Sterilization and the monetary approach to balance of payments analysis

The authorities can sterilize the balance of payments in both the short and long run if domestic capital markets are not fully integrated with those of the rest of the world. The degree of sterilization which the authorities employ is an important determinant of the economy's response to any outside changes.     

A partial adjustment theory of the balance of payments

This paper develops a partial adjustment theory of the balance of payments by incorporating the inter-temporal optimizing behavior of the two agents of the society: the public and the central bank. The central bank is viewed as the government's regulator of domestic credit and its objectives are taken as distinct from and possibly at odds with the public's objectives due to imperfect competition in the political marketplace. The final equation derived here implies that the balance of payments reflects both the active behavior of the central bank concerning foreign reserves and the contribution of the public's flow demand for money.     

关于缓解我国外汇收支顺差问题的政策思考

该文对外汇收支和结售汇的持续大额顺差进行思考和分析,指出其产生源于对外经济发展的结构性因素,因此要系统性地改善外汇收支失衡状况,需要海关、税务、商务部、人民银行和外汇局等多部门共同协调,治理、改善贸易进出口和外汇投资环境,理顺出口、投资和消费三者关系,致力于经济结构调整和发展方式转变。具体可从提高出口档次和引资门槛,以及疏通进口和个人境外投资渠道两方面着手。     

资本流动对中国国际收支的影响

本文从分析中国国际收支失衡局面的形成原因入手,主要探讨了资本流动在国际收支失衡中的决定性作用,指出这种资本流动形式具有较大的潜在不稳定性,在目前人民币汇率弹性还不够充分时,资本项目尤其是对于资本流出的管制不宜过快放开。     

Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy

China׳s external policies, including capital controls, managed exchange rates, and sterilized interventions, constrain its monetary policy options for maintaining macroeconomic stability following external shocks. We study optimal monetary policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates these “Chinese characteristics”. The model highlights a monetary policy tradeoff between domestic price stability and costly sterilization. The same DSGE framework allows us to evaluate the welfare implications of alternative liberalization policies. Capital account and exchange rate liberalization would have allowed the Chinese central bank to better stabilize the external shocks experienced during the global financial crisis.     

河北省国际收支远程申报系统

为满足我国加入WTO后对国际收支统计数据的时效性、准确性提出的更高要求，进一步缩短申报周期，提高国际收支数据信息的利用率，确保《国际收支涉外收入５个工作日申报制度》的顺利实现，我行开发了河北省国际收支远程申报系统，该系统经测试、试运行后已在河北省范围内推广使     

A monetary model of balance of payments: The case of Venezuela

The monetary approach to the balance of payments has gained considerable appeal in the literature and is viewed as being concerned with the long run since it does not analyze the adjustment process of the balance of payments. The model developed in this paper is concerned essentially with the short-run implications of this approach and the model is applied to the case of Venezuela. The results were very encouraging for the monetary approach as the model was able to explain a great part of the fluctuations in the balance of payments of Venezuela during the period of study.     

Capital controls: The case of Argentina

In this paper, the effects of capital controls on the observed nominal interest rate differential, adjusted for exchange rate changes, between Argentina and the United States are examined. A simple model of portfolio behavior is used, which is based on Dooley and Isard's (1980) work. The model separates the component of the observed nominal interest rate differential adjusted for exchange rate changes between the Argentinian rate and the dollar rate, which was due to political and exchange risk premia associated with prospective controls, from the component of the differential due to the existing controls. The empirical analysis shows that both the existing and prospective contrls combined explain about 83 per cent of the nominal interest rate differential.     

The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy: balance of payments

This paper examines the accuracy of forecasts of the international economy made by the OECD. Our large data set, comprising some 5500 pairs of forecasts and outcomes, includes one-, two-, and three-step ahead semi-annual forecasts of eight components of the balance of payments for the G7 economies over a 20-year period. There is considerable variation in the accuracy of these forecasts. Although they are generally superior to naive and time-series predictions, there are some marked exceptions particularly as the forecast horizon lengthens. Forecasting error is overwhelmingly non-systematic. However, our study reveals numerous instances of forecasts which could be improved by a simple linear correction, or by incorporating information contained in known, recent forecast errors. The OECD's forecasts of services and private transfers, and official transfers are cause for particular concern: the accuracy of these forecasts is low, often below that of corresponding time-series forecasts, and rationality tests indicate that they are most prone to inefficiency and inconsistency.     

美国金融风暴的警示——实现国际收支平衡至关重要

近几年,我国国际收支不平衡的情况日益恶化,国际收支顺差的规模也不断扩大,主要体现在外汇储备的快速增长上;而由于我国的外汇储备投资的资产主要集中在美国国债及其他美元债券上,美国金融危机的爆发使得我国的外汇储备资产价值受到了严峻的挑战,文章指出外汇储备大量投资美元资产不仅使得我们承担了来自美国政府、美元汇率的风险,还使得我们不得不为美国的金融危机买单,而且外需拉动型的经济增长模式也不具有可持续性。因此文章建议从扩大内需、降低贸易顺差、控制外商直接投资、治理热钱流入四个方面,多管齐下切实纠正我国国际收支失衡的现状。     

Financial crises and political crises

The simultaneous determination of financial default and political crises is studied in an open economy model. Political crises accompany default in equilibrium because of an information transmission conflict between the government and the public. Multiple equilibria are possible: if foreign lenders are pessimistic about the country's stability, they demand a high interest on the debt, exacerbating distortions and possibly leading to political crisis; but if lenders are optimistic, the cost of the debt falls and political crises disappear. In such a case, international liquidity packages can select the best equilibrium and rule out political crises at negligible cost.     

Capital controls,competitive depreciation,and the technological frontier

This paper considers the internal and external welfare effects of international capital controls and real exchange rate undervaluation in a multi-country setting. I present a dynamic open-economy macro model with an endogenously determined rate of interest on internationally traded assets. All countries produce tradable and nontradable goods using technology that converges over time to a global frontier. The model quantifies the welfare effects of the unilateral implementation of capital controls that depreciate the real exchange rate in economies both already at and converging to the technological frontier. For developing economies, I demonstrate that such government interventions may constitute “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies.     

Effects of sterilising a balance of payments surplus on domestic yields—A formal analysis

This paper examines the effects of sterilising a surplus, using open market operations, on the level and structure of interest rates. The framework adopted is a portfolio balance model of the financial sector. The paper begins by assuming residents hold assets in only three forms—domestic money, domestic bonds, and foreign assets. Initially, the surplus emerges in one of three ways—the foreign interest rate falls, there is an exogenous inflow, or there is an ongoing current account surplus. The analysis is then extended to the case where there is some direct real investment. Finally, the model is refined to allow residents to hold four assets, including new equities.     

Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy

Is there a link between capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a country with a floating currency? Shocks to capital flows into a small open economy lead to volatility in asset prices and credit supply. To lessen the impact of capital flows on financial instability, a central bank finds it optimal to use the domestic interest rate to “manage” the capital account. Capital account restrictions affect the behavior of optimal monetary policy following shocks to the foreign interest rate. Capital controls allow optimal monetary policy to focus less on the foreign interest rate and more on domestic variables.     

当前银行卡项下国际收支交易统计申报制度探究

随着我国涉外经济规模的增长以及对外交往的发展,银行卡作为国际结算的重要工具,以其独有的便利性与安全性得到了广泛的应用。目前,银行卡项下国际收支交易统计申报主要涉及间接申报和汇兑统计申报两项制度,     

Capital regulation and bank balance sheet adjustments: a simultaneous approach

This study examines the balance sheets of banks in 15 Asian countries from 2004 to 2016 to explore how they respond to stricter capital regulation. We consider the simultaneity of balance sheet adjustments. Employing a normalisation method, the study found that Asian banks increased regulatory capital, primarily through retained earnings, and expanded assets over the study period. However, the two-step system Generalised Method of Moments results do not support the positive effect of capital regulation on regulatory capital components adjustments. In addition, stricter capital regulation even induces banks to reduce lending.     

Changes in Malaysia: Capital controls,prime ministers and political connections

During the 1997 Asian currency crisis and resulting imposition of capital controls in Malaysia, evidence from previous studies shows that firms with political connections suffered more during the crisis but benefited more when capital controls were introduced. In the period since then, the evidence shows financial firms with political connections have not performed as well as others since the measures set up to support them have been removed. The study period not only includes the relaxation of capital controls, but also the resignation of Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohammad as prime minister and the handover of control to Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.     

The asset market model of the balance of payments and the exchange rate: A survey of empirical evidence

The purpose of this survey is to assemble and evaluate empirical evidence on the asset market model of the balance of payments and the exchange rate. In Section I the distinctive features of asset market models are compared with earlier Keynesian models. Particular attention is directed to the assumptions and predictions of the monetary model which is a special and well-known case of more general asset market models and thereby serves as a useful benchmark for discussion. In Sections II and III, the empirical evidence under fixed and flexible exchange rates is evaluated. The paper is concluded in Section IV with an assessment of our current state of knowledge.