美国医改寻解药

9400亿美元医保改革法案 美国总统奥巴马3月23日签署了规模为9400亿美元的医保改革法案。至此,该法案正式生效,成为法律条款,这是奥巴马上任以来取得的最大胜利。美国众议院以219比212的投票结果批准医保改革议案,虽然该法案经奥巴马签署后已经生效,但是参议院民主党议员仍希望对该法案作出一系列调整,如提高保险补贴、降低税收对高成本保险计划的影响等。     

国际巨灾债券市场的新发展：交易规模与结构

巨灾债券（Catastrophe Bond）是巨灾风险证券化的典型产品之一,是国外抵御巨灾风险,化解保险市场系统风险的一项重要的保险创新产品。自1994年Hannover Re首次成功发行以来,国际巨灾债券市场便逐步形成,主要集中在美国、欧洲、日本等保险发达国家与地区。进入21世纪,随着金融衍生工具的不断创新,巨灾风险日益增大,尤其卡特里娜飓风等使全球保险市场遭受重创之后,     

我国核电业保险问题的思考

安全高效发展核电需要更加全面细致地做好安全和风险防范工作,需要做好保险转移及各类风险发生后经济补偿工作。巨大的需求孕育了巨大的核电保险市场。而我国核电保险市场主体形式单一,同质化竞争严重,核保险市场垄断且严重依赖国际市场,现有保险市场已越来越不能满足核电业的发展需求。运用风险管理理论探讨了核电在不同阶段如何利用各种不同的保险险种进行风险转移,全面系统分析现有核电建安保险市场和核保险市场的现状及发展趋势,对自保和相互保险应用于核电保险新模式的优劣势、创设条件、可操作性等问题进行了系统讨论;最后在结论部分得出中国核电业保险改革发展方向应当从两方面入手,一方面中国保险界应着手完善现有核共体保险市场的不足;另一方面中国核电业应积极参与行动起来,创设自保公司以树立理念积累经验,在此基础上,建立整个核电业互保组织,集聚全行业的保障能力;国家应当在相关法律政策方面尽快完善,以促进和保护核电保险市场的健康发展。     

风险自留集团：美国A．R．T．市场的新宠

“9.11”事件后,费率上涨和承保责任缩水导致全球传统保险市场坚挺发展。2002年业务续转进一步促进了费率上涨,保险条款更为严格。其中,美国受影响最大。保险需求者在传统保险市场遭遇的困境推动了非传统风险转移(Alter- native Risk Transfer,A.R.T.)市场的快速发展。根据瑞士再的报告,非传统风险转移市场分为两个环节:非传统风险载体和非传统风险转移产品。非传统风险载体包括自保、自保公司、风险自留集团和共保集团。非传统风险转移产品包括     

台风风险的可保性及其市场供求行为分析

台风灾害每年都给中国东部沿海地区造成巨大的经济损失,但到目前我国保险市场还没有单一责任的台风保险来分担此风险。台风保险是一种准公共物品,如果政府能够介入该保险市场,其可保性则得以提高。对有政府支持的台风保险供求行为博弈分析表明,农户购买台风保险的保险费用占其总产出的百分比在农户和保险公司的决策中至关重要。     

国内外巨灾保险研究述评

巨灾风险可保性研究一、巨灾风险是否具有可保性国外学者从保险精算、保险市场经济学等角度对巨灾风险是否可保的研究,大致有三种结论：一是巨灾风险不可保.Berliner（1982）认为巨灾风险不符合保险精算角度的判断标准;Kunreuther等（1993）和Browne等（2000）认为由于巨灾保险市场供需两方主体行为偏差导致巨灾风险无法在保险市场上有效分散,因而巨灾风险是不可保风险.二是巨灾风险可保.Courbage等（2002）从保险消费角度认为,只要能在保险市场中有效转移巨灾风险损失,则其就是可保风险;Freeman等（2003）则从保险人角度认为,如果保险人能够识别巨灾风险并能厘定费率,则其就是可保风险.     

我国现代物流保险发展滞后的原因分析

现代物流业风险的复杂程度要远大于传统的运输业、仓储业,物流保险成为物流企业转移风险、提升效率的有效手段,但由于法规、险种、理念等原因,我国物流保险市场发展较为滞后。必须规范物流市场环境、营造促进物流保险发展的软环境、加快物流保险专业人才培养、积极推进物流保险创新、建立物流风险预警系统,促进物流保险市场的发展。     

保险公司计算资本要求的风险科目资本占比分析

基于保险公司的实际风险计算资本要求,是保险监管和保险公司内部风险管理的国际共识。我国保险市场属于新兴市场,风险特征与发达市场存在显著差异,在对各类险种的各项风险逐一测算之前,对各项风险的资本占比有一个总体的把握,对于制定合理的资本计算标准十分重要。本文首先基于欧洲和美国保险市场的经验研究这个问题,然后将我国与欧、美保险市场的风险状况,尤其是欧、美模型中所考虑的各项可量化风险,进行对比分析,作为制定资本计算标准的参考。     

潜在保险市场需求转化探讨

影响潜在保险市场需求转化为有效保险需求的原因及因素分析 潜在的保险市场需求是指人们尚未认识到或虽已认识但无法实现的保险需求.这是风险的客观性与人们认识风险的有限性造成的.风险是一种不以人们的主观意识为转移的客观存在,由于人们认识上的缺陷,对一些风险认识不足,防范风险引发的保险需求,也只能以潜在的形式存在.但潜在的保险需求在一定条件下可以转化为有效的保险需求.     

行为保险学系列(十六):保险市场失灵的解决办法

一、保险市场失灵 针对保障型保险，主流保险经济学认为市场失灵的主要原因是逆选择、道德风险和损失外部化问题.行为保险学则认为，保障型保险市场失灵的主要原因，是由消费者的非理性特征，包括低估风险、风险喜好和消费层次性导致的忽略小概率风险或购买意愿缺失，使得保障型保险市场交易量远低于新古典经济学的预测，使保障型保险市场严重偏离有效率的市场均衡状态。     

The Economic Effects of Federal Participation in Terrorism Risk

The catastrophic terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 caused unprecedented insured losses. While the insurance industry covered these losses, it also took swift steps to limit its exposure to such risks in the future. In response to ensuing market dislocations, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) was passed in 2002. The law temporarily requires primary insurers to offer terrorism coverage and creates a federal "backstop" to limit losses on such coverage. In anticipation of the program's scheduled expiration, and to inform debate on its possible extension, this article analyzes market developments in the wake of 9/11 and the passage of TRIA. We find that to date, TRIA has facilitated private sector participation in the market for terrorism insurance by lending structure to an otherwise ill-defined risk. While alternative terrorism risk bearing mechanisms are evolving, none appear ready to replace federal involvement presently. We conclude that a continuation of TRIA for a period of time would enhance U.S. economic performance in the near term. Failing to extend TRIA in the near term would result in decreased economic performance absent another major terrorist attack and greater instability, job loss, and bankruptcy in the event of another attack.     

How Does the Corporate World Cope with Mega‐Terrorism? Puzzling Evidence from Terrorism Insurance Markets

Terrorist attacks that have succeeded abroad since 2001, as well as others that were prevented, indicate that the threat of a large‐scale attack is real and will be with us for a long time. Focusing on the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, this article analyzes the role that insurance can play in providing commercial enterprises with financial protection against the economic consequences of major terrorist attacks. The article begins by explaining the design and key features of terrorism insurance programs operating today in each of the three countries (TRIA in the U.S., Pool Re in the U.K., and Extremus in Germany). The authors then provide a detailed comparative analysis of the evolution of prices and take‐up rates (based on as yet unpublished data), with particular attention to financial institutions. For those who think the U.S. is the most likely target for mega‐terrorism, the findings are somewhat puzzling. On average, for example, companies in the U.S. do not pay even half as much for comparable coverage under TRIA as companies pay in Germany under Extremus, which raises the questions: Is terrorism coverage under the U.S. insurance program now drastically underpriced? If so, what would be the likely consequences of another large‐scale attack in the U.S.? On the demand side, the authors observe a dramatic increase in take‐up rates in the U.S. since 2003, revealing increased corporate concern. By contrast, the market penetration in Germany remains remarkably low. A better understanding of these programs and of the recent evolution of terrorism insurance markets in the U.S. and Europe should help corporate and government decision makers develop more effective protection against the economic consequences of mega‐terrorism.     

An empirical analysis of the economic impact of federal terrorism reinsurance

This paper examines the role of the federal government in the market for terrorism reinsurance. We investigate the stock price response of affected industries to a sequence of 13 events culminating in the enactment of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) of 2002. In the industries most likely to be affected by TRIA—banking, construction, insurance, real estate investment trusts, transportation, and public utilities-the stock price effect was primarily negative. The Act was at best value-neutral for property-casualty insurers because it eliminated the option not to offer terrorism insurance. The negative response of the other industries may be attributable to the Act's impeding more efficient private market solutions, failing to address nuclear, chemical, and biological hazards, and reducing market expectations of federal assistance following future terrorist attacks.     

The Risk‐Sharing Implications of Disaster Insurance Funds

We study the risk‐sharing implications that arise from introducing a disaster insurance fund to the cat insurance market. Such a form of intervention can increase efficiency in the private market, and our design of disaster insurance suggests a prominent role of catastrophe reinsurance. The model predicts buyers will increase their demand in the private market, and the seller will lower prices to such an extent that their revenues decrease upon introduction of disaster insurance. We test two predictions in the context of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA). It is already known that the introduction of TRIA led to negative abnormal returns in the insurance industry. In addition, we show this negative effect is stronger for larger and for low‐risk‐averse firms—two results that are consistent with our model. The seller’s risk aversion plays an important role in quantifying such feedback effects, and we point toward possible distortions in which a firm may even be overhedged upon introduction of disaster insurance.     

Management von Terrorrisiken in Deutschland — eine empirische Analyse

In this article insurance is considered as a means for allocating terrorism risk. After September 11^th, 2001 several countries, among them Germany, Great Britain, and the United States, have intervened on the markets for terrorism insurance. In Germany a primary insurance company was founded by the government and private insurers to supply cover for this peril. Using a full dataset of the demand for terrorism insurance this paper provides an evaluation of the intervention on the market for terrorism insurance in Germany. The results derived are then used to suggest ways to improve the allocation of terrorism risk in Germany.     

Reinsurance for Natural and Man-Made Catastrophes in the United States: Current State of the Market and Regulatory Reforms

U.S. insurers are heavily dependent on global reinsurance markets to enable them to provide adequate primary market insurance coverage. This article reviews the response of the world's reinsurance industry to recent mega-catastrophes and provides recommendations for regulatory reforms that would improve the efficiency of reinsurance markets. The article also considers the supply of insurance and reinsurance for terrorism and makes recommendations for joint public–private responses to insuring terrorism losses. The analysis shows that reinsurance markets responded efficiently to recent catastrophe losses and that substantial amounts of new capital enter the reinsurance industry very quickly following major catastrophic events. Considerable progress has been made in improving risk and exposure management, capital allocation, and rate of return targeting. Insurance price regulation for catastrophe-prone lines of business is a major source of inefficiency in insurance and reinsurance markets. Deregulation of insurance prices would improve the efficiency of insurance markets, enabling markets to deal more effectively with mega-catastrophes. The current inadequacy of the private terrorism reinsurance market suggests that the federal government may need to remain involved in this market, at least for the next several years.     

Catastrophic Risk and Credit Markets

We provide a model of the effects of catastrophic risk on real estate financing and prices and demonstrate that insurance market imperfections can restrict the supply of credit for catastrophe-susceptible properties. Using unique micro-level data, we find that earthquake risk decreased commercial real estate bank loan provision by 22% in California properties in the 1990s, with more severe effects in African–American neighborhoods. We show that the 1994 Northridge earthquake had only a short-term disruptive effect. Our basic findings are confirmed for hurricane risk, and our model and empirical work have implications for terrorism and political perils.     

社会互动对家庭商业保险参与的影响——来自中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据的实证分析

本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,探讨了社会互动对家庭商业保险购买行为的影响。研究发现:社会互动显著提高了家庭商业保险参与的可能性与参与程度,并且在控制了内生性之后,这种促进作用依然显著;同时本文通过金融知识和商业保险信任度等变量验证了社会互动影响家庭商业保险参与行为的两种作用渠道;异质性分析表明,社会互动对于东部和中部地区、中等学历、高收入水平、低参与率社区中家庭的促进作用更大。本文的研究为我国商业保险市场的发展提供了一个新的社会特征视角,重视社会互动的促进作用,加强保险业诚信建设,以此推动我国商业保险业健康快速发展。     

Empirical Evidence for Advantageous Selection in the Commercial Fire Insurance Market

De Meza and Webb (2001) indicated that individuals with a higher degree of risk aversion would demand more insurance and invest in self-protection to reduce risk probability when both the preference type and investment in self-protection are hidden from insurers. They referred to the negative correlation between market insurance and risk type as advantageous selection. However, the relationship between risk type and the degree of risk aversion is debatable in both theoretical and empirical research. This paper therefore proposes that advantageous selection could be supported from another angle by directly examining the relationships that exist among market insurance, self-protection, and risk probability. By focusing on the commercial fire insurance market, information on the purchase of market insurance, investment in self-protection, and fire accident records is hand-collected by means of a unique survey. It is found that firms purchasing market insurance have a greater tendency to channel efforts into self-protection. It is also found that firms expending effort on self-protection are less likely to suffer a fire accident. Furthermore, it is found that firms with commercial fire insurance have less chance of suffering a fire accident than those without such insurance. Each of the above three findings jointly supports the view that advantageous selection could play a critical role in the commercial fire insurance market.     

社会医疗保险、自我保护与商业健康保险

基于消费者保险需求理论,采用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据,分析了社会医疗保险、自我保护与商业健康保险之间的关系。结果表明：社会医疗保险抑制了商业健康保险的发展,显著减少了自我保护支出;自我保护促进了商业健康保险的发展。鉴于此,政府应制定合理的封顶线及报销比例以提供适度的基本医疗保险保障水平,商业保险公司应提供差异化的健康保险以补充社会医疗保险,政府及保险公司应鼓励自我保护投资以促进商业健康保险发展。