COLLECTIVE BARGAINING,AWARENESS OF GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS,AND UNEMPLOYMENT*

We explore the significance of general equilibrium feedback effects for wage‐bargaining. We examine a two‐sector economy and show that if agents only consider labor demand effects low real wages and low unemployment are the consequences. With an intermediate view, i.e., when partial equilibrium effects within a sector are taken into account, high real wages and unemployment result. If all general equilibrium effects are perceived simultaneously, we once again obtain a situation with low wages and unemployment. The results may explain why unemployment is high in some European countries.     

Incidence and Duration of Unemployment Spells: Implications on the Wage Differentials of Part-Time and Full-Time Workers

This article analyzes the extent to which incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells affect the wage differentials between full-time and part-time workers. The estimation results of a sample selectivity bias–adjusted wage equation reveal that high incidences of unemployment are associated with low wages for both full-time and part-time workers. However, the reduction in wages due to incidence of unemployment is larger for full-time workers in high-paid jobs than for their part-time counterparts. Duration of unemployment spells affects full-time and part-time workers differently. In general, longer unemployment spells tend to increase the wages of full-time workers but tend to depress the wages of part-time workers. Although the probability of unemployment is not a factor in explaining the wage differential, the duration of unemployment accounts for a substantial portion (about 66.6% in full sample) of the wage differential that exists between full-time and part-time workers.     

Minimum wages and youth unemployment

This paper constructs a labor search model to explore the effects of minimum wages on youth unemployment. To capture the gradual decline in unemployment for young workers as they age, the standard search model is extended so that workers gain experience when employed. Experienced workers have higher average productivity and lower job finding and separation rates that match wage and worker flow data. In this environment, minimum wages can have large effects on unemployment because they interact with a worker's ability to gain job experience. The increase in minimum wages between 2007 and 2009 can account for a 0.8 percentage point increase in the steady state unemployment rate and a 2.8 percentage point increase in unemployment for 15–24 year old workers in the model parameterized to simulate outcomes of high school educated workers. Minimum wages can also help explain the high rates of youth unemployment in France compared to the United States.     

Testing Equilibrium Models of Regional Disparities

The large and persistent regional disparities of most European economies have been explained as a disequilibrium phenomenon; convergence between backward and successful regions is slow because the equilibrating forces are weak. Recently, two models have emerged where regional disparities are seen as an equilibrium phenomenon; the amenity model, which assumes that high unemployment and low wages reflect favourable living conditions, and the matching model, which views high unemployment as the result of labour market congestion in declining regions. The paper derives some key empirical implications of the models and examines whether the regional pattern of migration, unemployment and wages in Norway conforms with these implications. The results are supportive of the matching model but not of the amenity model.     

UNEMPLOYMENT,LABOR MARKET TRANSITIONS,AND RESIDUAL WAGE DISPERSION

It is commonplace in the debate on Germany's labor market problems to argue that low wage dispersion is a major reason for the high unemployment rate. This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment and residual wage dispersion for individuals with comparable attributes. In the conventional neoclassical point of view, wages are determined by the marginal product of the workers. Accordingly, increases in union minimum wages result in a decline of residual wage dispersion and higher unemployment. A competing view regards wage dispersion as the outcome of search frictions and the associated monopsony power of the firms. Accordingly, an increase in search frictions causes both higher unemployment and higher wage dispersion. The empirical analysis attempts to discriminate between the two hypotheses for West Germany analyzing the relationship between wage dispersion and both the level of unemployment as well as the transition rates between different labor market states. The findings are not completely consistent with either theory. However, as predicted by search theory, one robust result is that unemployment by cells is not negatively correlated with the within‐cell wage dispersion.     

Unemployment duration and workers' wage aspirations in Spain

This paper examines unemployed workers' declared willingness to work for wages lower than the one adequate for their qualification. We analyze which personal and economic characteristics determine this willingness and how it changes along the individuals' unemployment spells. The main results are: (i) Young workers, less educated and those living in regions or times of high unemployment are more willing to accept reduced wages while married women with a working husband are much less willing to do so; (ii) Once the individual fixed effect is controlled for, the willingness to work for reduced wages increases with the duration of unemployment; (iii) Not having access to unemployment benefits increases the probability that initially unwilling workers become willing to accept reduced wages.     

Do good workers hurt bad workers—or is it the other way around?*

I study the effect of worker heterogeneities on wages and unemployment in a directed search model. A worker's productivity in a given firm depends both on his type and on a worker–firm specific component. Firms advertise unconditional wage offers only. The resulting equilibrium is inefficient, with a too high wage premium for high‐type workers, and too few high‐type jobs. This reduces the welfare of high‐type workers. My findings contrast with the findings in the literature on labor market segmentation, where it is argued that the existence of high‐type workers forces down wages and reduces welfare for low‐type workers.     

Aspects of Australian and US Living Standards: The Disappointing Decades 1970–1990*

One theme documents the parallel US and Australian histories of real wages, employment and unemployment since 1950 and notes the break in relativities in the mid 1970s which began with a 30 per cent Australian real wage increase relative to the US. Since then Australian real wages have remained constant, unemployment increased fourfold and the male full-time employment-population ratio fallen 25 per cent The other theme relates to the widening dispersion of male real wages, the large job loss from the middle of the earnings distribution and rapid employment growth at low earnings     

The impact of local unemployment rates on reservation wages and the duration of search for a job.

Evidence about the relationship of local unemployment rates and individuals' reservation wages and duration of search for a job if unemployed is sparse and mixed. This study uses US data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to test whether relatively high local unemployment rates reduce the reservation wages of area residents or increase the duration of search. Labour search theory provides the grounding for the sample selection corrected simultaneous equations econometric model. In neither OLS nor 2SLS results is evidence found that local unemployment rates affect either reservation wages or the duration of search. These results suggest that policies targeted at alleviating unemployment should focus on increasing the demand for labour rather than hope that such policies will be beneficial if pursued in high-unemployment areas because of their effects on labour force characteristics.     

Unemployment, Real Wages and the Money Supply in Australia*

Many observers have attributed the high unemployment experienced in Australia in the 1970s to the rises in real wages which have occurred in the decade. An alternative or additional hypothesis is that unemployment has resulted from policy directed at controlling inflation and that this has been exacerbated by the occurrence of adverse external factors, particularly bul not solely the oil price shocks, which have made inflation more difficult than otherwise to control .
The results of econometric tests suggest that a significant portion of fluctuations in the unemployment rate can be explained by real wage movements, and as well monetary policy through its effects on the real money supply also seems to affect unemployment. Both real wage rises and monetary restrictions appear to have contributed to the jump in unemployment in 1974–75, and since then the continuing high and rising unemployment rate is closely associated with the low growth rate of the real money supply .     

Wage Determination In Australia*

This paper examines whether a stable expectations-augmented Phillips curve exists for Australia. High real wages in the face of continuing high unemployment over the past decade have led to suggestions that the level of unemployment has little effect on wage determination, with the bargaining process taking place between employers and those employees in ‘secure employment’. Results from aggregate data suggest that the level of unemployment is relevant to wage determination. In addition, the impact of overtime on the growth in money wages is consistent with the view that those in secure employment are influenced by labour market conditions.     

The market for labour in Israel

Using annual observations for 1960–89, a complete economic model of the Israel labour market is estimated in which the demand for labour varies inversely with real wages, participation varies directly with the real wages and real wages are explained by a phillips curve in which the natural rate of unemployment is a variable. The model suggests that while wages are far from flexible, unemployment shocks die away fairly rapidly. we were unable to model the behaviour of public sector pay and employment.     

International fragmentation: Boon or bane for domestic employment?

In this paper, we introduce the fairness approach to efficiency wages into a standard model of international fragmentation. This gives us a theoretical framework in which wage inequality and unemployment rates are co-determined and therefore the public concern can be addressed that international fragmentation and outsourcing to low wage countries lead to domestic job-losses. We develop a novel diagrammatic tool to illustrate the main labour market effects of international fragmentation. We also explore how preferences for fair wages and the size of unemployment benefits govern the employment effects of outsourcing and critically assess the role of political intervention that aims to reduce unemployment benefits under internationally fragmented production.     

Involuntary unemployment,macroeconomic policy,and a behavioral model of the firm: Why high real wages need not cause high unemployment

The perspective of modern macroeconomic theory, be it new classical or old and new Keynesian, is that unemployment can be reduced only if real wages are cut. The modern Keynesians, basing themselves upon the microfoundations of efficiency wage theory, argue that real wages cannot and will not be cut by firms for efficiency wage reasons. This generates involuntary unemployment based on a market coordination problem. A behavioral model that contrasts with efficiency wage theory is presented here which suggests that reducing real wages need not affect the marginal cost of labor and, therefore, the number of individuals employed. In the behavioral model, wherein there exists some linearity in the relationship between real wages and working conditions and labor productivity, a lower real wage rate is not a necessary condition for reducing the unemployment rate nor is a higher real wage an obstacle to reducing it. In this scenario, unemployment, to the extent that it is demand-side induced, is not related to movements in real wages. Therefore, restoring full employment after a negative demand shock becomes a matter for demand management, not demand management that must be coordinated with measures designed to reduce real wages.     

Unobserved Heterogeneity,Exit Rates,and Re‐Employment Wages

Exit rates from unemployment and re‐employment wages decline over a period of unemployment, after controlling for worker observable characteristics. We study the role of unobserved heterogeneity in an economy with asymmetric information and directed search. We show that the unique equilibrium is separating and that skilled workers have more job opportunities and higher wages. The composition of the unemployed varies with the duration of unemployment, so average exit rates and wages fall with time. The separating equilibrium relies on performance‐related pay schemes and the ability of firms to commit to renting an input that is complementary to worker skills.     

Migration and imperfect labor markets: Theory and cross-country evidence from Denmark,Germany and the UK

We investigate the labor market effects of immigration in Denmark, Germany and the UK, three countries which are characterized by considerable differences in labor market institutions and welfare states. Institutions such as collective bargaining, minimum wages, employment protection and unemployment benefits affect the way in which wages respond to labor supply shocks, and, hence, the labor market effects of immigration. We employ a wage-setting approach which assumes that wages decline with the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. We find that the wage and employment effects of immigration depend on wage flexibility and the composition of the labor supply shock. In Germany immigration involves only moderate wage, but large unemployment effects, since immigrants are concentrated in labor market segments with low wage flexibility. The reverse is true for the UK and Denmark.     

Regional variations in US consumer response to price changes in home heating fuels: the Northeast and the South

This paper considers the paradox of a consistent net outflow of people from areas of high job creation and wages over the past 20 years and suggests the explanation that different individuals have different motivations for moving. The Labour Force Survey indicates that workers moving for job reasons have migrated to areas of low unemployment and high nominal wages. However, the inflow into such areas has been more than compensated for by an outflow of people moving for non-job reasons. A logit analysis of destination choice indicates that job movers are attracted to areas with high wages but are not affected by high house prices in such areas. In contrast, active non-job movers are deterred from areas of high house prices. Regional house price differences do not influence the destination choice of homemakers or the terminally sick but they do influence the destination choice of retirees. All groups prefer to travel the least distance when moving.     

The rise in UK unemployment: the search for an explanation

This paper suggests that the model used by Layard and Nickell to account for changes in unemployment is highly restrictive in that it imposes cross-equation constraints and neglects labour supply as a source of the increase in unemployment. A less restrictive model, which circumvents some of the problems encountered in the Layard-Nickell approach, is suggested as a tool to account for an unemployment path. Dynamic simulations with the model suggest that labour supply persistence, increased mark-up of prices over wages and low GDP growth have, in particular, contributed to the UK unemployment increase from 1967 to 1983.     

The Beveridge curve and labour market dynamics in Turkey

This article investigates the dynamics of unemployment and vacancy rates in Turkey during the period 1951 to 2008 by means of a Beveridge Curve (BC). The time-series analysis of unemployment and vacancies as well as two other relevant labour market variables, real wages and real labour productivity, strongly suggests inefficiency in the Turkish labour market. A stable long-run relationship between unemployment rate and vacancy rate is found for Turkey, that is, the existence of a negatively sloped BC is verified. The estimated Turkish BC reflects the structural problems and lack of flexibility in the labour market. The modified BC with real wages and labour productivity reveals that labour productivity has no significant effect on unemployment rate whereas wages have positive and significant effects on the same variable.     

A general equilibrium analysis of production subsidy in a Harris-Todaro developing economy: an application to India

Since 1950s India has advocated import substituting industrialization policies to promote its manufacturing sector. The end result was creation of a dual economy: highly favored manufacturing sector with high and rigid wages and neglected agricultural sector with low wages and poverty. Because of the higher wages in the manufacturing sector, the rural laborers migrate to the urban sector, a typical characteristic of the Harris-Todaro developing economy. Realizing this crisis, the Indian government recently initiated policies to boost agricultural production to curb the labor migration and improve the welfare of the rural population. In this study, we develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for India by incorporating Harris-Todaro economic characteristics of unemployment, labor migration, farm dependant population, and labor-intensive agriculture. We use the model to analyze the effects of agricultural production subsidy policies on employment, factor price, output price, output levels, and welfare in agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Our findings show that agricultural production subsidy increases agricultural production, reduces unemployment, raises the wage rate in the agriculture sector, augments the consumption among the rural and urban households, and increases the rental rate for capital in agricultural sector.