经济增长与税收负担、税制结构关系的脉冲响应分析

本文运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法,考察了1994—2007年期间我国税收负担、税制结构(直接税与间接税之比)与我国经济增长的长期动态影响特征。冲击响应的分析结果表明:(1)在我国现行税制下,税收负担和税制结构对经济增长的影响很微弱,但经济增长对税收负担和税制结构的影响很大——经济的快速增长一方面使得税收负担的增长更为容易,另一方面使得直接税的比重迅速提高;(2)税收负担的增长促进了直接税的比重提高,但直接税的比重提高抑止了税收负担的加重。     

税收结构与经济增长的实证分析—兼论我国的最优直接税/间接税结构

直接税包括农业税收对经济增长有显着的负作用,而流转税等间接税对经济增长的影响不显着;我国使经济增长最大化的最优直接税规模是占GDP的35%,最优的直接税/间接税比率是0.45,目前直接税和直接税/间接税比率均已超过其最优数量,应适当削减直接税。     

中国的直接税和间接税收入与经济增长的关系

直接税收入和间接税收入各自与经济增长的关系是税收学研究的一个重要领域,也是目前争论比较大的问题。文章针对以上问题,用Granger因果检验和VAR模型检验来探讨中国发展过程中直接税间接税收入与GDP总量之间的因果关系,定量分析直接税收入和间接税收入对GDP增长的影响是否真有不同、有何不同,从而指导直接税、间接税改革问题。     

后危机时代中国减税政策的宏观影响和政策效应评估——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

税收政策作为宏观调控的重要方面,是实现供给侧改革、稳定经济增长和就业的重要手段.运用动态随机一般均衡模型分析间接税和直接税的减税政策,模型模拟结果显示:减税政策能够通过拉动企业投资和居民消费,起到抚平经济周期和带动经济增长的作用;间接税可以在短期内对经济起到明显的刺激效果;而直接税的长期作用更为明显;直接税减税政策的乘数效果大于政府消费性支出,而间接税减税的乘数效果则低于政府消费性支出.因此,短期内政府消费性支出政策效果更为明显;但在长期,直接税减税的作用更为突出.     

我国税收结构与经济增长的相关性分析

就税收与经济增长的关系看，农业税、关税等与经济增长负相关；直接税与经济增长显著负相关，间接税的符号为正．但不显著异于零，增加我国的直接税不利于经济增长，提高间接税收占GDP的比重不影响经济增长。     

间接税改革的宏观经济效应:一般均衡分析

建立一个研究中国整体经济的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型.对我国现行税制间接税税率调整,间接税向直接税转化,间接税调整对储蓄、投资的影响等措施的宏观经济效应进行分析,提出一些可供选择的税收政策改革方案.在此基础上,指出了本CGE模型的局限与改进方向.     

公共转移支付对再分配及贫困的影响研究

本文首先假设增加的公共转移支付有两种筹资方式使财政收支保持平衡,一种筹资选择为增加家庭和企业的直接税,另一种筹资选择为增加间接税,并使用计量估计的微观模拟模型与可计算一般均衡模型相结合的自上而下和自下而上方法,评估公共转移支付增加对收入不平等和贫困的效应。结果显示:如果增加公共转移支付的筹资方式为直接税,GDP可能会随着消费的增加而增加;直接税筹资只有很小的劳动供给减少效应;直接税筹资的不平等指标下降程度比间接税筹资下降程度大;如果增加1倍的公共转移支付的筹资方式为直接税,贫困发生率下降2%,采用间接税筹资方式,贫困发生率下降1%。     

资金流量表、生产税和间接税的经济归宿

本文利用资金流量表分析框架,以生产税净额代表间接税,探讨间接税对居民部门收入的影响机制,重点分析在国民收入初次分配领域中企业部门和居民部门的间接税税收负担情况。研究发现,虽然间接税名义上来自企业部门,但由于存在着税负转嫁,居民是真正意义上间接税的负税人,居民部门是间接税的经济归宿。在税收收入规模增加的过程中,居民部门以隐蔽的方式贡献了其中相当大一部分,间接税通过税负转嫁减少了居民收入初次分配与最终消费。逐步降低间接税比重、提升直接税比重不仅是税制建设的目标,也是优化税收负担、明确税收归宿的内在要求。各项税种改革应该互相衔接、互相配合,构建间接税和直接税合理匹配的内部循环机制,是优化间接税与直接税之间的比例关系的根本途径。     

以改革税制结构推动我国城市经济发展

1.调整税制结构。调整直接税和间接税的比例,逐步加大直接税在税收总额中的比重。使所得税的功能、作用和地位得到充分发挥,逐步建立我国以流转税和所得税为双主体的税制结构。2.税种、税基与税率改革。(1)增值税:扩大征税范围,尽快实行消费型增值税,彻底解决重复征税和因资本有机构成不同而引起的税负失衡问题,使国内产品真正以无税成本进入国际市场,参与公平竞争。(2)消费税:调整消费税的征税范围,非消费品和普通消费品应停止征税;提高能源、水资源等资源性消费品、环境高耗消费品、奢侈消费品、高档消费品的税率;改价内税为价外税,由生产…     

金人庆认为当前减税对经增长作用不大

国家税务总局局长金人庆1月10日在国务院新闻办公室举行的记者招待会上说,当前中国实施减税政策对促进经济增长作用有限。他认为,目前中国的税制以间接税为主,而以消费税为代表的直接税的覆盖面不广,因此减税直接给消费者带来的好处     

Foreign direct investment in a world of multiple taxes

Governments impose multiple taxes on foreign investors, though studies of the effect of tax policy on the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) focus almost exclusively on corporate income taxes. This paper examines the impact of indirect (non-income) taxes on FDI by American multinational firms, using affiliate-level data that permit the introduction of controls for parent companies and affiliate industries. Indirect tax burdens significantly exceed the foreign income tax obligations of foreign affiliates of American companies. Estimates imply that 10% higher local indirect tax rates are associated with 7.1% lower affiliate assets, which is similar to the effect of 10% higher income tax rates. Affiliate output falls by 2.9% as indirect taxes rise by 10%, while higher income taxes have more modest output effects. High corporate income tax rates depress capital/labor ratios and profit rates of foreign affiliates, whereas high indirect tax rates do not. These patterns reveal the impact of indirect taxes and suggest the mechanisms by which direct and indirect taxes affect FDI.     

Building a computable general equilibrium tax model for Italy

In this paper, we develop a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium tax model for Italy allowing for a number of fiscal tools. We illustrate the methodology for modelling and accommodating the full range of direct and indirect taxes into the national general equilibrium model. In particular, we build a commodity tax matrix by commodity, source, user and tax type; and a production tax matrix by industry and tax type. We also put a special emphasis on the institutional sector accounts, incorporating a detailed system of equations. Our model provides a powerful tool for acquiring new insights in fiscal policy analysis, through the assessment of tailored tax reforms, which can consist of either changes in tax rates and tax bases for indirect and direct taxes. Finally, to validate the model we perform an equalizing Value-Added-Tax rates reform. We find that a budget-neutral uniform tax rate reform would be GDP and welfare improving. However, results across agents and sectors vary.     

On Cost Benefit Rules for Green Taxes

This paper concerns the welfare effects of a green tax reform in a dynamic general equilibrium model with preexisting taxes on labor income and capital income. In comparison with previous studies on green taxes in dynamic models, which have focused their main attention on long run effects of such reforms, I derive cost benefit rules for a change in the tax mix by using the properties of the value function in optimal control theory. This enables me to relate the welfare effect of a change in the tax mix to responses in employment, the capital stock, (flow) emissions and the stock of pollution along the whole general equilibrium path. Another contribution of the paper is to examine under what conditions an emission tax, which is set permanently below the marginal damage of pollution, is welfare superior to an emission tax path that fully internalizes the external effect.     

增值税扩围改革的价格影响与福利效应

"十二五"规划建议明确将"扩大增值税征收范围,相应调减营业税等税收"作为下一步税制改革的重要内容。文章通过建立价格模型分析了不同的扩围方案对减少重复征税和降低产品税负的影响,并利用住户调查数据、投入产出方法和实际税收数据测算了增值税扩围改革的福利效应。研究发现,将增值税扩大到生产性服务业将改善居民福利,但具有累退性;全面扩围的福利改善作用小于生产性扩围,但具有累进性。     

Welfare impacts of equal-yield tax reforms in the UK economy

A multisectoral dynamic general equilibrium tax model with and without announcement effects for open and closed capital markets is used to evaluate efficiency gains and transitional effects from equal-yield tax reforms for seven different taxes in the UK economy. Impacts of an unanticipated tax reform on investment, capital accumulation, output and employment are compared to those of anticipated tax reforms. Households, producers, traders, investors and the government are found to be more capable of adjusting their economic behaviour when tax announcements are made in advance. In equal-yield tax experiments welfare gains up to 1.4% of base year GDP can occur by removing distortions in taxes. Welfare loss of up to 2.05% of it can happen if a less distortionary tax, such as the labour income tax is replaced by more distortionary taxes. These simulation results hold whether the capital markets are closed or open.     

THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF A SWITCH FROM DIRECT TO INDIRECT TAXES: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of switching the tax burden from direct to indirect taxes in an empirical model based on 22 OECD countries. The Engle-Yoo three step procdure is employed to estimate both the short and long run effects of such a tax switch. The results reveal that a switich from direct to indirect taxes is likely to generate efficiency gans in the short run which lead to higher levels of aggragate output. However, for the majority of countries in the sample the tax changes have no impact on the level of economic activity in the long run.     

间接税对供需失衡的影响分析

从20世纪90年代后期开始到现在,我国同时出现了两个重要的经济现象,一是间接税高速增长,二是宏观经济供需失衡。本文通过建立一般均衡模型和实证分析,研究了这两种经济现象的内在联系,本文的结论是,征收生产型增值税同时抑制投资和消费,整体上对供需失衡的影响不显著;营业税由于税收容易转嫁、存在双重征税的原因,其增长严重强化了供需失衡局面;以消费为税基的税种全部是间接税,消费平均税率的提高强化了供需失衡局面。     

Tax Policy and Human Capital Formation with Public Investment in Education

This paper studies the effects of distortionary taxes and public investment in an endogenous growth OLG model with knowledge transmission. Fiscal policy affects growth in two respects: first, work time reacts to variations of prospective tax rates and modifies knowledge formation; second, public spending enhances labour efficiency but also stimulates physical capital through increased savings. It is shown that Ramsey-optimal policies reduce savings due to high tax rates on young generations, and are not necessarily growth-improving with respect to a pure private system. Non-Ramsey policies that shift the burden on adults are always growth-improving due to crowding-in effects: the welfare of all generations is unambiguously higher with respect to a private system, and there generally exists a continuum of non-optimal tax rates under which long-run growth and welfare are higher than with the Ramsey-optimal policy.     

基于可计算的一般均衡模型的我国碳税政策“双重红利”研究

建立了分析我国减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税的可计算的一般均衡模型,分析碳税政策的双重红利。结果显示:为减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税,对社会经济变量将造成一定的负面影响。保持财政中性,在征收碳税的时候,减少居民或者企业间接税,都可以在减少二氧化碳排放量的同时提高社会福利或者保持社会福利变化不大,实现碳税的双重红利。但是在保持财政中性,在征收碳税的同时减少企业所得税,虽然减少了二氧化碳排放量,居民的社会福利却有了更大程度的下降。