A scenario-based approach to airport security

Mobility, particularly air transport, is vital to the economic stability and growth of a nation. It symbolizes national self-confidence and self-conception. As a result commercial aviation remains a preferred target for attacks by terrorists and other offenders. Security measures intended to render these threats harmless have mostly been introduced in response to specific occurrences, thus allowing the potential attackers to always remain one step ahead. As this approach seems inappropriate for dealing with future security threats, this paper provides a proactive approach to identification of future threats and their coverage by airport security processes and technologies. To meet the requirements of a highly complex and at the same time critical system, such as airport security, a standard scenario process has been enhanced by matrix-based methods of complexity management. This approach allows analysis of threat scenario clusters with respect to the number of potentially effective security measures. The method developed allows proactive detection of weak points in the security architecture and thus reveals potential for improvement.     

The Valuation Approach to Stock Market Impact: Some Tests With SSAP 16 (Current Cost Accounting) Disclosures

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the role of security price models in measuring the impact of accounting information on financial markets. This contrasts with the more common approach of employing security returns. The tests here examine some econometric properties of the price model approach in the context of current cost disclosures required by SSAP 16. Special consideration is given to an important statistical issue likely to be met in the valuation approach, namely the heteroskedasticity of the error term. The evidence suggests that a simple security price model can provide an effective tool in accounting event studies.     

基于GARCH-EVT-Copula的社保基金投资组合风险测度研究

社保基金是社会保障事业健康发展的物质基础,安全性是其投资的首要原则。文章基于GARCH-EVT-Copula方法测度了社保基金投资组合的VaR。首先,基于GARCH、EVT对投资组合中各金融资产收益的边缘分布建模,然后,采用极大似然估计法和Bootstrap方法估计尾部的分布函数,接着,基于Copula方法研究组合中金融资产间的相关结构,最后,运用Monte Carlo方法测度投资组合的VaR。Kupiec检验表明,基于GARCH-EVT-Copula模型测度社保基金投资组合的风险是合适的。     

Reconstructing “behavioural accounting”

This paper adopts a critical stance towards behavioural accounting research methodology. It is argued that most accountants have based their behavioural research on the natural scientific approach, a paradigm whose relevance and suitability for conducting social research has been increasingly questioned in recent years. The author discusses some alternatives to the positivistic research methodology of the natural sciences as a way of developing social science and the implications these have for providing a coherent theoretical and methodological perspective for future “behavioural accounting” research.It is the contention of this paper that the study of the behavioural aspects of accounting has largely failed to develop into a coherent theoretical or practical body of knowledge. In an attempt to overcome this state of affairs, there is an increasing trend to employ organizational and sociological theory as a basis for research, as opposed to psychology and social psychology which informed earlier conceptual thinking and research. While accountants may see this conceptual development as an advancement in that it locates accounting processes in their organizational and social contexts, the way in which it is being conducted is criticized in this paper because, like psychology, it is characterized by an essentially positivistic methodology.This article will first provide a broad overview of the relationship between accounting research and the behavioural sciences. From that overview it will be argued that accounting researchers are unlikely to make much progress by borrowing behavioural scientific concepts unless they develop a deeper understanding of the philosophical underpinnings of these concepts and the competing schools of methodological thought which exist within the behavioural sciences. In an attempt to fill this apparent gap in understanding, the paper will discuss the scientific approach of the natural sciences, why it is felt to be inappropriate for the behavioural sciences and what alternatives exist.     

Weak states and the emerging taxonomy of security in world politics

The dominant approaches to the study of developing countries posit that their basic problem is (under)development. Using independent variables such as culture, colonialism, imperialism, international system structure, ideology and class, many scholars have articulated plausible explanations which have reinforced (under)development as the dependent variable.¹ This approach was hardly challenged until the mid-1980s when some studies began to point to security as a critical, neglected dimension of the Southern problematique.² This article follows in the footsteps of such recent studies by focusing on the implications of the expansion of the notion of security in world politics—or security expansionism—on the weak states of the South.³ The article is divided into three parts. The first examines the traditional notion of security. The second examines the major elements of security expansionism under the following categories: economic security; demographic security; ecological or environmental security; and democratic security. The concluding section summarizes the argument and assesses the significance for North-South relations.     

Self-insight into the cognitive processing of financial information

An experimental setting was formulated where individuals processed financial information and provided estimates of changes in security prices. The ability of subjects to express accurate subjective cue weights was assessed by comparing the subjective weights with objective (statistical) cue weights based on their judgments. The results indicate an encouraging degree of insight, especially when the results are compared with previous studies in psychology, since this group of users of accounting information were able to express indications of relative cue importance which reflected the way they were using the information.     

开征社会保障税需要继续推进工资制度的货币化改革

开征社会保障税是完善我国社会保障制度、加速我国全面建设小康社会进程的有效途径。继续推进现行工资制度的货币化改革是有效地开征社会保障税的前提。应从以下几方面进行工资制度货币化改革:统一思想,提高认识;将公务员特别是领导干部的职务消费作为推进工资货币化的突破口;将现行工资性收入中的非货币性奖金、福利、实物转化为货币。     

Post-audits for managing cyber security investments: Bayesian post-audit using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation

With increasing security spending in organizations, evaluation of the quality and effectiveness of IT security investments has become an important component in managing these projects. The academic literature, however, is largely silent on post-audit of such investments, which is a formal evaluation of IT resource allocation decisions. IT post-audits are considered a useful risk management tool for organizations and are often emphasized in security certifications and standards. To fill this research gap and contribute to practice, we suggest post-auditing of IT security investments using the generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach. This approach does not place stringent conjugate assumptions and can handle high-dimensional Bayesian post-audit inference problems often associated with information security resource allocation decisions. We develop two Bayesian post-audit models using the MCMC method: (1) measuring the effectiveness of an IT security investment using posterior mean score ratios (MSR), and posterior crossover error rates (CER); and (2) measuring the effectiveness through detection of a denial of service (DOS) attack using Bayesian estimation to statistically compare the degree of divergence using the concept of entropy. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed methodology using an email intrusion detection system application.     

Natural disasters and analysts' earnings forecasts

The effects of natural disasters on capital markets have been investigated by limited evidence even though these calamities bring considerable damages or loss of life. To fill this gap, we investigate the impacts of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, on security analysts' earnings forecasts for affected firms in China. We obtain three key findings. First, analysts' optimism significantly decreases for firms located in neighborhood areas. Second, earthquakes do not significantly affect firm earnings and stock returns, thereby indicating that post-earthquake analyst pessimism is not based on rational judgment. Third, media attention promotes irrational pessimism among analysts, and post-earthquake pessimism is a result of heuristics bias attributable to psychological shocks. However, analysts correct the bias after initial irrational forecasts. Taken together, our findings contribute to the broader psychology and economics literature on the effects of natural disasters on analyst forecasts.     

The 1984 global system: Intelligent systems,development stability and international security

In presenting the social intelligence approach to the issue of international security and stability (ISS), the article first examines cautionary models and signals about it. The method is to scan for and process signals in the form of language about security, stability, development and intelligence from a variety of sources to derive perceptions and propositions about the general random trends among these phenomena in 1984. The end result is the perception of the evolution of intelligent social systems, of humanity's learning capability, as part of the 1984 global cultural development crisis. Finally the effect of the interaction of intelligent social systems on their security and stability, including global international security and dynamic stability, is examined.     

Pricing European Options by Numerical Replication: Quadratic Programming with Constraints

The paper considers a regression approach to pricing European options in an incomplete market. The algorithm replicates an option by a portfolio consisting of the underlying security and a risk-free bond. We apply linear regression framework and quadratic programming with linear constraints (input = sample paths of underlying security; output = table of option prices as a function of time and price of the underlying security). We populate the model with historical prices of the underlying security (possibly massaged to the present volatility) or with Monte Carlo simulated prices. Risk neutral processes or probabilities are not needed in this framework.     

Mapping tax compliance: Assemblages,distributed action and practices: A new way of doing tax research

Tax compliance denotes the act of reporting and paying taxes in accordance with the tax laws. Current social science scholarship on tax compliance can almost entirely be divided into behavioural psychology analyses and critical tax studies. This article, which presents two cases of how tax compliance is constructed, challenges the explanatory reaches of today's social science approaches, arguing that an alternative approach to understanding tax compliance is worthwhile exploring. This other choice of approach, inspired by actor–network theory (ANT), adopts a more practice-oriented focus that studies tax compliance where it takes place as well as what it is made of. Consequently, this article argues that tax compliance is a socio-material assemblage and that complying is a distributed action. The article concludes by highlighting how an ANT approach contributes to the further theoretical development of social science studies of taxation.     

国家经济安全审计实施路径研究

国家经济安全审计是指审计机关依赖有效的审计制度对被审单位财政、财务收支和经济活动的真实性、合法性和效益性进行审计的基础上,针对经济安全的关键领域,识别、评估、预警和报告危害经济安全的风险,确保财产权益安全完整的一种审计模式。该模式奠定了审计监督在国家经济安全体系中的基础性地位。创新审计模式及审计策略、变革国家审计体制、构建以审计监督为基础的新型国家经济安全体系是国家经济安全审计的三大实施路径。     

The effects of capital structure change on security prices: A study of exchange offers

This study considers the impact of capital structure change announcements on security prices. Statistically significant price adjustments in firms' common stock, preferred stock and debt related to these announcements are documented and alternative causes for these price changes are examined. The evidence is consistent with both corporate tax and wealth redistribution effects. There is also evidence that firms make decisions which do not maximize stockholder wealth. In addition, a new approach to testing the significance of public announcements on security returns is presented.     

Approximate option valuation for arbitrary stochastic processes

We show how a given probability distribution can be approximated by an arbitrary distribution in terms of a series expansion involving second and higher moments. This theoretical development is specialized to the problem of option valuation where the underlying security distribution, if not lognormal, can be approximated by a lognormally distributed random variable. The resulting option price is expressed as the sum of a Black-Scholes price plus adjustment terms which depend on the second and higher moments of the underlying security stochastic process. This approach permits the impact on the option price of skewness and kurtosis of the underlying stock's distribution to be evaluated.     

A New Approach to Testing Asset Pricing Models: The Bilinear Paradigm

We propose a new approach to estimating and testing asset pricing models in the context of a bilinear paradigm introduced by Kruskal 18 . This approach is both simple and at the same time quite general. As an illustration we apply it to the special case of the arbitrage pricing model where the number of factors is pre-specified. The data appear to be generally in conflict with a five or seven factor representation of the model used by Roll and Ross 30 . When we consider the number of replications of our test and the large number of observations on which it is performed, the frequency with which we reject the three factor APM does not lead us to conclude that this model is unrepresentative of security returns. Further, the rejection of the five and seven factor versions is to be expected if the three factor version is correct. The paradigm gives insight into the appropriate specification of the model and suggests that there may be a small number of economy wide factors that affect security returns.     

The myth of secure computing

Few senior executives pay a whole lot of attention to computer security. They either hand off responsibility to their technical people or bring in consultants. But given the stakes involved, an arm's-length approach is extremely unwise. According to industry estimates, security breaches affect 90% of all businesses every year and cost some $17 billion. Fortunately, the authors say, senior executives don't need to learn about the more arcane aspects of their company's IT systems in order to take a hands-on approach. Instead, they should focus on the familiar task of managing risk. Their role should be to assess the business value of their information assets, determine the likelihood that those assets will be compromised, and then tailor a set of risk abatement processes to their company's particular vulnerabilities. This approach, which views computer security as an operational rather than a technical challenge, is akin to a classic quality assurance program in that it attempts to avoid problems rather than fix them and involves all employees, not just IT staffers. The goal is not to make computer systems completely secure--that's impossible--but to reduce the business risk to an acceptable level. This article looks at the types of threats a company is apt to face. It also examines the processes a general manager should spearhead to lessen the likelihood of a successful attack. The authors recommend eight processes in all, ranging from deciding how much protection each digital asset deserves to insisting on secure software to rehearsing a response to a security breach. The important thing to realize, they emphasize, is that decisions about digital security are not much different from other cost-benefit decisions. The tools general managers bring to bear on other areas of the business are good models for what they need to do in this technical space.     

An unusual cash control procedure

This one-page case describes a self-service merchandising approach in an unusual setting. The cash control procedure described in the case has been used successfully for years, but students overwhelmingly reject it as unworkable or foolish. Classroom discussion of the case can highlight issues of creative thinking, non-value-added activities, cost–benefit analysis, and the psychology of “honest” behavior.     

The incremental information content of replacement cost earnings

The study explores the incremental explanatory power of replacement cost earnings variables (derived from ASR 190 data) with respect to explaining cross sectional differences in security returns. As such, the study is a natural extension of previous research, including analyses of the effect of security returns of ASR 190 data at the time of disclosure, investigations of cross sectional relationships between security returns and historical cost earnings, and studies of multiple signals. The basic finding is that pre-holding gain net income provides no incremental explanatory powerm given knowledge of historical cost earnings. However, the converse does not hold. Taken together, the findings are consistent with the contention that pre-holding gain net income is a garbled version of historical cost earnings. The basic finding is robust under several extensions of the initial research design. The research design incorporates a two-stage approach which permits a determination of the incremental explanatory power of collinear variables. The findings are in contrast to those of a previous study by Easman et al. (1979). The nature of the difference in research design inducing the difference is identified. Potential reasons for the difference in findings are provided.     

An approach to correctness of security and operational business policies

In this paper we have proposed an approach to describing security and operational business policies and verifying their correctness with respect to a set of properties. The method is based on the REA business modeling language to construct definitions of security and operational business rules. Once the rules are created their representations are combined into policies and policy sets using state machines.