develop the notion of transfer science to take account of what is perceived to be the emergence of a new mode of knowledge production. The new mode which is characterised by the production of knowledge in the context of application, by transdisciplinarity, by homogeneity and organisational diversity, by enhanced social accountability and reflexivity, and by new forms of quality control. The thrust of the new mode of knowledge production is to call into question conventional notions of knowledge transfer and focuses instead on the organisational and managerial implications of the emergence of a socially distributed knowledge production system. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the policy implications of the emergence of the new mode of production. Needed in the new mode are science and technology policies which promote institutional permeability and policies which enable governments, acting through their civil service to act as brokers in the new knowledge production process. Such brokerage is necessary to enhance permeability between institutions within a particular country but also to increase co-operation and collaboration between institutions across countries.     

The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies

This paper focuses on exploring the potential and empirically observable value creation of strategic foresight activities in firms. We first review the literature on strategic foresight, innovation management and strategic management in order to identify the potential value contributions. We use survey data from 77 large multinational firms to assess how much value is generated from formalized strategic foresight practices in these firms. We show that it is possible to capture value through (1) an enhanced capacity to perceive change, (2) an enhanced capacity to interpret and respond to change, (3) influencing other actors, (4) and through an enhanced capacity for organizational learning.     

Integrating the critical success factor method into the business process outsourcing decision

This paper outlines a framework that integrates the critical success factor (CSF) method into the outsourcing decision. The framework builds upon the generic outsourcing evaluation methodology and uses the CSF method as a means of evaluating outsourcing at the business process level. The findings from applying the outsourcing framework in a retail bank are presented. The research found the application of the framework delivered positive results in business process outsourcing decisions. As well as linking outsourcing with organisational strategy, it provided a mechanism and language for prioritising which processes require attention through either internal improvement or outsourcing. However, the findings identified a number of challenges with applying the framework including defining processes and understanding complex interdependencies between business processes prior to outsourcing.     

Organisational regulatory legitimacy,entrepreneurial orientation,and SME innovation: an optimal distinctiveness perspective

The optimal distinctiveness perspective argues that firms face competing pressures to be both ‘like’ and ‘different from’ their peers. On the one hand, institutional scholars assert that firms need to be similar to peers in order to gain legitimacy. On the other hand, strategy scholars insist that firms need to strive to be different to gain competitive advantage. In order to enrich the optimal distinctiveness perspective, the present study builds a conceptual model that addresses the relationships among organisational regulatory legitimacy, entrepreneurial orientation, and SME innovation under the context of China’s transition economy. Our empirical results show that organisational regulatory legitimacy has an inverted-U relationship with SME innovation. Further, entrepreneurial orientation strengthens this inverse-U shaped relationship. That is, entrepreneurial orientation magnifies both the positive and the negative effect of organisational regulatory legitimacy on SME innovation. This study echoes to the call to conduct broader optimal distinctiveness research by integrating institutional theory and strategic management. Furthermore, our findings provide new evidence for the strategic balance perspective of optimal distinctiveness.     

Adaptive Foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies

Adaptive Foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning. Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multi-disciplinary exploration and participation. The adaptive planning paradigm provides a natural guide for navigation of this complex landscape: one should consider whether strategic decisions should be deferred until more information is available and simultaneously whether to invest in (real) options which would facilitate the implementation of such decisions if taken some future time. This does not mean that all strategic decisions should be deferred. Rather it is the careful combining of commitment and opportunism that best enables actors to pursue their super-ordinate values and objectives. Compared to conventional foresight, Adaptive Foresight thus favours a more modest interpretation of the collective ability to “shape the future” and stresses the need to adapt to actions by others. Here it is equally important to be able to exploit the upside of uncertainty as to abate its downside. The purpose of this paper is to achieve a conceptual consolidation of Adaptive Foresight, to review in a fairly hands-on way methodological experience thus far, and to outline the substantial methodological challenges ahead.     

基于知识系统工程观的企业集群核心能力解析

本文首次运用知识系统工程的基本原理,系统而深入地剖析了企业集群核心能力的构成要素与结构框架,构建了包括知识-能力、技术-经济和社会-文化三个维度的企业集群核心能力结构模型,并确定了每一个维度所包含的核心能力要素。